Another reason not to draft Ryan

[madmike1]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

...

[Thai Jet]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135...

I'm just praying that all this talk of the Jets taking Ryan is just that.....talk. With an improved "O" line let's see what our other high draft pick currently on the roster can do.

[GREENSMACKS]

all the jets acquisitions point to mcfadden, if you draft a qb by the time he is already all these fq's we signed will be crapped out

mcfadden takes pressure off the QB, as though he was an olineman. its a taylor/AP combo and gives kellen amuch needed weapon. plus the jets need a face to market

[Sperm Edwards]

Mike you can't be serious. Throwing two names out there of sucky QB's and then saying that means he'll end up just like them because of it? Were they all in similar offenses? Did they all have similar crappy protection? Did they all have similar lousy receivers?

I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum if we don't take Ryan, but consider:

Dan Marino completed 57.6% of his passes at Pittsburgh. Overall, he threw 79 td's and 69 int's. As a senior he threw 17 td's and 23 int's for a ncaa qb rating of 67.3. Given that, you not only would have chosen Ken O'Brien 100x out of 100 over him; you clearly wouldn't have touched Marino until the 6th round. If that.

Carson Palmer's college completion percentage? 59.2%.

Peyton Manning as a senior? 60.4%

Jay Cutler? 57%

Brett Favre? 53%

But David Carr completed 63% of his career passes at Fresno State with a 70-23 TD/INT ratio for his career. As a senior, had a 64.5% completion percentage and a 46-9 TD/INT ratio. So clearly he turned into the best QB among all of them.

Also check out the completion percentage of these recent college studs that went on to be the greatest passers in the NFL:

Alex Smith 66%

Tim Couch 67%

Matt Leinart 65%

Pretty weak.

[AFJF]

Mike you can't be serious. Throwing two names out there of sucky QB's and then saying that means he'll end up just like them because of it? Were they all in similar offenses? Did they all have similar crappy protection? Did they all have similar lousy receivers?

I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum if we don't take Ryan, but consider:

Dan Marino completed 57.6% of his passes at Pittsburgh. Overall, he threw 79 td's and 69 int's. As a senior he threw 17 td's and 23 int's for a ncaa qb rating of 67.3. Given that, you not only would have chosen Ken O'Brien 100x out of 100 over him; you clearly wouldn't have touched Marino until the 6th round. If that.

Carson Palmer's college completion percentage? 59.2%.

Peyton Manning as a senior? 60.4%

Jay Cutler? 57%

Brett Favre? 53%

But David Carr completed 63% of his career passes at Fresno State with a 70-23 TD/INT ratio for his career. As a senior, had a 64.5% completion percentage and a 46-9 TD/INT ratio. So clearly he turned into the best QB among all of them.

Also check out the completion percentage of these recent college studs that went on to be the greatest passers in the NFL:

Alex Smith 66%

Tim Couch 67%

Matt Leinart 65%

Pretty weak.

Great break down Sperm. You can't pass on a guy who you think has talent because his stats resemble other players, from other schools who played different schedules in different years. Spot on with the Marino vs. O' Brien breakdown.

[Irish Jet]

The main reason I don't think we'll draft Ryan is because so far, this off-season has been about making moves to win right now. IMO the only times a team selects a QB that high is when it's completely re-building for the future. From the look of it we seem to be building towards right now, which is why I think we will take a more 'immediate impact' player such as McFadden or Gholston.

I would still be delighted if we did draft Ryan, I honestly believe that he is a great prospect.

[Curtis Martin 28]

Mike you can't be serious. Throwing two names out there of sucky QB's and then saying that means he'll end up just like them because of it? Were they all in similar offenses? Did they all have similar crappy protection? Did they all have similar lousy receivers?

I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum if we don't take Ryan, but consider:

Dan Marino completed 57.6% of his passes at Pittsburgh. Overall, he threw 79 td's and 69 int's. As a senior he threw 17 td's and 23 int's for a ncaa qb rating of 67.3. Given that, you not only would have chosen Ken O'Brien 100x out of 100 over him; you clearly wouldn't have touched Marino until the 6th round. If that.

Carson Palmer's college completion percentage? 59.2%.

Peyton Manning as a senior? 60.4%

Jay Cutler? 57%

Brett Favre? 53%

But David Carr completed 63% of his career passes at Fresno State with a 70-23 TD/INT ratio for his career. As a senior, had a 64.5% completion percentage and a 46-9 TD/INT ratio. So clearly he turned into the best QB among all of them.

Also check out the completion percentage of these recent college studs that went on to be the greatest passers in the NFL:

Alex Smith 66%

Tim Couch 67%

Matt Leinart 65%

Pretty weak.

Exactly. Post of the Week.

