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Two Predictions about Aaron Rodgers True so Far Thru 1st Q of 2024


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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

Thru four games (a little bit less than 1/4 of the season), Rodgers is ranked:

  • 24th in Comp. Percentage (64.1%)
  • 17th in Passing Yards (849 or 212.3 YPG)
  • 17th in TD Pass Percentage (3.9%) and tied for 11th in total Passing TD's (5)
  • 3rd  in Interception Percentage (0.8%) and tied for 2nd (I believe) if fewest total INT's (1)
  • 18th in Pass Success Rate (44.9%)
  • 24th in Yard Per Attempt (6.6)
  • 17th in Sacks Taken Percentage (7.25%)
  • 16th in QB Rating (92.2) and 19th in QBR (50.1)

Pretty middle-of-the-pack numbers for a starting NFL QB, ranked in the middle or bottom half in pretty much every facet other than throwing INT's (where he remains truly elite).

But these numbers, middling though they may be vs. the rest of the NFL, are still waaaaay above where the Jets have been rated in recent years in the same production categories.

As a reminder, the Jets primary starter Zach last year finished the year ranked:

  • 30th in Comp. Percentage (60.1%)
  • 26th in Passing Yards (2,271 or 189.3 YPG)
  • 30th in TD Pass Percentage (2.2%)
  • 17th in INT Percentage (1.9%)
  • 32nd in Pass Success Rate (36.5%)
  • 29th in Yards Per Attempt (6.2)
  • 33rd in Sacks Taken Percentage (11.11$)
  • 30th in QB Rating (77.2) and 31st IN QBR (30.6)

Now Rodgers could of course improve his rankings with better games as his/our season winds on, of course, further proving both offseason claims.

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

He looks kind of washed to me honestly. How many balls has he short hopped this year? He used to make those in his sleep. I think it’s only going to get worse as he gets more banged up. 

My prediction is that we are going to see Tyrod Taylor sooner than later and he’s going to look a lot better than Aaron. 
 

I appreciate Rodgers attempt to come here and he’s always going to be among the GOATs, but he’s cooked. 

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27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

27 minutes ago, Warfish said:

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

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9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

In fairness and full disclosure, all these number are easily scraped from Pro Football Reference :)

9 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

We have to hope it improves.  Of all the moving pieces, I'm still most focused on the O-Co, who I think (even with Rodgers here) is a big part of our offensive problems.  That, and the O-Line IMO need to improve greatly in the running game, and yes, some in the passing game too.  Only time will tell if it's "5 guys getting used to each other having had no preseason" or some larger systemic or other problem.

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26 minutes ago, bitonti said:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

The idea was it gave JD and Saleh a two year window to save their jobs.  1 year is gone and the moving companies are pitching JD and Saleh’s wife for a contract. 

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57 minutes ago, GregButtleFan said:

He looks kind of washed to me honestly. How many balls has he short hopped this year? He used to make those in his sleep. I think it’s only going to get worse as he gets more banged up. 

My prediction is that we are going to see Tyrod Taylor sooner than later and he’s going to look a lot better than Aaron. 
 

I appreciate Rodgers attempt to come here and he’s always going to be among the GOATs, but he’s cooked. 

So, they aren't benching Rodgers.  Like, ever.   If he gets hurt, sure.

Some throws have been off.   Some throws, he is expecting the WR to do one thing, and they are doing something else.  There is a huge communication breakdown going on.

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53 minutes ago, chirorob said:

So, they aren't benching Rodgers.  Like, ever.   If he gets hurt, sure.

Some throws have been off.   Some throws, he is expecting the WR to do one thing, and they are doing something else.  There is a huge communication breakdown going on.

They aren’t going to bench him, but hes going to miss time and I think Taylor will show he’s the better player 

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2 hours ago, BreeceHallofFame said:

We’ve played top 5 defenses every week.

