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Any given Sunday - Jets Over Titans


CTM

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Real good article that I think hits the mark. Also calls out our horrid pass defense and why teams that are a real good passing teams could present a challenge for us. I know it's a bit of battered fan syndrome, but I've been saying since early in the season that our pass defense is a big problem and it's interesting to see an objective outside source confirm those fears.

Here's to hoping Ty Law can help us in this area :headbang:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3725392

The Jets dominated the previously undefeated Titans to win their fifth straight game and suddenly enter the conversation as a potential Super Bowl contender. But rather than signaling a seismic shift in the AFC, the Jets merely exposed some of the Titans' weaknesses. The Jets' short-passing attack and stout run defense took the Titans out of their element and turned the game into a blowout. The Titans' undefeated record was built on a dominant defense and a solid running game. In recent weeks, however, teams have loaded up against the run. Facing eight-man fronts, the Titans increasingly relied on resurgent quarterback Kerry Collins. His success, however, led the Titans to outthink themselves. The Jets have a much better run defense than pass defense, but their quality run defense allows them to defend the run with just seven players. Rather than challenge strength against strength, the Titans went to the air early and often with limited success.

The Titans threw on 13 of their first 19 plays -- but gained only 22 yards on three completions. The Titans have a pedestrian group of receivers who struggled to get open against tight coverage and dropped a number of passes. Only after the Jets built a big lead and switched to softer coverage was Collins able to find openings. Collins completed 9 of 10 passes for 120 of his 243 yards after the Titans had fallen behind by three scores.

The pass-happy tendencies and second-half deficit meant that the Titans never even attempted to stick with their running game. Their two-headed attack of Chris Johnson and LenDale White combined for only 11 carries. For a team built around its offensive line and running attack, this move away from the ground game was an enormous error.

Defensively, the Titans have been among the league's best all season based on a dominant defensive line, athletic linebackers, and a couple of great secondary players in cornerback Cortland Finnegan and safety Chris Hope. The one possible weakness is their struggle with short passes to the right side, opposite Finnegan. The Titans' normal starting left cornerback is Nick Harper, who missed the game with an ankle injury. The Jets attacked his replacement, Chris Carr, mercilessly. Favre threw 16 passes to the short right side of the field, completing 11 and picking up two additional pass-interference penalties.

The Titans cannot be attacked down the field: Their pass rush affords little time, and their safeties cover a great deal of ground. Favre didn't complete any passes that traveled more than 15 yards in the air. He did pick up a pass-interference penalty on Carr but also was intercepted by Finnegan. To beat the Titans, the passing attack has to be underneath.

Of course, the underneath passes are the specialty of this Jets team. Favre, in spite of his gunslinger reputation, throws almost everything underneath these days. His arm strength is now used to fit balls into tight spaces rather than throw balls down the field. His precision underneath was just what the doctor ordered against Tennessee. The short passing attack led to a ball-control offense that held the football for over 40 minutes. They wore down the Titans' defense, and the Jets gained more than half their rushing yards in the fourth quarter.

The Jets' domination was certainly an impressive feat, but the Titans presented a perfect opponent for a team built around ball-control offense and stout run defense. The breaking point in a matchup between these two playoff-caliber teams was whether Tennessee could run the ball, and the Titans did not even give themselves a chance.

Despite the impressive win, the Jets are not the best team in the AFC. They have a good and improving offense but only an average defense. That defense is wildly inconsistent, allowing more than 30 points three times and now holding four teams under 15. It is no surprise that two of the big games came against two of the NFL's top pass offenses, San Diego and Arizona. The third was against the rejuvenated Patriots' passing attack. A bad matchup for the Jets would be a pass-first team that does not need to establish the run. Among potential AFC playoff opponents, only Denver, Indianapolis and New England pose that challenge. The Jets' defense would likely struggle against all three of those teams but play well against Baltimore; Pittsburgh; or, as Sunday proved, Tennessee.

For the Titans, one really bad loss is no reason to panic. They need to get back to basics and use their running game to open up the passing game. Against eight-man fronts, they can pass with great success, but make no mistake: This is a run-first team. Sunday's game was a not-so-gentle reminder of this fact and should make the Titans better going forward.

