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AFC Playoff Race - Week 14


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This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 12-1; Hou,Pit,@Ind; 1 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2

2) Steelers: 10-3; Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 12-4

3) Dolphins: 8-5; SF,KC,@NYJ; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5

4) Broncos: 8-5; @Car,Buf,@SD; 0 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5

5) Colts: 9-4; Det,@Jax,Ten; 2 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

6) Ravens: 9-4; Pit,@Dal,Jax; 1 EW

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This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

Note: Teams are ordered based on their expected records, which is NOT necessarily the way it would look if the season were to end today. For example, the Jets are currently in line for the #4 seed but when we use the expected record formula they lose the AFC East title to the Miami Dolphins and fall to the #7 slot.

in my model the jets beat the dolphins in week 17 :cheers:

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The thing Jets fans can take solace in is that if they beat the Dolphins, it basically eliminates Miami from divisional contention. Unless the Jets lose the next two (which isn't happening) all you have to do is beat us in order for you to finish higher than us.

That week 1 game looms extremely large.

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This model projects us losing to SF or Buffalo (probable)

In my model, that scenario happens, with the Pats running the table

Pats 11-5

Jets 10-6

Phins 10-6

The Jets will be favored in every game they play the rest of the regular season. I am not sure how a "model" goes against what Vegas is saying.

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Lets beat a Buffalo team whose 1-6 in their last seven games and take it from there. Seattle will be tough on the road (I think we all saw how they almost beat New England yesterday with no Matt Hasselbeck or Walter Jones), we havn't won a West Coast trip yet, and Miami is going to be a dog fight.

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Max

Jets don;t deserve to be favorites right now

Playoff teams right the ship after a tough loss....our team just lost another game, rather than righting the ship

F-them

Taking the day off today....didn't sleep last night

I don't think the Jets have proved much either. The bottom line is this -- they will be favored in every game they play the rest of the year.

Buffalo at home

Seattle on the road

Miami at home

Vegas will list the Jets as favorites. I am not saying they will win them all. Just if a model is formulated, I am not sure what it is based on that Vegas doesn't know.

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All the Jets need to do is win out - defintely do-able. Seattle sucks - the Pats beat them with Grampa Seau playing an entire half - Colvin playing 22 snaps, Bruschi gone, Wilfork gone and Sanders gone - all during the game. That doesn't include who's already gone. So, if the Pats can beat 'em with popsicle sticks and elmers glue on defense - I suspect the Jets will win. Buffalo has all but mailed it in. It will come down to the Miami game. I still don't beleive Chad is capable of pullin' that one out. C'mon.....

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All the Jets need to do is win out - defintely do-able. Seattle sucks - the Pats beat them with Grampa Seau playing an entire half - Colvin playing 22 snaps, Bruschi gone, Wilfork gone and Sanders gone - all during the game. That doesn't include who's already gone. So, if the Pats can beat 'em with popsicle sticks and elmers glue on defense - I suspect the Jets will win. Buffalo has all but mailed it in. It will come down to the Miami game. I still don't beleive Chad is capable of pullin' that one out. C'mon.....

Senaca Wallace will run for 153 yds!!!!

Hawks win 31-17

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Listen, bottom line: Whomever wins the AFC East is not making much noise in the playoff's. Can you see any of the three contenders beating Indy, Pitt or Baltimore? Yah, me either :)

Yeah, it doesn't really matter. Indy and Baltimore have better than usual chances this year of making it out of the first round as wild cards. Unless the Jets get hot again or the Pats do some Pat stuff in the playoffs, none of these teams are doing anything.

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Actually yesterdays loss by the Jets had very little to impact on the division race other than increasing the importance of the Jets-Seahawks game.

If the Jets win their next three they win the division.

If the Fins win their next three they win the division.

For the Pats to win the division they must win their next three and both the Fins and Jets must lose one.

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Had the the Jets won yesterday, the Bills and Fins would have still been must win games for the Jets. If the Jets had won yesterday than the Jets could have lost SEA without risk of being passed by NE.

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The Jets will be favored in every game they play the rest of the regular season. I am not sure how a "model" goes against what Vegas is saying.

Haven't they been favored in the last two games they've played.

Or is that your sneaky way of making a point, and I'm just too stupid?

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Haven't they been favored in the last two games they've played.

Or is that your sneaky way of making a point, and I'm just too stupid?

No.

This is a model based on probability, it wasn't an opinion piece I don't think so anyway. My point is who is more probable of winning than the team that Vegas says is the favorite?

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