AFC East draft needs......Football Ousiders

[SoFlaJets]

AFC East draft needs

Bill Barnwell / FootballOutsiders.com

Posted: 8 hours ago

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, we're breaking out our division-by-division series on team needs.

The Bills' off-season has seen them shed starters across the defense, with star CB Nate Clements, MLB London Fletcher-Baker, and OLB Takeo Spikes all leaving the team. In addition, wantaway halfback Willis McGahee was dealt to Baltimore for a pair of third-round picks in 2007 and 2008; while our research doesn't show that McGahee's an elite running back by any means, McGahee is clearly better than Anthony Thomas and the other backs left behind him. The leftover sum from those moves has been applied to patching a offensive line that was very poor in 2006, with tackle Langston Walker and guard Derrick Dockery each arriving in free agency. While rumors have linked the Bills to Michael Turner or Corey Dillon, the truth is that the Bills will need to upgrade their defense more than their backfield to have a hope of winning in 2007.

Top five areas of need:

1. Cornerback: The Bills were third in the league in 2006 at stopping No. 1 wide receivers; they were below-average in stopping every other kind of receiver: No. 2 receivers, slot receivers, tight ends, running backs, H-Backs, tackle-eligibles, ends, flankers, rovers, the whole bunch. Now that Clements is out of the picture, the Bills defensive backs simply need to play better. While they have a young secondary that can be expected to improve some, using their first-round pick on Leon Hall or Darrelle Revis would be a bright idea.

2. Linebacker: The loss of Fletcher-Baker and Spikes leaves the Bills with a gaping hole at two linebacker spots. Considering that the Bills were 29th in the league in stopping the run in 2006, and the Bills defensive line is mostly set in stone as a smallish foursome dedicated to rushing the passer, the linebackers will not only have to match the departed veterans' play, but improve on it. Angelo Crowell started in Spikes' stead in 2005, and there is talk that he might move to the inside, but he's a useful fourth/fifth linebacker being stretched into a starting role. In addition, the move from the outside to the middle is a difficult one that many players struggle with, let alone marginal ones. This is usually where someone from the team will talk about how Crowell's skill set is better suited for the inside, but if his skill set was actually suited for the inside, he'd have been there already.

3. Running back: The reason that running back is third isn't because the need is any less pressing, but instead that it's easier to find one or two cheap running backs who can be close to a successful tandem while frying bigger fish (and dousing them in hot sauce). In truth, the best move would be to grab Dillon for a season or two and get his last 400 carries, which would solidify a very solid offense and allow the Bills to focus their draft resources on the defense.

4. Wide receiver: There's a huge drop-off between the first three needs and this one. While the Bills have a stud receiver in Lee Evans, the lack of talent across from him (Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish, and Peerless Price) is not enough to keep double coverage away from him. While Reed and Parrish are speedy receivers who can stretch a defense, the Bills would benefit from having a bulkier target who can keep linebackers from dropping too deep into their zones.

5. Tight end: Speaking of, while Robert Royal was competent in 2006, he'd been one of the worst tight ends in football in 2005. The truth is likely that Royal is somewhere in the middle. Bringing in a tight end to supplant Royal would be a good idea, helping out the Bills' passing attack and with the blocking up front.

Who they hope falls to them: While there is some research being conducted into the effects of heavy college workloads on backs once they get to the NFL, the Bills would find it tough to pass up Adrian Peterson if he fell to them at 12.

Who they will have to settle for: "Settle" being a relative term, the Bills could find themselves sitting at the No. 12 spot with Paul Posluszny available. With Posluszny's experience at playing both outside and inside linebacker, he could replace Fletcher-Baker as the heart of the defense and keep Crowell outside, where the Bills are better off.

Who they may have their eyes on in later rounds: With recent history littered with SEC backs who went onto success after being drafted in the latter stages of the draft (including stars like Rudi Johnson and Stephen Davis as well as starters Justin Griffith, Domanick Davis, Fred Beasley, and Patrick Pass), the Bills might want to take a stab at Florida halfback DeShawn Wynn if he gets to Day 2 of the draft.

