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JN Mafia Game 2: Dawn of The Dead Edition


ZachEY
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Yeah - Borgo gave me some advice on embedding youtube clips and suggested I check my UserCP. Once I was there, I figured I'd hit the button.

Crush, Chan, good luck on your coin flip tonight

Anyone else not buying this? Seems awfully convenient for Doggin to go invisible all of a sudden once the crap started flying. You know, when a mafia member was outted and they were probably frantically deciding what to do?

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All right guys. I wanted to put my feelings out there. I had a list of 3. I investigated one, that result will not be published. The other 2 I had suspicions of and one is stronger then the other.

This person has had some odd voting patterns. JiF I believe got NK'd due to his incredible research he put together, it was a very thorough post echoed some of my sentiments. I called out a person in particular, he didn't like it much and JiF was one of the guys who believed my initial feelings.

I think we need to go after Crusher. He's on for a quick burst... gone, on for a quick burst... gone. He desperately wanted in this game, only to come out when he's called out (sound familiar?) and then gone.

He hasn't made any real "waves" to be a name at the forefront of this game. Sometimes scum eliminates those who have questioned them but never really got a real front and center bandwagon going. JiF I think touched a nerve. He really questioned Crusher to which Crusher got pissed off and basically wrote me off as being "a guy who voted for myself." I did, cause I got beat up for two days, but it still was enough to annoy him.

I still feel JiF was alluding to some people, one of them being Crusher.

He had a lone vote in on Woody... distancing vote? Seems likely.

He pulled his vote off of Woody after the reveal. He hasn't done anything to shake waves... and finally. Go ahead and look at who cast the "kill vote" for Woody? Good ol' Crusher, just in the nick of time to put that final distance between him and a guy he KNEW was screwed.

Combo that final thought with the JiF factor I'm voting.

Vote: Crusher

Posted right after the night phase. Unless this is some ridiculous deep game the mafia is playing, they targeted the doctor and the doctor thankfully protected himself during the night. At this point, vicious thinks he has some good will for killling woody off and he tries to lynch the good doctor. Look who votes for crusher second. Doggin. It's masked well because Vicious opens crusher up to discussion and crusher's inactivity gives him a reason to start a wagon.

look at the post right before this one. Doggin absolutely NAILs what he mafia did over the night. He's a brilliant guy, but a bunch of us except CTM weren't sure what to think of Vicious at this point. Is it insider knowledge? Let me ask Bleedin green as he's as experienced without being the cop as anyone, did you think of this very quickly? Is it experience talking or insider knowledge? The mafia targeting the real doctor who was hidden in the shadows, and the doctor actually protecting himself was a lucky situation. One that Doggin accurately called almost immediately.

We've kept Doggin around because he has the potential to provide us with a lot of help. But so far, he's been at the lead bandwagoning for Jets Babe, Norway, and now the doctor. It's not definite proof, but Doggin hasn't really "helped" much has he? He could be just unlucky, but i tell you what, Doggin better start helping real soon.

Look at Vicious's posts. Who has he actively called for a bandwagon to start on? Irish Jet on a number of occasions and Thor (which is kind of a vote for confidence). Who has he sort of mentioned offhandedly as shouldn't be discounted or "has too much sway" and yet never goes further, and on a few occasions agrees with his analysis? Doggin.

Why go invisible mode Doggin? Especially the timing? With the mafia frantically needing direction to the point where Vicious goes AWOL deciding what to do, that's when you choose to go invisible so we can't see if you go into PM or not?

The mafia has been well run to this point and I have a strong suspicion it's one of the superior players. I believe CTM is the real cop. And right now, I'm strongly suspecting that the Jedi master here needs to come under more scrutiny. I'd like to hear if CTM has investigated Doggin as he mentioned he might do.

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That's only true if he has two or more names.

Right now it's 8:2. With Crush and Chan cemented as 2 on the innocent side. (again, if anyone out there is the "real" cop and Chan is lying, NOW would be the time to say so)

If Chan has 2 innocent names, he should reveal them. That will put us at 4 knowns and 6 unknowns, with 2 of the 6 mafia. We just lynch and investigate our way through those 6, and we win fairly easy; for every known innocent other than Chan the mafia night kills, we gain another from Chan's investigations. The mafia can't win this game, numerically, unless they take out Chan.

