Im sure this has been brought up already...

[Matt39]

But wtf was Mangini thinking accepting that penalty that resulted in a first down? I guess he knew we'd get a pick 6 out of it.

[Maxman]

But wtf was Mangini thinking accepting that penalty that resulted in a first down? I guess he knew we'd get a pick 6 out of it.

He knew it. He mouthed it to Sutton on the sidelines. I am an expert lip reader.

He said, "Lets push them back, they will complete a long pass for a 1st down and people will kill me for it. But eventually Smith will pick off an Edwards pass and take it back for a touchdown".

Sutton nodded in agreement and then added, "Smith still has that head thing, Elam is in there right now.

[NY JETS 29]

Yes, very dumb from a fans standpoint, but in the same sense the way the defense was playing early and getting pressure on Edwards I can see why he would possibly just want to back them up more with the wind blowing which would make a FG tougher. All and all, we benefited with a pick 6, but I would hope that if it happend again he would do it differently because at the end of the day it was a very dumb move.

[CTM]

Yes, very dumb from a fans standpoint, but in the same sense the way the defense was playing early and getting pressure on Edwards I can see why he would possibly just want to back them up more with the wind blowing which would make a FG tougher. All and all, we benefited with a pick 6, but I would hope that if it happend again he would do it differently because at the end of the day it was a very dumb move.

The way the defense was playing? At that point the Bill has been pwning us through the air..

Seriously that was one of the dumbest game day decisions I've ever seen a coach make, it's amazing that Elam picked him up like that..

[Jetfan13]

Heres the scoop:

originaly the refs blew the call and said they were shiort of the 1st. Naturaly Mangini refused the penalty to get the ball there. Then the Bills challenged the spot. It WAS a 1st down so then Mangini accepted the penalty and forced them to kick..a terrible kick also I might add

oh wait, wrong penalty right?

dis-regard

[faba]

Mangini got lucky that we picked off the pass there or he would have been roasted by the media if we lost.

[Klecko73isGod]

It actually was not that bad of a call. The penalty made it 3rd and 16 and pushed the Bills out of FG range. The key here is the out of FG range part. I'd be willing to bet that 95% of NFL coaches make the same call.

The thought process is simple. Decline the penalty and they have a 4th and 11 with a long but makeable FG try coming up. Accept the penalty and its 3rd and 16 and they are out of FG range.

You have to have faith in your defense being able to stop a team from getting a first down in that situation. 90% of the time a team will not convert on 3rd and 16.

You figure the offense will most likely play it safe and run the ball or try a screen to pick up the lost yardage and try the FG. If they do, no harm, no foul, you just delayed the inevitable.

If they try to pick up the first down through the air there are four possible outcomes: they get the first down, you get a sack and knock them further out of FG range, incomplete pass and they're still out of FG range, turnover. The odds are in the defense's favor.

The only way this was a bad call by Mangini is if you don't employ any logic whatsoever. It just didn't work out. 95% of NFL coaches make the same call in that situation.

It's not that it was a bad call, it was a bad outcome. Big difference.

[ChadLover]

I forget what yard they were on but I remmeber thinking it was still a makeable FG. I thought it was a bad call but gutsy and it ended up working.

[CoachTsurfing]

The way the defense was playing? At that point the Bill has been pwning us through the air..

Seriously that was one of the dumbest game day decisions I've ever seen a coach make, it's amazing that Elam picked him up like that..

Yeah, to start with the Bills were killing us in the air. I jumped out of my seat at the espn club so fast the guy next to spilt his drink. Then we intercepted and I bought him a new one.

[CTM]

It actually was not that bad of a call. The penalty made it 3rd and 16 and pushed the Bills out of FG range. The key here is the out of FG range part. I'd be willing to bet that 95% of NFL coaches make the same call.

The thought process is simple. Decline the penalty and they have a 4th and 11 with a long but makeable FG try coming up. Accept the penalty and its 3rd and 16 and they are out of FG range.

You have to have faith in your defense being able to stop a team from getting a first down in that situation. 90% of the time a team will not convert on 3rd and 16.

You figure the offense will most likely play it safe and run the ball or try a screen to pick up the lost yardage and try the FG. If they do, no harm, no foul, you just delayed the inevitable.

If they try to pick up the first down through the air there are four possible outcomes: they get the first down, you get a sack and knock them further out of FG range, incomplete pass and they're still out of FG range, turnover. The odds are in the defense's favor.

