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Mafia Game 3 - Not All in the Family..


CTM

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A late roll reveal, when he has 7 votes or so, is far less believable than one when he has 1. You figured one of your buddies could just hammer him, and then, you'd all say, 'oops, but he was dangerous, so we're ok'.

Is that why you started talking about his role before he even revealed it?

Last game I thought early role reveals put the town in trouble? Maybe they still do? No?

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The whole "best case scenario" for Doggin can be applied to SMC. It doesn't provide anything more compelling for one side or the other.

Yes. Except for the detail that SMC role claimed and went after Doggin. This is not something he had to do.

Would one roleless townie be worth his life?

He's making a trade for Mafia. For the life of an innocent, it wouldn't make sense as he could have just gone after anyone, and killed Doggin at night.

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I disagree with that. I think we learn more if we kill Doggin than we do if we kill SMC. If we kill the guilty one, then we get a 2nd scum down. If we kill SMC and he is innocent, we get Doggin. If we kill Doggin and he is innocent, then we get both SMC and EY. And if SMC is innocent, then we've got a role that either soaks up a scum NK or we get someone with a role that we can use if things ever get desperate and we absolutely have to (say it comes down to 1 scum and 2 townies going into the night phase).

So Doggin dying and being innocent automatically makes SMC and EY guilty? Hell they could give you fifty reasons why it doesn't. EY probably already has it written ready to launch it, thats a bright boy right their. SMC is a lawyer in real life thats what he does. Finding out the truth to SMC's claim seems to be the only real fact chckable conclusion. Might be negative and backfire, but it's the only one that gives us a definate. In real life we could hold him upside from the top of the compound but thats not an option.

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Yes. Except for the detail that SMC role claimed and went after Doggin. This is not something he had to do.

Would one roleless townie be worth his life?

He's making a trade for Mafia. For the life of an innocent, it wouldn't make sense as he could have just gone after anyone, and killed Doggin at night.

It just makes him smart enough to role claim to have people buy into his story.

Just like Woody did which nearly got me killed.

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Crusher, one and only one question for you.

Would I play this game the way they are arguing I did?

If the answer is yes, vote for me.

If the answer is no, vote for SMC.

The answer is NO. But Crusher's first rule is believe no one and trust one person less.

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So Doggin dying and being innocent automatically makes SMC and EY guilty? Hell they could give you fifty reasons why it doesn't. EY probably already has it written ready to launch it, thats a bright boy right their. SMC is a lawyer in real life thats what he does. Finding out the truth to SMC's claim seems to be the only real fact chckable conclusion. Might be negative and backfire, but it's the only one that gives us a definate. In real life we could hold him upside from the top of the compound but thats not an option.

Are you kidding? Everyone in this game is eating up whatever EY is serving them.

The guy led a charge on our town DOCTOR and everyone was like "Whoops it's ok!"

I'm fine with killing doggin if those 2 are the next to go.

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Is that why you started talking about his role before he even revealed it?

Last game I thought early role reveals put the town in trouble? Maybe they still do? No?

When no one died, I was much more weary of SMC's story. And would have joined forces with Doggin... But a lot of things started to add up, even though we don't have the full piece of the puzzle. And that's why I'm taking his side.

I believe that the opening scene, about arrests, would have a cop arrest players. The bullets didn't make sense with this. I didn't consider a mafia roleblocker, but it makes sense. So SMC was outted in an effort to take Doggin down. When he's right. His sacrifice with be worth it.

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Because Crush Man, as I said, Doggin knows he will die, but if he dies tomorrow, it's because he killed SMC today. If he dies today, anyone could die tomorrow, possibly even his teammates.

Here's Doggin's best case scenario, and the one he's working towards:

Day 3: SMC Killed

Night 3: Innocent Killed

Day 4: Doggin Killed (his teammate will vote for him too)

Night 4: Innocent Killed

Day 5: This is the first day where it is possible for a teammate of Doggin's to die.