And if they do take out Chan, it would be helpful to know the names before he dies.

On the other hand, if he has only 1 or no names, then the numbers don't favor us so much, and better not to get a known innocent targeted.

And if Chan dies, which is 50-50 at this point, we get nothing.

If Crusher dies, Chan is releasing all his findings which should include 2 unreleased results.

If Chan dies without revealing, we get jack squat.

If Chan dies with revealing, we have the name of one alive innocent. 1/16 chance this innocent is the potential godfather remaining if there is one in this game. Which is more information than we had before. This confirmed innocent is the target of the next NK? 50-50 if Crusher does a real coin flip. But we improve our chances of lynching a mafia member during the day. I think the reward outweighs the risk here.

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My other top suspect is Jets Thing. IMO he's trying to play the low-key mafia member that doesn't immerse himself into anything out there while maintaining a level of activity.

Thor and WE haven't given me enough to judge. Woody's appearing/disappearing act is definitely sketchy, but he did say he has a lot of school work to do. As for Vicious, I don't agree with the role reveal, but what else are you gonna do when you've got a vote pile-on against you? It's likely that either Vicious or Woody is lying and they've both put our collective nuts in a vise, but we still shouldn't vote for them. Yet. Now here's the part where you tell me I'm suspicious for not wanting to vote for either of them and we're probably in cahoots. ;)

His "I'm the doctor" explanation? I'm not sold he's a zombie or a townie. His "busy with school work" explanation? Yeah. Last game, I had work out the hiney and I wasn't able to participate as much as I wanted.

As for CTM or Doggin - they're the two most experienced players in this game so I'm going to be suspicious of them no matter what. I never said I was suspicious of you.

What I found interesting was that while everyone generally got a guilty feeling on Woody, Jets Things was doing his best to straddle the fence on woody, a confirmed mafia.

2) He advocated a random lynch (as he did when he was a godfather) which is just a bad idea to the town putting power roles at risk.

3) His voting record is this: 1 bandwagon vote on Jets babe. 1 retaliatory vote on me.

Alone it's not convincing alone, but as part of a whole he's not voting at all staying out of the fray.

4) He's trying to pass off either CTM or Doggin as innocent purely because "odds" say one of them will probably be innocent. Which is wrong to assume and isn't based off of any content judgement. And this was his second implication that he believes doggin is innocent.

5) Has Jets Things posted anything that wasn't "after the fact commentary?" Has he gone hard after even one person in this game?

6)but Perhaps the most damning evidence... he got saved by Vicious a confirmed mafia.

quote=Vicious89x;1200082]JT and JVOR. I think you guys need to drop your debate. We got 4 votes in on Thor who has posted suspiciously and isnt' feeling heat yet. I think we should pressure him for some answers and think your votes could be better used there.

Also, Crusher is very on and off, a quick burst, then gone for a long time. This is a guy who missed last game and has been dying to play. Just an FYI.

Vicious was pulling hard for Thor/Raoulduke to get lynched (which suggests this character is innocent) and saves JT from a bandwagon potentially forming around him. Now why would Vicious go out of his way to save JT when he only had one vote on him? He didn't do it for any other character. And since we know Vicious is guilty...

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Nah forget that big guy. I think you've done enough suspicious things here to seal your own fate. You have until tonight, If I were you I'd try to find out who the real doctor is, cause I know you ain't getting to me.

Unvote: Crusher

Vote: WE

Still reading.

This looks like severe backpeddaling. Vic, say it ain't so?

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Wow. Work meeting/dinner/happy hour and I have 15 pages to catch up on. I'll say that around page 58, I started to suspect Vicious as lying...AND the fact that he was so adamantly defending Irish doesn't bode well for IJ. For now, I'll Vote: Vicous and if I'm (we're) right, Irish will be my next vote.

Missed his 3rd vote on Vicious. Which conveniently happens 2 minutes before Vicious votes for himself. Vicious voting for himself "hope you enjoyed the ride" meant the mafia decided to give him up in damage control. A little good will vote before you cast the mafia member away?

And like I said, Irish Jet is one of the guys Vicious repeatedly tried to get a bandwagon started on. My read on Irish Jet started to become more towards innocent with his refusal to lynch Norway and generally, I've noticed that he tries to be careful to lynch people unless it's necessary to lynch someone and he goes by his best feeling.