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Also, here's the lead in to the article on FO..

Explains how all of the AFC east teams are over rated due to drawing the 2 worst divisions in football (AFC and NFC West)

The good news is that the objective stats say we are the only worthy team in the division, which I thoroughly agree with..

The linked article focuses on how the Jets matched up well against the Titans and were able to turn their advantages into a blowout win.

The Jets' win on Sunday was obviously mostly about the two teams that played, but it was a rare good showing by an AFC East team against a quality non-division component. The AFC East gets the good fortune of playing eight games against the woeful AFC and NFC West. Only one team in either of those divisions, Arizona, is actually good. Denver lost its ability to claim they were good with their blowout loss to the Raiders.

Anyway, the AFC East is filled with four teams that are all over .500, but only the Jets are in the top 10 in DVOA. The Jets win over the Titans is now their second win against a quality non-division foe, as they dominated the Cardinals in Week 4. The other three teams are devoid of quality out-of-division wins. Miami and New England both beat Denver, but again, Denver is thoroughly mediocre.

The fact that the AFC East has such a good overall record despite sort of an average group of teams is symptomatic of the way that division strength is throwing the Wild Card race into disarray. The NFC South gets the AFC West, against whom they are 9-3. All four of those teams are above .500. Meanwhile, the AFC North features the second and third best teams in the AFC, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But they play the NFC East, which is stacked, plus the two good teams in the AFC South. Against those six opponents, the Steelers and Ravens are both 1-3. They have not lost to any other team besides each other.

The unbalanced schedule could have a disastrous effect on the Ravens, compared with the Patriots. The Ravens have a much higher DVOA, but they still have to play Washington, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. The only common opponent so far is Miami, who the Patriots split with and the Ravens beat by two touchdowns.

The good news is that the Jets, the best team in the AFC East, appear to have emerged as the favorite to win the division, ensuring at most one unworthy team of reaching the playoffs.

I was originally going to look at how recent teams with great starts to the season have fared. But Clark Judge apparently beat me to it. The review is not extraordinary analysis, but it is a nice reminder about how rare a 10-0 start is, and the Titans should be congratulated.

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None of this is really earth-shattering. We do struggle against the pass, especially in the underneath routes...

That having been said, a team passed for 400 yards against us, and it wasn't good enough. Do I fear the Colts? Absolutely. They started off slow, but anyone would be a fool to discount Peyton Manning.

And with the exception of SD, who we killed ourselves against w/ turnovers, those massive passing yards came when we had huge leads. Those articles negate that fact. Does this have to do with our talent level, or our defensive strategy? Did we sit on a lead a bit too much? Does this team not really know the right way to hold those big leads?

I'm not saying it's impossible for us to get burnt, but I'll wait until I see it from the get-go on a team, and not when we're trying to sit on a lead.

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Real good article that I think hits the mark. Also calls out our horrid pass defense and why teams that are a real good passing teams could present a challenge for us. I know it's a bit of battered fan syndrome, but I've been saying since early in the season that our pass defense is a big problem and it's interesting to see an objective outside source confirm those fears.

Here's to hoping Ty Law can help us in this area :headbang:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3725392

The onus is not on our secondary, but on Sutton to be more creative and aggressive with the blitz. Let this guy start earning his paycheck. If the Tennessee offense wasn't so pathetic I'm sure they would have lit us up for 30+ points the way our defense was being schemed.

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We're still improving though. Denver has a good passing offense so I imagine they'll

get some yards on us and we'll make some adjustments to prep us for the rest of

the season after that game.

I'm very interested in how this game plays out.

As the poster above you said, I hope we bring pressure, and lots of it. We seem to do better in these spots and it kind of protects lowrey who has good ball skills if he manages to keep himself anywhere near the receiver..

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Both articles are good finds. Thanks for posting! As noted by others, Denver is another good passing attack that will challenge are defense. Hopefully, we can scheme a little differently. The Broncos have no running game. Last time I saw them Hillis was the HB. Not sure who is starting now. We should be able to come up with something creative. How did the Raiders stop them?

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I'm very interested in how this game plays out.

