Article from NFL.com on turnaround candidates this year

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Searching for a turnaround candidate

By Pat Kirwan

NFL.com Senior Analyst

(May 26, 2005) -- Last year, the San Diego Chargers turned a 4-12 record in 2003 into a 2004 record of 12-4, which was remarkable to say the least. With very little wiggle room left for clubs to improve the 2005 roster, it is time to talk about which teams have a chance to be the 2005 version of the Chargers ... if there is one.

A team with a losing record in 2004 that jumps from last to first in one season is a team that no one sees coming. Not one television personality, magazine or Internet writer, or media outlet claimed to knew the Chargers were headed for the season they had in 2004.

As always, we will have a few new teams in the playoffs this season that were on the outside looking in last season, but the full switch from last to first -- home-field advantage for a playoff game and the fourth-best record in the NFL -- well, that requires a much closer inspection.

Before I narrow down the list to the finalists, it is important to remind everyone who the last-place finishers were in 2004. The Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Bucs, San Francisco 49ers and Washington Redskins were the cellar dwellers last season, and therefore are the only teams eligible to take the "Charger leap" in 2005. Already, it's hard to see a Chargers team in the group.

Not only did the Chargers flip their record from 4-12 to 12-4, but they also flipped their points scored and points given up. In 2003, the Chargers scored 313 points and gave up 441. Last season, they scored 446 points and gave up 313 (the exact number they scored the year before).

The teams with the best chance to flip their point totals would appear to be Tampa Bay and Oakland. The Buccaneers always have had defense, and now with two rookies -- running back Cadillac Williams and tight end Alex Smith -- complementing second-year starting QB Brian Griese in the Jon Gruden system, they have a chance. Oakland has added receiver Randy Moss and running back LaMont Jordan, Kerry Collins is in his second year in Norv Turner's offense, and the defense returns to a 4-3 package, which should help.

Two years ago, the Chargers were giving up on Drew Brees after he threw only 11 touchdowns against 15 interceptions and had a passer rating of 67.5. In 2004, he threw 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions and raised his passer rating to 104.8!

Do any of the last-place quarterbacks in 2004 have the talent and the history to have a similar turnaround in 2005? Here's a look at the 2004 performance of the last-place QBs, and their best all-time NFL season right next to last year.

Team Name '04 QB rating Best-ever QB rating '04 TD/INT ratio Best ever TD/INT ratio

Miami A.J. Feeley 61.7 75.4 11/15 6/5

Cleveland Trent Dilfer 46.1 92.0 1/3 21/11

Tennessee Steve McNair 73.1 100.4 8/9 24/7

Oakland Kerry Collins 74.8 85.4 21/20 22/13

Washington Patrick Ramsey 74.8 75.8 10/11 14/9

Chicago Rex Grossman 67.9 74.8 2/1 2/1

Tampa Bay Brian Griese 97.5 102.9 20/12 19/4

San Francisco Tim Rattay 78.1 96.6 10/10 7/2

Note: Some best-ever QB rating numbers are from incomplete seasons

As you can see, there are a number of teams with inexperienced quarterbacks in the basement during 2004. A.J. Feeley, Tim Rattay and Patrick Ramsey might lose their starting jobs, while Rex Grossman lacks the experience to be a realistic candidate to turn his team around overnight.

Brees threw 909 passes in the NFL coming into the great turnaround season. Only Steve McNair, Trent Dilfer, Collins and Griese have that kind of experience. As one former NFL offensive coordinator said, "There are only four last-place quarterbacks capable of doing what Brees did in 2004, and considering the talent around them and the scheme they play in, only Collins, McNair and Griese have a chance to do what Brees did last year."

LaDainian Tomlinson, as always, had a big impact on the turnaround in San Diego. He touched the ball 392 times last year for 1,776 yards and 18 touchdowns. Here's a look at the main ball carrier for the last-place teams:

Team Player, total 2004 stats

Miami Ronnie Brown, rookie

Cleveland Reuben Droughns, 1,481 yards and 8 TDs

Tennessee Chris Brown, 1,214 yards and 6 TDs

Oakland LaMont Jordan, 591 yards and 2 TDs

Washington Clinton Portis, 1,315 yards and 5 TDs

Chicago Thomas Jones, 1,375 yards and 7 TDs (Cedric Benson, rookie)

Tampa Bay Carnell Williams, rookie

San Francisco Kevan Barlow, 1,034 yards and 7 TDs

Only Clinton Portis had the kind of production Tomlinson produced in 2004. It would not surprise me if none of the rookies came close to the numbers Tomlinson put up, while Jordan, now with more opportunities, could have an impact close to Tomlinson if everything breaks just right.

When it comes to the kicking department, Nate Kaeding scored 114 points for the Bolts. Only Sebastian Janikowski (Oakland) and Phil Dawson (Cleveland) broke 100 points last season among the last-place teams. The only team with the potential to match the Chargers' kicking is the Raiders.

As for the ability to play winning defense, Tampa Bay, Washington and Miami can have a better impact on the season than the Chargers, along with Chicago and even Cleveland putting up numbers close to San Diego.

Now there is a very critical component for the team that wants to pull a San Diego turnaround. Last year, the Chargers had only five playoff teams on their schedule, and even though they went 1-4 against them, they managed to beat every non-playoff team. Chicago, Washington and San Francisco will play six playoff teams while Miami and Oakland will have seven each. Only Cleveland gets five playoff teams.

The teams that finished the strongest in 2004 might also be a good indicator of who will bounce back. In 2003, the Chargers finished the season 2-2 in their last four games to give them some momentum heading into 2004. The only last-place teams this past season to duplicate that record were the Dolphins and Redskins. Every other team finished 0-4 or 1-3.

It's easy to mention a team or teams that will be this year's Chargers. Every day it seems someone is mentioning one team or another as this year's Chargers, but when you drill down into just what they did, it's not hard to conclude that none of these last-place teams have enough going on to pull off the full flip from last to first.

I do believe most of the 2004 cellar dwellers will be better, and possibly one or two of the group could make the playoffs as a wild-card team, but a division title seems like a reach at this point. It might not happen again for years to come.

It is a shame Tennessee is fighting its way out of salary-cap jail and injuries because the Titans have the coach and quarterback to make a run. The Bears will be much better in the second half of the season when their young quarterback has 200 throws under his belt. The 49ers and Browns have long-term rebuilding projects under way.

The Dolphins need a QB to emerge, plus they are in the same division as the world champions. Likewise, the Redskins have to contend with the NFC champion Eagles. I guess I just don't see a Chargers team in 2005.

[Maxman]

I wonder about Oakland. They seem to be the favorite turnaround pick this year. But they smell a lot like the Redskins to me.

They win the offseason but not as many games as predicted. A lot depends on which Collins shows up. He definitely has the tools to work with.

[spjets]

I think oakland and detroit will both be alot better..

oh , and clevland too

as far as miami or chicago..... ..dont see it..

[Maxman]

I think oakland and detroit will both be alot better..

oh , and clevland too

as far as miami or chicago..... ..dont see it..

I wonder about Clev. That is one team that I am not buying into just yet. Especially with Winslow being out and all.

Let Romeo prove his worth. He does have his work cut out for him.