Here's Doggin's worst case scenario, the one he's trying to avoid:

Day 3: Doggin Killed

Night 3: SMC killed/SMC hits another of his teammates (more likely an innocent but could be a teammate)

Day 4: Anyone's guess

So Crush Man, as you can see, Doggin is working towards his death on Day 4, which prevents one of his teammates from getting hurt as early as Night 3. Which, is 4 game cycles faster than one of his teammates cold get killed in his worst case... which starts with SMC's death.

Check out Sharrows post above. It's true. Except that if SMC is lying, it doesn't mean I am too. But, I'd get killed anyway, as I'd have no real defense but to beg for mercy. Which honestly, you'd be foolish to give at that late point.

And no man. The argument was solid. It was crazy for Norway to suggest that, especially because he was the Dr.

Problem is for me. Doggin dies and is found innocent we lose a very good ally for the family and you and SMC could convince a trout to sunbath. The town mentality has proven itself very susceptible to the pied piper.

EY Im not the most gifted thinker in this game. But my instincts are pretty good and SMC was the first one that made me nervous. Sorta like the time a guy sat next to me on the bus when I was 9 and told me I smell nice.

I think we need to hear some more people chime in rather than the same guys over and over agin. JiF is going to talk once he gets home and gets a fresh shower and puts on something comfortable. Nice:hipp:

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The whole "best case scenario" for Doggin can be applied to SMC. It doesn't provide anything more compelling for one side or the other.

Exactly. Does it really matter why either of them are trying to get the other lynched? Either way, if we lynch the guilty one, it takes 1 lynch to resolve the situation, if we lynch the innocent one, it takes 2 lynches. Like I said, we should be making this decision based on which lynch gives us the most information/upside, and at this point, I still think that would be lynching Doggin.

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Are you kidding? Everyone in this game is eating up whatever EY is serving them.

The guy led a charge on our town DOCTOR and everyone was like "Whoops it's ok!"

I'm fine with killing doggin if those 2 are the next to go.

Dude, I basically said EY can't be trusted. Brush up on your Crusher. Im agreeing with you and your getting uppity with me. Hence my he already has an excuse written phase.

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Problem is for me. Doggin dies and is found innocent we lose a very good ally for the family and you and SMC could convince a trout to sunbath. The town mentality has proven itself very susceptible to the pied piper.

Doggin is capable of the same. In fact, it's what he's doing to you right now. He's even using your prior game together to buddy up with you in this one. That game has no relevance to his role in this one, bud. That's his strategy. As I said, 'I wouldn't play like that' is exactly the same as 'trust me'.

EY Im not the most gifted thinker in this game. But my instincts are pretty good and SMC was the first one that made me nervous. Sorta like the time a guy sat next to me on the bus when I was 9 and told me I smell nice.

I think we need to hear some more people chime in rather than the same guys over and over agin. JiF is going to talk once he gets home and gets a fresh shower and puts on something comfortable. Nice:hipp:

I respect your instincts, you know this. But here's the problem. Something is fishy about SMC, you're right. Neither of them are like us. Doggin is scum, and SMC is a vigilante. The only thing is, SMC counts as an innocent player, Doggin does not. It's imperative to take out those who do not. That's how we win.

And you're right, we need to hear from some others.

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Dude, I basically said EY can't be trusted. Brush up on your Crusher. Im agreeing with you and your getting uppity with me. Hence my he already has an excuse written phase.

Nah I'm not uppity about you bro. You're one of the few trying to at least consider the other possibility.

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Doggin is capable of the same. In fact, it's what he's doing to you right now. He's even using your prior game together to buddy up with you in this one. That game has no relevance to his role in this one, bud. That's his strategy. As I said, 'I wouldn't play like that' is exactly the same as 'trust me'.

I respect your instincts, you know this. But here's the problem. Something is fishy about SMC, you're right. Neither of them are like us. Doggin is scum, and SMC is a vigilante. The only thing is, SMC counts as an innocent player, Doggin does not. It's imperative to take out those who do not. That's how we win.

And you're right, we need to hear from some others.

Dude your fat too? Never would imagine that.

I do think we need to here some other people talk before we lynch. Most of the dialogue today is from the same few.

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Simply if SMC gets lynched we could check out his story and see if his role reveal is actual. The would be an absolute truth. Of course it would suck to lose the vigilante, but it would add some solid info to the game and damn some of his accuseres.

