2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12

[Pyper]

Back by popular demand. This projection model attempts to evaluate the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders. It assumes that legitimate playoff contenders will beat the poor teams on their schedule and split the games they play against their fellow contenders.

Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction but rather a mathematical breakdown based on laws of probability. It's meant to give us an idea of where each team stands in terms of not only their current record but their remaining schedule as well.

For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 7-4 with five games remaining. Two of those five games are against poor teams that they should beat (EW's). The remaining three games are against good teams that could go either way (CG's). That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10.5 - 5.5 (7-4 + 2-0 + 1.5 - 1.5). Obviously the 1.5-1.5 part is calculated by 3 games times 50% (0.50).

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 10-1; @Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2

2) Jets: 8-3; Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

3) Steelers: 8-3; @NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5

4) Broncos: 6-5; @NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7

5) Colts: 7-4; @Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 4 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

6) Ravens: 7-4; @Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 2 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5

==============================================

7) Patriots: 7-4; Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5

8) Dolphins: 6-5; @StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6

9) Bills: 6-5; SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7

10) Chargers: 4-7; Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5 - 8.5

NOTE: I'm keeping SD in the hunt b/c despite their poor record, they're still only two games out of first place and they still play the division leader once. It's starting to look like it might only take 7 or 8 wins to win that division.

[Irish Jet]

I think the Jets and Steelers will be the #1 and #2 seeds. JMO.

[ECURB]

Did you make this?

Where is the link if not?

[war ensemble]

Did you make this?

Where is the link if not?

She made it, posted one last week.

Good read, nicely put together.

[ECURB]

She made it, posted one last week.

Good read, nicely put together.

Crazy, good for her.

Nice job.

[SMC]

Good stuff.

Of the top 3 teams, the Steelers really have the toughest road. If the Jets don't screw it up, they should have sown up the 2nd seed by no later than week 16.

[StillerPaul]

I think the Jets and Steelers will be the #1 and #2 seeds. JMO.

From your keyboard to the football God's ears, buddy! I gotta be honest though, i really can't see my Steelers getting anything higher than the #3 seed. This schedule is extremely challenging and my offense has yet to put a complete game together. We gotta see if my Steeler defense continues playing at a high level too. The next 2 weeks (At Pats and Home to Cowboys) should tell us alot about my Steelers IMO.

[SMC]

From your keyboard to the football God's ears, buddy! I gotta be honest though, i really can't see my Steelers getting anything higher than the #3 seed. This schedule is extremely challenging and my offense has yet to put a complete game together. We gotta see if my Steeler defense continues playing at a high level too. The next 2 weeks (At Pats and Home to Cowboys) should tell us alot about my Steelers IMO.

+1

That's a really hard schedule to have down the stretch, especially with Big Ben's health concern.

Right now, the Steelers' biggest concern is holding off the Ravens rather than getting the second seed.

That Pit-Ravens rematch is going to be huge.

[Bugg]

The Titans are going to do the Tom Petty Freefallin' thing. I'd be shocked if the Colts don't somehow catch them over the last five, even with the current records.

[SMC]

The key is to get to 12 wins in week 16 and have the Steelers lose 2 more games and Pats lose 1 more game. In that scenario, week 17 will be meaningless for the Jets.

[124]

I think the Jets and Steelers will be the #1 and #2 seeds. JMO.

You think Tennessee loses two more games and the Jets & Steelers win out?

[nyjfan]

You think Tennessee loses two more games and the Jets & Steelers win out?

I agree. Now that people see how easy it is to beat them.

[Larz]

congratulations ! you just earned a home playoff game !

you win a game VS the colts

[Pyper]

Did you make this?

Where is the link if not?

I made it.

[Pyper]

She made it, posted one last week.

Good read, nicely put together.

Not a chick

[uart]

Not a chick

Then why are you named after one of those TV witch-sluts?

[Jared]

If Pitt loses to the Ravens and Patriots, there is a very real chance they miss the playoffs. Between the AFC East, North, and South, there will be at least one team with 10, maybe even 11 wins and not making the playoffs.

[JETS11269]

Patriots aren't missing the playoffs.

[lamont_jordan_rules]

... it didn't sound like you put homefield advantage or traveling disadvantages with westcoast/eastcoast trips(looks like just chargers fall in this) & vice-versa (jets/pats/ravens/bills/fins/titans/possibly pitt) trips into the equation (i guess denv/indy/maybe pitt don't fall into the time zone hijinks as they are in middle time zones)...

... it is a nice start for trying to remove the emotion and focus on mathematical probabilites for who will make it ... however i believe you need to get at least several more factors involved than a guesstimate over what teams will be contenders & then arbitrarily cut off all other games as victories after that ...

