Shotgun Runs - A Breakdown

[Mr. Rogers]

Before I launch in, as I've said before, I apologize but brevity is not my strong suit.

Chances are you have seen me complaining about the Jets running from the shotgun at some point over the first 2 weeks. I decided to break down some data on the topic and see if my complaints were justified. 

The data - I simply used the NFL.com play-by-play data available on their page. ESPN has the same. The play by play lists whether the formation was in the "shotgun". I'd love to have film to get an even better breakdown with more info such as use of Pistol formations, but I didn't want to pay for NFL premium to get coach tape. If anyone knows somewhere else to rewatch entire games for free, please let me know.

Preamble to the data - I know runs from the shotgun can important to add balance to an offense that uses shotgun passes a lot. However, when your QB offers no running threat on read options and your team is not passing deep enough to stop the defense from sitting on underneath plays, this can put the RB at a major disadvantage. At the NFL level it is very hard to consistently pick up positive yardage without a head of steam. It feels doubly frustrating, as the Jets have seemed to run out of the shotgun on 3rd and short and failed more than once.

Run data:

- Total run plays from shotgun = 16 (40%)

- Total non shot gun runs = 24 (60%)

- Average YPC under shotgun = 2.19yds

- average YPC otherwise = 5.2ypc

- season long from shotgun = 8yd

- season long otherwise = 30yd

- % plays of 2yd or less from shotgun = 56%

- % plays of 2yd or less otherwise = 29%

 

Reading between the lines - other factors:

- 2 of the 3 longest shotgun runs (6 and 8 yards) came from Braelon Allen, and the longest came in the middle of a pass heavy TD drive. It's expected, but runs from the shotgun appear to work best when unexpected. Teams appear to be ready for Breece shotgun runs. 

- 49ers game had almost an even split of shotgun vs non shotgun runs. This may have partly been due to playing from behind, but the same was true in the first half of the Titans game. The jets utilized far less shotgun runs in the 2nd half of the Titans game to great results, with their only 2 shotgun runs "later" in that game going for 2 and 6 yards.

- the "2 yards or less" stat is somewhat arbitrary, but don't forget that a theoretical 3ypc will net you a first down each 4 plays. I was coached that this is kinda the minimum you're aiming for when establishing the run and trying not to kill drives. Shotgun runs have not done well in this area.

- The Jets have run on 3rd and short (2yd or less) 5 times. Astoundingly, 4 of these have come from the shotgun, 2 in each game. The jets converted 2 of these, a direct snap to Hall and a run by Allen, while 2 more were left short. The only non shotgun short 3rd down run was successfully converted. Running from the shotgun, especially not the pistol or direct snap, on 3rd and short has been a real issue. 

- as stated previously, it is unknown how many shotgun runs were in the pistol. I theorize this probably accounted for several of the more successful shotgun runs, including (I believe) the successful Allen 3rd and short conversion. 

 

Final conclusions - my eyes have not deceived me. Shotgun runs have been less than half as effective on a YPC basis, have accounted for some of the jets worst plays this year, and have offered very little explosiveness or upside. Despite this, they have accounted for nearly half of the Jets run attempts. 

As stated above, shotgun runs are still necessary for balance. This team wants to use a lot of shotgun and 3WR formations. However, how these runs are worked into the game script can be hugely important, and using them in the "run run pass" or 3rd and short scripts has been disastrous. Hackett needs to do a much better job of selecting when to use these and perhaps mixing Allen in more when doing so. 

It was notable that the jets run game improved significantly later on in the Titans game, coinciding with an increase in non-shotgun usage. Perhaps Rodgers was able to get this into Hacketts head? Or perhaps even Hackett can ride on what works, when it's working? Let's hope Hackett and Rodgers are able to adjust this aspect of play calling for the better. I'll continue to monitor this and provide further insights if I can find game film.

[The Crusher]

@Sperm Edwards

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

@Sperm Edwards

The thread starter still counts as “brevity” in my eyes.

[Sperm Edwards]

It could be they run shotgun so often because Tippman’s taint is extra ticklish & it’s why he dropped to the 2nd round in last year’s draft.

They probably gave McGovern the start over him last year because of that. He may not be an elite center, but you can just look at McGovern’s face and see he doesn’t have a ticklish part on his whole body.

[Gaffneycatch81]

Interesting thread. I hadn’t watched for it, but I now will — it seems you are right that shotgun runs are something they should only do rarely, as they did it the second half of the Titans game. Hopefully that signals an adjustment and the kind of fine tuning that we’re hoping for, and would expect a good team to be engaged in during these first few “preseason” weeks.

[shuler82]

20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It could be they run shotgun so often because Tippman’s taint is extra ticklish & it’s why he dropped to the 2nd round in last year’s draft.

They probably gave McGovern the start over him last year because of that. He may not be an elite center, but you can just look at McGovern’s face and see he doesn’t have a ticklish part on his whole body.

Do they have a guardian cap for the crotch? Might help minimize those shotgun runs. 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

Do they have a guardian cap for the crotch? Might help minimize those shotgun runs. 

You should be promoted to equipment manager. At least waist-down equipment manager anyway.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You should be promoted to equipment manager. At least waist-down equipment manager anyway.

Which JN Mod has that title currently?

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Which JN Mod has that title currently?

It was such a heavily-sought position that @Maxman has permitted us to take turns.

He knows how to keep the JN Mod locker room together. He’s a regular CJ Mosley, that one. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

It was such a heavily-sought position that @Maxman has permitted us to take turns.

He knows how to keep the JN Mod locker room together. He’s a regular CJ Mosley, that one. 

So he bans a poster 3 months after a political post, much the same way Mosley tackles a RB 7-yards past the LOS and gets called "elite"?

[Sperm Edwards]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So he bans a poster 3 months after a political post, much the same way Mosley tackles a RB 7-yards past the LOS and gets called "elite"?

Maxman = elite

Mosley = shite