The only way this was a bad call by Mangini is if you don't employ any logic whatsoever. It just didn't work out. 95% of NFL coaches make the same call in that situation.

It's not that it was a bad call, it was a bad outcome. Big difference.

Dude, it turned a 42 yard FG into a 47 yarder assuming they didn't advance the ball at all on third down. Lindell hit a 53 yarder later in the game and I myself heard Mangini talk about how good he was in the pre game.

Besides that, up till then Edwards was 7 for 8 and we've routinely seen this defense get killed with short stuff and screens. There was no question in my mind that they were at a minimum going to get a closer FG try..

[Thai Jet]

It actually was not that bad of a call. The penalty made it 3rd and 16 and pushed the Bills out of FG range. The key here is the out of FG range part. I'd be willing to bet that 95% of NFL coaches make the same call.

The thought process is simple. Decline the penalty and they have a 4th and 11 with a long but makeable FG try coming up. Accept the penalty and its 3rd and 16 and they are out of FG range.

You have to have faith in your defense being able to stop a team from getting a first down in that situation. 90% of the time a team will not convert on 3rd and 16.

You figure the offense will most likely play it safe and run the ball or try a screen to pick up the lost yardage and try the FG. If they do, no harm, no foul, you just delayed the inevitable.

If they try to pick up the first down through the air there are four possible outcomes: they get the first down, you get a sack and knock them further out of FG range, incomplete pass and they're still out of FG range, turnover. The odds are in the defense's favor.

The only way this was a bad call by Mangini is if you don't employ any logic whatsoever. It just didn't work out. 95% of NFL coaches make the same call in that situation.

It's not that it was a bad call, it was a bad outcome. Big difference.

I have no problem with the call at the time either. That wind at the Ralph makes FG's harder. Another 5 yds. and they miss it.

[Thai Jet]

Mangini got lucky that we picked off the pass there or he would have been roasted by the media if we lost.

He's being roasted here anyway.

[JohnnyHector]

Dude, it turned a 42 yard FG into a 47 yarder assuming they didn't advance the ball at all on third down. Lindell hit a 53 yarder later in the game and I myself heard Mangini talk about how good he was in the pre game.

Besides that, up till then Edwards was 7 for 8 and we've routinely seen this defense get killed with short stuff and screens. There was no question in my mind that they were at a minimum going to get a closer FG try..

I concur...my father and I both agreed at the time that it was a bad move that would end up hurting them. Luckily, the pick-6 bailed them out.

[JohnnyHector]

I have no problem with the call at the time either. That wind at the Ralph makes FG's harder. Another 5 yds. and they miss it.

Except that, as CTM pointed out, Lindell hit a 53-yarder with ease into the wind later in the game...

[Klecko73isGod]

Dude, it turned a 42 yard FG into a 47 yarder assuming they didn't advance the ball at all on third down. Lindell hit a 53 yarder later in the game and I myself heard Mangini talk about how good he was in the pre game.

Besides that, up till then Edwards was 7 for 8 and we've routinely seen this defense get killed with short stuff and screens. There was no question in my mind that they were at a minimum going to get a closer FG try..

And that's why you're not an NFL coach, because you are miserably negative and as such would be the most conservative coach in NFL history.

The bottom line here is that the decision actually did end up working out in the Jets favor. The Bills did not score. The decision gave the Jets additional opportunities to stop the Bills and make something happen, which they did.

If Mangini declines that penalty, the Bills go up 10-6, there is no pick 6 by Elam. On their next trip to the redzone the Bills do not go for it on 4th down and kick the FG, putting them up 13-6, a lead they then take into halftime. If the second half then plays out mostly the way it did, or with Favre being in a position where he had to pass on the Jets final possession because we a trailing and throws another pick, costing us the game, we lose.

No what do you think of that decision? Guess what, whether you liked it at the time or not, it probably won us the friggin' game.

[JohnnyHector]

And that's why you're not an NFL coach, because you are miserably negative and as such would be the most conservative coach in NFL history.

The bottom line here is that the decision actually did end up working out in the Jets favor. The Bills did not score. The decision gave the Jets additional opportunities to stop the Bills and make something happen, which they did.

If Mangini declines that penalty, the Bills go up 10-6, there is no pick 6 by Elam. On their next trip to the redzone the Bills do not go for it on 4th down and kick the FG, putting them up 13-6, a lead they then take into halftime. If the second half then plays out mostly the way it did, or with Favre being in a position where he had to pass on the Jets final possession because we a trailing and throws another pick, costing us the game, we lose.

