Questions before NFL training camps opens

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Ten questions as training camps begin to stir

July 12, 2005

By Clark Judge

CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

Tell Clark your opinion!

This is the month most NFL clubs open training camps, which means this is the month we start asking what we should expect from the coming season. Well, you've come to the right address. Before the pros start practicing, we'll start asking -- and answering -- our top 10 questions about what's in store for 2005.

On the count of three ...

1. Can the New England Patriots win a third straight championship?

Tom Brady is ready to continue advancing New England's dynasty. (Getty Images)

Can they? Absolutely. Will they? No. Now, I'm the genius who predicted they wouldn't do it last year, and we all know what happened. I'm a big believer in learning from the past, and what the past tells us is that 1) No one has won three straight Super Bowls, and 2) the last time a Super Bowl champ lost two coordinators in the same year (San Francisco, 1995) it didn't return to the Big Game. Ever. The Patriots' Bill Belichick deserves all the credit for what he's done the past four years, but he'll need divine intervention to win a third straight Super Bowl -- and Charlie Weis is ahead of him in that line.

2. Is Ricky Williams serious about returning to the game?

It depends on what you mean. Yes, I think he's serious about returning to the Dolphins, but I wouldn't mortgage the farm on a long-term commitment anywhere. I'm not alone here. One AFC general manager who will go unnamed was asked what Williams' trade value was, and his response was to hold up a finger and thumb shaped in the number zero. "How can you trust the guy?" he said. Well, that's a good question. Especially when there's a question about what he should earn this season. Williams believes he's entitled to $3.7 million in base pay under terms of a contract he negotiated in 2002 and insists he won't take the league minimum of $540,000. This from a guy who walked out on the club last year, owes it $8.6 million, and faces a possible drug suspension. "Now that," said the GM, "suggests one thing: All he cares about is the money." Stay tuned.

3. Will Terrell Owens sabotage the Philadelphia Eagles?

No. The Eagles won without him last year, and, if Owens persists in sitting out, they will win without him again this year. You don't mess with the Eagles. They stood firm when Jeremiah Trotter, their leading tackler for three straight years, wanted a bundle three years ago. So they released the guy and went to successive NFC Championship games. Two years later he returned to play for the minimum. There's a lesson there. Owens is proud, obstinate, stubborn, you name it, and may try to stay out, but he turns 32 this year -- which means the clock is winding down -- and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, is not one to hold out clients for a season. If, however, Owens doesn't change his position, the Eagles will move on sans T.O. Yes, he's valuable, but, no, he's not invaluable. There is a difference.

4. Is this the year Kyle Boller is exposed?

No. On the contrary, this is the year Kyle Boller is recognized for what he is -- a quarterback who does just enough for the Ravens to win. Hey, people who love to rip the guy forget he has a career record of 14-10. Boller has a lot going for him: Jim Fassel is running the offense; Derrick Mason and rookie Mark Clayton step in as wide receivers; Jamal Lewis is back; Todd Heap is healthy. Boller doesn't have to be the Peyton Manning of 2004; he has to be the Trent Dilfer of 2000 -- that is, manage the position and minimize his mistakes. He can do it. His interception percentage last year was fourth best in the AFC. Look for the Ravens to give him more room to operate, but if Lewis is rolling and the defense is as good as it appears to be, Boller may spend most of his time handing off to kill the clock.

5. Will Eli Manning be a success?

Yes. The Giants were smart to play him last year when he won one of seven starts. That development will benefit him now, and now is when he starts to separate himself from the pack. Remember how brother Peyton struggled in his first year? He was 3-13 and 1-6 in his first seven games. He was 13-3 the following season and forever thanked then-coach Jim Mora for not pulling him as a rookie. Eli doesn't have Marvin Harrison or Edgerrin James, but he has more weapons than his brother did and a better defense. Look at it this way: Over his last three games he twice had passer ratings of 100-plus and had a total of five touchdowns -- including three in the season finale against Dallas. Manning rallied the Giants in that game for a last-minute win, and it should catapult him -- and the Giants -- to a big season.

6. Do the Falcons take the next step and go to the Super Bowl?

No. In fact, I'm not sure they win their division. That runaway big rig in their rear-view mirror is the Carolina Panthers, which took giant steps forward in the offseason by signing lineman Mike Wahle and cornerback Ken Lucas. Four of the Falcons' wins last year were by three or fewer points -- including an overtime defeat of the Panthers -- and I don't see that happening again. Plus, look at how they open the season: Philadelphia, Seattle, Buffalo, Minnesota and New England. There are four playoff teams in there, folks, including the NFC and AFC champs. And the one that's not won eight of its last 10. The Falcons don't play an opponent with a losing record until Nov. 6 when they go to Miami where the Dolphins are bound to be improved. That's not good.