Doggin's death would only serve us if he was actually dirty. If he turns out to be just another loyal member of the family, we got nothing excewpt another dead family members. The rest of this back and forth who shield who stuff is a little to confusing. Though I will say that Vic has seemed a little bit more hopnest than most of the other few that are leading this game.

All this blocking and stuff is something I haven't encountered in a game yet. Sorta pissing me off because it's creating a little of crap thats easily mani[ulated and clouds the water.

You are bringing up a lot of good points. Like I said I am kind of finding both doggin and smc suspicious at this point. Ey has a silver tongue and I am troubled by the fact that he lead the lynch against Norway and is now going after doggin. I can see the logic you are talking about with smc and wouldn"t be opposed to voting that way. It does tell us a lot about who is lying right now. I am just conflicted because doggin's behavior has struck me as odd this entire game.

I think we need people to come up with their own decisions and not just get swayed.

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So Doggin dying and being innocent automatically makes SMC and EY guilty? Hell they could give you fifty reasons why it doesn't. EY probably already has it written ready to launch it, thats a bright boy right their. SMC is a lawyer in real life thats what he does. Finding out the truth to SMC's claim seems to be the only real fact chckable conclusion. Might be negative and backfire, but it's the only one that gives us a definate. In real life we could hold him upside from the top of the compound but thats not an option.

Haha, I'm scared of the same thing. The fact that EY wants us to vote Doggin, makes me hesitant to vote Doggin.

But for me it all comes back to the fact that no one died last night. The best (although still unsatisfactory) explanation, in my mind, is that SMC is telling the truth and that he killed Bleedin' Night 1 (especially because Bleedin' died of a bullet).

Another thing that troubles me is Vicious's certainty statements. What does he stand to gain from defending Doggin so fiercely?

And I also find SMC's attempt to show us his PM's so ridiculous, I don't know what to make of it. He tried to give us a ****ing link. I just don't know.

At any rate, the lack of night kills is really what does it for me right now. I would love to hear more from AVM, JiF, Jets Things, Sharrow, Woody (where is he?), and Jets Babe (she hasn't said much at all).

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Haha, I'm scared of the same thing. The fact that EY wants us to vote Doggin, makes me hesitant to vote Doggin.

But for me it all comes back to the fact that no one died last night. The best (although still unsatisfactory) explanation, in my mind, is that SMC is telling the truth and that he killed Bleedin' Night 1 (especially because Bleedin' died of a bullet).

Another thing that troubles me is Vicious's certainty statements. What does he stand to gain from defending Doggin so fiercely?

And I also find SMC's attempt to show us his PM's so ridiculous, I don't know what to make of it. He tried to give us a ****ing link. I just don't know.

At any rate, the lack of night kills is really what does it for me right now. I would love to hear more from AVM, JiF, Jets Things, Sharrow, Woody (where is he?), and Jets Babe (she hasn't said much at all).

Going out to dinner in a few, but I'll put in some thoughts.

SMC's reveal came waaaay too soon. Why bother revealing with 1 or 2 votes on you? Makes no sense.

Doggin seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth and his reluctance to give up on the "Petrelli" thing is a bit strange.

Between these two going back and forth ALL DAY and a ton of people without so much as checking in, I'd like to get input from EVERYONE before making a move towards SMC or Doggin.

And something I've observed - vicious has a different tone this game than he's had the previous two. Don't know what to make of it and don't know if anyone else has noticed, but he's been a red flag for me since day 1, especially with his "attitude" towards EY.

I'm going to check back in after dinner (Lent be damned - I'm getting a friggin steak tonight).

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Another thing that troubles me is Vicious's certainty statements. What does he stand to gain from defending Doggin so fiercely?

More than anything Vic is against the town getting taken for a ride. Or he may be doing that as part of something else. But, so far Vic's questions are similar to mine.

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Jeez. That was ridiculous, been reading forever. A lot of my questions have been answered through good discussion. I dont really know what to do, but this is the way I am feeling...