[Irish Jet]

Exactly. Post of the Week.

Aww jeez. Sperm has enough of these. He should be banned from the contest.

[tparich]

There is no one in the draft that does not have "reasons" to not draft them.

[Sperm Edwards]

Great break down Sperm. You can't pass on a guy who you think has talent because his stats resemble other players, from other schools who played different schedules in different years. Spot on with the Marino vs. O' Brien breakdown.

Well it's ridiculous. Hey, I would like an upgrade at QB and have readily admitted I haven't seen much of Ryan. But throwing college stats out there is pretty friggin' dumb. With that logic, Felix Jones should be the #1 pick in the country & considered the best prospect to come out since Bo Jackson because he averaged 9 yards per carry and scored a TD on almost 10% of his carries.

Completion percentage is important. But even the quote went out of its way to say that BC used a lot of downfield passing all year. Call it a hunch, but there would have been fewer interceptions and a higher completion percentage if he was throwing safe little dumpoffs. Fewer still if he had some decent protection. His best OLman was apparently a solid RT forced into playing out of position at LT due to BC having no one else there.

Oh, and I'd like someone to name all of BC's wonderful WR's now. Is there even a single one expected to be in an NFL training camp this summer? They had that one decent (sophomore) TE who got 20% of his yards and half of his TD's in one loss against Maryland. Even still, he's a TE in a downfield passing attack and there isn't a single WR on BC's team expected to be even a 7th round draft pick in 2008 or 2009. And somehow he threw 31 TD's.

[CoachTsurfing]

I think all the talk about Ryan is just that talk. We know that if he slides to us and the top three that we are targeting are gone we want to trade down. There are a few times that really like Ryan, the ravens, the panthers to name a few. I'm not sold on Clemens, it's just that I don't think he got that fair of a shake considering how our line did.

[L.I.MikeBleedsGreen]

The Jets won't draft Ryan because he will not be there at 6. He will be drafted by Herm and the Chiefs and Atlanta will take Dorsey if the Rams grab howie's son Chris at 2.But if the Rams grab Dorsey then the Falcons have to grab Ryan.

[madmike1]

Well it's ridiculous. Hey, I would like an upgrade at QB and have readily admitted I haven't seen much of Ryan. But throwing college stats out there is pretty friggin' dumb. With that logic, Felix Jones should be the #1 pick in the country & considered the best prospect to come out since Bo Jackson because he averaged 9 yards per carry and scored a TD on almost 10% of his carries.

Completion percentage is important. But even the quote went out of its way to say that BC used a lot of downfield passing all year. Call it a hunch, but there would have been fewer interceptions and a higher completion percentage if he was throwing safe little dumpoffs. Fewer still if he had some decent protection. His best OLman was apparently a solid RT forced into playing out of position at LT due to BC having no one else there.

Oh, and I'd like someone to name all of BC's wonderful WR's now. Is there even a single one expected to be in an NFL training camp this summer? They had that one decent (sophomore) TE who got 20% of his yards and half of his TD's in one loss against Maryland. Even still, he's a TE in a downfield passing attack and there isn't a single WR on BC's team expected to be even a 7th round draft pick in 2008 or 2009. And somehow he threw 31 TD's.

Sperm, I understand your points however there are just TOO MANY big question marks about Ryan to take him that high. When you take a QB no4 or no6 overall and miss it sets your franchise back 4 years at least. I'm not willing to bet 4 years on a QB with as many question makes as Ryan has especially with the Jets being an older win now kind of team right now.

[Ghost]

Great break down Sperm. You can't pass on a guy who you think has talent because his stats resemble other players, from other schools who played different schedules in different years. Spot on with the Marino vs. O' Brien breakdown.

Good post.

[aec4]

The main reason I don't think we'll draft Ryan is because so far, this off-season has been about making moves to win right now. IMO the only times a team selects a QB that high is when it's completely re-building for the future. From the look of it we seem to be building towards right now, which is why I think we will take a more 'immediate impact' player such as McFadden or Gholston.

I would still be delighted if we did draft Ryan, I honestly believe that he is a great prospect.

I'd argue Ryan gives us a better chance to win NOW than Pennington/Clemens does.

Now will a McFadden type guy give us even a greater chance? That's up to debate.

However, I'll say this. If Ryan is taken at 6, I better see him on the field in Miami for week 1.

[L.I.MikeBleedsGreen]

I'd argue Ryan gives us a better chance to win NOW than Pennington/Clemens does.

Now will a McFadden type guy give us even a greater chance? That's up to debate.

However, I'll say this. If Ryan is taken at 6, I better see him on the field in Miami for week 1.

Yeah ...ok Like that's going to happen, Don't hold your breathe

[Gainzo]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135...

