Thoughts on Offensive Statistics for the 2024 Season.

[rtnelson]

 

Just bored and threw together an estimation of player stats without too much thinking going on.  Kind of looking for how many passing yards/TD/Rushing Yards/TD to spread around through the season.

These stats would put us as an average (Right around #16 ranked) passing offense, top 5 rushing offense based on last year.

Are we expecting more, or less from some of these guys?  Am I way off base with some of these predictions (admittedly novice and thrown together)?

I struggled with predicting actual statistics for Corley, Ruckert, Gipson, and Davis.  I also predicted a sneaky trick play with Breece throwing a TD from around midfield.

I'm trying to be semi-realistic here, as I could always have AR8 have an MVP like season and spread the love to all the guys, but that's not something I would predict.

Any thoughts?

[Claymation]

 

[Warfish]

2019 - 31st/32nd
2020 - 32nd/32nd
2021 - 28th/26th
2022 - 29th/25th
2023 - 29th/31st

Let's start with "be alot better than this".

[Claymation]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

2019 - 31st/32nd
2020 - 32nd/32nd
2021 - 28th/26th
2022 - 29th/25th
2023 - 29th/31st

Let's start with "be alot better than this".

And you don't think they will?

[Warfish]

Just now, Claymation said:

And you don't think they will?

Did you think this time last year they'd finish 31st?

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Did you think this time last year they'd finish 31st?

Not until the 5th play of the season, but uhhhh, yep, sure did. 

[slats]

Lazard had 311 yards receiving last year as the #2 WR, I don’t see him hitting 500 as WR #4 or 5. Breece had 591 yards, on the second most targets on the team, with garbage throwing the ball - I think he’ll continue to be #2 in targets, and see increased production from better QB play. Williams and Corley are tough to figure, but I’d like to think Williams will be closer to 800 yards than 500. I think Conklin will have more catches than Williams, but Williams will have more yards. Corley has to win the job and the trust of Rodgers, and how all those guys play (or stay healthy) will impact what Gipson, Ruckert, and Brownlee provide. I’m pretty excited about Allen, too, but projecting 950 all purpose yards from a backup RB seems high. Breece, otoh, could have an MVP type season with Rodgers at QB. 

[The Crusher]

1 minute ago, slats said:

Lazard had 311 yards receiving last year as the #2 WR, I don’t see him hitting 500 as WR #4 or 5. Breece had 591 yards, on the second most targets on the team, with garbage throwing the ball - I think he’ll continue to be #2 in targets, and see increased production from better QB play. Williams and Corley are tough to figure, but I’d like to think Williams will be closer to 800 yards than 500. I think Conklin will have more catches than Williams, but Williams will have more yards. Corley has to win the job and the trust of Rodgers, and how all those guys play (or stay healthy) will impact what Gipson, Ruckert, and Brownlee provide. I’m pretty excited about Allen, too, but projecting 950 all purpose yards from a backup RB seems high. Breece, otoh, could have an MVP type season with Rodgers at QB. 

My wildcard for shocking the world is Gipson. If Aaron stays healthy the stars may just align for Gipson. 

[bicketybam]

1 minute ago, The Crusher said:

My wildcard for shocking the world is Gipson. If Aaron stays healthy the stars may just align for Gipson. 

Gippy!

[rtnelson]

1 minute ago, slats said:

Lazard had 311 yards receiving last year as the #2 WR, I don’t see him hitting 500 as WR #4 or 5. Breece had 591 yards, on the second most targets in the team, with garbage throwing the ball - I think he’ll continue to be #2 in targets, and see increased production from better QB play. Williams and Corley are tough to figure, but I’d like to think Williams will be closer to 800 yards than 500. I think Conklin will have more catches than Williams, but Williams will have more yards. Corley has to win the job and the trust of Rodgers, and how all those guys play (or stay healthy) will impact what Gipson, Ruckert, and Brownlee provide. I’m pretty excited about Allen, too, but projecting 950 all purpose yards from a backup RB seems high. Breece, otoh, could have an MVP type season with Rodgers at QB. 

On Allen, I think he does end up getting more rushing carries than we think.  However you're likely correct about the RCV yards I was just thinking "He'll be on the field quite a bit, and Rodgers likes to dump off to the RB."

As for Breece, I fully think he is capable of having the best statistical season in the league, although I think having Allen being able to actually be productive means we don't need to force feed him. 

[The Crusher]

Just now, bicketybam said:

Gippy!

not my finest moment. 

