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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/michael_lombardi/05/14/nfl.myths/?eref=sircrc

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Michael Lombardi > INSIDE THE NFL

Myth busters: Addressing three common misperceptions in the NFL

Story Highlights

  • Running the ball early is a good way to get behind
  • Shut-down corners have gone the way of the dinosaur
  • Beware of misleading turnover-ratio statistics

Nothing drives me crazier than watching an NFL game on television and hearing announcers trot out tired clich

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I read that yesterday also....it was a great article....I had already believed the first two, but never thought about the turnover ratio and including missed field goals....it's really common sense the way the writer explains it.

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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/michael_lombardi/05/14/nfl.myths/?eref=sircrc

michael_lombardi.jpg

Michael Lombardi > INSIDE THE NFL

Myth busters: Addressing three common misperceptions in the NFL

Story Highlights

  • Running the ball early is a good way to get behind
  • Shut-down corners have gone the way of the dinosaur
  • Beware of misleading turnover-ratio statistics

Nothing drives me crazier than watching an NFL game on television and hearing announcers trot out tired clich

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Interesting article...

Here is my problem with throwing the football.

Did any of those teams ranked there win the Super Bowl last year since this is what he is basing it on ?

I'm curious on what the Giants numbers were last year ?

That is what everyone makes it out to when it comes to the Jets. We are so starved for a Super Bowl that anything less now is failure.

Lombardi brings up Walsh and his short passing game. Well we have been screaming about how everything is short, short, short and nothing goes deep and the 3 and 8 Hackett draws. So which is it ?

Maybe I'm old fashioned but to me I would take Cowher credo of running to football and playing defense or a guy like Parcells who tailor his team to what the talent he has to throwing the football all over the yard.

JMHO

There's no right answer for every team in every situation. It depends on your talent and who you're playing against. And under Parcells, Bledsoe had 3 of the top 5 single-season pass-attempt totals in NFL history.

If Kordell Stewart is your QB and you have a healthy Jerome Bettis & a dominant OL & defense, you run the ball as often as you can. If Tom Brady is your QB and your RB is a half-healthy Lawrence Maroney...or a fully healthy Heath Evans/Kyle Eckel, you're going to throw more.

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Like anything in life, balance and moderation are the keys to being sucessful.

Any broad reaching generalization can be disproven by a set of statistical variances.

Those teams that ran the fewest in the NFL, notice anything common about them? They all have pretty damn good quarterbacks. That just may be an iota of a reason why the elect to pass, and why their teams do pretty well.

Turnovers kill teams. I will never be swayed from that argument. Are all turnovers created equal? Of course not, we realize that the Hail Mary at the end of the half is not a crisis situation.

The effect of the turnover is not only a field position one, but one of psychological and physical effects. They can turn momentum. A defense may not be mentally prepared to come on the field.

Can a missed FG have similar effects? Yes, but I would argue not as sudden or damaging.

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Like anything in life, balance and moderation are the keys to being sucessful.

Any broad reaching generalization can be disproven by a set of statistical variances.

Those teams that ran the fewest in the NFL, notice anything common about them? They all have pretty damn good quarterbacks. That just may be an iota of a reason why the elect to pass, and why their teams do pretty well.

Turnovers kill teams. I will never be swayed from that argument. Are all turnovers created equal? Of course not, we realize that the Hail Mary at the end of the half is not a crisis situation.

The effect of the turnover is not only a field position one, but one of psychological and physical effects. They can turn momentum. A defense may not be mentally prepared to come on the field.

Can a missed FG have similar effects? Yes, but I would argue not as sudden or damaging.

He isn't diminishing the effect of turnovers, he is saying lets be smart about it and adjust for missed FG's and hail maries and evaluate how damaging the turnovers were. Despite the fact that the Giants won the Super Bowl with an awful turnover ratio, they did not reach their full potential as a team until they stopped turning it over in the playoffs.

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He isn't diminishing the effect of turnovers, he is saying lets be smart about it and adjust for missed FG's and hail maries and evaluate how damaging the turnovers were. Despite the fact that the Giants won the Super Bowl with an awful turnover ratio, they did not reach their full potential as a team until they stopped turning it over in the playoffs.

So, in other words, turnovers are very detrimental and once a team stops committing them they have a much better chance.

I will continue to feel that a missed FG is less costly than a turnover, in a general sense.

The author used some very loose interpretations of how he analyzed specific criteria, and tried to draw some conclusion based on those loose interpretations.

It seemed a little lazy. Notice how he only listed FIVE playoff teams and the support of passing in the 1st half. Wonder why he did not list ALL 12 playoff teams and their rankings on that criteria? Did they just not support his agenda, so he left them out?

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Herman Edwards' head just exploded. Joe "If they run the ball 30+ times, they'll win the game" Theissmann's too. I have caught myself abotu to throw the remote through the TV watching Theissmann say that(or Edwards' mismanagement of the Jets).

It really is common sense; if you get ahead, the other team has to catch up. The further you're ahead, the better, because as time runs down the choices a trailing team can make v/v run/pass get difficult. Nobody down 10-14 points with under 10 minutes in the 4th quarter is gonna run and burn 30-45 seconds on the clock and huddle up(unless your team is in fact run by an imbecile like Edwards). Any drive that doesn't end in points for you is a failure, and only less so if it's a FG rather than a TD. Winning teams are more likely to sport gaudy running yard totals not because they "establish the run" but because they got ahead early and ran the clock down. And same thing; if you are behind in a game, the more likely any error is going to cost you that much more if you trail than if you're ahead.

And this is also why a guy like Gholston, a premier pass rusher is more a need than a great CB. You have to disrupt the pass, otherwise a guy like Brady will sooner or later pick you apart if his line holds and coverage breaks down.No matter how good a CB may be, if you give a good QB time, he'll get his open man. iWhich is why with all his faults the Chiefs giving up on Jared Allen could be the worst of the offseason.Those guys can change games by disrutping good offenses; you don't dump them.

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For someone who's debunking myths he sure appears to be a big believer in the latest of NFL myths: Pass rush is the only thing that's needed to make a good defense.

Other than that, I have to say that these myths pretty much lost all support a long time ago. Except from Herm Edwards, maybe.

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