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AFC Playoff Race - Week 13


Pyper

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This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 11-1; Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2

2) Steelers: 9-3; Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

3) Jets: 8-4; @SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5

4) Broncos: 7-5; KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10-6

5) Colts: 8-4; Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 3 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

6) Ravens: 8-4; Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5

=====================================================

7) Dolphins: 7-5; @Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6

8) Patriots: 7-5; @Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10–6

9) Bills: 6-6; Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 0 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 8-8

What this shows me is that the Patriots likely need to win out to make the playoffs. Our conference record essentially puts us 1.5 games back of Baltimore with four to play. That means we need to go 4-0 and hope they drop two (or one and a tie).

Eleven wins could also take the division if the Jets drop one to the Bills or Dolphins. We need them to lose a division game to force the deciding tie-breaker to be our records vs common opponents.

For you novices out there, the easiest way to figure out the records vs common opponents is to look at the records against non-common opponents instead since that only involves calculating two games instead of 14. The Patriots went 0-2 (Ind,Pit) in those games and the Jets went 2-0(Ten,Cin). Obviously to finish tied with them with the same overall record we'd need to finish two games better in the common-opponent games.

That's how the Jets beat us out for the division in 2002 so there would be a certain amount of irony if we could return the favor this year.

As far as the Dolphins go, it's a little bit more complicated. If the Dolphins win out and also finish 11-5, it could create a 3 way tie with the Jets (assuming the Jets win all their games except the Miami game).

Under such a scenario, an eleven win team would miss the postseason. In this case, it would be the Jets b/c both Miami and New England would have better records vs common opponents. (NOTE: This assumes Indy wins 11 or 12 games and takes the 5th seed).

Interestingly, the Dolphins, like the Patriots, lost both of their non-common games (Hou,Bal). That would force the next tie-breaker to be used. Conference Record. If both teams finish 11-5, the Dolphins would take the tie-breaker. If the Patriots win out, they'll finish unbeaten vs the NFC while the Fish have already lost to Arizona. That means Miami would have a one game advantage in the AFC games.

Here are the tie-breakers.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

So the Dolphins would take the east in the greatest single season turnaround in league history and the Patriots would be the 6th seeded Wild Card while the Jets would be watching at home despite an impressive 11-5 season and late season victory over the top seeded Titans.

I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.

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I'd like to make a toast. Here's to the Jets becoming the 2nd 11-5 team in NFL history to watch the playoffs from home ('85 Broncos).

:cheers:

CHEERS!!!

I can oblige.

How about the Dolphins win their next three games then go to the Meadowlands and win the division on the final day of the season?:cheers:

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I'd like to make a toast. Here's to the Jets becoming the 2nd 11-5 team in NFL history to watch the playoffs from home ('85 Broncos).

:cheers:

CHEERS!!!

Jets have the tiebreaker over everyone in the AFC East if they go 3-1 and their one loss is on the road.

If both NE & the Jets went 11-5, the Jets get it due to division recod.

If the Jets did go 3-1 in the final 4 with their one loss on the road, Miami at best could be 10-6 and takes them out of the equation.

Buffalo already out of the equation.

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I can oblige.

How about the Dolphins win their next three games then go to the Meadowlands and win the division on the final day of the season?:cheers:

:rl: Where ya been the last week Aquaqueer ? I know Gainzo was looking foward to chattin last week. I guess he learned that if the DolFAGS lose you disappear. :P Here's a toast to you .....staying away :cheers:

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Jets have the tiebreaker over everyone in the AFC East if they go 3-1 and their one loss is on the road.

If both NE & the Jets went 11-5, the Jets get it due to division recod.

If the Jets did go 3-1 in the final 4 with their one loss on the road, Miami at best could be 10-6 and takes them out of the equation.

Buffalo already out of the equation.

We're both correct. If the Jets beat the Bills and Fish they will win the tie-breaker based on a better division record.

However, if the Jets lose one of those games, let's say the season finale for example, the Jets could end up coming in 3rd place.

Let me put it another way. If the Pats and Fish win out, the Jets miss the playoffs. If all three finish 11-5, the Jets miss the playoffs. Isn't that great? That would be absolutely hilarious.

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Let me put it another way. If the Pats and Fish win out, the Jets miss the playoffs. If all three finish 11-5, the Jets miss the playoffs. Isn't that great? That would be absolutely hilarious.

Heh. That would be the luck of the Jets. Lose the division and a playoff berth on the final day of the season to CHAD PENNINGTON and the Miami Dolphins. :face:

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Good stuff, Pyper.

It still staggers me the benefit of the doubt given the Fins on this site.

Do people forget that the Jets are playing at home week 17? Miami has to go 3-0 down the stretch and beat the Jets on the road in a game that means something to both teams in order to make the playoffs.

Plus, this is Chad Pennington we're talking about who is trying to make it through a full 16 game season for only the second time in his career AND win 11 games for the first time ever.

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Good stuff, Pyper.