Miami Dolphins

A disappointing season for the Dolphins (remember, some prominent pundits actually predicted a Super Bowl run for Miami in 2006) was followed by Nick Saban's return to the college ranks, as well as the free agent loss of Sammy Morris and trade of Wes Welker to the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Dolphins continue to struggle to find a quarterback to replace Dan Marino, and their defensive stars have gotten a year older. Right now, it's hard to find many positives for Dolphins fans to look forward to in 2007.

Top five areas of need:

1. Wide receiver: With Welker gone, Marty Booker neither particularly young nor effective, and Chris Chambers still struggling with the burden of being a No. 1 receiver, what might seem like a perceived strength for the Dolphins is actually a significant weakness. While improving the quarterback spot would help, why not dream? If the Dolphins packaged their first-round selection, the Patriots second-round pick, and a second-rounder next year, it would be enough (according to the NFL draft value chart) to grab Calvin Johnson if he falls to No. 4 (as Peter Schrager projects Johnson to in his latest mock draft). Johnson and Chambers with Trent Green or 75 percent of Daunte Culpepper behind center? That could work.

2. Defensive tackle: While the Dolphins were a stout run defense last season, they will have the oldest front seven in all of football for the third season running in 2007. While it's easy to ignore that and concentrate on seemingly more pressing concerns, a collapse of the defensive line due to injury or age-related regression would be catastrophic for the team.

3. Offensive tackle: While it's not clear who will play quarterback for the Dolphins in 2007, the loss of versatile LT Damion McIntosh will hurt the team. Bringing in someone to protect the eventual starter's blindside would be another useful pick at No. 9.

4. Linebacker: With Zach Thomas running out of gas at 34, drafting his eventual replacement at some point during the draft is another necessity.

5. Tight end: In a draft with only one upper-tier tight end prospect (Miami's Greg Olsen), the Dolphins might just want to stick with the tandem David Martin and Justin Peelle at tight end and worry about the spot in '08.

The Bills wouldn't mind Adrian Peterson falling to them at pick No. 12. (Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images)

Who they hope falls to them: While Michigan DT Alan Branch's stock has slipped after a mediocre combine, he's a mauler on the interior and would have excellent veterans to play alongside while showing him the ropes. He would represent the first part of the defensive line of the next winning Dolphins team.

Who they will have to settle for: Fellow DT Amobi Okoye has been the fasting-riser player of the draft process; only 19 and with huge upside, he'd enjoy the same benefits of having veterans around him that Branch does, but would need it far more.

Who they may have their eyes on in later rounds: How about a quarterback? Cleo Lemon's not the future. A big name who they might find a spot for is Boise State star Jared Zabransky, who could potentially fill the tortured "Slash" role in Miami currently occupied by Marcus Vick.

New England Patriots

A tumultuous year for the Patriots was capped by a heartbreaking collapse against the Colts in the AFC championship game, and with the window of opportunity beginning to creak, Bill Belichick's made his move by acquiring Adalius Thomas, Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker, Sammy Morris, Kyle Brady, and Kelley Washington to fill gaps on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. As a result, the Patriots are relatively stacked and the moves they make will be mostly anticipatory as opposed to reactionary.

Top five areas of need:

1. Linebacker: While bringing in Thomas was a huge move, the Patriots still have to account for the decreased performance of linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, both of whom clearly lost a step in 2006. With Tully Banta-Cain gone to San Francisco and Junior Seau unlikely to return, the Patriots will need to bring in a linebacker or two at some point during the draft.

2. Cornerback: Anticipatory would be referring to Asante Samuel and Randall Gay, both of whom are unrestricted free agents after the 2007 season. One of the few disappointments when it came to the Patriots in 2006 was their inability to forecast the free agent market's boom, resulting in the failure to hold onto Deion Branch and Samuel at what are now below-market rates. It's still up in the air whether Samuel will even suit up for the Patriots in 2007. Bringing in a corner with one of their first-round picks seems like an essential move.