No what do you think of that decision? Guess what, whether you liked it at the time or not, it probably won us the friggin' game.

Are you really defending the decision based on the unpredictable (and unlikely) result of the Jets picking off Edwards in the redzone and returning it for a TD?

Sorry, I'm not a results-oriented person. Just because a decision worked out doesn't mean it was the right one, given the facts and circumstances at the time of that decision. It's like playing cards - if you get your money in the pot as a 4-1 favorite and some guys sucks out, it doesn't mean you made the wrong decision and he made the right one. Run the same situation over 100 times and see what the outcome would be.

[CTM]

And that's why you're not an NFL coach, because you are miserably negative and as such would be the most conservative coach in NFL history.

The bottom line here is that the decision actually did end up working out in the Jets favor. The Bills did not score. The decision gave the Jets additional opportunities to stop the Bills and make something happen, which they did.

If Mangini declines that penalty, the Bills go up 10-6, there is no pick 6 by Elam. On their next trip to the redzone the Bills do not go for it on 4th down and kick the FG, putting them up 13-6, a lead they then take into halftime. If the second half then plays out mostly the way it did, or with Favre being in a position where he had to pass on the Jets final possession because we a trailing and throws another pick, costing us the game, we lose.

No what do you think of that decision? Guess what, whether you liked it at the time or not, it probably won us the friggin' game.

Yes, this all makes perfect sense...

Better to be lucky then smart. Got it.

And ftr, I would not be a conservative coach. I doesn't take a negative person to realize we haven't been good all season at defending the pass so why give them another opportunity to convert.

[Green DNA]

It actually was not that bad of a call. The penalty made it 3rd and 16 and pushed the Bills out of FG range. The key here is the out of FG range part. I'd be willing to bet that 95% of NFL coaches make the same call.

The thought process is simple. Decline the penalty and they have a 4th and 11 with a long but makeable FG try coming up. Accept the penalty and its 3rd and 16 and they are out of FG range.

You have to have faith in your defense being able to stop a team from getting a first down in that situation. 90% of the time a team will not convert on 3rd and 16.

You figure the offense will most likely play it safe and run the ball or try a screen to pick up the lost yardage and try the FG. If they do, no harm, no foul, you just delayed the inevitable.

If they try to pick up the first down through the air there are four possible outcomes: they get the first down, you get a sack and knock them further out of FG range, incomplete pass and they're still out of FG range, turnover. The odds are in the defense's favor.

The only way this was a bad call by Mangini is if you don't employ any logic whatsoever. It just didn't work out. 95% of NFL coaches make the same call in that situation.

It's not that it was a bad call, it was a bad outcome. Big difference.

So then what happens? The Jets protect against the first down and the Bills complete a dump off underneath that gets back to the original line of scrimmage or closer. If it was a 10 yard penalty it would have made more sense, but there is no benefit in taking a 5 yarder there. It worked out for the best, but 9 times out of 10 you are screwing yourself.

[Klecko73isGod]

Are you really defending the decision based on the unpredictable (and unlikely) result of the Jets picking off Edwards in the redzone and returning it for a TD?

Sorry, I'm not a results-oriented person. Just because a decision worked out doesn't mean it was the right one, given the facts and circumstances at the time of that decision. It's like playing cards - if you get your money in the pot as a 4-1 favorite and some guys sucks out, it doesn't mean you made the wrong decision and he made the right one. Run the same situation over 100 times and see what the outcome would be.

I couldn't give a **** about theory. I care about the ACTUAL RESULTS OF THE GAME.

According to you, if Mangini made what you think would have been the right decision and we lost the game as a result you'd be happy with his coaching but since a decision you disagreed with turned out the best possible way for the team you're gonna bitch and moan about it after a win?

[CTM]

I couldn't give a **** about theory. I care about the ACTUAL RESULTS OF THE GAME.

According to you, if Mangini made what you think would have been the right decision and we lost the game as a result you'd be happy with his coaching but since a decision you disagreed with turned out the best possible way for the team you're gonna bitch and moan about it after a win?

That's just dumb

Is there a ****ty post of the week button here?

[serphnx]

Knowing our pass defense and how it was on that drive, I thought it was a terrible decision. Sometimes it is better to have dumb luck than to make good decisions I guess. That's how Herm made the playoffs 4 times. But eventually that dumb luck runs out, and it's tough to ever be a true contender.