7. Will Joe Gibbs get it turned around in Washington?

No, and, trust me, it hurts to say it. The classy Gibbs was a great coach who pulled the most out of his clubs in the 1980s. But that was two decades ago, and Gibbs last year seemed out of step with the times. I know, the Redskins changed their offense and blocking schemes, but does anyone really believe this team is better with Santana Moss instead of Laveranues Coles? Without Fred Smoot? Without Antonio Pierce? Plus, what's the deal with Sean Taylor? Then there's this: If the organization doesn't believe it can win with Patrick Ramsey -- as the draft of first-rounder Jason Campbell suggests -- why should we? The problem with Washington is that there hasn't been consistency with the players or the coaching staff since Dan Snyder took over, and that's a recipe for disaster. Fasten your seat belts; it's going to be bumpy ride.

8. Will the Raiders regret acquiring Randy Moss?

What, are you nuts? They just picked up the most dangerous receiver in the game for an offense that is strictly bombs away. So Moss takes plays off. Big deal. All I know is that he played on one leg half of last year and still wound up with 13 touchdowns. The guy's a monster to cover, especially with Kerry Collins throwing it deep, and makes big catches in big games. So he's had his troubles. You think that's something new to the Raiders? This is the team that swears by a Commitment to Petulance. Moss makes the Raiders difficult to defense, especially with Lamont Jordan on the scene as a legit rushing threat. The problem for the Raiders isn't Moss or Jerry Porter or anyone who wants the ball on offense; it's a defense that leaked an AFC-high 442 points last season, including nine games of 30 or more.

9. Should Cincinnati be taken seriously?

Absolutely, and I'll explain why in two words: Carson Palmer. The third-year quarterback should have a breakout season, and that's not based on intuition as much as it is on Palmer's last four starts last year. He threw 11 touchdowns then -- including three in an extraordinary come-from-behind win over Baltimore -- and was on the verge of something big when he was sidelined the last three games with a knee injury. Now he's fine, which makes the Bengals a legit sleeper. They have the 1,000-yard running back. They have the Pro-Bowl receiver. Now they have their best quarterback since Boomer Esiason. Look out above.

10. Is this the year Drew Brees belly flops?

No. Brees was too consistent far too long to believe he's another Scott Mitchell. He had 10 games without an interception and eight with two or more TD passes -- including one with five. Plus, he completed 31 of 42 for 319 yards in his first career playoff game. His surrounding cast remains the same, which means there's LaDainian Tomlinson to carry the ball and Antonio Gates to catch it. Brees was extraordinary last year, with a career-best 104.8 passer rating, 27 TDs and 7 interceptions. I don't expect him to repeat those numbers simply because the competition is better and the road tougher -- with San Diego making a franchise-high five trips into the Eastern time zone. But if the offensive line holds up under new assistant Carl Mauck, there's no reason to believe Brees won't drive this team into the playoffs again.

[faba]

Ten questions as training camps begin to stir

July 12, 2005

By Clark Judge

CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

Tell Clark your opinion!

This is the month most NFL clubs open training camps, which means this is the month we start asking what we should expect from the coming season. Well, you've come to the right address. Before the pros start practicing, we'll start asking -- and answering -- our top 10 questions about what's in store for 2005.

On the count of three ...

1. Can the New England Patriots win a third straight championship?

Tom Brady is ready to continue advancing New England's dynasty. (Getty Images)

Can they? Absolutely. Will they? No. Now, I'm the genius who predicted they wouldn't do it last year, and we all know what happened. I'm a big believer in learning from the past, and what the past tells us is that 1) No one has won three straight Super Bowls, and 2) the last time a Super Bowl champ lost two coordinators in the same year (San Francisco, 1995) it didn't return to the Big Game. Ever. The Patriots' Bill Belichick deserves all the credit for what he's done the past four years, but he'll need divine intervention to win a third straight Super Bowl -- and Charlie Weis is ahead of him in that line.

2. Is Ricky Williams serious about returning to the game?

It depends on what you mean. Yes, I think he's serious about returning to the Dolphins, but I wouldn't mortgage the farm on a long-term commitment anywhere. I'm not alone here. One AFC general manager who will go unnamed was asked what Williams' trade value was, and his response was to hold up a finger and thumb shaped in the number zero. "How can you trust the guy?" he said. Well, that's a good question. Especially when there's a question about what he should earn this season. Williams believes he's entitled to $3.7 million in base pay under terms of a contract he negotiated in 2002 and insists he won't take the league minimum of $540,000. This from a guy who walked out on the club last year, owes it $8.6 million, and faces a possible drug suspension. "Now that," said the GM, "suggests one thing: All he cares about is the money." Stay tuned.

3. Will Terrell Owens sabotage the Philadelphia Eagles?

No. The Eagles won without him last year, and, if Owens persists in sitting out, they will win without him again this year. You don't mess with the Eagles. They stood firm when Jeremiah Trotter, their leading tackler for three straight years, wanted a bundle three years ago. So they released the guy and went to successive NFC Championship games. Two years later he returned to play for the minimum. There's a lesson there. Owens is proud, obstinate, stubborn, you name it, and may try to stay out, but he turns 32 this year -- which means the clock is winding down -- and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, is not one to hold out clients for a season. If, however, Owens doesn't change his position, the Eagles will move on sans T.O. Yes, he's valuable, but, no, he's not invaluable. There is a difference.