...we take down Doggin. Which I am bothered by, because SMC forced him into this position. However, it has to be done. Because if he is scum we score!!! And if he is not, then we know SMC was lying. SMC survives another night we kill him immediately. We lose a strong player in Doggin, but the mafia losses a strong player in SMC.

I have been Mafia with SMC before, this is not how he plays, there is something going on and I want to believe him. I just cant figure it out. It doesnt make a lot of sense because there was no heat on him, maybe he just jizzed his pants when he found out Doggin was guilty in the night phase. I am not convinced of his reveal, but I would like to see what happens with Doggin. That doesnt mean I think SMC is innocent.

Vote: Doggin

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This bothered me in SMC's role reveal:

You mean "commit suicide" is more like it.

Okay, here's the deal.

I'm the Family Vigilante. My name is Richi Gnocchi and Loyal Mario was like a brother to me. I was antsy for revenge and ready to whack those rat bastards that turned him in.

When the game started I took the role a little too literally and started bandwagonning. When I was called on it I admitted it and decided to have a little fun with it UNTIL, Irish incriminated himself. I thought this was a perfect opportunity to lay a Rat-trap since I had garnered suspicion. That's why I did that second to last jump (before I finally voted for Irish).

The thing is, Irish was so clearly a Rat that he should have been the choice to whack. Anyone voting for me would either be a Rat trying to jump on or create a suspicion bandwagon against me. In other words, when faced with the choice of voting for the obviously guilty Irish or me, to vote for me would be a tell. Doggin fit perfectly into that. I wanted to build up the suspect list.

The thing is, last night I put in a whack on Doggin. I'm confident he's a Rat. But it was somehow blocked. Doggin should be dead because I NK'd him. But he's not.

Either someone blocked the kill or CTM screwed me.

There's no reason for SMC to bandwagon because of the personality of his character. The original assumption was that he had some sort of posting requirement/restriction which doesn't seem to be the case. Instead, he chose to be reckless to begin the game. Is that what a smart player does?

Gotta admit, it smells funny.

I have to go back over Doggin's posts. I was highly suspicious of him by the time we started day two. I want to reread some of his comments. They're still not adding up for me.

At first blush, I think we get a couple answers with either of these guys whacked. I'm afraid that if SMC shows up as anything but scum that Doggin might get a free pass, though. Whereas the other way around, I think SMC will die before the end of the day phase day four no matter what happens with Doggin.

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Going out to dinner in a few, but I'll put in some thoughts.

SMC's reveal came waaaay too soon. Why bother revealing with 1 or 2 votes on you? Makes no sense.

Doggin seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth and his reluctance to give up on the "Petrelli" thing is a bit strange.

Between these two going back and forth ALL DAY and a ton of people without so much as checking in, I'd like to get input from EVERYONE before making a move towards SMC or Doggin.

And something I've observed - vicious has a different tone this game than he's had the previous two. Don't know what to make of it and don't know if anyone else has noticed, but he's been a red flag for me since day 1, especially with his "attitude" towards EY.

I'm going to check back in after dinner (Lent be damned - I'm getting a friggin steak tonight).

JT- My tone has changed cause I'm tired of getting pushed around and screwing up. I gotta go with my gut, every other game I over thought EVERYTHING. Tried to play it cool. That's not me. I'm following my gut which happens to be behind Doggin. As someone pointed it the whole "bandwagon" jumpiness and all of a sudden a vigilante "reveal" stinks to me.

Throw in the fact our doctor is down and the man that drew up that whole case is SMC's #1 defender. It is what it is. If I have to cast the kill vote on Doggin I will.

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And I also find SMC's attempt to show us his PM's so ridiculous, I don't know what to make of it. He tried to give us a ****ing link. I just don't know.

Sorry about that. I thought you could see the page. I instead did a screen shot (which I cropped). Here it is. This is after Doggin wasn't NK and I wanted to confirm that CTM received my NK. He responded that he did receive it but it wasn't successful.

If anyone still doesn't believe me now they are either a Rat or ... you know.

Mafia002.jpg

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Sorry about that. I thought you could see the page. I instead did a screen shot (which I cropped). Here it is. This is after Doggin wasn't NK and I wanted to confirm that CTM received my NK. He responded that he did receive it but it wasn't successful.