... with us being 0-2 against sd & oak in our 2 worst performances, i am not going to immediately pencil in a w against sf or sea as a given ...

... i don't really know what equation to put in, but if you want to run something along the lines of vegas odds ... you could add+3 to a home team and maybe +2 more if the visiting team was traveling across 3 time zones, perhaps 5 points may also be a good advantage to start those teams with you believe are playoff teams in your math ... perhaps teams that have a better than .500 record should receive 2 points (if they don't fall into your contender category in which they had already gotten 5 points) ... then say the math falls in +/-2 that gets a half of a point in each column, anything +3 or more gets a whole point in the win column, anything -3 or more gets a point in the loss column

... nice job - not trying to give you a hard time, just trying to fine-tune it a bit ...

l_j_r

[Greenseed3]

The key is to get to 12 wins in week 16 and have the Steelers lose 2 more games and Pats lose 1 more game. In that scenario, week 17 will be meaningless for the Jets.

Wouldn't that be nice to hear? "The Jets are resting their starters".

[Pyper]

... it didn't sound like you put homefield advantage or traveling disadvantages with westcoast/eastcoast trips(looks like just chargers fall in this) & vice-versa (jets/pats/ravens/bills/fins/titans/possibly pitt) trips into the equation (i guess denv/indy/maybe pitt don't fall into the time zone hijinks as they are in middle time zones)...

... it is a nice start for trying to remove the emotion and focus on mathematical probabilites for who will make it ... however i believe you need to get at least several more factors involved than a guesstimate over what teams will be contenders & then arbitrarily cut off all other games as victories after that ...

... with us being 0-2 against sd & oak in our 2 worst performances, i am not going to immediately pencil in a w against sf or sea as a given ...

... i don't really know what equation to put in, but if you want to run something along the lines of vegas odds ... you could add+3 to a home team and maybe +2 more if the visiting team was traveling across 3 time zones, perhaps 5 points may also be a good advantage to start those teams with you believe are playoff teams in your math ... perhaps teams that have a better than .500 record should receive 2 points (if they don't fall into your contender category in which they had already gotten 5 points) ... then say the math falls in +/-2 that gets a half of a point in each column, anything +3 or more gets a whole point in the win column, anything -3 or more gets a point in the loss column

... nice job - not trying to give you a hard time, just trying to fine-tune it a bit ...

l_j_r

Yeah, it's not really intended to be exact. It's kind of hard to explain but it's not a prediction. I'm not predicting anything. It's just meant to give you a ballpark glimpse of where teams stand if we look past their current record and consider each team's remaining schedules. For example, right "NOW" the Steelers have the clear edge for the #2 seed based on their conference record. But if we look at their remaining schedule we see that the Jets are actually sitting in a much better situation.

I used the term probability in the original description but that's a bit misleading. It's not really a probability. Truth be told, I simply couldn't think of an accurate word to describe it. It's just a tool to help us see where teams stand. The final standings will most likely look nothing like the "expected records". Some contenders will likely lose games to poor teams and others might win out in all of their "competitive games".

But still, even with it's obvious flaws, I do think it's a better way of looking at the playoff race than simply looking at the current standings.

[Jared]

Wouldn't that be nice to hear? "The Jets are resting their starters".

I'm fairly certain that if the Pats and Jets both finish 12-4 (assuming the Jets lose to the Fish or Bills and the Patriots) the Patriots would actually win the tie breaker.

(I could be entirely wrong, but that is how someone explained it to me)

[serphnx]

You think Tennessee loses two more games and the Jets & Steelers win out?

I think the Jets and Steelers have a far greater chance of winning out than the Titans do of winning the final 2 games of the season. Of course, the Steelers and Titans are tied together in that, since they play each other.

I do not see the Colts catching the Titans however. I don't think the Steelers will get the #2 seed. If anything, I think they COULD end up with the #1 seed or the #3, I just can't see a scenario that gets them at #2.

If the Steelers win out, they would indeed have the same record, I project 13-3 across the board for the Titans, Steelers and Jets. However, if that were to happen, the Steelers would actually be the #1 seed, as they'd have the head to head over the Titans, and would have the better conference record over the Jets. The Jets would go in at #2, and the Titans would go in at #3.

Any other scenario seems really unlikely to me, as it involves the Titans taking questionable losses, as well as the Jets taking some weird losses. I mean I guess the Jets can lose and the Steelers slide in to a top seed, but because of the Steelers schedule that is unlikely. I don't think the Steelers will get a top seed, #3 is the best they can hope for and I don't even think they will get that (the Ravens I think will win that division).