RichardSeymour Posted March 1, 2005 Share Posted March 1, 2005 One of the most disputed stats I like to bring up.... QB W/L record when the opponent scores 18 or more. IMO it's a nifty stat because it provides a perspective on QBs success rates when their defense fails. It's also nifty because most QBs seem to win an AMAZINGLY high % of their games when the opponent scores 17 or less. You'd be surprised. Last time I did this stat Manning, McNair, Favre, and Brady were collectively something absurd like 100-6 over a 3 year period when their opponent scored under 18. Likewise, at 18 and over even the best QBs struggle to reach .500 (.500 is an excellent number on this stat). It's a good splitline. When you get down to it, good QBs *SHOULD* win games where the opponent scores 17 or less.... and even the best QBs can usually only give their team a .500 chance if the opponent scores more. Why 18? 17 points might be the single most common score in the NFL. Right above it makes a good demarcation. IMO better than the 20 point demarcation some others prefer. So, QB W/L over the last 2 years when opponents score 18 or more (playoffs included).... Tom Brady........... 12-4 Marc Bulger.......... 12-11 Peyton Manning..... 11-10 Trent Green........... 11-13 Jake Delhomme....... 9-13 Brett Favre............ 8-9 Daunte Culpepper.... 8-14 Aaron Brooks.......... 7-14 Michael Vick.......... 6-5 Donovan McNabb.... 5-4 Matt Hasselbeck..... 5-14 *Ben Roethlisberger... 4-2 David Carr............. 4-16 Chad Pennington..... 3-5 Jake Plummer......... 3-8 * = only one year as starter Some notes. --- I swear that I had no idea You Know Who would top this list, particularly not so strikingly. Last time I did this (before this season) he was in the same tier as Manning and Favre, all clustered around .500, and I was expecting him to be there again. --- Donovan McNabb's done pretty well when called upon to do heavy lifting--- but he's had to do it remarkably seldom. that Eagles defense has been the most consistant in the league. --- Pennington's # is improving. He had 0 18+ wins in '02. 1 in '03, and 2 in '04. --- Ben Roethlisberger had six games where the Steelers opponent scored over 20 and won four of them. That's really good and inconcistant with the opinion that I've expressed that he may have benefitted from a lack of pressure. --- there are plenty of factors other than the QB here, obviously, so each of these numbers should be looked at in the appropriate subjective context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Posted March 1, 2005 Share Posted March 1, 2005 Thats pretty amazing - one point over 2 TD's and a FG. I wouldn't necessarily consider 2TD's and a FG a complete defensive collapse. Wonder what the numbers look like at 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomShane Posted March 1, 2005 Share Posted March 1, 2005 Interesting stat. However, it's a diluted stat. For instance, if you have a big-time team who gets early leads (coughPATS) and they have the luxury of playing the prevent defense for the 4th quarter and giving up some cheap points, that's not exactly an indicator that Tom Brady is great, it's just an indicator that he's on the best team. Go sh*t in a hat, RS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PFSIKH Posted March 1, 2005 Share Posted March 1, 2005 Interesting stat. However, it's a diluted stat. For instance, if you have a big-time team who gets early leads (coughPATS) and they have the luxury of playing the prevent defense for the 4th quarter and giving up some cheap points, that's not exactly an indicator that Tom Brady is great, it's just an indicator that he's on the best team. Go Sh#t in a hat, RS. That was not as true until this season for the Patriots. IMHO 18 is a little low, but the point is when a defense gives up 20 points, the QB needs to perform and Chad is on the lower end of that spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomShane Posted March 1, 2005 Share Posted March 1, 2005 That was not as true until this season for the Patriots. IMHO 18 is a little low, but the point is when a defense gives up 20 points, the QB needs to perform and Chad is on the lower end of that spectrum. Paul Hackett is at the lower end of that spectrum. Hssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GimmeShelter Posted March 2, 2005 Share Posted March 2, 2005 That was not as true until this season for the Patriots. IMHO 18 is a little low, but the point is when a defense gives up 20 points, the QB needs to perform and Chad is on the lower end of that spectrum. Or right around .500 which as RS points out is where Brady was until this season. Besides Brady, who really does look good on this list when applying the time honored "18 points rule". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted March 2, 2005 Share Posted March 2, 2005 brady deals in black magic - dude's not playing with the same deck as everyone else - the best thing that ever happened to the Pats franchise was when they drafted Tom Brady the second best thing was when Mo Lewis almost killed Drew Bledsoe hey we did it once maybe the JETS can do it again? :twisted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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