[Warfish]

2 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Not until the 5th play of the season, but uhhhh, yep, sure did. 

Me too my friend, me too.

Point being, you never know, so lets start with "be better than the sh*tshow we've been since the start of the JD Era".

We should be expecting 4,000+/30 with under 10 INT's from Rodgers.

We should be expecting 1,100+ and 8+ TD's from Wilson

We should be expecting 1,000+ rushing and 1,500+ total yards from Hall.

We should be expecting Allen and Williams to put up good #2 RB/#2WR type numbers.

These aren't even really that big of numbers or some kind of unreasonable expectation tbqh. 

[bicketybam]

1 minute ago, The Crusher said:

not my finest moment. 

The Gipper?

[slats]

1 minute ago, rtnelson said:

On Allen, I think he does end up getting more rushing carries than we think.  However you're likely correct about the RCV yards I was just thinking "He'll be on the field quite a bit, and Rodgers likes to dump off to the RB."

As for Breece, I fully think he is capable of having the best statistical season in the league, although I think having Allen being able to actually be productive means we don't need to force feed him. 

My feeling is that Wilson and Breece are legitimate NFL star quality players, and that Rodger’s history involves feeding his #1 WR and #1 RB in the passing game. I expect them to want to get the ball to Allen, but also that it will be hard to take Breece off the field. I’ve said it since they drafted the 6’1”, 230lb RB; I’d like to see more two-RB sets this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we did. 

[bicketybam]

2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Me too my friend, me too.

Point being, you never know, so lets start with "be better than the sh*tshow we've been since the start of the JD Era".

We should be expecting 4,000+/30 with under 10 INT's from Rodgers.

We should be expecting 1,100+ and 8+ TD's from Wilson

We should be expecting 1,000+ rushing and 1,500+ total yards from Hall.

We should be expecting Allen and Williams to put up good #2 RB/#2WR type numbers.

These aren't even really that big of numbers or some kind of unreasonable expectation tbqh. 

Only one QB last season threw for over 4,000 yards, 30 or more TD's and less than 10 Int's. ONE. 

[rtnelson]

1 minute ago, slats said:

My feeling is that Wilson and Breece are legitimate NFL star quality players, and that Rodger’s history involves feeding his #1 WR and #1 RB in the passing game. I expect them to want to get the ball to Allen, but also that it will be hard to take Breece off the field. I’ve said it since they drafted the 6’1”, 230lb RB; I’d like to see more two-RB sets this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we did. 

Having Breece and Allen on the field at the same time I think is something we'll see a decent amount this year.  At least I hope so.

[rtnelson]

4 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Only one QB last season threw for over 4,000 yards, 30 or more TD's and less than 10 Int's. ONE. 

Dallas' 36 team passing TD led the league last year.

[Warfish]

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), nine threw for over 4,000 yards, and the average passing yards was 4,067.

Expecting 4,000 yards from a top starting QB in this era isn't expecting anything most top starting QB's can accomplish.

Note, that average was dragged down by Bryce Youngs pathetic performance last year as well.  Exclude him, it's higher.

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), only 4 threw for over 30 TD's.  The average was 26.

So ok, I'll revise my expectations to 26 TD's then, the average number of TD's by QB's who started most of the season.

Same on the INT side.  Of those 14 who started 16 or 17 games, only 5 threw 10 or less INT's.

So despite constantly hearing that Rodgers is a "top 5 QB", I'll revise my expectations down, the the average # of INT's by this group, 12.

And again, all these average numbers are dragged down by Young's rough year.

So I expect Rodgers to throw for 4,000+ yards, with 26 or more TD's and 12 or less INT's.

If you're not close to this in your own expectations, I guess you A. expect Rodgers to miss time and/or B. expect Rodgers not to play at his historical levels of play like a "top 5" QB.

P.S. Rodgers last year healthy?  

2021.  4,115 yards, 37 TD's, 4 INT's.

Even while hurt he threw (in 2022) for 3,700 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's.

So spare me the low expectations.  We traded to get a top 5 guy, I expect him to perform like a top 5 guy.

[slimjasi]

22 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

My wildcard for shocking the world is Gipson. If Aaron stays healthy the stars may just align for Gipson. 

Have the same feeling 

Rodgers seems to like him and he can fly 

[rtnelson]

4 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), nine threw for over 4,000 yards, and the average passing yards was 4,067.

