***Official JN Jay Cutler Talk - All Jay, All Day*** [Merged 49X]

[Klecko73isGod]

Who is tracking, or better yet determining what exactly constitutes "near interceptions?"

[NFLs StepChild]

I like KC Joyner's stuff a lot, but Cutler's a young player on the rise while Favre was an old player in steady decline. I'll take my chances that on a more complete team, with better defense, and a coach constantly preaching NO TURNOVERS, that he will improve rather drastically in the risk taking department.

That's the million dollar question. Does Cutler play within the system or is he going to look to air it out like Favre did. Mangini reigned him in for like 2 or 3 weeks with that whole don't press on 20 speach, but Favre is who he is, and Cutler seems to be of the same mindset.

[SMC]

The first basic rule of the market is supply and demand. There's one young franchise (potential?) caliber QB on the market, and a handful of teams that would love to have him. That handful of teams will bid for the QB and drive the market up.

This isn't like Terry Bradway bidding against himself for the rights to the great Justin McCariens. There's a line for Cutler, and if the Jets really want him, they are going to have to pay.

If this is really your thinking -that they've driven his value down- you're going to be shocked at what Denver gets for him if/when they do trade him.

No, I won't be shocked. But you will be at what he's traded for. As I've said, if I'm making predictions, 2 1st rounders will be the ceiling, not the floor and I doubt it will actually go up to 2 1st rounders.

[NFLs StepChild]

Who is tracking, or better yet determining what exactly constitutes "near interceptions?"

Cutler HATERS - that's who...

This story has a negative slant towards Cutler and therefore invalid. Everyone knows that Cutler has no downside.

I have seen Chuck Norris threads on the internet evolve into Jay Cutler threads because Jay Culter is a superior being.

I'd like to see the data and process on how Joyner got to the conclusions, but I don't think he is making this stuff up. He always compares apples to apples and is pretty good with his analysis. Sometimes he overanalyzes things, but he's a geek.

[Klecko73isGod]

You're digging yourself a hole here. Best to let it go.

First, no, Atlanta did not trade up.

Second, the Jets DID try to trade up.

Ron Wolf worked for the Jets in 1991 and loved Favre. The Jets had a deal in place with the Cardinals for the 32nd pick (1 ahead of Atlanta), but then, literally at the last minute, the Cardinals backed out of the deal and picked a DE. Atlanta picked Favre with the next pick.

Actually, it was the Giants who the Jets initally tried to trade with. They held the last pick in the first round, #28 at the time. But the Giants were afraid FB Jarrod Bunch wouldn't be there five picks later.

You can't make this stuff up.

[NFLs StepChild]

Actually, it was the Giants who the Jets initally tried to trade with. They held the last pick in the first round, #28 at the time. But the Giants were afraid FB Jarrod Bunch wouldn't be there five picks later.

You can't make this stuff up.

A young Favre would have been found lying in a gutter in Times Square chewing Valium and Percasets like tic tacs.

[SMC]

Intrinsic value doesn't have to be presently quantifiable. The exclusive right to pay a player for his services is clearly inherently worth something even where both what he'll cost and how he'll play are obviously subject to uncertainty. The debacle lowers the Broncos' ceiling but not their floor.

Yes, I agree. But I don't agree with abso's point that 2 1st rounders will be the floor. That's the ceiling because of these 3 factors:

1. Cutler is potentially a franchise QB rather than a bona fide franchise QB in his prime;

2. Cutler is disgruntled/McMoron is an idiot/Bowlen says he doesn't want an unhappy QB; and

3. Cutler will demand a new contract with his new team.

The market will drive what happens, and there may be a "dumb owner" out there, but each of those potential trade partners will try to exploit these 3 factors in negotiation.

[SMC]

Actually, it was the Giants who the Jets initally tried to trade with. They held the last pick in the first round, #28 at the time. But the Giants were afraid FB Jarrod Bunch wouldn't be there five picks later.

You can't make this stuff up.

True. BUT, the Giants were not the only team the Jets tried to trade with. Ron Wolf mentioned the Cards scenario in a SDNY segment last year. The Jets tried to make a trade with different teams.

[Nick Ferraro]

What's not factored in this is the fact that Favre was an experienced quarterback in his 37th season. Cutler is entering only his fourth year in the league and third as a full-time starter. He is entering his prime and will be one of the best in the league.

The stats cited assume that he will track at the exact same level as last year in all categories. That is not going to happen. He will improve on the mistake categories as his experience and maturity grows. His mistake stats were also inflated because of how much passing the defensively challenged Broncos had to do. They were also unable to run effectively due to injuries to their RBs.

If you insert Cutler into the Jets roster, you have a 12-13 win team. The only question is what's the price? Any and all reasosnable attempts to get him should be made.

[slats]

That's the million dollar question. Does Cutler play within the system or is he going to look to air it out like Favre did. Mangini reigned him in for like 2 or 3 weeks with that whole don't press on 20 speach, but Favre is who he is, and Cutler seems to be of the same mindset.

Go back and look at how many points Denver's dee gave up. They were 30th in scoring dee, 29th in overall dee. The QB had no choice but to air it out!