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Whoa what a flurry!!

- Very well played by Vic, and the whole Mafia gang I guess. Woody was the sacrifial lamb to dupe us into believing Vic was legit. I guess they picked Woody since people were already suspicious of him.

- Crusher, for Gods sake you have to talk less. I'll leave it at that.

- CTM I think you need to investigate people who chimed in very little on all the different reveals. WE has been way too silent throughout the game.

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I'm not so sure about that. They may have targeted someone else - the actual doc?

I can't imagine why they would target vicious - they had to know the real doc would protect him, since they knew Woody was a fake

So doggin goes from cold pegging the mafia's night actions...

Our current roster, objectively:

1. Doggin94it

2. RaoulDuke

3. Irish Jet

4. War Ensemble

5. shutout

6. Crusher

7. Jets Things

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM

10. Bleedin' Green

11. JVOR

(Vicious's status as innocent is confirmed, IMO - if he was mafia, the real finder should be screaming about it by now).

Vicious also knows at least one other player is innocent from his viewings last night, which means that for vicious, there are 9 unknown - 3 of which are likely mafia. Crusher is obviously one of those unknowns. That means he's got a 1 in 3 chance of being mafia, even outside of any suspicious activity.

Now, here's my list

1. Doggin94it (innocent)

2. RaoulDuke - took over for Thor, suspicious inactivity, now very active

3. Irish Jet - suspicious inactivity after being enthusiastic about signing up. Blamed on ski trip/school.

4. War Ensemble - same level of activity as prior game. No read yet.

5. shutout (presumed innocent)

6. Crusher - odd activity, weird linkage to JiF.

7. Jets Things - no read

8. Vicious98x (innocent)

9. CTM - pushed for Woody not to be investigated at all. Devious enough to risk no-kill on Vicious as confirming Woody (would work if Vic doesn't investigate Woody, which I made a possibility). Yes, I'm aware all of this applies to me as well, for the rest of you who can't know that I am, in fact, a townie.

10. Bleedin' Green - playing his typical, reasonable townie game, which he plays as both townie and mafia. No read.

11. JVOR - No read

Given all of that, I'm happy enough to vote for Crusher, as he's one of the unknowns and someone I'm mildly suspicious of. Would like to see some reaction.

As long as our doc stays alive, we should win this game

to establishing a "weird" linkage between Jif and Crusher, and still voting for crusher? Also, note that Doggin has "no read" on Jets Things (convenient) and no read on JVOR? No read on me? I've had the most posts in this thread outside of Vicious. He's also throwing Chan under the bus when he was the first one to come up with the "let's hold off on lynching Woody ordeal" But most importantly Read this post by CTM earlier in this thread:

that's why he may be fishing for a partner.. it's not uncommon to have roles that need to find one another..

normally i don't like playing the mod, but Crusher/Jif seems a little interesting to me.. (again though, maybe it's just cause they just bonded in the sucking thread)

This.

If my theory holds correct, I owe Crusher a big apology. He's actually been playing a very good game that may win it for the town. I believe Jif's character fished Crusher to be the doctor. Crusher must have found out afterwards and thus protected himself because he was worried it was obvious. Very good choice as the mafia caught onto this earlier and targeted Crusher. They knew Crusher was doctor at this point but wasn't sure if he'd just protect himself, so they went after Jif because he could have been the real cop because their fishing theory held up and Jif was representing a role earlier on. I don't really see Jif Making the mall character up on his own and it ominously disappeared after like the first day, indicating he probably fished Crusher. Keep in mind, the mafia came up with this by night 2. Since CTM is the cop, I think either BG or Doggin is capable of this, and like i've stated i think the bigger suspicion is on Doggin. Also, Jets Things acknowledges this linkage early on. Keep in mind this is a guy who said he came up with Peter Petrelli at the start of the game and saved himself from a lynch by saying "go townies' before the mod got there last game. He's more savvy than he is letting on.

I didn't see it until this morning, but clearly the mafia caught onto it very very early. Like I said, I think there's a very experienced guy running the show here.

I said Doggin is LIKELY innocent, simply by the numbers in the game.

"I'm going to wait until the resident expert weighs in before casting a vote." Where is the "faulty probability logic" in that?

