Passing Numbers Way Down Through 2 Weeks

[slimjasi]

There has been some discussion about this topic here, but I thought it deserved its own thread. Basically, passing is way down across the board. Touchdowns, yards, rookie QBs with zero passing TDs through 2 weeks, etc. 
 

 

 

Do we think this has just been a weird two weeks or have defenses closed the gap on passing offenses? 

 

[Dunnie]

There has been some discussion about this topic here, but I thought it deserved its own thread. Basically, passing is way down across the board. Touchdowns, yards, rookie QBs with zero passing TDs through 2 weeks, etc. 
 
 
 
Do we think this has just been a weird two weeks or have defenses closed the gap on passing offenses? 
 

Offense about to get even more lopsided


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[Matt39]

QB desert at the moment 

[Integrity28]

Injuries are piling up to star players, too. It’s because weeks 1-4 are the new preseason for starters. It’s bad for the shield/product. They don’t care. The league really needs to contract the regular season and create an incentive for preseason to be meaningful. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

QB desert at the moment 

Looking at qb leaders of 2020, you had Brady, younger rodgers, Russell, Big Ben, younger cousins, tannehill, Deshaun watson, Matt Ryan and brees.  Most newer qbs aren’t in this class.  

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Injuries are piling up to star players, too. It’s because weeks 1-4 are the new preseason for starters. It’s bad for the shield/product. They don’t care. The league really needs to contract the regular season and create an incentive for preseason to be meaningful. 

NFL:  “Best I can do is add another week to the regular season and shorten the preseason another week.”

[Integrity28]

3 hours ago, slimjasi said:

There has been some discussion about this topic here, but I thought it deserved its own thread. Basically, passing is way down across the board. Touchdowns, yards, rookie QBs with zero passing TDs through 2 weeks, etc. 
 

 

 

Do we think this has just been a weird two weeks or have defenses closed the gap on passing offenses? 

 

The current CBA is responsible for basically softening the sport, by eliminating what we knew as a preseason. Full contact, stats got reps, all of it.

I think it was agreed on sometime in the 2018-2020 time window. What we are likely seeing with this data is the early years were led by the quarterback play of seasoned pros who have spent their careers participating in proper off-seasons.

The numbers taper, the further we get from the inception date, as we see veterans retire and or get replaced by new players, who’ve never completed a proper preseason. So, there’s a natural aging out of talent and experience, but also the impact of an insufficient preseason for the younger players cycling in.

[kdels62]

20 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

The current CBA is responsible for basically softening the sport, by eliminating what we knew as a preseason. Full contact, stats got reps, all of it.

I think it was agreed on sometime in the 2018-2020 time window. What we are likely seeing with this data is the early years were led by the quarterback play of seasoned pros who have spent their careers participating in proper off-seasons.

The numbers taper, the further we get from the inception date, as we see veterans retire and or get replaced by new players, who’ve never completed a proper preseason. So, there’s a natural aging out of talent and experience, but also the impact of an insufficient preseason for the younger players cycling in.

Yeah but will you care in week 5 what happened in week 2? The truth is that you won’t or rather most people won’t . And the owners know that so they don’t care.

As for the lack of passing offense, I think the NFL just figured out the scheme and the defenders got better. LBers running in the 4.5s-low 4.6s are commonplace now. Safeties have CB coverage skills and CBs are 6-3 and faster than ever. NFL strategies go in waves. Pass offenses boom which leads to defensive adjustments which leads to ground and pound offenses which lead to bigger defenses which lead to quick throw offenses exploding and it just goes from there. The only exclusions are elite QBs and elite HCs. They transcend it all. 

[Dunnie]

The current CBA is responsible for basically softening the sport, by eliminating what we knew as a preseason. Full contact, stats got reps, all of it.
I think it was agreed on sometime in the 2018-2020 time window. What we are likely seeing with this data is the early years were led by the quarterback play of seasoned pros who have spent their careers participating in proper off-seasons.
The numbers taper, the further we get from the inception date, as we see veterans retire and or get replaced by new players, who’ve never completed a proper preseason. So, there’s a natural aging out of talent and experience, but also the impact of an insufficient preseason for the younger players cycling in.

Also .. there are more running QB hijinx ... People have been saying for some time now the quality of QB play has been nose diving for a decade. Maholmes is a unicorn ... Yet all the coaches think they can find an imitation. Go figure. Headless chicken running only works for the select few. Off platform throwing is not something to aspire to ... It's something a few guys can do it naturally ... The other guys ... How about perfecting reading defenses and mastering playing from the pocket.

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[Irish Jet]

Quite glad tbh. The inflated offensive stats were just gross at a point. Every other game was a shootout. 

[Falco21]

QB talent has taken a nosedive. Yes you will always have guys like Mahomes and Josh Allen, but in general the qb talent is far down. 

You got rookies starting left and right and you got guys with high expectations that, in reality, had years that look more like anomalies than the norm. 