Expecting 4,000 yards from a top starting QB in this era isn't expecting anything most top starting QB's can accomplish.

Note, that average was dragged down by Bryce Youngs pathetic performance last year as well.  Exclude him, it's higher.

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), only 4 threw for over 30 TD's.  The average was 26.

So ok, I'll revise my expectations to 26 TD's then, the average number of TD's by QB's who started most of the season.

Same on the INT side.  Of those 14 who started 16 or 17 games, only 5 threw 10 or less INT's.

So despite constantly hearing that Rodgers is a "top 5 QB", I'll revise my expectations down, the the average # of INT's by this group, 12.

And again, all these average numbers are dragged down by Young's rough year.

So I expect Rodgers to throw for 4,000+ yards, with 26 or more TD's and 12 or less INT's.

If you're not close to this in your own expectations, I guess you A. expect Rodgers to miss time and/or B. expect Rodgers not to play at his historical levels of play like a "top 5" QB.

P.S. Rodgers last year healthy?  

2021.  4,115 yards, 37 TD's, 4 INT's.

Even while hurt he threw (in 2022) for 3,700 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's.

So spare me the low expectations.  We traded to get a top 5 guy, I expect him to perform like a top 5 guy.

I'm going off the expectation that Breece and Allen will hog some TD's in the RZ this year, as well as put enough yards on the ground that we can lower yardage expectations as well at least somewhat.  I'm not sure I would predict another MVP level season which 37-4 would absolutely be.  But I don't think Rodgers will throw more than 10 INT's either.  I just don't expect as many TD's.  I think around 26 TD and 6-7 INT's would be my prediction.  I believe this is going to be a running team, with an efficient passing attack.

[Jetsfan80]

Garrett Wilson will lead the NFL in receiving yards this season (1,700+ maybe?) and at least be close to the lead in targets (170+).  Mike Williams will be a disappointment (under 500 yards) but it won't matter.

Just like last year Breece Hall will lead the NFL in receiving catches and targets by an RB as well as total touches.

But here's the stat I'll be most excited about:  

• Zach Wilson:  0 passing attempts

[All Gas, No Gase]

44 minutes ago, bicketybam said:

Gippy!

[bicketybam]

16 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), nine threw for over 4,000 yards, and the average passing yards was 4,067.

Expecting 4,000 yards from a top starting QB in this era isn't expecting anything most top starting QB's can accomplish.

Note, that average was dragged down by Bryce Youngs pathetic performance last year as well.  Exclude him, it's higher.

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), only 4 threw for over 30 TD's.  The average was 26.

So ok, I'll revise my expectations to 26 TD's then, the average number of TD's by QB's who started most of the season.

Same on the INT side.  Of those 14 who started 16 or 17 games, only 5 threw 10 or less INT's.

So despite constantly hearing that Rodgers is a "top 5 QB", I'll revise my expectations down, the the average # of INT's by this group, 12.

And again, all these average numbers are dragged down by Young's rough year.

So I expect Rodgers to throw for 4,000+ yards, with 26 or more TD's and 12 or less INT's.

If you're not close to this in your own expectations, I guess you A. expect Rodgers to miss time and/or B. expect Rodgers not to play at his historical levels of play like a "top 5" QB.

P.S. Rodgers last year healthy?  

2021.  4,115 yards, 37 TD's, 4 INT's.

Even while hurt he threw (in 2022) for 3,700 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's.

So spare me the low expectations.  We traded to get a top 5 guy, I expect him to perform like a top 5 guy.

You don't even expect Rodgers to last the season 😅 Who dafuq you kidding?

 

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Did you think this time last year they'd finish 31st?

Zach Wilson will be a backup with Denver, Tim Boyle is fighting to make the Texans and Trevor Siemian is out of football, they were the signal callers last year. For the Jets to reach that level of inefficiency, Rodgers and Taylor will have to go down. Can they, sure. But not that likely. 

[Bronx]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

2019 - 31st/32nd
2020 - 32nd/32nd
2021 - 28th/26th
2022 - 29th/25th
2023 - 29th/31st

Let's start with "be alot better than this".

We are believers! 

[Warfish]

20 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Quote

Did you think this time last year they'd finish 31st?

Zach Wilson will be a backup with Denver, Tim Boyle is fighting to make the Texans and Trevor Siemian is out of football, they were the signal callers last year. For the Jets to reach that level of inefficiency, Rodgers and Taylor will have to go down. Can they, sure. But not that likely. 

