Any given Sunday - Jets Over Titans

[SMC]

FO does take context into their stats.

Not in this context. They take down and distance, strength of opponent, etc. They do not take into account, as far as I know, whether a team has a big lead or not.

By the way, FO's ranking has so much value this year that the 4th best team in the NFL, according to them, are the Philadelphia Eagles and the 9th best is the Packers.

[CTM]

It is not based on objective stats. Its based on conclusions drawn from partial, rather than complete data.

Making a blanket statement that the Jets will have trouble in the playoffs against pass-first teams is like saying that a runner came in last place without explaining he was running on a broken leg. Your and the article's claim ignore important information.

As I stated above, 2 of those 3 games involved big leads and vanilla defense in the 2nd half. I would dare to say that even if the 2 best defensive teams (Steelers & Ravens) would have played that same style of vanilla defense against the Cards and Pats, that they'd give up as much points as well.

It's game planning and play calling. Against the Cards, Mangini/Sutton went completely soft in the 3rd quarter and the players responded with lax effort, against the Pats, Mangini/Sutton decided to double Moss & Welker and rush 4 or 5 on only 5 of 31 snaps in the 2nd half.

And you are ignoring KC and San Diego when making your point and ignoring that all the stats you quoted above are benefiting from a) bad offenses we faced ball control offense...

Not to mention that Arizona was a west coast team coming east and playing at 1pm, a horrible disadvantage. OR that in the Pats game, Cassel moved the ball up and down the field the whole first half but had to settle for FG's instead of TD's.

Here's their first two drives of the game, when we were playing straight up:

4 1/2 minute 10 play 44 yard drive resulting in a Field Goal

7 minute 12 play 59 yard drive resulting in a Field Goal

I had this same debate prior to the SD game btw..

I do believe that Ty Law may have a bigger impact on this team then we realize, but I don't doubt that without him, passing offenses would torch us.

[CTM]

Not in this context. They take down and distance, strength of opponent, etc. They do not take into account, as far as I know, whether a team has a big lead or not.

By the way, FO's ranking has so much value this year that the 4th best team in the NFL, according to them, are the Philadelphia Eagles and the 9th best is the Packers.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit.

You know I'm not one to blindly follow stats, but in this case the stats confirm what my eyes tell me a) we are a very inconsistent team and our pass defense is problematic

[CTM]

Time space continuum.

There is a theory that even the random act by a person with no control over the outcome of an event, may actually possess such control by acting in such a way which transfers his or her reality to an other.

Let's say you went to the bathroom when the Jets went up 10-0 against Denver in '98. Now, if you had not gone to the bathroom, you may have transferred your reality to a different course on the multilane highway of the time space continuum. So, in that different lane you just entered, the Jets win that game and go on to win the SB. You, personaly, didn't affect the outcome of the game. You simply transfered yourself to a reality where the Jets won.

Thus, your negativity may not cause the Jets to play worse, but your negativity transfers you to a reality where the Jets just happen to be playing worse.

Ok, then why'd you follow me into this reality?

[ZachEY]

Thus, the article CTM cites ignores the context of the games so its value is suspect.

How lawyerly of you.

[CTM]

Add flying out to Oakland after trouncing Indy in 2002 and I'm right there with you...

2 things

1) Lol at you for buying into noodleology

2) Awesome sig!

[Klecko73isGod]

Add flying out to Oakland after trouncing Indy in 2002 and I'm right there with you...

That is a spectacular sig!

[JohnnyHector]

2 things

1) Lol at you for buying into noodleology

2) Awesome sig!

1 - I was off the bandwagon on January 12, 2003, so I'm still ahead of the curve compared to most

2 - There's plenty more animated GIFs in this thread:

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64177

[SMC]

Ok, then why'd you follow me into this reality?

We are in every reality CTM. Who is to say that me, SMC No. 5,767 will actually stay in this reality? I may shift from here on to another reality where CTM No. 6,302 is stunned that the Jets won it all.

[SMC]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

You know I'm not one to blindly follow stats, but in this case the stats confirm what my eyes tell me a) we are a very inconsistent team and our pass defense is problematic

But they do not weigh that factor, that's my point. Thus, it's not taken in context. The single most important factor in the Cards game and Pats game in the 2nd half was Mangini/Sutton's game planning and play calling. Especially in the Cards game where they used a completely different scheme.