3. Safety: Speaking of, Rodney Harrison's already been taken off the scrap heap once in his career. Since then, he's been fantastic when healthy, but much like the rest of the Patriots secondary, he's struggled to stay that way. With Eugene Wilson also constantly scrapping to stay healthy, using their third-round pick on a safety would be a good fit.

4. Quarterback: Let's not go sounding false alarms. Tom Brady's about as sturdy and effective a quarterback as you can ask for. That being said, he is turning 30 and the only quarterback behind him is Matt Cassel. Drafting a quarterback to compete with Cassel wouldn't be the worst usage of a Day 2 pick.

5. Running back: While Laurence Maroney showed signs of stardom last year, Kevin Faulk is getting up in age and Sammy Morris is more of a fullback. Bringing in a speed demon like Auburn's Kenny Irons would provide them with a potential replacement for Faulk.

Who they hope falls to them: It's always hard to say with the Patriots. Very few mock drafts anticipated the selection of Maroney last year or Logan Mankins the year before. The Patriots are also known for their willingness to move around in the draft, and with two first-rounders and no second-rounder, they could move up to No. 8 or acquire a series of picks if they were so inclined. If the Patriots are really in it to win now, why not go crazy and make an offer to Chicago for Lance Briggs? That would be a pretty nice group of linebackers, wouldn't it? In another unlikely scenario, Reggie Nelson would be a great addition to the Patriots' secondary if he fell to them at No. 24 ... if they stay there.

Who they will have to settle for: With Nelson likely gone before the Patriots pick, if they stay at No. 24, Aaron Ross would be the likeliest of picks as a four-year starter at corner in a major college program.

Who they may have their eyes on in later rounds: The Patriots like picking players from programs they know and trust. One of those? Notre Dame, where Charlie Weis is the coach; while the Patriots missed out on WR Maurice Stovall last season, their need for an additional running back could lead them to former Fighting Irish HB Darius Walker.

New York Jets

The Jets' success in 2006 was unexpected, and proof of what can happen when a good coach, health, an easy schedule, and some luck can turn into. While the schedule will be harder and the luck is likely to dissipate, there are plenty of the reasons to think the Jets will improve. Offensively, Jerricho Cotchery's emerged into a very good wide receiver, Thomas Jones has been acquired to provide stability at running back, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold will benefit from another year of experience on the line. Defensively, the team will have a full year with the 3-4 defense underneath their belt; it's finding players that fill in the gaps here that the Jets should aim for with their picks in 2007.

Top five areas of need:

1. Defensive tackle: While the Jets have a former top-five selection at defensive tackle with Dewayne Robertson, he simply doesn't have the skillset to play nose tackle in a 3-4 alignment. He might be useful outside, but the Jets need to commit to playing him there. Using their first round pick on a nose tackle would allow him to stay there.

2. Cornerback: Former second-round pick Justin Miller has matured into an excellent return man, and he's only 23, but he's struggled to grasp the difference between being an athlete and a cornerback. While Deion Sanders can get away with that, very few other corners can, and Miller isn't one of them. It may turn out that Miller's more suited to play in the slot, and that the Jets need to draft a bigger corner to play outside.

3. Tight end: Incumbent Chris Baker is a mediocrity, with the Jets already having attempted to replace him once (the ill-fated trade for Doug Jolley). Having a very good tight end would be an even more intriguing proposition for the Jets when you consider Chad Pennington's lack of arm strength.

4. Safety: While Erik Coleman enjoyed an excellent rookie season, he's struggled to retain that form over the last two years. Kerry Rhodes has shown himself to be a playmaker at free safety, but Coleman probably has one more year to prove himself as a starter.

5. Outside linebacker: While the Jets' front three did them no favors last year, neither did Eric Barton or Victor Hobson. Both struggled to fill gaps or shed blockers last year, and while upgrading here isn't essential, it is inevitable if the Jets want to turn their run defense around.