Team Defense rankings thru four games:

  • Denver - 3rd in Yards Allowed, 3rd in Points Allowed.
  • New England - 24th in Yards, 17th in Points.
  • Tennessee - 1st in Yards, 21st in Points.
  • San Fran. - 9th in Yards, 11th in Points.
2 hours ago, BreeceHallofFame said:

Making a judgment on things at this point is pretty silly. 

It's a status so far.  Not a judgement. 

I specifically noted in the OP that we're only 1/4 of the way in, and that things can and will change.

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3 hours ago, Warfish said:

There were two predictions that I heard repeated many times this offseason in re: to Aaron Rodgers:

1. That Aaron Rodgers was probably not a top 5 QB anymore; and

2. That even if he wasn't, and even at his worst, he would still provide the best QB play/production we've seen in many years for the Jets.

So far, both of these seem to be accurate:

Thru four games (a little bit less than 1/4 of the season), Rodgers is ranked:

  • 24th in Comp. Percentage (64.1%)
  • 17th in Passing Yards (849 or 212.3 YPG)
  • 17th in TD Pass Percentage (3.9%) and tied for 11th in total Passing TD's (5)
  • 3rd  in Interception Percentage (0.8%) and tied for 2nd (I believe) if fewest total INT's (1)
  • 18th in Pass Success Rate (44.9%)
  • 24th in Yard Per Attempt (6.6)
  • 17th in Sacks Taken Percentage (7.25%)
  • 16th in QB Rating (92.2) and 19th in QBR (50.1)

Pretty middle-of-the-pack numbers for a starting NFL QB, ranked in the middle or bottom half in pretty much every facet other than throwing INT's (where he remains truly elite).

But these numbers, middling though they may be vs. the rest of the NFL, are still waaaaay above where the Jets have been rated in recent years in the same production categories.

As a reminder, the Jets primary starter Zach last year finished the year ranked:

  • 30th in Comp. Percentage (60.1%)
  • 26th in Passing Yards (2,271 or 189.3 YPG)
  • 30th in TD Pass Percentage (2.2%)
  • 17th in INT Percentage (1.9%)
  • 32nd in Pass Success Rate (36.5%)
  • 29th in Yards Per Attempt (6.2)
  • 33rd in Sacks Taken Percentage (11.11$)
  • 30th in QB Rating (77.2) and 31st IN QBR (30.6)

Now Rodgers could of course improve his rankings with better games as his/our season winds on, of course, further proving both offseason claims.

The real question remains the question asked in the offseason:  Is the level of improvement by Rodgers over Zach enough to win multiple more games than the Jets did under Zach, and is the production variance enough in the positive to justify the move to acquire, and the added wins it brought.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season, when hopefully Rodgers improves from his numbers above, and we do better than 2-2.

No problem. The Jets will get Davante Adams and all problems solved. (Just like everyone said when the Jets got Rodgers).

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It's a very good original post, thoughtful without any perceived prejudice.

To be fair though, I'm less worried about Rodgers and more worried about Tyron Smith, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Quinnen Williams, and our Edge rotation.

I think Rodgers has looked fine overall, and expect the rust to diminish if the rest of his supporting cast can do their jobs and keep him healthy.  I'd also expect offensive chemistry to improve and lead to much better results.

Important AR context outside the competition and last week's weather:

1. Missed all of last year

2. Coming back from an Achilles

3. Playing for a new team, with lots of new pieces

At the very least, he has shown elite processing skills, fast delivery (my educated guess would be top 5 or so), strong accuracy (at times) and against NE much better mobility than most of this board expected.  We should probably give him the benefit of the doubt against a blitzing Denver defense in the rain that knocked him down 15 times.  Shame on the OL and the coaching preparation and (lack of) strategy. 

Yes- he has looked jittery at times, has missed some reads, and has been uncharacteristically inaccurate on occasion.  I'd like him to take some more risks (like the free play deep balls to Lazard & Wilson) when there isn't a penalty to shield him.  Do I want him to stand in the pocket and take big hits?  NO.  

