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AFC Playoff Race - Week 15


Pyper

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I realize that by now everyone knows the playoff situation but I figured I'd continue posting this model for anyone interested.

This projection model provides the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders if each of the contenders beat the poor teams on their schedule and split their games against other contending teams.

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 12-2; Pit,@Ind; 0 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 13-3

2) Steelers: 11-3; @Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 12.5 - 3.5

3) Jets: 9-5; @Sea,Mia; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5

4) Broncos: 8-6; Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 9.5 - 6.5

5) Colts: 10-4; @Jax,Ten; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5

6) Ravens: 9-5; @Dal,Jax; 1 EW’s; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5–5.5

================================================

7) Dolphins: 9-5; @KC,@NYJ; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 - 5.5

8) Patriots: 9-5; Ari,@Buf; 1 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5

9) Chargers: 6-8; @TB,Den; 0 EW's, 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 7-9

Note: Teams are ordered based on their expected records, which is NOT necessarily the way it would look if the season were to end today.

Patriots most likely road to the playoffs: AFC Wild Card

Scenerio #1:

Patriots must win out and finish 11-5

Ravens must lose or tie one game, at Dallas or at home vs the Jaguars

Scenerio #2:

Patriots must win out and finish 11-5

Colts must lose twice or lose once and tie once, at Jax and at home vs the Titans

Patriots road to the division title and #3 seed:

Patriots must win out and finish 11-5

Both the Jets and Dolphins each must lose or tie one game (In addition to playing one another week 17, the Jets and Dolphins both have very winnable games next week. The saving grace is that both of their games are on the road against teams (Seattle & Kansas City) that appear to be playing hard, if not necessarily well). As long as one of them loses this week and we win versus Arizona, we'll enter week 17 with a reasonable shot at the division title. If both win, the only way we take the division is if the Dolphins and Jets tie in week 17, which obviously isn't very likely.

Who to root for in Week 16:

1) Patriots over Cardinals

2) Cowboys over Ravens

3a) Seahawks over Jets

3b) Chiefs over Dolphins

4a) Jaguars over Colts

4b) Steelers over Titans (This one might need explaining. If Tennessee wins they clinch the #1 seed and will have nothing to play for when they play the Colts in week 17. On the other hand, if the Steelers win, the Titans would enter week 17 needing a win vs the Colts and a Steelers loss to the Browns to regain the #1 seed. That should be enough to keep their starters in the game.)

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I would SO much rather playing the Pats in the first round then the Ravens. The Ravens scare me.

If the Jets make it I would rather play the Ravens. Great defense yes, terrible offense. That fits in well with what the Jets are currently doing well. Good offense, opportunistic defense.

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I would SO much rather playing the Pats in the first round then the Ravens. The Ravens scare me.

sorry, but I would rather play any other team in the entire league than the pats. They just have a plan when it comes to us. I almost slit my wrists in the stands in foxborough earlier this year when we almost lost, do not want to go through that one again.

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sorry, but I would rather play any other team in the entire league than the pats. They just have a plan when it comes to us. I almost slit my wrists in the stands in foxborough earlier this year when we almost lost, do not want to go through that one again.

It's called "Show up and let the jets beat themselves"

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sorry, but I would rather play any other team in the entire league than the pats. They just have a plan when it comes to us. I almost slit my wrists in the stands in foxborough earlier this year when we almost lost, do not want to go through that one again.

I rather play the Pats than Steelers/Raven by a long shot.

I rather play the Colts/Titans than the Pats.

BZ

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