Now show me where defensive scheme is factored into?

Let's get serious here. Calvin Pace is best suiting playing around the line of scrimmage and attacking the ballcarrier and QB. He played in coverage for nearly the entire game against the Pats. Explain to me how FO factors that in? That's scheme.

And, as to your 2 points: (1) the Jets have been evolving over the last 8 games so I don't see where you can say they have been inconsistent. Their play and gameplanning has changed. (2) The pass defense is mediocre and has been exploited when the Jets play a vanilla front.

[jason423]

Remember that we've played 5 games against bottom third of the league offenses (almost half of our schedule) and the 2 worst offenses (Oakland, St louis). The stats these guys reference are adjusted for the strength of your opponent

imo, Jets defense has been average this year, but it's improving..

Id agree with this. The Jets have moved way up in their defense over these last few weeks though, some of which might be due to Favre cutting down on the interceptions. Back in week 8 the Jets were near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed over average as they were giving up a ton of points to some terrible teams. Now they are pretty much just about even on the season (I think its something like 2% above the average right now) which means they did a excellent job in 4 weeks to balance out 8 weeks of crappy games.

[CTM]

But they do not weigh that factor, that's my point. Thus, it's not taken in context. The single most important factor in the Cards game and Pats game in the 2nd half was Mangini/Sutton's game planning and play calling. Especially in the Cards game where they used a completely different scheme.

Now show me where defensive scheme is factored into?

Let's get serious here. Calvin Pace is best suiting playing around the line of scrimmage and attacking the ballcarrier and QB. He played in coverage for nearly the entire game against the Pats. Explain to me how FO factors that in? That's scheme.

Well, seriously, Mangini's bad coaching is part of the teams strengths and weaknesses, so of course it can't take that into context, why would it?

What is does do however, is not penalize the Jets pass defense as much for giving up yards and completions while a game is out of hand..

And, as to your 2 points: (1) the Jets have been evolving over the last 8 games so I don't see where you can say they have been inconsistent. Their play and gameplanning has changed. (2) The pass defense is mediocre and has been exploited when the Jets play a vanilla front.

Isn't evolution inconsistency though?

We can't believe that the TN game is suddenly the norm for this defense, considering NE moved the ball at will pretty much the entire game just the week prior.

Where you are right is that the offense is approaching a level of consistency, which is pain to see and reflected in a variance ranking of 9. The defense on the other hand is sitting at 28, meaning they're like a box of chocolates..

[jason423]

It is not based on objective stats. Its based on conclusions drawn from partial, rather than complete data.

Making a blanket statement that the Jets will have trouble in the playoffs against pass-first teams is like saying that a runner came in last place without explaining he was running on a broken leg. Your and the article's claim ignore important information.

As I stated above, 2 of those 3 games involved big leads and vanilla defense in the 2nd half. I would dare to say that even if the 2 best defensive teams (Steelers & Ravens) would have played that same style of vanilla defense against the Cards and Pats, that they'd give up as much points as well.

It's game planning and play calling. Against the Cards, Mangini/Sutton went completely soft in the 3rd quarter and the players responded with lax effort, against the Pats, Mangini/Sutton decided to double Moss & Welker and rush 4 or 5 on only 5 of 31 snaps in the 2nd half.

I thik its half and half playcalling and actual talent. The Jets have allowed some pretty bad or medicore Qbs to have very efficient days against them. Matt Cassel was dynamite in his first start against us. Part of that was the fault that we were afraid to blitz and part of it was because our players couldnt cover anyone in the slot or out of the backfield. Jamarcus Russel, who is awful, was allowed to throw for over 200 yards and again we couldnt cover a secondary WR or a TE. Tyler Thigpen lit the Jets up and if not for Herm buring the offense in the snd half would have beaten the Jets. Trent Edwards threw all over the field, but kept turning it over.

Those are really the games where the Jets pass defense statistically goes from ok to bad. Those werent vanilla defenses where we were trying to run out a clock. Those were the teams basic set defenses. Poor placalling in most of them? Absolutely. but that doesnt hide the fact that the Jets cant cover certain positions. Its a major reason why Ty Law was signed to immediately start for the team.

[SMC]

Well, seriously, Mangini's bad coaching is part of the teams strengths and weaknesses, so of course it can't take that into context, why would it?