As the poster above you said, I hope we bring pressure, and lots of it. We seem to do better in these spots and it kind of protects lowrey who has good ball skills if he manages to keep himself anywhere near the receiver..

we need a couple of guys to step up this week-and I expect they will

1-Shaun Ellis and 2-Bryan Thomas have to get us a sack each and

3-I am still waiting for Kerry Rhodes to win us a game with either a blitz/stip or an INT taken to da house-all 3 are due

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None of this is really earth-shattering. We do struggle against the pass, especially in the underneath routes...

That having been said, a team passed for 400 yards against us, and it wasn't good enough. Do I fear the Colts? Absolutely. They started off slow, but anyone would be a fool to discount Peyton Manning.

And with the exception of SD, who we killed ourselves against w/ turnovers, those massive passing yards came when we had huge leads. Those articles negate that fact. Does this have to do with our talent level, or our defensive strategy? Did we sit on a lead a bit too much? Does this team not really know the right way to hold those big leads?

I'm not saying it's impossible for us to get burnt, but I'll wait until I see it from the get-go on a team, and not when we're trying to sit on a lead.

This is my only real beef with Mangini at this point but it is a HUGE one. I like how he keeps the team in line, we come out and have great gameplans to open up every game and always steal the early momentum, but when the opposing coach makes a great adjustment, or we build a lead, Eric is clueless.

Hey Eric,

Want to know how to protect a big lead? CONTINUE TO DO THE SAME THINGS THAT ALLOWED YOU TO BUILD THE BIG LEAD!!! Make them figure you out and solve their own problem. Don't just let them off the hook by switching to a soft defense. The second you do that, they relax and begin getting in rhythm. If they're down 21, and forced to play in obvious passing situations, the last thing a QB wants to see is 6 defenders rushing him every play. A few sacks when up 21 is demoralizing to an opponent and takes their heart out of the game. On the otherhand, completing 9 of 10 passes while marching down the field in 2:25 to score a TD that brings the game within two scores has the exact opposite effect and gets an opponent live and smelling blood in the water.

Continue to do what they can't solve. Once (if) they solve it, OK, switch. But please, stop helping them by letting them off the hook.

Signed,

All Jets fans across the world.

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I'm very interested in how this game plays out.

As the poster above you said, I hope we bring pressure, and lots of it. We seem to do better in these spots and it kind of protects lowrey who has good ball skills if he manages to keep himself anywhere near the receiver..

I think what works best in the Jets favor is the fact that Cutler and the Broncos gameplan doesn't like to go short with the ball which is really where the weakness in our defense is. If they drill it in their QB's head to just go to Stokley and Graham every single play it will be rough for us. But they rarely do that. It was like last week where the Raiders just played them deep and they tried to force it over them all game long and next thing you knew the game was out of reach before they adjusted. I think Cutler still has to learn how to win, which is one of the negatives of drafting a QB from a program that has done nothing but lose.

Im not sure how much pressure we can get on them. They do a good job protecting Cutler and spread the defenses out to limit the rush. They have not had the best of luck against 3-4 defenses, but I could imagine theJets best chances to get to him are blitzing with Rhodes, Elam, Revis, and Poteat but that leaves you very vulnerable if they dont get to him.

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I think that alot of the problems the Jets have with playing the pass is that once Mangini thinks they have a big enough lead, he has them sit back in deep zones, rushing only 3 and sometimes 4.

They are willing to give up the underneath and that is how teams are getting back into games.

Hopefully he has learned that when you have a shot to put a team away you do it.

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Denver's passing offense won't challenge us that much at all guys.

You want to know why?

An offense has to actually be on the field in order to do anything and don't expect to see the Broncos' offense on the field all that much.

A stat a lot of people are apparently completely blowing off is this: the Jets have 27 drives that have lasted 5 minutes or longer, most in the NFL.

We had three such drives vs. the Titans on Sunday. How many will we have this Sunday against the league's 28th ranked defense? Remember, the Broncos are bad both vs. the run and the pass.

As the season progresses and we play these bottom scraping teams like the 49ers and Seahawks, expect to see a sudden change in our defense's standing as they will not be spending a whole hell of a lot of time on the field.