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

What point is David Lewin trying to make with this article?

He points out that opposing defenses knew that Ryan was going to throw the ball and then uses Ryan's 59% completion rate against him.

The comparisons with Ramsey & Grossman are ridiculous.

[raffyD]

Sperm, I understand your points however there are just TOO MANY big question marks about Ryan to take him that high. When you take a QB no4 or no6 overall and miss it sets your franchise back 4 years at least. I'm not willing to bet 4 years on a QB with as many question makes as Ryan has especially with the Jets being an older win now kind of team right now.

I think this is a big misconception right now. I don't think we're an older win now team. I checked out the jets roster and out of a total 70 players I counted about 15 players (~21%) that are 30 or older, about 9 players (~13%) that are 28 or 29 and about 42 players (60%) that are age 26 and under (what I consider football young). This does not even include the 5 or 6 draft picks that will most likely be between 21 and 24 years of age.

Some of the guys in the 'young' category: Leon, Revis, Harris, Rhodes, Cotch, Mangold, D'brick, Elam and Clemens. Not a bad young core to be honest.

[madmike1]

I think this is a big misconception right now. I don't think we're an older win now team. I checked out the jets roster and out of a total 70 players I counted about 15 players (~21%) that are 30 or older, about 9 players (~13%) that are 28 or 29 and about 42 players (60%) that are age 26 and under (what I consider football young). This does not even include the 5 or 6 draft picks that will most likely be between 21 and 24 years of age.

Some of the guys in the 'young' category: Leon, Revis, Harris, Rhodes, Cotch, Mangold, D'brick, Elam and Clemens. Not a bad young core to be honest.

Yeah but they just spent 140 million on FA's. Thats a win now move.

[raffyD]

Yeah but they just spent 140 million on FA's. Thats a win now move.

No doubt. But my thinking is that the current NFL is truly a win now league, i.e., can't sit on your hands and hope the team grows older and better. You have to have that mix of veterans and youth every year so that you can at least attempt to be successful every year.

I may eat these words but I think the Ryan interest is pure smokescreen to get a trade offer from one of the lower clubs. Saturday is going to be fun.

[DaBrick Wall]

Yeah but they just spent 140 million on FA's. Thats a win now move.

I agree with you, but if this was a "win now" team they probably would start Chad Pennington. Is Kellen Clemens really a "win now" quarterback? What has he proven? I really don't want to select Matt Ryan, but it's not like they'd be taking someone with much less experience than our starting QB right now.

[Boozer76]

I'd argue Ryan gives us a better chance to win NOW than Pennington/Clemens does.

Now will a McFadden type guy give us even a greater chance? That's up to debate.

However, I'll say this. If Ryan is taken at 6, I better see him on the field in Miami for week 1.

This is why Jets fans will never be satisfied. QB is a position where the player needs time to develop. Realistically it is a full 3 years on the bench and then his first season starting it about average to slightly above average. Throw a guy out there in his first year and he's almost guaranteed to suck badly. Not many of them recover from being thrown out there too early. Most of them end up in the realm of the David Carr's and Tim Couch's.

If we draft Matt Ryan then sit him for at least his first season, maybe 2 if need be. Carson Palmer sat out his first full season and, quite frankly, Matt Ryan sure as hell is no Carson Palmer.

QB's need time, plain and simple. You will not know what they really are capable of for 3 years. This is why it is so preposterous that we make any type of judgement on Kellen Clemens based on last season. Yes, Clemens very well may completely suck when he reaches his peak, but NOBODY knows what his peak is just yet. We really won't until the end of this upcoming season assuming he starts the whole year.

[madmike1]

I agree with you, but if this was a "win now" team they probably would start Chad Pennington. Is Kellen Clemens really a "win now" quarterback? What has he proven? I really don't want to select Matt Ryan, but it's not like they'd be taking someone with much less experience than our starting QB right now.

Pennington isn't a win now or win later QB at this point. Clemens has to play.

[SayNoToDMC]

This thread is retarded, I don't think there is a single skill position player from BC's offense that will ever play an NFL snap besides Ryan. This is one of the single dumbest things I've seen leading up to the draft and I have no interest in the Jets drafting Ryan. Ryan carried that teams offense.

[Gainzo]

This is why Jets fans will never be satisfied. QB is a position where the player needs time to develop. Realistically it is a full 3 years on the bench and then his first season starting it about average to slightly above average. Throw a guy out there in his first year and he's almost guaranteed to suck badly. Not many of them recover from being thrown out there too early. Most of them end up in the realm of the David Carr's and Tim Couch's.

If we draft Matt Ryan then sit him for at least his first season, maybe 2 if need be. Carson Palmer sat out his first full season and, quite frankly, Matt Ryan sure as hell is no Carson Palmer.