"This time last year" Rodgers was the starter and no one was predicting injury at all, much less 4 plays in. 

Zach and Boyle were not what Jets fans, yourself almost assuredly included, were basing their predictions on, this time last year.

So again, yes, today, I expect much better than 31st.

Same as this time last year I expected much better than 31st.

Yet where did we end up, eh?

In before "Tyrod Taylor is a great QB, we'll be fine!" lol.

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

lets start with "be better than the sh*tshow we've been since the start of the JD Era".

We should be expecting 4,000+/30 with under 10 INT's from Rodgers.

 

Literally one QB in the NFL last year had 30+ TDs and under 10 INTs: Dak Prescott (36/9).

Note how even that had to happen: he plays his home games in a dome, with 2 games apiece against 3 of 2023's tomato can defenses in his division. And 5 of those 6 games Dallas would have still won if he only threw 1 touchdown. 18 TDs 2 INTs in 6 games against his sucky-defense division rivals fielding the #26, #30, and #32 defenses, respectively (Washington and Philadelphia had the #32 and #31 pass defenses, no less). And it's not like Dak isn't a top QB aside from that (except the playoffs, lol). 

BTW nobody accomplished it in 2022, and before Prescott the last QB with 30+ TDs and under 10 INTs in a season? Aaron Rodgers in 2021 when he was the NFL MVP again. 

So anyway, your minimum baseline of expectations is being literally the single best QB in the NFL?

[Claymation]

45 minutes ago, Warfish said:

"This time last year" Rodgers was the starter and no one was predicting injury at all, much less 4 plays in. 

Zach and Boyle were not what Jets fans, yourself almost assuredly included, were basing their predictions on, this time last year.

So again, yes, today, I expect much better than 31st.

Same as this time last year I expected much better than 31st.

Yet where did we end up, eh?

In before "Tyrod Taylor is a great QB, we'll be fine!" lol.

I don't know what I thought last year, to be honest. But I didn't think Aaron would go down as quickly as he did and for the season. 

And I never said Tyrod is a great QB, but he is definitely better than Manny, Moe and Jack.

[The Voice of Reason]

5 hours ago, rtnelson said:

 

Just bored and threw together an estimation of player stats without too much thinking going on.  Kind of looking for how many passing yards/TD/Rushing Yards/TD to spread around through the season.

These stats would put us as an average (Right around #16 ranked) passing offense, top 5 rushing offense based on last year.

Are we expecting more, or less from some of these guys?  Am I way off base with some of these predictions (admittedly novice and thrown together)?

I struggled with predicting actual statistics for Corley, Ruckert, Gipson, and Davis.  I also predicted a sneaky trick play with Breece throwing a TD from around midfield.

I'm trying to be semi-realistic here, as I could always have AR8 have an MVP like season and spread the love to all the guys, but that's not something I would predict.

Any thoughts?

Receiving is spelled like this and not 'Recieving'.. That was my first thought... 

Second thought is everyone is being way too conservative with what this offense is going to do

[The Voice of Reason]

3 hours ago, Warfish said:

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), nine threw for over 4,000 yards, and the average passing yards was 4,067.

Expecting 4,000 yards from a top starting QB in this era isn't expecting anything most top starting QB's can accomplish.

Note, that average was dragged down by Bryce Youngs pathetic performance last year as well.  Exclude him, it's higher.

Of the QB's who started 16 or 17 games last year (14 in total), only 4 threw for over 30 TD's.  The average was 26.

So ok, I'll revise my expectations to 26 TD's then, the average number of TD's by QB's who started most of the season.

Same on the INT side.  Of those 14 who started 16 or 17 games, only 5 threw 10 or less INT's.

So despite constantly hearing that Rodgers is a "top 5 QB", I'll revise my expectations down, the the average # of INT's by this group, 12.

And again, all these average numbers are dragged down by Young's rough year.

So I expect Rodgers to throw for 4,000+ yards, with 26 or more TD's and 12 or less INT's.

If you're not close to this in your own expectations, I guess you A. expect Rodgers to miss time and/or B. expect Rodgers not to play at his historical levels of play like a "top 5" QB.

P.S. Rodgers last year healthy?  

2021.  4,115 yards, 37 TD's, 4 INT's.

Even while hurt he threw (in 2022) for 3,700 yards, 26 TD's, 12 INT's.

So spare me the low expectations.  We traded to get a top 5 guy, I expect him to perform like a top 5 guy.