  

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Just a couple more thoughts.  There are clearly some here who would rather be right than have the Jets win and Rodgers perform well.  It's kind of pathetic.  We know the names, no need to mention them.  Completely narrative driven.  Quiet after a Jets win but chest out after a heartbreaking loss.  Hey, whatever floats your boat.

It would also be helpful to acknowledge a 40-41 year old Rodgers isn't Superman and needs a strong supporting cast.  This is Different than in years past where he alone seemingly could elevate everyone with his mobility and durability.   

Does Tom Brady win with this Jets offense, being hit 14-15 times at his age?  8 or so Offensive penalties.  Premium supporting cast that doesn't show up and who might not be as good as we thought they were.  A head and offensive coaching staff so out of their league that it's incredibly hard for them to win with a roster of individual parts that appears 3-5x better than Denver's.   

 

   

 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I think this is an idea that some fans tell themselves to feel better or superior about themselves and their own forms of optimism/Pollyannaism, especially when things aren't currently trending as good as hoped, rather than anything that is actually true.

I don't believe there is a single Jets Fan on this board who would rather be right than win a Super Bowl.  Trolls?  Other teams fans?  Maybe, maybe the odd truly self-hating Jets Fan maybe?  Ok, sure.  The guys I think of as "haters" here, I know most of them a long time, and they want to win, I know it.  All us cynics and doubters would prefer to win than be right yet again.

What I do believe is that fans tend to express their opinions, pro and con, and most of them will shout about it when right, and pipe down or double down when wrong, or, mid-stream, will point out where the trend supports them and crow about it, or pipe down or double down when the trend does not support them. 

Human nature and entirely separate from a desire to win.

I also think some fans have a loathing for any stat, analysis or other fact-based look, especially mid-season, that doesn't support everything being "good" the way they see it.  The only fans who have ever taken issue with mid-season looks at production numbers (or stats more generally) are the optimists/homers who want to believe things are better than they appear or the stats can support. 

Zach Wilson fans were very much like that, denouncing any and every stat-based look at Wilson's play, and loudly claiming he was "better than his stats" or that only his good games represented him, or that his flashes (good games) were really him not those bad games, until enough time had passed even they could no longer defend him, so they either quieted down and moved on to being Rodgers guys, or are biding their time till Wilson plays again, ready to do a "told you so" the first time he completes a pass, a la all the "we shoulda kept Darnold" guys who never once said that at the time, lol.

I would have hoped this wouldn't be the case with Rodgers, but it is what it is.  Right now he's producing as a 15-25th type QB.   He's played a few good Defenses, played in one half a game in a monsoon, and (as you note) there are several factors that could help explain a slow start.  But these games count, they're not preseason exhibitions.  He may improve, he may not.  But this is where he is so far, in games that count.  

You’re not one of the posters I’m talking about.  As I wrote, I thought your post was very fair.

There are a lot of shades of gray points of view … and of course black or white, sometimes narrative driven ones without any consideration for context on the opposite side of the argument or desire.

So yes, black and white arguments are by definition extreme but in this case I’ll almost always favor the side of the one that seems to favor the Jets winning over being the first to be right on a particular losing issue.

I’d rather be happy than right.  That’s a big question in human psychology, would you rather be right or happy?

I’d actually prefer to be both right and happy ;).

But it is a little naive to think that some aren’t so driven to be right that being wrong prevents them from being happy even when their team wins.

And in the spirit of balance it’s also fair to concede that some want to be happy so much that they ignore the stark realities that are often in the way.  