Who they hope falls to them: Posluszny would be able to fill in across multiple spots in the Jets linebacking core, and give Jonathan Vilma a tackling buddy in the second level. If either of the draft's prominent defensive tackles fall to them, the Jets should flip their wig, as it'll be a new day rising for their awful rush defense.

Who they will have to settle for: Justin Harrel is the draft's third best defensive tackle, but he's not as good as Branch and doesn't have as much upside as Okoye. He'd still be better than Kimo von Oelhoeffen in the middle.

Who they may have their eyes on in later rounds: A strong safety to potentially replace Coleman will be in the back of the Jets' minds; Sabby Piscitelli, a rising prospect at the position over the last few months, might be the Jets target in the third round.

[SoFlaJets]

tell me that Sabby Piscitelli wouldn't be a perfect name for a Jets player

[greeniemeanie]

tell me that Sabby Piscitelli wouldn't be a perfect name for a Jets player

This kid is predicted to turn into quite the player from what I've read. He would be a solid pickup in the third. I have to agree, Sabby Picitelli sounds like a natural fit for a NY player.

Give the guy some of momma's cookin' and he'd run through a brick wall for ya.

[SoFlaJets]

This kid is predicted to turn into quite the player from what I've read. He would be a solid pickup in the third. I have to agree, Sabby Picitelli sounds like a natural fit for a NY player.

Give the guy some of momma's cookin' and he'd run through a brick wall for ya.

hey he's a local kid from Boca Raton...atsa my boya

[PeterNorth09]

Mock AFC East Drafts:

Jets:

25. Darrelle Revis (upgrade at CB)

59. Josh Beekman (upgrade at G)

63. Lamar Woodley (upgrade at OLB)

Pats:

24. Greg Olsen (replaces Daniel Graham)

28. Aaron Ross (future replacement for Samuel)

Bills:

12. Chris Houston (no-brainer,he's either the best or second-best corner in the draft and they just lost Nate Clements)

43. Antonio Pittman (replacement for McGahee)

Dolphins:

9. Levi Brown (their O-line sucked last year)

40. Drew Stanton (QB of the future who will learn on the sidelines for a year or two while Green or Culpeper play)

[#27TheDominator]

I like reading articles like this about other teams, but this Jet analysis leaves something to be desired. Barton didn't play OLB and IMHO he and Hobson weren't any worse at "shedding blocks and filling holes" than the other starting LBs. How is OT not listed? Anthony Clement is a starter. 'Nuff said. I can see not expecting us to burn another #1 on an OT, but it's still more of a need area than say S or LB. I also don't think Kimo played much DT. At the start of the season he was projected to spell DRob, but I don't remember much of it. Besides, Harrell's "skillset" is the same size as Robertson, so I don't see much point in moving DRob outside with Harrell (or Kimo) in the middle.

[Ghost]

I think the Bills are going to be screwed for the next 5 years.

[PeterNorth09]

I think the Bills are going to be screwed for the next 5 years.

You mean to say the Bills are going to be moved in the next 5 years... to LA.

[Ghost]

You mean to say the Bills are going to be moved in the next 5 years... to LA.

How would our division look then ?

[PFSIKH]

You mean to say the Bills are going to be moved in the next 5 years... to LA.

Probably.

Colin Cowherd talked about this a few weeks ago. He cited a trend of population moving from the area of Buffalo, through Western Pennsylvania and into Ohio into the South.

Could Buffalo support a MLB team? It might have the fans to, but economically it would be in the same league as KC and Pittsburgh. If Ralph Wilson is crying about the current CBA in a league designed to protect and make all teams financially competitive, is that not a sign even the little cities might eventually be priced out of competitivness?

Buffalo had an NFL, NBA, NHL and was a candidate for an MLB team. Their NFL team, according to it's owner is struggling and it's NHL team is in a fringe sport. Buffalo is slowly losing it's grasp of being a major league city. Yet, cities like Pheonix, Atlanta and Miami are getting bigger in size and in stature.