QB's need time, plain and simple. You will not know what they really are capable of for 3 years. This is why it is so preposterous that we make any type of judgement on Kellen Clemens based on last season. Yes, Clemens very well may completely suck when he reaches his peak, but NOBODY knows what his peak is just yet. We really won't until the end of this upcoming season assuming he starts the whole year.

Drew Bledsoe started 12 games in his rookie year. Tom Brady sat for 1 year and 2 games (behind Bledsoe, ironically) before coming the starter.

Peyton Manning started from Day 1.

Dan Marino started 9 games in 1983 and the Dolphins went 12-4. Why do you feel that rookie QB's need time to develop?

[Arsis]

Drew Bledsoe started 12 games in his rookie year. Tom Brady sat for 1 year and 2 games (behind Bledsoe, ironically) before coming the starter.

Peyton Manning started from Day 1.

Dan Marino started 9 games in 1983 and the Dolphins went 12-4. Why do you feel that rookie QB's need time to develop?

You're using 3 qb's in the history on the nfl to prove your point? only 3? I think your prove the point opposite of the one you are trying to make.

[aec4]

Yeah ...ok Like that's going to happen, Don't hold your breathe

Then you don't draft him and give him 20M guaranteed. That's all I'm saying.

[Gainzo]

You're using 3 qb's in the history on the nfl to prove your point? only 3? I think your prove the point opposite of the one you are trying to make.

Do you want more examples? I can find them. Jim Kelly & Boomer Esiason come to mind.

[Boozer76]

Do you want more examples? I can find them. Jim Kelly & Boomer Esiason come to mind.

Here's a few that started from day 1 as well:

David Carr

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Vince Young (the most overhyped terrible QB I've seen)

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Michael Vick

Drew Brees (he sucked for almost 4 seasons, don't forget)

Daunte Culpepper

Ryan Leaf

Charlie Batch

Brian Griese

Jim Druckenmiller

Jake Plummer

Tony Banks

Bobby Hoying

Kerry Collins

Todd Collins

Heath Shuler

Trent Dilfer

Rick Mirer

David Klingler

Dan McGwire

Todd Marinovich

All of the above QB's are first or 2nd rounders (maybe a couple 3rds) who pretty much got thrown right in in their rookie season since the 1991 draft.

[Gainzo]

Here's a few that started from day 1 as well:

David Carr

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Vince Young (the most overhyped terrible QB I've seen)

Byron Leftwich

Kyle Boller

Joey Harrington

Patrick Ramsey

Michael Vick

Drew Brees (he sucked for almost 4 seasons, don't forget)

Daunte Culpepper

Ryan Leaf

Charlie Batch

Brian Griese

Jim Druckenmiller

Jake Plummer

Tony Banks

Bobby Hoying

Kerry Collins

Todd Collins

Heath Shuler

Trent Dilfer

Rick Mirer

David Klingler

Dan McGwire

Todd Marinovich

All of the above QB's are first or 2nd rounders (maybe a couple 3rds) who pretty much got thrown right in in their rookie season since the 1991 draft.

I don't have the time to look up the stats but a lot those QB's have taken their teams to the playoffs.

[SayNoToDMC]

Drew Bledsoe started 12 games in his rookie year. Tom Brady sat for 1 year and 2 games (behind Bledsoe, ironically) before coming the starter.

Peyton Manning started from Day 1.

Dan Marino started 9 games in 1983 and the Dolphins went 12-4. Why do you feel that rookie QB's need time to develop?

These guys are the exception, not the rule. You either know that and are just looking to start an argument, or you really believe it and you aren't worth arguing with. The difference in the level of play and the preparation required between college and the NFL is huge, especially at the QB position.

[Boozer76]

I don't have the time to look up the stats but a lot those QB's have taken their teams to the playoffs.

But are ANY of them QB's that you would go back in time and STILL spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on (besides Brees).

[Vudu]

Screw Matt Ryan.

D-MC!!!!:)

[#27TheDominator]

These guys are the exception, not the rule. You either know that and are just looking to start an argument, or you really believe it and you aren't worth arguing with. The difference in the level of play and the preparation required between college and then NFL is huge, especially at the QB position.

QBs are better off with time to develop, but are there any QBs that needed three years on the bench and then a year or two starting to develop that you think are worth drafting at #6? If the guys are that good they are usually ready to start sooner rather than later and our QB situation is way more unsettled than any other position except maybe #2 CB.

[Gainzo]

But are ANY of them QB's that you would go back in time and STILL spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on (besides Brees).

There have been plenty of good QB's picked in the 1st round as well. The draft is what it is. For every bust you have mentioned there have been plenty of good ones.

It's not my fault that the crappy teams in the NFL make bad choices.