Favre became who he was over a long career of being viewed as a god by his adoring fans. Cutler's still very young. Put him in a new situation, with a support group around him, and see what he does. He might surprise you when he's not playing from behind on every possession.

And with his arm on the team, I'm sure they won't mind trying to air it out within the system once in a while, either.

[JohnnyHector]

What an insightful statistical analysis...

For me to poop on!

[Thai Jet]

Juat say NO

[slats]

Yes, I agree. But I don't agree with abso's point that 2 1st rounders will be the floor. That's the ceiling because of these 3 factors:

1. Cutler is potentially a franchise QB rather than a bona fide franchise QB in his prime;

2. Cutler is disgruntled/McMoron is an idiot/Bowlen says he doesn't want an unhappy QB; and

3. Cutler will demand a new contract with his new team.

The market will drive what happens, and there may be a "dumb owner" out there, but each of those potential trade partners will try to exploit these 3 factors in negotiation.

Honestly? I agree with this. You seemed to be low-balling more. Maybe I misread...

So are you okay with the Jets being the team that gives up two first rounders? Or a first, second, and third? A first and a starter? A first, a QB off our roster, and a conditional pick?

I think the bidding is going to go right up to your ceiling, and two firsts from Detroit will presumably be more attractive than two firsts from the Jets. So if you're the Jets and you want him, how far do you go?

[CTM]

True. BUT, the Giants were not the only team the Jets tried to trade with. Ron Wolf mentioned the Cards scenario in a SDNY segment last year. The Jets tried to make a trade with different teams.

Yes, there was a team other then the Giants. Kleck and I had this debate one otehr time but I forget who it was. It may have been a third team.

Ultimately Rob Moore is what cost the Jets Favre. I remember being psyched when we took him in the supplemental draft and gave up the following years #1, who knew at the time this move would lead to Nagle instead of Favre and 20 years of QB instability... lol.

[SMC]

Honestly? I agree with this. You seemed to be low-balling more. Maybe I misread...

So are you okay with the Jets being the team that gives up two first rounders? Or a first, second, and third? A first and a starter? A first, a QB off our roster, and a conditional pick?

I think the bidding is going to go right up to your ceiling, and two firsts from Detroit will presumably be more attractive than two firsts from the Jets. So if you're the Jets and you want him, how far do you go?

The fault is mine for not being clearer.

I would be okay with the Jets giving up 2 1st rounders for Cutler (although I prefer the 2nd 1st rounder to be conditional).

I would be okay with the Jets giving up a 1st rounder and other picks (3rd this year & 2nd next year perhaps).

I would be okay with the Jets giving up a 1st rounder, another high pick (2nd or 3rd) and Clemens/Ratliff.

I will not give up a 1st rounder and a starter.

As to Detroit. I have to strongly disagree. I don't believe there is anyway in hell that: (1) Detroit is willing to give up the No. 1 overall plus next year's No. 1 (likely top 5 pick) and (2) Broncos want the 1st overall.

[Klecko73isGod]

Yes, there was a team other then the Giants. Kleck and I had this debate one otehr time but I forget who it was. It may have been a third team.

Ultimately Rob Moore is what cost the Jets Favre. I remember being psyched when we took him in the supplemental draft and gave up the following years #1, who knew at the time this move would lead to Nagle instead of Favre and 20 years of QB instability... lol.

I prefer to blame the Giants.

[SMC]

I prefer to blame the Giants.

And you have every right to.

[slats]

I will not give up a 1st rounder and a starter.

That's cool. I think that's what it might take, though.

As to Detroit. I have to strongly disagree. I don't believe there is anyway in hell that: (1) Detroit is willing to give up the No. 1 overall plus next year's No. 1 (likely top 5 pick) and (2) Broncos want the 1st overall.

Denver probably wouldn't want the #1 overall. The risk:expense ratio being so high. But Detroit also has the #20 pick this year, higher picks in every other round than the Jets, and most likely a (much?) higher #1 selection in the 2010 draft. I'm thinking they can put together a more attractive package of picks than the Jets can. I think that's what they're up against.

[Thai Jet]

LOL.

I've wondered how the Bucs 19th pick is more valuable than the Jets' 17th.

It's the new math.

[SMC]

That's cool. I think that's what it might take, though.

I agree on your Detroit point.

But I don't see the Jets having to give up a 1st & a starter when no other team has to do that.

[slats]

I agree on your Detroit point.

But I don't see the Jets having to give up a 1st & a starter when no other team has to do that.

Well, if Detroit has a better offer of picks on the table, what do the Jets do to get Cutler? The team that lands him might have to give up more than they originally intended.

[afosomf]

Well, if Detroit has a better offer of picks on the table, what do the Jets do to get Cutler? The team that lands him might have to give up more than they originally intended.

denver does not want #1 pick in draft

i think jets have to offer 2 #1's clemens/ratliff and maybe a next year 3rd rd pick

[billo83]

That's cool. I think that's what it might take, though.

