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JetNation Premium NYJ Draft Preview Extravaganza

Maxman

By Maxman
in NY Jets Forum

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Barton

Barton

Posted
Posted

Great job, bit. That was a great read.

I personally do not want us to take Justin Blalock at 25, as there will definitely be better value at that spot imo. Now if we can trade down, I'd consider taking Blalock, also depending on who else is still on the board.

Dwayne Bowe even though a WR, would be a great choice at 25, although I dont see him lasting that far.

Flashback to 2 years ago and seemingly every Jets fan really wanted Heath Miller at 26, who's not nearly as good as everyone thought he would be. Yes, he's a nice blocker, but he's limited in the passing game despite having good hands. And it seems now that when people mention Greg Olsen, who's a far superior talent to Heath Miller, that people immediately shoot down the thought of drafting Olsen at 25.

Now I'm not saying Olsen is a sure thing, he's far from it. I also said a few weeks ago that Olsen has some doug jolleyesque components of his game as he never produced like he should have (in college for Olsen, in the pros for Jolley) for all that talent he has, thats alittle jolley-like. However, maybe the situation was so bad in Miami (and it was) that Olsen, even as talented as he is, was so greatly effected by all the problems the program has had the last 2 years that he could not overcome the deficiencies around him. I also do NOT think thats good enough of an excuse to not produce as it is still Miami U, but I do take it into consideration and hold out that the jury is not out on Olsen just yet......

I'm definitely open to drafting Olsen at 25, but not if the Jets plan on keeping Pennington the QB for very long, because Chad does not utilize the tight end - he doesnt have the arm for it. The windows to hit a TE are smaller, open and close faster than those of a WR, imo and Penny doesnt have the arm to get the best out of any TE. He's never been a QB to work in the middle of the field, ever.

I would look at that Olsen pick as more of a weapon for our next QB, whoever that may be - hopefully its Clemens.

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Thai Jet

Thai Jet

Posted
Posted
Great job, bit. That was a great read.

I personally do not want us to take Justin Blalock at 25, as there will definitely be better value at that spot imo. Now if we can trade down, I'd consider taking Blalock, also depending on who else is still on the board.

Dwayne Bowe even though a WR, would be a great choice at 25, although I dont see him lasting that far.

Flashback to 2 years ago and seemingly every Jets fan really wanted Heath Miller at 26, who's not nearly as good as everyone thought he would be. Yes, he's a nice blocker, but he's limited in the passing game despite having good hands. And it seems now that when people mention Greg Olsen, who's a far superior talent to Heath Miller, that people immediately shoot down the thought of drafting Olsen at 25.

Now I'm not saying Olsen is a sure thing, he's far from it. I also said a few weeks ago that Olsen has some doug jolleyesque components of his game as he never produced like he should have (in college for Olsen, in the pros for Jolley) for all that talent he has, thats alittle jolley-like. However, maybe the situation was so bad in Miami (and it was) that Olsen, even as talented as he is, was so greatly effected by all the problems the program has had the last 2 years that he could not overcome the deficiencies around him. I also do NOT think thats good enough of an excuse to not produce as it is still Miami U, but I do take it into consideration and hold out that the jury is not out on Olsen just yet......

I'm definitely open to drafting Olsen at 25, but not if the Jets plan on keeping Pennington the QB for very long, because Chad does not utilize the tight end - he doesnt have the arm for it. The windows to hit a TE are smaller, open and close faster than those of a WR, imo and Penny doesnt have the arm to get the best out of any TE. He's never been a QB to work in the middle of the field, ever.

I would look at that Olsen pick as more of a weapon for our next QB, whoever that may be - hopefully its Clemens.

Don't be surprized if Bowe is still there at 25. He seems to be slipping down the board though I don't know why based on his great SEC career. It always amazes me when someone either falls rapidly or better yet "he's rising rapidly up the board". Like why? Were there games played in Feb. or March that I missed. I guess it's all perception.

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jamesAngleton

jamesAngleton

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This is a great read! After the signing of Bowens I thought The Jets would not go after an OLB the first day. After reading this awesome synopsis I am glad that there is still a chance. I too would love to see Spencer at 25. If not, then Woodley or Crowder in the second would be fine by me.