What is does do however, is not penalize the Jets pass defense as much for giving up yards and completions while a game is out of hand..

Don't underestimate the influence of coaching. It is a coaching decision to ask Pace to do something that he is not good at. So when he gets beat, the Jets DVOA gets worse, right? But if the Jets had a better defensive scheme, the DVOA would have been better right?

In simple terms: a bad pass defense has to be separated from a bad passing defensive scheme, something DVOA and other sabermetrics does not do. Hence, the article is off base.

Let's say the Jets play the Colts in the playoffs. The Jets defenders beat the hell out of the Colts receivers and sack Peyton a couple of times and wins the game. Did the Jets pass defense miraculously improve? No, they simple used a different scheme than what they did against the Pats and Cards.

Isn't evolution inconsistency though?

We can't believe that the TN game is suddenly the norm for this defense, considering NE moved the ball at will pretty much the entire game just the week prior.

Where you are right is that the offense is approaching a level of consistency, which is pain to see and reflected in a variance ranking of 9. The defense on the other hand is sitting at 28, meaning they're like a box of chocolates..

Evolution is not inconsistency. Evolution is a progression. The Jets have gotten progressively better over the course of the season, as noted by Jason comparing now to what the defense was ranked in week 8.

And, again, the Pats moved the ball at will because the Jets played a vanilla defense. Mangini admitted it explicitely in his PCs. He said that the plan was double Randy and Wes and not blitz. They left Pace in coverage. By doing so, they also opened up a running lane for Cassel. That's all scheme.

[SMC]

I thik its half and half playcalling and actual talent. The Jets have allowed some pretty bad or medicore Qbs to have very efficient days against them. Matt Cassel was dynamite in his first start against us. Part of that was the fault that we were afraid to blitz and part of it was because our players couldnt cover anyone in the slot or out of the backfield. Jamarcus Russel, who is awful, was allowed to throw for over 200 yards and again we couldnt cover a secondary WR or a TE. Tyler Thigpen lit the Jets up and if not for Herm buring the offense in the snd half would have beaten the Jets. Trent Edwards threw all over the field, but kept turning it over.

Those are really the games where the Jets pass defense statistically goes from ok to bad. Those werent vanilla defenses where we were trying to run out a clock. Those were the teams basic set defenses. Poor placalling in most of them? Absolutely. but that doesnt hide the fact that the Jets cant cover certain positions. Its a major reason why Ty Law was signed to immediately start for the team.

I agree with you. Scheme + talent is an issue. But CTM's BFS article assumes it's all talent which is inherently wrong.

By the way, look at the games you just mentioned:

Pats (week 2)--19 points allowed (PA)

Raiders--16 PA

Chiefs--24 PA

Bills--17 PA

In those games in which the passing defense had "issues" as you mention where the Jets were not protecting a lead, the defense only gave up, on average 19 ppg.

Compare that to the games CTM's BFS article cite and they only mention the games where the Jets were protecting a lead, but don't mention that. Do you see the problem?

[jason423]

I agree with you. Scheme + talent is an issue. But CTM's BFS article assumes it's all talent which is inherently wrong.

By the way, look at the games you just mentioned:

Pats (week 2)--19 points allowed (PA)

Raiders--16 PA

Chiefs--24 PA

Bills--17 PA

In those games in which the passing defense had "issues" as you mention where the Jets were not protecting a lead, the defense only gave up, on average 19 ppg.

Compare that to the games CTM's BFS article cite and they only mention the games where the Jets were protecting a lead, but don't mention that. Do you see the problem?

Its not terrible by any means but it can also be misleading. If you look at the Jets schedule here is what their opponents typically have done this year on offense:

Mia- 21.5PPG/19.3 PPG Home

NE- 24.3 PPG/24.4 PPG Away

SD- 24.9PPG/28.4PPG Home

Ariz- 28.9PPG/ 26.3PPG Away

Cincy- 13.5PPG/14.1PPG Away

Oak- 14.5PPG/10.8PPG Home

KC- 17.8 PPG/13.4PPG Away

Buff- 24.8 PPG/25PPG Home

StL- 13.4 PPG/11.7 PPG Away

NE- 24.3PPG/24.2 PPG Home

Tenn- 23.4 PPG/23.5 PPG Home

So the Jets did better than the norm in five games this year, 3 of which were in the last 4 weeks. They did the norm against Cincy and were worse in every other spot. Now again some of that was Favre, but for the most part its on the defense. I think we all agree the run defense is good so it has to come down to pass defense against these opponents. I think the numbers in almost all the games put the Jets as a slightly below average defense who has made a great turnaround these last 4 games to start growing into hopefully a much better one.