I'm not sure that we'll hold the ball for 40 minutes a game like Sunday, but 35 or 36 ain't hard to imagine and we'll see a dramatic improvement in our defense's stats.

Right now, the Jets ball control offense is it's best defense and I would expect it to stay that way. It's also why I think we are legit contenders.

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Denver's passing offense won't challenge us that much at all guys.

You want to know why?

An offense has to actually be on the field in order to do anything and don't expect to see the Broncos' offense on the field all that much.

A stat a lot of people are apparently completely blowing off is this: the Jets have 27 drives that have lasted 5 minutes or longer, most in the NFL.

We had three such drives vs. the Titans on Sunday. How many will we have this Sunday against the league's 28th ranked defense? Remember, the Broncos are bad both vs. the run and the pass.

As the season progresses and we play these bottom scraping teams like the 49ers and Seahawks, expect to see a sudden change in our defense's standing as they will not be spending a whole hell of a lot of time on the field.

I'm not sure that we'll hold the ball for 40 minutes a game like Sunday, but 35 or 36 ain't hard to imagine and we'll see a dramatic improvement in our defense's stats.

Right now, the Jets ball control offense is it's best defense and I would expect it to stay that way. It's also why I think we are legit contenders.

Kleck, prior to the TN game we had played the easiest schedule in Football. Even after the game against TN we've had the 28th easiest schedule.

Of the games remaining, we have the 24st easiest schedule. So believe it or not, what lies ahead on average is still harder then what we've been through..

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I think what works best in the Jets favor is the fact that Cutler and the Broncos gameplan doesn't like to go short with the ball which is really where the weakness in our defense is. If they drill it in their QB's head to just go to Stokley and Graham every single play it will be rough for us. But they rarely do that. It was like last week where the Raiders just played them deep and they tried to force it over them all game long and next thing you knew the game was out of reach before they adjusted. I think Cutler still has to learn how to win, which is one of the negatives of drafting a QB from a program that has done nothing but lose.

Im not sure how much pressure we can get on them. They do a good job protecting Cutler and spread the defenses out to limit the rush. They have not had the best of luck against 3-4 defenses, but I could imagine theJets best chances to get to him are blitzing with Rhodes, Elam, Revis, and Poteat but that leaves you very vulnerable if they dont get to him.

I agree with the deep passing versus short passing angle, which is why Manning scares me so much, but I still think it'll be a good challenge for our defense. Cutler will take the short stuff but won't hesitate to attack an opening down the field so I'm interested to see what he finds..

Good point on Cutler learning how to win btw, I think you hit the nail on the head there..

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Denver's passing offense won't challenge us that much at all guys.

You want to know why?

An offense has to actually be on the field in order to do anything and don't expect to see the Broncos' offense on the field all that much.

A stat a lot of people are apparently completely blowing off is this: the Jets have 27 drives that have lasted 5 minutes or longer, most in the NFL.

+1

Thank you, I was about to post the same thing.

Now as for this piece of crap.

Despite the impressive win, the Jets are not the best team in the AFC. They have a good and improving offense but only an average defense. That defense is wildly inconsistent, allowing more than 30 points three times and now holding four teams under 15. It is no surprise that two of the big games came against two of the NFL's top pass offenses, San Diego and Arizona. The third was against the rejuvenated Patriots' passing attack.

First of all "average" defenses don't shut down what is considered to be the best running game in the NFL. Not only that but they shut it down every single week.

Secondly, if this guy even watched Jets games this year he'd notice that other than the San Diego game, all of those passing yards got racked up against a prevent defense. While I know the passing defense is the Jets weakness it is not totally inept. I think it is more of a product of us not getting to the QB as much as they should.

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First of all "average" defenses don't shut down what is considered to be the best running game in the NFL. Not only that but they shut it down every single week.

Secondly, if this guy even watched Jets games this year he'd notice that other than the San Diego game, all of those passing yards got racked up against a prevent defense. While I know the passing defense is the Jets weakness it is not totally inept. I think it is more of a product of us not getting to the QB as much as they should.

Remember that we've played 5 games against bottom third of the league offenses (almost half of our schedule) and the 2 worst offenses (Oakland, St louis). The stats these guys reference are adjusted for the strength of your opponent

imo, Jets defense has been average this year, but it's improving..

