Pyper Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 I posted this on Patsfans.com but I figured it might be of interest for many of you here as well. The following information is based on a table I created to calculate the expected win totals of the AFC playoff contenders. While no game is a guarantee for anything, for the purpose of this project, I count games vs poor teams as an expected victory and games vs good teams as competitive matches with a 50% chance of victory and a 50% chance of defeat. Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction but rather a mathematical breakdown based on laws of probabilities. It's just meant to give you an idea of where each team stands in terms of not only their current record but their remaining schedule as well. For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 6-4 with six games remaining. Two of those six games are against poor teams that they should beat (EW's). The remaining four games are against good teams that could go either way (CG's). That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10-6 (6-4 + 2-0 + 2-2). Obviously the 2-2 part is calculated by 4 games times 50% (0.50). Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention. TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record 1) Titans: 10-0; NYJ,@Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 14.5-1.5 2) Steelers: 7-3; Cin,@NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5 3) Jets: 7-3; @Ten,Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5 4) Broncos: 6-4; Oak,@NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6 5) Colts: 6-4; @SD,@Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5 6) Dolphins: 6-4; NE,@StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5 ================================================= 7) Patriots: 6-4; @Mia,Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6 8) Ravens: 6-4; Phi,@Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW; 5 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5 9) Bills: 5-5; @KC,SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7 10) Chargers: 4-6; Ind,Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8 NOTE: By beating the Dolphins next week, the Pats will boost their expected win total to 10.5 (7-4 record + 2 "easy wins" + 3 competive games with a 50% chance of winning each) and put themselves in the #6 position. A loss on the other hand would drop their expected record to 9.5 - 6.5 and seriously damage their playoffs hopes. Even if they recovered to win 10 games we would likely lose out on all tie-breakers and end up watching the playoffs from home. In essence it could be 2002 all over again. For all intents and purposes, the Dolphin game represents the first true MUST-WIN game of the year for the Patriots. Even with a win we'll likely have to go 11-5 to guarantee ourselves a playoffs spot. What this analysis does is show us that there could be a logjam of 10-6 teams with a few of them missing the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
124 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 According to CBS, and I'm going to go with them on this it looks like this: 1. TEN 2. PITT 3. NYJ 4. DEN 5. IND 6. BAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyper Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 According to CBS, and I'm going to go with them on this it looks like this: 1. TEN 2. PITT 3. NYJ 4. DEN 5. IND 6. BAL The CBS list is how it would stand if the season ended today. But as we all know it doesn't. As my table shows, Baltimore is in a world of hurt. They have only one "easy win" left on their schedule. My table predicts between 9 and 10 wins for them but that me be overly generous b/c my table assumes a 50% chance of them winning each of their competitive games. However, I find it very difficult to see Baltimore winning more than one or two of those games. In all likelihood, the Ravens will finish around 8-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
124 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 I could easily see New England going 3-1 in their final 4 games. I think they go 10-6 at worst but I see them going 11-5. I don't know why, but I just do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 i say everyone goes 10-6...even the Jills can that happen? all 4 teams go 10-6? hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 You know what this is? The first actual contribution from a Patriots fan ever. Good stuff. For the Jets I think the Steelers schedule is tougher. If they both go 11 and 5 it comes down to Conference record which will be interesting. I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to beat out the Patriots for a wild card spot. I wouldn't mind it, I just have a hard time believing that would happen. Good work though, please post this each week if you can. It is very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aqua4ever04 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Miami is not ahead of Baltimore. The Ravens beat us thus having the head-to-head tie-breaker. Here's an extensive look at the playoff picture. http://forums.thephins.com/miami-dolphins-forum/21106-official-path-playoffs-thread.html[url=http://forums.thephins.com/club-level/21105-official-path-playoffs-thread.html] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Miami is not ahead of Baltimore. The Ravens beat us thus having the head-to-head tie-breaker. Here's an extensive look at the playoff picture. http://forums.thephins.com/miami-dolphins-forum/21106-official-path-playoffs-thread.html[url=http://forums.thephins.com/club-level/21105-official-path-playoffs-thread.html] beat the pats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KINGDIRK Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 You know what this is? The first actual contribution from a Patriots fan ever. Good stuff. For the Jets I think the Steelers schedule is tougher. If they both go 11 and 5 it comes down to Conference record which will be interesting. I have a hard time believing that the Dolphins are going to beat out the Patriots for a wild card spot. I wouldn't mind it, I just have a hard time believing that would happen. Good work though, please post this each week if you can. It is very interesting. Jets confrence record: 5-3 Steelers confrence record: 6-1 If we want that 2 seed (and have a real shot at a SB), we NEED to finish one game better than Pitt. This TENN game is huge..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyper Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 Miami is not ahead of Baltimore. The Ravens beat us thus having the head-to-head tie-breaker. Here's an extensive look at the playoff picture. http://forums.thephins.com/miami-dolphins-forum/21106-official-path-playoffs-thread.html You're confusing this analysis with the current AFC playoff standings. They're not the same. You may want to actually read my post to understand what you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gyno-Tony Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 got some major math geeks in the hizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PS17 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 GREAT POST!! Do it again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aqua4ever04 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 You're confusing this analysis with the current AFC playoff standings. They're not the same. You may want to actually read my post to understand what you're looking at. I just don't buy into the idea that a computer is calculating which games teams will win and lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 got some major math geeks in the hizzy. yeah, it's better off not knowing how to add isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyper Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 I just don't buy into the idea that a computer is calculating which games teams will win and lose. Who said anything about a computer??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Who said anything about a computer??? He's a Dolphin fan. Just let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyper Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 He's a Dolphin fan. Just let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 J-E-T-S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Go Pats!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.