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

legit observation and thanks for doing the math

if we're being generous Rodgers' salary even matches up to the mid-tier performance 

hard to say if that's worth two extra two's tho 

the idea was that the Jets' defense would be super elite so even average QB play = Super bowl 

holding Denver to 10 is by any standard a winning performance but this offense is still really far from average and it's hard to see how they get better with the world's dumbest OC 

Going into the game on Sunday, the Jets were 1 of 5 teams who were averaging 3 TD's a game.  And the Jets were the #1, 3rd down conversion offense in the NFL w/ a pretty sh*tty run game, so I would imagine a lot of that is Rodgers carrying the offense.  They fell to 7 at 2.8 and 3rd overall respectively after Sunday.  These are pretty positive things that could bode well moving forward as hopefully the offense improves.

So I dont think the Jets are great by any measure but to say they are far from average is kind of silly, especially when offensive play as a whole is down.  No team averages more than 3 TD's a game.  Buffalo leads the league at 3.8 tied w/ New Orleans.  The league average points per game is 21.  The Jets are at 19 w/ 5 other teams right in the middle of that pact and that was obviously hampered by a 9pt performance vs Denver (who is holding teams to 13ppg).  

The better statement is, the Jets are perfectly average on offense and the question from there is, will the D be good enough to make up the difference if the offense never really improves from average?  Right now, the Jets D is 5th in ppg but they've also faced 2 of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, Denver and New England.  So it's hard to say but I think both units could stand to improve and wouldnt that be a welcome change?  This team was 4-3 and 6-3 in back to back season and collapsed.  Be pretty cool if it went the other way for once but I'm certainly not holding my breath.

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I think this team has been seeing some good defenses.  The Niners, Titans and Broncos have what I believe are very good defenses.  I don't even think the Pats are bad on D, but their feeble O lets them get exposed way too much.   The Vikings are top rated right now, but I did not expect them to be this good.  We will see on Sunday.  I think they will explode before the bye against the Cards, Colts and Texans.  That is my prediction without paying too much attention to how teams are actually performing this season.

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12 minutes ago, JiFtheOracle said:

Going into the game on Sunday, the Jets were 1 of 5 teams who were averaging 3 TD's a game.  And the Jets were the #1, 3rd down conversion offense in the NFL w/ a pretty sh*tty run game, so I would imagine a lot of that is Rodgers carrying the offense.  They fell to 7 at 2.8 and 3rd overall respectively after Sunday.  These are pretty positive things that could bode well moving forward as hopefully the offense improves.

So I dont think the Jets are great by any measure but to say they are far from average is kind of silly, especially when offensive play as a whole is down.  No team averages more than 3 TD's a game.  Buffalo leads the league at 3.8 tied w/ New Orleans.  The league average points per game is 21.  The Jets are at 19 w/ 5 other teams right in the middle of that pact and that was obviously hampered by a 9pt performance vs Denver (who is holding teams to 13ppg).  

The better statement is, the Jets are perfectly average on offense and the question from there is, will the D be good enough to make up the difference if the offense never really improves from average?  Right now, the Jets D is 5th in ppg but they've also faced 2 of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, Denver and New England.  So it's hard to say but I think both units could stand to improve and wouldnt that be a welcome change?  This team was 4-3 and 6-3 in back to back season and collapsed.  Be pretty cool if it went the other way for once but I'm certainly not holding my breath.

Amazing when you consider all fans wanted last year was an average offense to help our dominant D.

 

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8 minutes ago, Integrity28 said:

Amazing when you consider all fans wanted last year was an average offense to help our dominant D.

 

Sunday was an ugly game but after reflecting, I'm not overly concerned w/ each particular unit, except the ST's.  Gipson has been awful on kick returns and Greg the leg sucks apparently.   My biggest concern is Saleh indeed, a bad Head Coach.  Which I was of the mind you mentioned, lets see what he can do w/ at least a competent offense.  Results are quite mixed thus far. 

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Jets would be 2-2 with Zach Wilson. Losing to the Broncos was as bad of a loss as the Jets have ever had. Rodgers has to be better. Everyone has to be better. Otherwise they are just a middle of the pack, no chance at winning anything team. 

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