Denver probably wouldn't want the #1 overall. The risk:expense ratio being so high. But Detroit also has the #20 pick this year, higher picks in every other round than the Jets, and most likely a (much?) higher #1 selection in the 2010 draft. I'm thinking they can put together a more attractive package of picks than the Jets can. I think that's what they're up against.

Another factor to consider is if Cutler would even want to go to Detroit. Obviously Denver could force the trade, but any team acquiring Cutler knows that he will demand a new contract. That would be impossible if he doesn't want to go there to begin with. I really don't see Cutler going there for this and the other reasons alreadsy stated.

[afosomf]

Another factor to consider is if Cutler would even want to go to Detroit. Obviously Denver could force the trade, but any team acquiring Cutler knows that he will demand a new contract. That would be impossible if he doesn't want to go there to begin with. I really don't see Cutler going there for this and the other reasons alreadsy stated.

he would have calvin johnson ....and would make detroit competitve in weak

div

[NFLs StepChild]

denver does not want #1 pick in draft

i think jets have to offer 2 #1's clemens/ratliff and maybe a next year 3rd rd pick

No they don't have to offer anything. And they shouldn't go in thinking they have to get Cutler or it's the end of the world. Make a fair offer and if it gets too rich, walk away.

Keep getting impact players at key positions and build a strong team through the draft. If we try out all 3 of our young QBs this year, and all of them fail, we'll be in position for a great QB option in the draft next year, or not. Cutler is NOT the be all end all people are making him out to be.

[SMC]

Well, if Detroit has a better offer of picks on the table, what do the Jets do to get Cutler? The team that lands him might have to give up more than they originally intended.

Then he goes to Detroit.

I'm pretty confident in my belief that Rex would not screw with his defense to get a player on offense. So unless the Jets are offering an offensive starter, then no.

[SMC]

he would have calvin johnson ....and would make detroit competitve in weak

div

Weak division? Then what is the AFC West? Cripple?

NFC North >>> AFC West

[slats]

If we try out all 3 of our young QBs this year, and all of them fail, we'll be in position for a great QB option in the draft next year, or not. Cutler is NOT the be all end all people are making him out to be.

Cutler's not the be all and end all, but he is a bird in the hand compared to all the other birds in the draft. Most of the "great QB's" in next year's draft could go easily fall on their faces like the classes of '99 or '03. Happens ALL the time. Here you're looking at a guy who's already had a pretty successful transition to the pros who isn't much older than a fresh draft pick.

[RutgersJetFan]

Weak division? Then what is the AFC West? Cripple?

Now that was hilarious.

[afosomf]

Weak division? Then what is the AFC West? Cripple?

NFC North >>> AFC West

there are no great teams in NFC North...none of them are great

AFC west is terrible

[NFLs StepChild]

Cutler's not the be all and end all, but he is a bird in the hand compared to all the other birds in the draft. Most of the "great QB's" in next year's draft could go easily fall on their faces like the classes of '99 or '03. Happens ALL the time. Here you're looking at a guy who's already had a pretty successful transition to the pros who isn't much older than a fresh draft pick.

And that's great, I still want him, but not at the risk of losing the opportunity to take other players. Fear of failure is not a reason to avoid trying. This sure thing you are all banking on in Cutler delivering for us is worth in your (collective you) estimation another 1st round pick or starting player.

I don't think Cutler is a sure thing to succeed in NY and for the long term. 50/50 imo. All world talent, but that's not all it takes. So the risk of losing another high draft pick which could equate to a elite player is foolish.

But everyone is assuming the draft pick this year and next year is going to fail anyway. Which is just as convenient as assuming Cutler will be successful here.

[billo83]

he would have calvin johnson ....and would make detroit competitve in weak

div

I'm also looking at it from a organizational/FO standpoint. Cutler feels screwed over by the HC and owner. I would think he'd be very leery about going to the most dysfunctional team in the league after this fiasco.

[afosomf]

I'm also looking at it from a organizational/FO standpoint. Cutler feels screwed over by the HC and owner. I would think he'd be very leery about going to the most dysfunctional team in the league after this fiasco.

well they have a new coach, who should do well

they will give him new contract

no expectations first year, and they compete in a very average conference

with no great teams.

they will have #1 pick in the draft, which prob will be LT in they get JC

[billo83]

well they have a new coach, who should do well

they will give him new contract

no expectations first year, and they compete in a very average conference

with no great teams.

they will have #1 pick in the draft, which prob will be LT in they get JC

Well they have a new coach in Denver also and that's what started this whole mess; another reason he may be a bit leery.

I'm not saying Detriot wouldn't try to offer a new contract. What I am saying is that he may make it next to impossible if he really doesn't want to go there.

Look at it from Detroits perspective. If Cutler doesn't want to go there, do you really think they would want to press the issue and inherit the nighmare that Denver has on it's hands?

As far as the draft - when was the last time Detroit had a good one? They've often been in the top tier in picking. More than likely they will be pick the next Adrian Clarke than the next Adrian Peterson.

[afosomf]

Well they have a new coach in Denver also and that's what started this whole mess; another reason he may be a bit leery

little different

this coach would actually want him.........