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Predicting Jets RB Touches


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We all want Breece to be a workhorse, but if Allen is anywhere near as good as advertised, it's hard to imagine him not getting a ton of touches as well as they beat up defenses and keep each other fresh.

How do you think the RB touches get broken down?

80/20?

70/30?

60/40?

Thoughts?

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Hall is a special talent. I think it’s less about carry splits and more about ensuring he gets high value touches - receptions, goal line touches, explosive run opportunities - without being used so much that he gets worn down and beat up.

I haven’t dug in but maybe that’s like 55% of the backfield carries but 80% of the passing game work or something and that gets him to 65-70% of the backfield’s yardage total without getting pounded a ton between the tackles.

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2 minutes ago, derp said:

Hall is a special talent. I think it’s less about carry splits and more about ensuring he gets high value touches - receptions, goal line touches, explosive run opportunities - without being used so much that he gets worn down and beat up.

I haven’t dug in but maybe that’s like 55% of the backfield carries but 80% of the passing game work or something and that gets him to 65-70% of the backfield’s yardage total without getting pounded a ton between the tackles.

Yeah, both guys can catch it out of the backfield.  I should've said touches.

In fact, I will.

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  • AFJF changed the title to Predicting Jets RB Touches
48 minutes ago, AFJF said:

We all want Breece to be a workhorse, but if Allen is anywhere near as good as advertised, it's hard to imagine him not getting a ton of touches as well as they beat up defenses and keep each other fresh.

How do you think the RB touches get broken down?

80/20?

70/30?

60/40?

Thoughts?

If Allen is what folks think he is and what the tweetstorms have been making him out to be?

Hall 60-70%, Allen 25-30%, the rest 5-10% or special circumstances.

Probably won't start the year that way, per se, but I could see it get there quick if Allen looks good in preseason/week 1-2.  Hopefully we see Allen vs. some #1 Defenses in preseason, like Corely, it's one of the more interesting things we might see.

But Hall is very likely still the far and away #1, durability is a concern, but generally NFL coaches don't go easy on RB's or save them for future years, they run them till they drop.  I expect Saleh to do that here, in a year that makes or breaks JD and Saleh's future in NY.

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Everything will come down to how well Allen and Davis are in pass pro.

Breece is a guy you have get 20-25 touches per game. Just gotta see if the younger guys can be trusted to protect the QB, hold onto the ball and net positive on limited touches.

I think the percentages need to fluctuate based on how each game goes. I’d love Allen to be a 4th quarter thumper that helps kill the clock. 

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If you subtract QB rushes last year, Breece had about 64% of the total. Two things should be different this year. First, Breece should be entering the season 100% healthy. Second, the Jets should be running the ball more. Maybe a lot more. It’s that second thing that makes me think Breece’s percentage could be a little lower this year. He’s going to figure prominently as a receiver (my guess: he’ll be second in receptions on the team), and they will want to limit his overall touches for what they hope will be a playoff run. Braelon Allen being a beastly rookie would certainly help. 

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34 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Yeah, both guys can catch it out of the backfield.  I should've said touches.

In fact, I will.

For what it's worth it looks like Breece had 69.3% of the RB/FB carries last year and 65.5% of RB/FB receptions last year. I think the former latter should dip a little and the latter should come up.

I'd also hope the RB carries will go up this coming year with more positive game scripts - they were under 20 a game last year. So hopefully the total team carries denominator goes up a little even if his carries stay pretty flat and they get him more run in the passing game.

He also had that massive outlier 37 carry game to end the season last year. That was 16.6% of his carries last year and 11.5% of the team's. And obviously his health last year was a factor too, so it's not a perfect jumping off point - but it helps a little, or at least it does for me.

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Touches factors in carries and receiving targets. I project Breece to receive a little less rushing attempts in an effort to be available in as many passing situations as possible. Can't have much hope in 2 rookies in pass pro. 

Rushing Snaps 60 (Hall) /40 (everyone else)

Passing Snaps (85/15)

 

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5 hours ago, Plen T said:

Braelon will be vulturing TDs 

If he’s good ball security wise and they can grab some fourth quarter leads it’d be fun to see him come in pretty fresh and just beat up a tired defense late.

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