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Kleck, prior to the TN game we had played the easiest schedule in Football. Even after the game against TN we've had the 28th easiest schedule.

Of the games remaining, we have the 24st easiest schedule. So believe it or not, what lies ahead on average is still harder then what we've been through..

And we just played our best football against the best team we've played.

This team is just starting to show what it's capable of.

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And we just played our best football against the best team we've played.

This team is just starting to show what it's capable of.

Of course I agree with that. I'm just hoping we will consistently play like this and continue to improve..

I'm trying not to let all you loons get me carried away as well... ;)

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Remember that we've played 5 games against bottom third of the league offenses (almost half of our schedule) and the 2 worst offenses (Oakland, St louis). The stats these guys reference are adjusted for the strength of your opponent

imo, Jets defense has been average this year, but it's improving..

Average means middle of the pack which makes me think that you can name at least 10-12 defenses which you would take over the Jets defense. Could you do that?

Giants

Steelers

Titans

Tampa Bay

Baltimore

Oakland (maybe?)

Panthers

So to me that makes them above average. BTW I wouldn't put Minny or Atlanta above the Jets just for clarification. The Vikings defense stuffs the run comparably to the Jets but is even more exposed to the pass. As for Atlanta, they are built around John Abraham (hah!) wait for the wheels to fall off that thing.

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Real good article that I think hits the mark. Also calls out our horrid pass defense and why teams that are a real good passing teams could present a challenge for us. I know it's a bit of battered fan syndrome, but I've been saying since early in the season that our pass defense is a big problem and it's interesting to see an objective outside source confirm those fears.

Here's to hoping Ty Law can help us in this area :headbang:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3725392

QFT

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Average means middle of the pack which makes me think that you can name at least 10-12 defenses which you would take over the Jets defense. Could you do that?

Giants

Steelers

Titans

Tampa Bay

Baltimore

Oakland (maybe?)

Panthers

So to me that makes them above average. BTW I wouldn't put Minny or Atlanta above the Jets just for clarification. The Vikings defense stuffs the run comparably to the Jets but is even more exposed to the pass. As for Atlanta, they are built around John Abraham (hah!) wait for the wheels to fall off that thing.

Here's 9 that have been playing better, and the Jets would then be grouped with teams from 10-15 or so..

Giants

Steelers

Titans

Tampa Bay

Baltimore

Panthers

Philly

Chicago

MN

As you just agreed to above, we have the best ball control offense in the league which helps out a defense immensely. Give Oaklands defense an offense that isn't one of the worst in the league and they'd be perceived to be a lot better..

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Well get carried away bitch!!!! It's time.

Let me tell you the last 2 times I really got carried away.

1) Stopping NE on 4th down up 24-6 at the end of the 1st half

2) 10-0 lead in Denver 1998

It's better I remain skeptical ;)

on edit: The third last time was just before I saw the flag on 99 in Cleveland 1986

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And to add, the fact that the Jets gave up over 30 points to the pass happy Chargers, Cards, and Pats does not mean that they are succeptible to pass-first teams in the playoffs.

Two of those games the Jets had DOUBLE DIGIT LEADS and the Cards and Pats passed against vanilla, prevent defenses. As JMJ & EY mentioned, the issue is with holding a lead, not being succeptible to passing attack.

Thus, the article CTM cites ignores the context of the games so its value is suspect.

The Jets don't have an "average" defense. They have an excellent run defense, a good pass rush, and a decent secondary. The secondary gets exposed in the second half of games with big leads because of GAME PLANNING and PLAY CALLING.

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Let me tell you the last 2 times I really got carried away.

1) Stopping NE on 4th down up 24-6 at the end of the 1st half

2) 10-0 lead in Denver 1998

It's better I remain skeptical ;)

on edit: The third last time was just before I saw the flag on 99 in Cleveland 1986

Ever think that maybe your negativity is the problem?

JiF is negative enough for both of you. Lighten up Chan. We're in first place and we're going to extend it this Sunday when we beat the Broncos and the Steelers take out the Pats.

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And to add, the fact that the Jets gave up over 30 points to the pass happy Chargers, Cards, and Pats does not mean that they are succeptible to pass-first teams in the playoffs.