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PeterNorth09

PeterNorth09

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Our offensive line has some serious holes in it especially with Ferguson not being the God-send most people thought he would be. Right now this is our O-line:

Left Side -

LT: Ferguson 290 lbs

LG: Kendall 280 lbs

That has to be one of, if not the most undersized left side in the NFL. Kendall has at most one year left and it's not like he played lights out last year either. As a matter of fact, I have seen a big drop-off in Kendall's play since the 2004 season when he first got here.

Right Side -

RG - Brandon Moore

RT - Anthony Clement

Moore and Clement would both make nice back-ups but they are not starters. Moore I can more easily live with as a starter. Clement is a problem however. There were a dozen RT's in last year's draft who were better than Clement that we passed up on and this year we didn't even bother to upgrade at RT in free agency.

We upgraded at RB with the Thomas Jones deal though we traded down about 30 spots in the 2nd round. Our running game will be better next year with Barlow/lock gone and Washington having a year experience but if we're going to have a top 10 running game we need to bring in some big road grader maulers in here. I'm talking about guys like Blalock, Grubbs and Manuel Ramirez. No more finesse blockers like Ferguson please.

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gang_green03

gang_green03

Posted
Posted

Nice read and great job. I agree to an extent, but I don't think o-line is our best bet at 25.

I'm all for upgrading the offensive line but I think better value can be had at other positions in the 1st round. If we traded down, though, then I'm all for it.

If one of the big 3 corners (Revis, Houston, Hall) falls to us its a no brainer. Other than that we might be better served picking up a CB in 2 or 3 as well.

I don't think there's enough value in the 1st to take a d-lineman. Harrell, is good, but is a reach there IMO. Carriker's gone long before us and I don't think any other lineman's worth taking in the 1st. I agree, I'd rather pick up a guy like Alama-Francis in the 2nd round (glad Jets have shown a lot of interest in him:D ).

Since you include the undersized DE tweeners in the d-lineman ranking then I definitely agree. I think there's value at that position at our spot and could definitely see then going with someone like Spencer (which I hope they do) or Moss.

I want no parts of WR or TE unless Calvin Johnson is there. Bowe would be pretty good value since he's projected higher, but there's not really a need for WR. We need a replacement for Coles but not in this draft. We have to many other needs to go with a luxury pick to have ready to replace Coles in 2 years. There should be similar, if not better, value at other positions of much greater need. Same goes for TE. On top of that, I'm not sold on Olsen and his underachieving at all. I'd even put LB above WR, TE, and RB. I could see them going with a versatile 3-4 LB on the first day if he were BPA.

If I had to handicap our draft, I'd say that our most likely pick is a tweener.

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will

will

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Posted

Its a great article. Red meat for the faithful. Thank you.

Personally, assuming the draft goes more or less as projected, I'd prefer the Jets draft a guy like Houston, Spencer, Moss or Harrell and then address O-line in the second or third round with a guy like Ramirez. The things I have read about Ramirez say he is a road grader and could be the best run blocking Guard in the draft. And I havent seen one mock where he is not available when the Jets pick at #59 - in fact in most Mocks he lasts until the Jets pick at #89. To me, the drop off from an incredible athlete like Moss to the next tier of OLB prospect has to be substantially greater than the dropoff from Blalock to, say, Ramirez (or other top G prospects). The same goes for the elite CB prospects, and given the choice I'd draft one of them ahead of Blalock too.

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bitonti

bitonti

Posted
Posted

thanks for all the replies and feedback. I didn't plan on writing anything like that last night it just kinda happened.

Note that the odds are all above 5-1 meaning there are no sure things. I say OL is most likely at 6-1 but close behind are DL with 7-1 and CB with 8-1. There are no 2-1 or 1-3 odds with these guys, every position is a medium to long shot.

the reason why i like the blalock pick, besides filling a need is because it's the safety pick - NE are going to take someone the Jets want at 24, but odds are it won't be a guard.

as for ramirez, everyone says he's a road grader but that's perception. Reality is he's a guard from Texas Tech (shotgun passing offense) who is coming off of a knee surgery.

again just because OL is 6-1 doesn't mean it's especially likely - all of these outcomes are unlikely to a certain extent, due to the pick being so late there are too many variables for anyone to come out and say they have a very good idea what the pick will be. If there wasn't grubbs in the draft the odds would be higher - like with TE if there were 2 possible TE instead of 1 the odds would be lower.