Again, Doggin is likely innocent? Likely innocents get you into trouble. Who here had an innocent read on Doggin? Anybody? I know I was cautiously suspicious the whole time.

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Anyone else not buying this? Seems awfully convenient for Doggin to go invisible all of a sudden once the crap started flying. You know, when a mafia member was outted and they were probably frantically deciding what to do?

+1, especially when I called out Doggin on page 3 for not going invisible. Definitely strange.

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Again, Doggin is likely innocent? Likely innocents get you into trouble. Who here had an innocent read on Doggin? Anybody? I know I was cautiously suspicious the whole time.

Just because I said Doggin is "likely" innocent doesn't mean I'm not going to be cautiously suspicious. He's more experienced than anyone, which makes him potentially dangerous. BUT, and I don't think I can repeat this enough, I said based on NUMBERS, he's LIKELY innocent. And you're suspicious of me in every game. You and Woody and that METER guy have always zeroed in on me. :box:

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Just because I said Doggin is "likely" innocent doesn't mean I'm not going to be cautiously suspicious. He's more experienced than anyone, which makes him potentially dangerous. BUT, and I don't think I can repeat this enough, I said based on NUMBERS, he's LIKELY innocent. And you're suspicious of me in every game. You and Woody and that METER guy have always zeroed in on me. :box:

That's tough considering i've only played two games with you and the 1st one I got nked the 1st night without even voting for you.

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That's only true if he has two or more names.

Right now it's 8:2. With Crush and Chan cemented as 2 on the innocent side. (again, if anyone out there is the "real" cop and Chan is lying, NOW would be the time to say so)

If Chan has 2 innocent names, he should reveal them. That will put us at 4 knowns and 6 unknowns, with 2 of the 6 mafia. We just lynch and investigate our way through those 6, and we win fairly easy; for every known innocent other than Chan the mafia night kills, we gain another from Chan's investigations. The mafia can't win this game, numerically, unless they take out Chan.

And if they do take out Chan, it would be helpful to know the names before he dies.

On the other hand, if he has only 1 or no names, then the numbers don't favor us so much, and better not to get a known innocent targeted.

Doggin, I have 1 name and am strongly considering releasing it, it may sign this person's death warrant, but I figure it's not a bad deal to attract scum to target someone else. They are likely facing 8-2 disadvantage right now, so I have to imagine they will be strongly tempted not to risk missing a NK. Crusher, again, if I do release a name, don't get cute, protect you or me, based on a coin flip. With our numbers advantages the most important thing is making sure we live for as long as possible and the mafia can't win.

Thoughts?

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Chan - do not release the name yet, not with only 1.

Also, for anyone curious, here's the PM from Borgo that sent me to my UserCP:

Hey, what's up?

Here's a PM I sent to another poster that wanted to learn how to embed videos. I hope you find it useful. If not, feel free to PM me and I'll walk you through it.

Have a great evening.

BG

First, click on User CP located top left of this page. Then, find and click on Edit Options. Scroll down to the bottom until you get to Misc. Options. Make sure that you are in Enhanced Interface listed under Message Editor Interface.

Next, go to YouTube and find a video you like. Then, highlight and copy the portion of the http address AFTER the equal (=) sign. Next, go to the thread in which you wish to reply and click on Reply. After writing any text you desire, locate the YouTube icon, which is above and to the right of the smilies, and click it. Next, paste in your copied video and submit your post.

As many YouTube vids won't embed, I usually click on the Preview Post at the bottom of the page, and once the vid is displayed, click on it to see if it will embed. If it does, post it.

__________________

BG can confirm Borgo sent him the same PM a while back (or he'll lie, you'll lynch me, and when I flip innocent you'll know he's scum :biggrin:

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Chan - do not release the name yet, not with only 1.

Also, for anyone curious, here's the PM from Borgo that sent me to my UserCP:

BG can confirm Borgo sent him the same PM a while back (or he'll lie, you'll lynch me, and when I flip innocent you'll know he's scum :biggrin:

Typical Borgo.

500 words to say "cut and paste You Tube link after 'V=" part using the You Tube icon.

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BTW, you can drop shutout from my "presumed innocent" list. I was fairly certain he was the doctor based on his going hard after Woody despite the reveal - which is why I kept telling him to stop harping on that or it would get him killed :biggrin:

So much for that theory. I'm still cautiously optimistic about him, but don't know for sure

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Hats everywhere. What a mess.