I hadnt updated my stats for the team since midseason, but the Jets major problems in pass coverage lie with the 15-25 yard pass where they have allowed almost 15% more completions over 20 to their opponents and the third down coverage where teams were converting 34% above their average on 3rd when they played our team. I think much of that is on talent.

Where the coaching has come in is in the fact that the Jets were sacking the QB nearly 32% more often when adjusted per pass attempt and giving up 41% less big plays over 40 than the norm. That tells me two things----we have the talent(and good enough coaching) to get into the backfield and that Darrelle Revis is playing lights out. Yet we know from watching the Jets play, especially these last few games that they insist on giving Revis help when it is unnecessary and that they do not want to blitz the passer even though statistically its a major strength of the teams and the presence of Revis should make it only a smally worry if they sell out the secondary just a bit. Those two numbers are why you get so mad watching the game plans. There is no reason to drop all those players into coverage. None at all. Yet Mangini does it every game.

[CTM]

Don't underestimate the influence of coaching. It is a coaching decision to ask Pace to do something that he is not good at. So when he gets beat, the Jets DVOA gets worse, right? But if the Jets had a better defensive scheme, the DVOA would have been better right?

In simple terms: a bad pass defense has to be separated from a bad passing defensive scheme, something DVOA and other sabermetrics does not do. Hence, the article is off base.

Take the highlighted and substitute "scheme" for "talent" and it also applies. I don't understand your point. How well a team is coached effects how much hard they are to beat, so why would you separate them???

Let's say the Jets play the Colts in the playoffs. The Jets defenders beat the hell out of the Colts receivers and sack Peyton a couple of times and wins the game. Did the Jets pass defense miraculously improve? No, they simple used a different scheme than what they did against the Pats and Cards.

Ok, but again why separate them unless you are automatically assuming that Mangini could do nothing but improve? What if Mangini's schemes get worse, or stay the same? The bottom line is that the Jets defense has played averagely when you take the sum of their parts (talent+coaching)

Evolution is not inconsistency. Evolution is a progression. The Jets have gotten progressively better over the course of the season, as noted by Jason comparing now to what the defense was ranked in week 8.

I don't know the stats that Jason is referencing but if it's just points allowed vs. average points scored and you are using that to back up your point that DVOA lacks context then I don't know what to say..

And, again, the Pats moved the ball at will because the Jets played a vanilla defense. Mangini admitted it explicitely in his PCs. He said that the plan was double Randy and Wes and not blitz. They left Pace in coverage. By doing so, they also opened up a running lane for Cassel. That's all scheme.

Partially agreed (Lowrey also got owned which is talent). But why are you assuming that Mangini won't scheme poorly against the Colts or another good passing team? When assessing a teams strengths ands weaknesses, it's not necessarily meaningful to pinpoint coaching or talent unless you are trying to answer how to improve performance.

[CTM]

I agree with you. Scheme + talent is an issue. But CTM's BFS article assumes it's all talent which is inherently wrong.

By the way, look at the games you just mentioned:

Pats (week 2)--19 points allowed (PA)

Raiders--16 PA

Chiefs--24 PA

Bills--17 PA

In those games in which the passing defense had "issues" as you mention where the Jets were not protecting a lead, the defense only gave up, on average 19 ppg.

Compare that to the games CTM's BFS article cite and they only mention the games where the Jets were protecting a lead, but don't mention that. Do you see the problem?

Where did I say it was solely talent? I'm saying there no reason to separate the two because they are factors in our success stopping the pass.

And besides, the Pats in week 2 and the other 3 teams are some of the poorest offenses in the league. The fact that the Jets allowed them to perform averagely only helps proves the point that the defense is average????

Finally, the catch up passing stats are diminished in DVOA due to the time remaining and deficit. Meaning they don't carry as much weight as if they occurred from the beginning of the game. So yes, context is applied..