4. Is this the year Kyle Boller is exposed?

No. On the contrary, this is the year Kyle Boller is recognized for what he is -- a quarterback who does just enough for the Ravens to win. Hey, people who love to rip the guy forget he has a career record of 14-10. Boller has a lot going for him: Jim Fassel is running the offense; Derrick Mason and rookie Mark Clayton step in as wide receivers; Jamal Lewis is back; Todd Heap is healthy. Boller doesn't have to be the Peyton Manning of 2004; he has to be the Trent Dilfer of 2000 -- that is, manage the position and minimize his mistakes. He can do it. His interception percentage last year was fourth best in the AFC. Look for the Ravens to give him more room to operate, but if Lewis is rolling and the defense is as good as it appears to be, Boller may spend most of his time handing off to kill the clock.

5. Will Eli Manning be a success?

Yes. The Giants were smart to play him last year when he won one of seven starts. That development will benefit him now, and now is when he starts to separate himself from the pack. Remember how brother Peyton struggled in his first year? He was 3-13 and 1-6 in his first seven games. He was 13-3 the following season and forever thanked then-coach Jim Mora for not pulling him as a rookie. Eli doesn't have Marvin Harrison or Edgerrin James, but he has more weapons than his brother did and a better defense. Look at it this way: Over his last three games he twice had passer ratings of 100-plus and had a total of five touchdowns -- including three in the season finale against Dallas. Manning rallied the Giants in that game for a last-minute win, and it should catapult him -- and the Giants -- to a big season.

6. Do the Falcons take the next step and go to the Super Bowl?

No. In fact, I'm not sure they win their division. That runaway big rig in their rear-view mirror is the Carolina Panthers, which took giant steps forward in the offseason by signing lineman Mike Wahle and cornerback Ken Lucas. Four of the Falcons' wins last year were by three or fewer points -- including an overtime defeat of the Panthers -- and I don't see that happening again. Plus, look at how they open the season: Philadelphia, Seattle, Buffalo, Minnesota and New England. There are four playoff teams in there, folks, including the NFC and AFC champs. And the one that's not won eight of its last 10. The Falcons don't play an opponent with a losing record until Nov. 6 when they go to Miami where the Dolphins are bound to be improved. That's not good.

7. Will Joe Gibbs get it turned around in Washington?

No, and, trust me, it hurts to say it. The classy Gibbs was a great coach who pulled the most out of his clubs in the 1980s. But that was two decades ago, and Gibbs last year seemed out of step with the times. I know, the Redskins changed their offense and blocking schemes, but does anyone really believe this team is better with Santana Moss instead of Laveranues Coles? Without Fred Smoot? Without Antonio Pierce? Plus, what's the deal with Sean Taylor? Then there's this: If the organization doesn't believe it can win with Patrick Ramsey -- as the draft of first-rounder Jason Campbell suggests -- why should we? The problem with Washington is that there hasn't been consistency with the players or the coaching staff since Dan Snyder took over, and that's a recipe for disaster. Fasten your seat belts; it's going to be bumpy ride.

8. Will the Raiders regret acquiring Randy Moss?

What, are you nuts? They just picked up the most dangerous receiver in the game for an offense that is strictly bombs away. So Moss takes plays off. Big deal. All I know is that he played on one leg half of last year and still wound up with 13 touchdowns. The guy's a monster to cover, especially with Kerry Collins throwing it deep, and makes big catches in big games. So he's had his troubles. You think that's something new to the Raiders? This is the team that swears by a Commitment to Petulance. Moss makes the Raiders difficult to defense, especially with Lamont Jordan on the scene as a legit rushing threat. The problem for the Raiders isn't Moss or Jerry Porter or anyone who wants the ball on offense; it's a defense that leaked an AFC-high 442 points last season, including nine games of 30 or more.

9. Should Cincinnati be taken seriously?

Absolutely, and I'll explain why in two words: Carson Palmer. The third-year quarterback should have a breakout season, and that's not based on intuition as much as it is on Palmer's last four starts last year. He threw 11 touchdowns then -- including three in an extraordinary come-from-behind win over Baltimore -- and was on the verge of something big when he was sidelined the last three games with a knee injury. Now he's fine, which makes the Bengals a legit sleeper. They have the 1,000-yard running back. They have the Pro-Bowl receiver. Now they have their best quarterback since Boomer Esiason. Look out above.

10. Is this the year Drew Brees belly flops?

No. Brees was too consistent far too long to believe he's another Scott Mitchell. He had 10 games without an interception and eight with two or more TD passes -- including one with five. Plus, he completed 31 of 42 for 319 yards in his first career playoff game. His surrounding cast remains the same, which means there's LaDainian Tomlinson to carry the ball and Antonio Gates to catch it. Brees was extraordinary last year, with a career-best 104.8 passer rating, 27 TDs and 7 interceptions. I don't expect him to repeat those numbers simply because the competition is better and the road tougher -- with San Diego making a franchise-high five trips into the Eastern time zone. But if the offensive line holds up under new assistant Carl Mauck, there's no reason to believe Brees won't drive this team into the playoffs again.