He'll need that hat to cover the giant hole in his head.

There, in a pile of baseball caps lies shutout. Brains leaking onto the floor.

Store%20Photos%201.jpg

Shutout, a roleless innocent, has been killed.

Day 5 has begun. With 9 players remaining, it takes 5 to lynch.

Edited by EY
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1. Doggin94it

2. RaoulDuke

3. Irish Jet

4. War Ensemble

5. shutout - Killed Night 4

6. WoodyPaige - Lynched Day 3

7. Crusher

8. Jets Things

9. SMC - Killed Night 1

10. Vicious98x - Lynched Day 4

11. CTM

12. Norway - Lynched Day 2

13. JiF - Killed Night 3

14. JetsBabe - Lynched Day 1

15. Bleedin' Green

16. JVOR

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BTW, JVoR is doing his best to set me up as a lynch candidate. I have a feeling he's mafia, but lets wait til we hear from Chan.

Sure, that's why I would go so hard after Vicious in the beginning of the game when he had absolutely no suspicion him. Vicious screwed up with his indication of alignment on SMC and I called him out on it. I'm not telling him to, but CTM is always free to investigate me.

I'm fairly confident in my read right now. I've put forth my thoughts and people can choose how reasonable my accusations are. Doggin and Jets Thing are also free to vote for me if either of them think i'm mafia trying to frame them but i'm sure they know very well that it's yet another innocent dead body to attach to their names.

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yes!

I don't have a guilty though and I'd prefer to hold onto my list for now and will speak up if needed. With all thats going on, I don't have a good feel for who the scum are and I think I will be giving them an advantage if I reveal..

At the end of the day, I will most likely reveal my results..

Sound good?

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Sure, that's why I would go so hard after Vicious in the beginning of the game when he had absolutely no suspicion him. Vicious screwed up with his indication of alignment on SMC and I called him out on it. I'm not telling him to, but CTM is always free to investigate me.

I'm fairly confident in my read right now. I've put forth my thoughts and people can choose how reasonable my accusations are. Doggin and Jets Thing are also free to vote for me if either of them think i'm mafia trying to frame them but i'm sure they know very well that it's yet another innocent dead body to attach to their names.

Try to frame me all you want. I'm not mafia and I'm fairly certain you're not either.

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I'm sorry for being so blunt but there's something I don't get:

Can someone explain how Crusher did NOT get lynched last night after revealing multiple times he had maxed out on his ability to protect himself?

Is there a rule where you can reload after protectin someone else?

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Sure, that's why I would go so hard after Vicious in the beginning of the game when he had absolutely no suspicion him. Vicious screwed up with his indication of alignment on SMC and I called him out on it. I'm not telling him to, but CTM is always free to investigate me.

You did call Vic out on it, but one has to wonder at this point if this was all staged. Now you are pursuing doggin hard, I'm starting to wonder whether or not this is a padawan attempting to overtake the Jedi with a spectacular finish..

FOS JVOR for now

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I'm sorry for being so blunt but there's something I don't get:

Can someone explain how Crusher did NOT get lynched last night after revealing multiple times he had maxed out on his ability to protect himself?

Is there a rule where you can reload after protectin someone else?

that isn't the rule and please don't pursue it further..

crusher, don't answer...

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I'm sorry for being so blunt but there's something I don't get:

Can someone explain how Crusher did NOT get lynched last night after revealing multiple times he had maxed out on his ability to protect himself?

Is there a rule where you can reload after protectin someone else?

The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about Fight Club

Lenny: "it's a secret". Carl: "shut up"

Get the point?

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You did call Vic out on it, but one has to wonder at this point if this was all staged. Now you are pursuing doggin hard, I'm starting to wonder whether or not this is a padawan attempting to overtake the Jedi with a spectacular finish..

FOS JVOR for now

that's my feeling on this as well. I take it JVoR is NOT one of your confirmed innocents.

As such:

JVoR

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The first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about Fight Club

Lenny: "it's a secret". Carl: "shut up"

Get the point?

I'm not sure how many times we need to repeat this. I swear, its like people are trying to spell out every detail of this game for the mafia. As I said before, everyone just needs to drop it.

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