Two of those games the Jets had DOUBLE DIGIT LEADS and the Cards and Pats passed against vanilla, prevent defenses. As JMJ & EY mentioned, the issue is with holding a lead, not being succeptible to passing attack.

Thus, the article CTM cites ignores the context of the games so its value is suspect.

The Jets don't have an "average" defense. They have an excellent run defense, a good pass rush, and a decent secondary. The secondary gets exposed in the second half of games with big leads because of GAME PLANNING and PLAY CALLING.

QFMFT!!!!

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Let me tell you the last 2 times I really got carried away.

1) Stopping NE on 4th down up 24-6 at the end of the 1st half

2) 10-0 lead in Denver 1998

It's better I remain skeptical ;)

on edit: The third last time was just before I saw the flag on 99 in Cleveland 1986

Add flying out to Oakland after trouncing Indy in 2002 and I'm right there with you...

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Bah.. my BFS isn't paranoia based. My biggest concerns are being supported by objective stats... ;)

It is not based on objective stats. Its based on conclusions drawn from partial, rather than complete data.

Making a blanket statement that the Jets will have trouble in the playoffs against pass-first teams is like saying that a runner came in last place without explaining he was running on a broken leg. Your and the article's claim ignore important information.

As I stated above, 2 of those 3 games involved big leads and vanilla defense in the 2nd half. I would dare to say that even if the 2 best defensive teams (Steelers & Ravens) would have played that same style of vanilla defense against the Cards and Pats, that they'd give up as much points as well.

It's game planning and play calling. Against the Cards, Mangini/Sutton went completely soft in the 3rd quarter and the players responded with lax effort, against the Pats, Mangini/Sutton decided to double Moss & Welker and rush 4 or 5 on only 5 of 31 snaps in the 2nd half.

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Ever think that maybe your negativity is the problem?

JiF is negative enough for both of you. Lighten up Chan. We're in first place and we're going to extend it this Sunday when we beat the Broncos and the Steelers take out the Pats.

Are you asking if I think my negativity causes the Jets to play their worst when the most is at stake?

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And to add, the fact that the Jets gave up over 30 points to the pass happy Chargers, Cards, and Pats does not mean that they are succeptible to pass-first teams in the playoffs.

Two of those games the Jets had DOUBLE DIGIT LEADS and the Cards and Pats passed against vanilla, prevent defenses. As JMJ & EY mentioned, the issue is with holding a lead, not being succeptible to passing attack.

Thus, the article CTM cites ignores the context of the games so its value is suspect.

The Jets don't have an "average" defense. They have an excellent run defense, a good pass rush, and a decent secondary. The secondary gets exposed in the second half of games with big leads because of GAME PLANNING and PLAY CALLING.

FO does take context into their stats.

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Are you asking if I think my negativity causes the Jets to play their worst when the most is at stake?

Time space continuum.

There is a theory that even the random act by a person with no control over the outcome of an event, may actually possess such control by acting in such a way which transfers his or her reality to an other.

Let's say you went to the bathroom when the Jets went up 10-0 against Denver in '98. Now, if you had not gone to the bathroom, you may have transferred your reality to a different course on the multilane highway of the time space continuum. So, in that different lane you just entered, the Jets win that game and go on to win the SB. You, personaly, didn't affect the outcome of the game. You simply transfered yourself to a reality where the Jets won.

Thus, your negativity may not cause the Jets to play worse, but your negativity transfers you to a reality where the Jets just happen to be playing worse.

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Time space continuum.

There is a theory that even the random act by a person with no control over the outcome of an event, may actually possess such control by acting in such a way which transfers his or her reality to an other.

Let's say you went to the bathroom when the Jets went up 10-0 against Denver in '98. Now, if he had not gone to the bathroom, you may have transferred your reality to a different course on the multilane highway of the time space continue. So, in that different lane you just entered, the Jets win that game and go on to win the SB. You, personaly, didn't affect the outcome of the game. You simply transfered yourself to a reality where the Jets won.

Thus, your negativity may not cause the Jets to play worse, but your negativity transfers you to a reality where the Jets just happen to be playing worse.

I was just about to say this.

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