If anyone still doesn't believe me now they are either a Rat or ... you know.

Mafia002.jpg

I believe this, but is this within the rules of the game?

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I believe this, but is this within the rules of the game?

Yes. The Rules specifically prohibit us from quoting what CTM sends us by PM. I purposely did not screencap or quote anything CTM sent me.

Instead, which is allowed, I screencapped only what I sent him.

Just so you know. EY is right. I revealed not to save myself, but to have Doggin whacked and then have a shot at NK a Rat tonight.

I think Doggin is a Rat with Roleblocking powers.

What makes me even more certain is how hard Doggin is going after me. Seriously? Peter Petrolli? It's as if Doggin is on a crusade. He has setforth no evidence that I am scum. All he has done is call me a liar.

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Just to add, Doggin talks about "the numbers" but the Rats are at a statistical disadvantage. They were no more than 5 rats (based on an 18 player game), with 1 dead.

There's 15 players total with no more than 4 Rats now (11 Family members). We whack a Rat, and they're down to 3. If I'm successful on an NK tonight, then they're down to 2.

So with 11 family members and 2 mafia, even if they NK a Family member, there will still be a 10-2 Family advantage.

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Legal or illegal pictures aside, I was already leaning towards Doggin and no one has convinced me to change my opinion yet. I made my reasons known earlier; I still think that lynching him will give us more info than lynching SMC. That said, I'm going to put my vote in tonight because I don't expect that I'm going to be able to be here all day and night tomorrow.

If either Doggin or SMC's vote gets high enough to drop the hammer, nobody should even think about doing it unless every single player that's left has posted their thoughts on this situation. There are too many people who haven't really said a peep about it yet.

Also, after this all gets settled, I think that we still need to go back and take a long look at the Norway vote. SMC's reveal, whether it's fake or not, hasn't given us a chance to do that yet.

vote: Doggin

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Sorry about that. I thought you could see the page. I instead did a screen shot (which I cropped). Here it is. This is after Doggin wasn't NK and I wanted to confirm that CTM received my NK. He responded that he did receive it but it wasn't successful.

If anyone still doesn't believe me now they are either a Rat or ... you know.

Not sure if this is legal or ethical. Hmmm. If CTM says it IS legit, well then it's pretty damning to Doggin. The nail in the coffin, as it were. That said, could you possibly post the uncropped screen shot? A lot hangs on this upcoming vote, so any unedited evidence you could show us would only bolster your argument.

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Recheck posts:

1346

1360

1372

1377

And let me know your thoughts.

I've done this, and quoted them below. Having a chance to back over them more slowly, I've decided that you're putting words in Doggin's mouth. And that's not the mindset I brought to this exercise.

post #1346, which gets quoted in the next two:

And the mafia were dumb enough to go after you knowing you had a high likelihood of being protected . . . why, exactly?

And the whole theory that the mafia knew SMC had a role, so they role blocked him instead of killing is just nuts.

If that's the reason for no-kill, the mafia could have killed SMC. Then, they'd have him outr of the way and be free to kill tomorrow night and every night thereafter.

The theory that I'm a mafia roleblocker and we roleblocked SMC last night requires that I'm dumb enough to choose a plan that will eliminate "our" ability to NK every night instead of just killing SMC (who "we" would have known couldn't be doctor protected).

Do you really think I'm that stupid? Really?

post #1360:

To take a chance. It already worked once in a game on this board.

unless they were setting him up as a potential scum day kill target. How's that for nuts?

unless you knew that he'd target you, and you'd be hit, so you needed to prevent that from happening. So, you got him blocked, and saved yourself in the processes, proceeding to try to kill him during the day.

Nope. I think you did what's bolded above. To protect yourself from SMC, who, if you killed him, would still get the hit on you too.

All breaks are quoting Doggin's top post, the bold is EY's. He introduces the idea that Doggin employed a block to save himself.

post #1372 quotes post #1346 again after "based on this":

Based on this:

vote Doggin94it

Doggin knows damn well that if a serial killer were to attack him, and he attacked the serial killer back, they would BOTH be dead. In this case, he's saying that killing SMC last night would protect him. He knows it, so I think he's lying. He says lynch all liars.