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JonEJet

JonEJet

Posted
Posted

I have no earthly idea people around here are not thinking a guy like Sidney Rice

I have watched this guy perform for years, and the guy loves football.....I know CJ has all the drafniks gong ga-ga, but i'd take Rice in a San Fransico Minute

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Johnny Johnson

Johnny Johnson

Posted
Posted

By
DraftDaddy's
own Bitonti. On the front page now!

great job, enjoyed every bit of the analysis. Gotta say i agree with all your points, very thorough. Only nitpick is we drafted Cotch in the 4th, other than that, how do you feel about
Michael Griffin
possibly being BAP on our board @ 25?

I'd think he's at very least a consideration, and he seems to be flying under the radar. I'm very high on E Smith, but Rhodes, Griffin, and Smith would be quite a threesome, giving us tremendous versatility in the secondary, for years.

Try E Coleman at nickel. Ideally a FS, he can only back up KR.

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Pragmatic Bus

Pragmatic Bus

Posted
Posted
I have no earthly idea people around here are not thinking a guy like Sidney Rice

I have watched this guy perform for years, and the guy loves football.....I know CJ has all the drafniks gong ga-ga, but i'd take Rice in a San Fransico Minute

i like sidney rice but he is no jerry rice.

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LionelRichie

LionelRichie

Posted
Posted

bit - you don't have a 2-1 or 3-1 because the odds you used are made up. if you add up all of your odds you are still well short of 1.0. you actually need to add a 2-1 just to make it close.

also, i think the jets trade down and either add a 2nd rd pick or 1st next year. hopefully a player slides to 25 that someone at the top of rd 2 wants to go up and get and the jets can cash in.

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bitonti

bitonti

Posted
Posted
bit - you don't have a 2-1 or 3-1 because the odds you used are made up. if you add up all of your odds you are still well short of 1.0. you actually need to add a 2-1 just to make it close.

also, i think the jets trade down and either add a 2nd rd pick or 1st next year. hopefully a player slides to 25 that someone at the top of rd 2 wants to go up and get and the jets can cash in.

damn-all these draft previews i've done, never realized that odds have to add up to one.

thanks for the tip!

without changing the rankings,

here's my adjusted odds:

OL 4-1

DL 5-1

DB 6-1

WR 8-1

TE 10-1

RB 12-1

LB 14-1

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Barton

Barton

Posted
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A note on Greg Olsen:

He did gradute early, but he also obtained his degree. So there wasnt anything left for him to do it seems (in terms of classes to take)

http://www.seahawks.com/News/News.aspx?id=49002

KIRKLAND - Every year there is a freak in the NFL Draft, a player just too big, too strong, too fast and too talented for his position. Last year it was Vernon Davis, the 6-3, 255-pound tight end from Maryland with hands of gold, who broke 4.4 in the 40 and bench-pressed 225 pounds 33 times.

The San Francisco 49ers were thrilled to draft Davis with the sixth overall pick, and he’ll be their tight end for a generation.

More to question of the day is: who will be that tight end this year as we prepare for the April 28-29 draft?

olson_small.jpg

Greg Olsen

Although there is nobody comparable to Davis, Miami’s Greg Olsen did make huge strides at the NFL Combine last month. At 6-6, 253, nobody expected him to run the 40 in 4.51, so he did turn some heads … made it even more likely he would go in the first round in a draft that didn’t appear to have a first round tight end.

But there are few other promises beyond that.

“He rose to the occasion, which is what we hope here,” said NFL Combine analyst Gil Brandt. “He caught the ball really well, ran well and that’s what teams look for when they get here. It’s how they handle themselves under the microscope, to go along with what they learned about him all year.”

That explains why Olsen began the Combine as the No. 1 tight end and refused to lose the position, despite coming out of school a year early when he could have used a senior year. Some of it is the tradition of Miami tight ends, but considering Olsen’s numbers last season – 40 receptions for 489 yards and a touchdown – coming out was a bit of a gamble.

But he was also smart enough to show the scouts at his Pro Day that he is a very capable long-snapper as well, and says the history at Miami had nothing to do with his decision.

"Every year Miami does have guys who come out early,” Olsen said. “But this was purely an individual decision on my part. I thought it was my best interest. I'd already obtained my degree and graduated early so I didn't have to worry about going back at a later date. I played a lot of games at the college level the past three years so I thought I was ready and had the experience to go to the next level.”

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