[JohnnyHector]

I couldn't give a **** about theory. I care about the ACTUAL RESULTS OF THE GAME.

According to you, if Mangini made what you think would have been the right decision and we lost the game as a result you'd be happy with his coaching but since a decision you disagreed with turned out the best possible way for the team you're gonna bitch and moan about it after a win?

If Mangini declines the penalty, and a 42-yard Rian Lindell FG to make the score 10-6 at the end of the 1st Quarter is the deciding factor in a loss, I'd have plenty of other things to complain about from a coaching standpoint I'm sure...

Even taking your results-oriented perspective, it is absolutely undisputable that that Mangini made the wrong decision for that ONE PLAY as the Bills converted the 3rd down. What happens after that is a series of events completely unrelated to the bad decision made previously.

Perhaps my background makes me someone who would rather rely on statistics, odds, and percentages rather than dumb luck and one lucky break isn't going to change the way I think.

[JohnnyHector]

That's just dumb

Is there a ****ty post of the week button here?

Much better reply than mine.... especially considering the effort involved.

[Klecko73isGod]

That's just dumb

Is there a ****ty post of the week button here?

It's dumb? Really?

You decline the penalty, they kick the ball, miss it or make it is immaterial.

You accept the penalty and there are now five possibilities:

1. Short gain resulting in FG attempt of about the same as the original distance - this result is negligible, you haven't lost or gained a thing.

2. A play that results in no gain or loss of yardage - this is a positive result as it results in a FG attempt of a greater distance and if you attempt to argue with me that five yards makes no difference on a kick into the wind you are going to lose and you know it.

3. A play that results in a loss of yardage - again, a postive result as maybe they even get knocked out of FG range completely.

4. A turnover - unquestionably the best possible result.

5. A play that results in a first down for the Bills - the only truly negative result and the lowest percentage possibility.

Again, none of you are upset at the decision, you are upset at the result. 95% of NFL coaches would have made the same decision as Mangini did because the odds are in their favor no matter how you slice it.

[Klecko73isGod]

If Mangini declines the penalty, and a 42-yard Rian Lindell FG to make the score 10-6 at the end of the 1st Quarter is the deciding factor in a loss, I'd have plenty of other things to complain about from a coaching standpoint I'm sure...

Even taking your results-oriented perspective, it is absolutely undisputable that that Mangini made the wrong decision for that ONE PLAY as the Bills converted the 3rd down. What happens after that is a series of events completely unrelated to the bad decision made previously.

Perhaps my background makes me someone who would rather rely on statistics, odds, and percentages rather than dumb luck and one lucky break isn't going to change the way I think.

That is completely and utterly false. What happened after that would not have happened at all had Mangini declined the penalty.

[drago]

And that's why you're not an NFL coach, because you are miserably negative and as such would be the most conservative coach in NFL history.

The bottom line here is that the decision actually did end up working out in the Jets favor. The Bills did not score. The decision gave the Jets additional opportunities to stop the Bills and make something happen, which they did.

If Mangini declines that penalty, the Bills go up 10-6, there is no pick 6 by Elam. On their next trip to the redzone the Bills do not go for it on 4th down and kick the FG, putting them up 13-6, a lead they then take into halftime. If the second half then plays out mostly the way it did, or with Favre being in a position where he had to pass on the Jets final possession because we a trailing and throws another pick, costing us the game, we lose.

No what do you think of that decision? Guess what, whether you liked it at the time or not, it probably won us the friggin' game.

well I'll be getting my NFL coaching resume ready tonight then. Thanks for the tip!

[Klecko73isGod]

If Mangini declines the penalty, and a 42-yard Rian Lindell FG to make the score 10-6 at the end of the 1st Quarter is the deciding factor in a loss, I'd have plenty of other things to complain about from a coaching standpoint I'm sure...

Even taking your results-oriented perspective, it is absolutely undisputable that that Mangini made the wrong decision for that ONE PLAY as the Bills converted the 3rd down. What happens after that is a series of events completely unrelated to the bad decision made previously.

Perhaps my background makes me someone who would rather rely on statistics, odds, and percentages rather than dumb luck and one lucky break isn't going to change the way I think.

As I have illustrated several times in this thread, the percentages are in favor of accepting the penalty, not declining it.

[CTM]

Much better reply than mine.... especially considering the effort involved.

Hey, it did take a while to come up with the code for that smiley...

Btw, I've decided to start applying this new Klogic to all my football analysis..