The bold here is mine. Nowhere in that post does Doggin suggest that killing SMC would've protected him, but EY brought the idea of Doggin looking to save himself in post #1360.

post #1377, also quoting Doggin's top post:

As I said before, yes.

You should really check the rules:

Actions: All Day and Night actions will occur instantly, unless otherwise specified. This means that two people night-killing each other will both die (unless one is saved somehow) .

The only why to keep you alive was not to kill me, it was to block me because if I sent in the NK for you, you'd be dead even it you kill me.

Again, Doggin never suggested that he was looking to save himself. Below, Doggin makes a pretty compelling case as to why he'd've hit SMC, even at the risk of his own life - and really it's no guarantee that SMC would've been out to kill him. He'd be passing on a kill based on a hunch. The more I think about it, the less I think that's the smart play.

Considering I never said that, it's hard to know how he'd answer.

If SMC is not scum, and I lead this lynch, I'm dead. That's been clear forever. So giving up a NK in the hope that I can lynch SMC today (and get lynched tomorrow) makes no sense.

Think about it:

roleblock, no NK scenario:

Last night, No kill

Today - Me or SMC dies

Tonight - kill

Tomorrow - I die if I was still alive

End result: if SMC is lynched today: 2 dead innocents (today, tonight), 1 dead mafia (me, tomorrow). if I'm lynched today: 1/2 dead innocent (tonight's kill, probably whoever dies tomorrow)

NK, no roleblock:

Last night - I die, SMC dies

Today: Lynch of random player, likely innocent

Tonight: NK

Tomorrow: Lynch of random player, likely innocent

Liklely end result: 4 dead innocents, 1 dead mafia

Why would I give up the NK to stay alive for one more phase. It is the stupidest possible move I could make. Almost as stupid as aiming at Yellin night 1 would have been

Which is what I've been saying all along - if those are my options, I'd have killed SMC and accepted the chance that SMC kills me at the same time (remember, I can't know what SMC would have done) rather than almost guaranteed to be worse results of a roleblock/no kill.

Simply put, if you think I'm mafia who did this, you think I'm the stupidest mafioso ever.

SMC doesn't even argue that - he just says "YES" when I ask if you think I'd be that stupid.

Hey, crusher, you've been mafia teammates with me before. Am I that stupid? Or is SMC lying scum?

I'm not sure about the likely random lynchings, but otherwise it is a pretty strong case to kill SMC rather than to block a potential action he might have (remember, his reveal came after the night - nothing was certain).

I have to go over some other things that made me suspicious of Doggin in the first place, but this set of posts that EY points to are not incriminating - of Doggin, anyway.

Unfortunately, that leaves yesterday's death and arrest free evening a mystery. I'd like to hear some more plausible theories on that.

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Just to add, Doggin talks about "the numbers" but the Rats are at a statistical disadvantage. They were no more than 5 rats (based on an 18 player game), with 1 dead.

There's 15 players total with no more than 4 Rats now (11 Family members). We whack a Rat, and they're down to 3. If I'm successful on an NK tonight, then they're down to 2.

So with 11 family members and 2 mafia, even if they NK a Family member, there will still be a 10-2 Family advantage.

I think Doggin's a little presumptuous by suggesting that the next two lynches would be likely innocents, but you're way overboard when you start talking numbers with a NK by you that cuts them down to two! By your own admission, you've had one kill and it was an innocent.

If Doggin were to be lynched today, who's next on your personal hit list?

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Posts #919 and 920, before Bleedin' died in the night:

Yellin is innocent and needs doctor protection.

SMC is ignoring questions and accusing me of deflecting.

People are operating on the assumption that the mafia would have avoided voting for their teammate. To me, that's the exact wrong assumption, unless nobody on the mafia had any experience being mafia. The first commandment of being mafia is avoid any linkage to teammates - that means that when their cover's been blown, you vote for them, not try to save them.

That's why Bleedin' voted for Irish.

Strong case that SMC did whack Bleedin', believing he was scum right there.

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