[Larz]

this is why sutton drives me nuts

"Only after the Jets built a big lead and switched to softer coverage was Collins able to find openings. Collins completed 9 of 10 passes for 120 of his 243 yards after the Titans had fallen behind by three scores. "

why let teams back in the game ?

I thought the best part of having a lead is you get to make your opponent one-dimensional, you can "pin your ears back" and attack the QB

I ****ing hate sutton

[jason423]

I don't know the stats that Jason is referencing but if it's just points allowed vs. average points scored and you are using that to back up your point that DVOA lacks context then I don't know what to say..

My biggest beef all the time with DVOA is that it is basically a cold statistical look at players. They will rank a guy like Jason Campbell who plays on an offense that is dreadful and couldn't score a TD if you put them at the 10 yard line and say he is better than a player like Favre because Favre doesnt necessarily take the conventional apprach in a conventional situation. Im not sure where Campbell actually rates but I know those guys have been predicting him to be awesome for like 2 years so Id imagine he is higher than Brett this year.

I think it works somewhat the same way on defense. The Jets do a great job protecting big plays which should count for something. But they give up the conventional pass in a pretty conventional spot. Id imagine they rank the Jets around 18 or 19, but Id actually take the Jets pass defense over a team that gets bruned badly sometimes like the Eagles who I would guess rank higher.

That said it does give a pretty solid idea of how certain teams are going to compete against other squads. I just dont care a ton for how they rank their players and really think they need to adjust for home/away splits. Huge differences for some of these teams in that respect.

[Aten]

You guys are missing the point. Look at the DVOA numbers. Now look at the playoff odds. The Jets are being projected as having roughly a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 50% shot at securing a bye by a system that doesn't even consider us to be all that good. Let's save this one for an odd year.

[CTM]

You guys are missing the point. Look at the DVOA numbers. Now look at the playoff odds. The Jets are being projected as having roughly a 90% chance of making the playoffs and a 50% shot at securing a bye by a system that doesn't even consider us to be all that good. Let's save this one for an odd year.

But that's because our remaining schedule consists primarily of teams that it really, really think sucks..

[Aten]

But that's because our remaining schedule consists primarily of teams that it really, really think sucks..

Well, don't they?

[CTM]

My biggest beef all the time with DVOA is that it is basically a cold statistical look at players. They will rank a guy like Jason Campbell who plays on an offense that is dreadful and couldn't score a TD if you put them at the 10 yard line and say he is better than a player like Favre because Favre doesnt necessarily take the conventional apprach in a conventional situation. Im not sure where Campbell actually rates but I know those guys have been predicting him to be awesome for like 2 years so Id imagine he is higher than Brett this year.

I think it works somewhat the same way on defense. The Jets do a great job protecting big plays which should count for something. But they give up the conventional pass in a pretty conventional spot. Id imagine they rank the Jets around 18 or 19, but Id actually take the Jets pass defense over a team that gets bruned badly sometimes like the Eagles who I would guess rank higher.

That said it does give a pretty solid idea of how certain teams are going to compete against other squads. I just dont care a ton for how they rank their players and really think they need to adjust for home/away splits. Huge differences for some of these teams in that respect.

I think DVOA is stronger for teams then it is players but I agree it has it's biases. It doesn't have a win correlation of 1, so clearly it's not perfect nor could it be..

I believe it should increase the boost for what happens in the red zone as well as figure out a way to boost momentum killing and momentum creating plays. One thing I've noticed about Favre, who isn't really valued very highly by any of these efficiency stats yet is clearly a winner, is that the ice in his veins allows him to successfully kill another teams momentum with a big drive or big third down completion. Brady is good like that too.

[CTM]

Well, don't they?

Of course

[Aten]

this is why sutton drives me nuts

"Only after the Jets built a big lead and switched to softer coverage was Collins able to find openings. Collins completed 9 of 10 passes for 120 of his 243 yards after the Titans had fallen behind by three scores. "

why let teams back in the game ?

I thought the best part of having a lead is you get to make your opponent one-dimensional, you can "pin your ears back" and attack the QB

I ****ing hate sutton

Agreed. I've had it with this pansy-ass keeping our players healthy bull****. RUN IT UP.

[Larz]

Agreed. I've had it with this pansy-ass keeping our players healthy bull****. RUN IT UP.

did you forget the sarcasm smily ?