For instance, at the end of the first half, 4th and 15 at the nineteen. Mangini opts for a FG in that spot. Of course Feely missed it and applying some Klogic I can only deduce that it was bad decision. A Farvruh jump ball was clearly the best option in that spot..

Klogic = Hindsight based decision-making analysis, it's a all the rage amongst the mouth breathing sect..

[JohnnyHector]

That is completely and utterly false. What happened after that would not have happened at all had Mangini declined the penalty.

Huh? I'm talking about the merits of a single decision - a discrete event. I didn't like the decision to give Buffalo an opportunity to score 7 in that spot, and would've been fine with a 10-6 game, especially considering that I think Lindell hits from either distance in that spot.

What happens after that next play (following the penalty) has NOTHING to do with the decision itself.

[CTM]

It's dumb? Really?]

Actually what I said was dumb was your results based analysis. Not your original agreement with the call by Mangini, although I don't think that is terribly bright either..

You decline the penalty, they kick the ball, miss it or make it is immaterial.

You accept the penalty and there are now five possibilities:

1. Short gain resulting in FG attempt of about the same as the original distance - this result is negligible, you haven't lost or gained a thing.

2. A play that results in no gain or loss of yardage - this is a positive result as it results in a FG attempt of a greater distance and if you attempt to argue with me that five yards makes no difference on a kick into the wind you are going to lose and you know it.

3. A play that results in a loss of yardage - again, a postive result as maybe they even get knocked out of FG range completely.

4. A turnover - unquestionably the best possible result.

5. A play that results in a first down for the Bills - the only truly negative result and the lowest percentage possibility.

Again, none of you are upset at the decision, you are upset at the result. 95% of NFL coaches would have made the same decision as Mangini did because the odds are in their favor no matter how you slice it.

First off, you are forgetting any number of penalties the Jets could have committed and ignoring that there is almost 0 reasonable upside considering the 5 yard penalty did not take them out of FG range. If it was a hold and took a 45 yards to a 55 yarder, there's more room for debate, but when your most likely upside is a 47 yard FG instead of a 42 yard FG, it makes no sense to risk that they convert it. Particularly when our pass defense has been as bad as it's been this year.

[Klecko73isGod]

Hey, it did take a while to come up with the code for that smiley...

Btw, I've decided to start applying this new Klogic to all my football analysis..

For instance, at the end of the first half, 4th and 15 at the nineteen. Mangini opts for a FG in that spot. Of course Feely missed it and applying some Klogic I can only deduce that it was bad decision. A Farvruh jump ball was clearly the best option in that spot..

Klogic = Hindsight based decision-making analysis, it's a all the rage amongst the mouth breathing sect..

You're an idiot and you're not applying proper logic to the original call anyway.

Five possible outcomes from accepting the penalty: three of them are postive, one negligible and one negative. Playing the percentages means accepting the penalty. Declining the penalty is a dumb move.

[JohnnyHector]

As I have illustrated several times in this thread, the percentages are in favor of accepting the penalty, not declining it.

Really? Where have you illustrated anything remotely related to percentages?

Tell me, what is the difference in Lindell's career conversion rate from 40-44 and from 45-49? Is it a large enough gap to think that the odds of him missing a 47-yarder versus a 42-yarder (or Buffalo losing yardage on 3rd down) are greater than the odds of Buffalo either gaining more than the 5 yards lost on the penalty, or even worse, gaining enough for the 1st down?

[JohnnyHector]

You're an idiot and you're not applying proper logic to the original call anyway.

Five possible outcomes from accepting the penalty: three of them are postive, one negligible and one negative. Playing the percentages means accepting the penalty. Declining the penalty is a dumb move.

You're assuming that they are all equally likely, which is nowhere near reality...

[Klecko73isGod]

Huh? I'm talking about the merits of a single decision - a discrete event. I didn't like the decision to give Buffalo an opportunity to score 7 in that spot, and would've been fine with a 10-6 game, especially considering that I think Lindell hits from either distance in that spot.

What happens after that next play (following the penalty) has NOTHING to do with the decision itself.

And football isn't played in a vacuum.

And you're focus is incorrect. The decision was not, in any way to "give Buffalo and opportunity to score 7."

The decision was to prevent them from scoring, period.

Five yards into the wind makes a huge difference, any attempt to argue that it doesn't is an exercise in stupidity.

[JohnnyHector]

Klogic = Hindsight based decision-making analysis, it's a all the rage amongst the mouth breathing sect..

BTW, Klogic....