5000 pass yards... And 40/5 td/int... GW gets 1750 and 160 receptions... Breece hits 1700 yards and 600 receiving... 

Mike Williams has 700 yards and 10 tds.. 

Lazard has 400 yards and 8 tds... 

Conklin has 7 tds and 500 yards 

This offense will score historic numbers for the Jets... 

Because why not and he can... 

[Doggin94it]

4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Me too my friend, me too.

Point being, you never know, so lets start with "be better than the sh*tshow we've been since the start of the JD Era".

We should be expecting 4,000+/30 with under 10 INT's from Rodgers.

We should be expecting 1,100+ and 8+ TD's from Wilson

We should be expecting 1,000+ rushing and 1,500+ total yards from Hall.

We should be expecting Allen and Williams to put up good #2 RB/#2WR type numbers.

These aren't even really that big of numbers or some kind of unreasonable expectation tbqh. 

Every last one of these are reasonable

[Larz]

“On paper” it’s the best offense this team has had since ‘68.

Vinny was fun to watch, Rex’ ground and pound helped win games, fitzmagic throwing up prayers to Marshall somehow worked, but the QB, WR, RB, LT group this year is elite. (Yes I know stay healthy blah blah blah)

The difference between this year and last year is depth. The backup QB, WR4, RB2 and swing tackle this year is competitive with what the Jets have started in recent years. 
 

I think it’s safe to say the big dogs, Rodgers, Wilson and Hall could all have historic seasons and set numerous Jets records. 
 

except one eyes record of yards per reception. That’s out of reach in the modern NFL 

[rtnelson]

2 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Receiving is spelled like this and not 'Recieving'.. That was my first thought... 

Second thought is everyone is being way too conservative with what this offense is going to do

I think the offense is going to be very good.   Good at grinding the game down and keeping the clock running.  Shorter games equals less points total.  I can go off and predict Rodgers having an MVP season but I don't see it.  A lot of people will predict guy has X yards, X TD's and then when you add all of that up it equates to Rodgers having a 6,000 yard 50TD season.  In my "prediction" Rodgers would be ranked around 14th last year in Yards/TDs.  That doesn't mean he would be the "14th best QB" it just means it's where his stats land.  If you look at RTG or efficiency, I think he'll be among the best.

[nycdan]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Literally one QB in the NFL last year had 30+ TDs and under 10 INTs: Dak Prescott (36/9).

Note how even that had to happen: he plays his home games in a dome, with 2 games apiece against 3 of 2023's tomato can defenses in his division. And 5 of those 6 games Dallas would have still won if he only threw 1 touchdown. 18 TDs 2 INTs in 6 games against his sucky-defense division rivals fielding the #26, #30, and #32 defenses, respectively (Washington and Philadelphia had the #32 and #31 pass defenses, no less). And it's not like Dak isn't a top QB aside from that (except the playoffs, lol). 

BTW nobody accomplished it in 2022, and before Prescott the last QB with 30+ TDs and under 10 INTs in a season? Aaron Rodgers in 2021 when he was the NFL MVP again. 

So anyway, your minimum baseline of expectations is being literally the single best QB in the NFL?

FWIW Rodgers almost always had <10 INTs.  He had 30+ TDs eight times and always had less than 10 INTs in those years.  So while it's uncommon in the NFL, it's surprisingly common for Rodgers.  Yes, he's older and coming off injury, but honestly, it would not surprise me if he did it this year.

If nothing else, I will be very disappointed if he doesn't grab the season record for Passing TDs.  I mean...it's not that hard.

 

[rangerous]

On 8/22/2024 at 12:29 PM, rtnelson said:

 

Just bored and threw together an estimation of player stats without too much thinking going on.  Kind of looking for how many passing yards/TD/Rushing Yards/TD to spread around through the season.

These stats would put us as an average (Right around #16 ranked) passing offense, top 5 rushing offense based on last year.

Are we expecting more, or less from some of these guys?  Am I way off base with some of these predictions (admittedly novice and thrown together)?

I struggled with predicting actual statistics for Corley, Ruckert, Gipson, and Davis.  I also predicted a sneaky trick play with Breece throwing a TD from around midfield.

I'm trying to be semi-realistic here, as I could always have AR8 have an MVP like season and spread the love to all the guys, but that's not something I would predict.

Any thoughts?

okay, 47 tds should yield 19.4 ppg.  add in some fgs and it's easy to see their ppg around 23.  that's way better than it has been for many seasons and should get them 10+ wins.