It still staggers me the benefit of the doubt given the Fins on this site.

Do people forget that the Jets are playing at home week 17? Miami has to go 3-0 down the stretch and beat the Jets on the road in a game that means something to both teams in order to make the playoffs.

Plus, this is Chad Pennington we're talking about who is trying to make it through a full 16 game season for only the second time in his career AND win 11 games for the first time ever.

as much as I hate penny Miami has done well with him. They have also kept him on his feet and off his back.

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We're both correct. If the Jets beat the Bills and Fish they will win the tie-breaker based on a better division record.

However, if the Jets lose one of those games, let's say the season finale for example, the Jets could end up coming in 3rd place.

Let me put it another way. If the Pats and Fish win out, the Jets miss the playoffs. If all three finish 11-5, the Jets miss the playoffs. Isn't that great? That would be absolutely hilarious.

When your whole scenario goes down the crapper, make sure that you come back so that we can all have a good laugh about it.

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When your whole scenario goes down the crapper, make sure that you come back so that we can all have a good laugh about it.

Well... Obviously it's not likely to happen. Odds are that the Dolphins or Patriots will probably drop one of their last four.

However, you gotta admit that it would be great drama if the Dolphins, Pats, and Jets were all playing for their playoff lives in week 17. That would be the perfect end to this extremely competitive season.

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as much as I hate penny Miami has done well with him. They have also kept him on his feet and off his back.

They have done well with him.

But people are acting like its a lock that he'll do something he's only done once (stay healthy) and something else he's never done (lead a team to 11 wins).

By the way, Chad has been 7-5 before. He lost the following week to the Bills on the road to be 7-6. That was in 2006. Chad had actually gotten all the way to 9-3 in 2004, but ended up 10-6.

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I think I'm rooting for that scenario to play out. I love it when the Jets get their hearts ripped out.

Is there a scenario that the jets will play dolphins on the last week with EAST already clinched, and a MIA loss sends NE to the playoffs and a MIA win sends NE home?

Do you think Mangini rests his starters to ensure BB does not get into the playoffs and CP gets in?

I would. HAHAHHAAAAA!!!! Thats what I'm rooting for. Snubby snubbertons.

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Is there a scenario that the jets will play dolphins on the last week with EAST already clinched, and a MIA loss sends NE to the playoffs and a MIA win sends NE home?

Do you think Mangini rests his starters to ensure BB does not get into the playoffs and CP gets in?

I would. HAHAHHAAAAA!!!! Thats what I'm rooting for. Snubby snubbertons.

Sure. If the Patriots lose another game. If we finish 10-6, we're pretty much screwed. Too many conference losses.

Even if we go 11-5, we need help. We'll lose tie-breakers to the Colts and Ravens. Indy is pretty much a lock to win at least 11 games so we need Baltimore to lose twice (or once with a tie)

But back to your question, the only way the Jets get in if they lose to Miami is if the Patriots or Dolphins drop one along the way.

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But back to your question, the only way the Jets get in if they lose to Miami is if the Patriots or Dolphins drop one along the way.

So Fins win next 3, jets win next 3, pats go 2-1... Also BAL or IND has to lose a couple.

If the jets fins game gets moved to later (i heard it would be moved to the night game)

You could have a scenario where NE beats BUF in the afternoon, this means if the Jets win the Pats are in and if the Jets lose the fins are in.

Mangini will rest his starters. And play NT himself. No way he lets BB into the playoffs when he can block it, I'll take our chances with the FINS.

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Not possible. There is no way Miami beats the Jets in week 17. The Jets are too good of a team to lose at home ;)

Against Miami, you're right. I believe only one of the four wins by Miami in the past 21 meetings was in the Meadowlands (2003). :P

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They have done well with him.

But people are acting like its a lock that he'll do something he's only done once (stay healthy) and something else he's never done (lead a team to 11 wins).

By the way, Chad has been 7-5 before. He lost the following week to the Bills on the road to be 7-6. That was in 2006. Chad had actually gotten all the way to 9-3 in 2004, but ended up 10-6.

Was he playing all 22 positions? Or was it the NEW YORK JETS that finished with those records?

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124, Jetkid, Thai and all you other morons claiming I wasn't here; check the post history.

How come you guys didn't show up after your loss to the Broncos?

See, I can make things up too, not difficult.

One post on the 23rd and no other posting until Tuesday.

Yet when they win, here you are today making TONS of posts. ;)

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I love it when opposing fans defend mediocrity after Jet fans were forced to do it since 2002.

I love when brilliant minds like yourself blame the quarterback for wins and losses. They should just do those quarterback competitions like they do at the pro-bowl to determine who wins the Super Bowl.

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I love when brilliant minds like yourself blame the quarterback for wins and losses. They should just do those quarterback competitions like they do at the pro-bowl to determine who wins the Super Bowl.

SWEET! Even on one leg, Brady could take that one easily.

So you're telling me there's a chance...

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