[T0mShane]

—Fangio brought back two high safety defense. QBs read two-high, they insta-check to something low simply because that’s what the math tells them to do. The QBs prospering right now simply throw over the top of these safeties because safeties mostly suck. Derek Carr, Kyler, Geno, Jordan Love test defenses deep. Everyone else is dropping it off. 

—Shanahan system coaches respond with horizontal pass game, reliance on explosives in run game. Shanahan produces high YPAs, but even that’s on horizontal patterns.

—underrated factor: the way the game is reffed and legislated now is absurd because of innocuous procedure penalties doing the work of 5- and 10- yard sacks, kneecapping every attempt at sustaining drives.

—Dearth of OL talent in the pipeline because college is all zone blocking now. 
 

—Dearth of QBs because everyone in high school and college wants mobile QBs and if you’re a running QB in high school, you don’t have to go through progressions. 
 

—Going to get worse because of NIL and 3-4-5 star QBs are incentivized to transfer to worse programs instead of sticking it out and developing at a good program. 

[Raideraholic]

G Minshew mvp ?    lol he sucks. https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player

[Sarge4Tide]

The critical mass of insanely athletic pass rushers has finally arrived with every team having 2-3 DEs, DTs, LBs who can pressure the QB all game long. 

 

Here are the current NFL sack leaders.  It's an incredible list of high draft picks, QB killers and, for some reason, Jason Pinnock

 

RK	Name
1	Aidan HutchinsonDET
2	Pat Jones IIMIN
2	Keion WhiteNE
4	Harold Landry IIITEN
4	Maxx CrosbyLV
4	Dennis GardeckARI
4	Will McDonald IVNYJ
4	Greg RousseauBUF
4	Alontae TaylorNO
10	Odafe OwehBAL
11	Von MillerBUF
11	Kyle Van NoyBAL
11	DeMarcus LawrenceDAL
11	Eric KendricksDAL
11	Mario Edwards Jr.HOU
11	T.J. WattPIT
11	Joey BosaLAC
11	Trey HendricksonCIN
11	Myles GarrettCLE
11	Andrew Van GinkelMIN
11	Clelin FerrellWSH
11	Darrell TaylorCHI
11	Zack BaunPHI
11	Nick BosaSF
11	Jonathon CooperDEN
11	Jason PinnockNYG
11	Boye MafeSEA
11	Travon WalkerJAX
11	Gervon Dexter Sr.CHI

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Quite glad tbh. The inflated offensive stats were just gross at a point. Every other game was a shootout. 

True, but we’re not even really seeing good defense.  Mostly just a lot of bad offense.  The overall quality is way down thru the first 2 weeks.  

[Integrity28]

13 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Yeah but will you care in week 5 what happened in week 2? The truth is that you won’t or rather most people won’t . And the owners know that so they don’t care.

As for the lack of passing offense, I think the NFL just figured out the scheme and the defenders got better. LBers running in the 4.5s-low 4.6s are commonplace now. Safeties have CB coverage skills and CBs are 6-3 and faster than ever. NFL strategies go in waves. Pass offenses boom which leads to defensive adjustments which leads to ground and pound offenses which lead to bigger defenses which lead to quick throw offenses exploding and it just goes from there. The only exclusions are elite QBs and elite HCs. They transcend it all. 

I know all this. I was just explaining the statistical correlation to the CBA. 

[Integrity28]

9 hours ago, Dunnie said:

Also .. there are more running QB hijinx ... People have been saying for some time now the quality of QB play has been nose diving for a decade. Maholmes is a unicorn ... Yet all the coaches think they can find an imitation. Go figure. Headless chicken running only works for the select few. Off platform throwing is not something to aspire to ... It's something a few guys can do it naturally ... The other guys ... How about perfecting reading defenses and mastering playing from the pocket.

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The running is necessitated by the lack of development in the passing game.

[funaz]

lots of talk about pre-season, that's not it. Although everyone wants to talk about how soft the sport has become, the fact is the defenses have caught up to the offensive schemes. 

It's now time for the offenses to adapt, and evolve which may take a few seasons.

[BreeceHallofFame]

7 hours ago, T0mShane said:

—Fangio brought back two high safety defense. QBs read two-high, they insta-check to something low simply because that’s what the math tells them to do. The QBs prospering right now simply throw over the top of these safeties because safeties mostly suck. Derek Carr, Kyler, Geno, Jordan Love test defenses deep. Everyone else is dropping it off. 

—Shanahan system coaches respond with horizontal pass game, reliance on explosives in run game. Shanahan produces high YPAs, but even that’s on horizontal patterns.

—underrated factor: the way the game is reffed and legislated now is absurd because of innocuous procedure penalties doing the work of 5- and 10- yard sacks, kneecapping every attempt at sustaining drives.

—Dearth of OL talent in the pipeline because college is all zone blocking now. 
 

—Dearth of QBs because everyone in high school and college wants mobile QBs and if you’re a running QB in high school, you don’t have to go through progressions. 
 

—Going to get worse because of NIL and 3-4-5 star QBs are incentivized to transfer to worse programs instead of sticking it out and developing at a good program. 

Eh, if you see it private QB schools see it and will train their students appropriately.