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Mafia Game 3 - Not All in the Family..


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3 people mentioned him now.

Sharrow, you started the discussion... have you come up with anything more?

Woody? JiF? What else have you got on him?

Also, JiF, what about Crusher and JetsBabe?

No, but the end of the Norway vote still doesn't make sense to me. I can understand ending the Irish vote quickly because he pretty much was dead to rights and then came back and said "I'll be back in about 14 hours, don't lynch me", which was ridiculous. But I can't understand ending the Norway vote so quickly. He wasn't even given enough time to make a single post from the time his name was brought up to when he was lynched. I'm very suspicious of AVM and Slats (who voted for Norway after the vote was finalized) because of that.

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Another question:

When Irish died, CTM said he was a member of the 51st precinct.

Why is Jets Things being held at the 22nd precinct?

Does CTM pick a new number each time, or is there something to this?

Good catch. I'm not sure yet. Random is unlikely though.

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I voted Norway for the simple reason I thought his comment about protecting Doggin was kinda odd. Especially after EY just railroaded a rat for the town, and most of us thought he would be the target.

I think looking at who voted for irish is as valuable as who didn't because scum don't protect thier own. If one of them is going down they commonly will vote for them to distance themselvfes.

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I voted Norway for the simple reason I thought his comment about protecting Doggin was kinda odd. Especially after EY just railroaded a rat for the town, and most of us thought he would be the target.

I think looking at who voted for irish is as valuable as who didn't because scum don't protect thier own. If one of them is going down they commonly will vote for them to distance themselvfes.

I tend to agree. What do you think of the other names JiF brought up? Jets Babe and AVM?

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Dan, good work on the lists. What conclusions do you draw from them?

Obviously I know you're interested in guys who agreed on Norway before I had the chance to post my analysis.

Thanks. My problem is there are too many people who look suspicious to me right now. But if we're looking solely at the way people voted on Irish & Norway, I've narrowed it down to my top 7 suspects (in order): AVM, EY, Woody, JMJ, Vicious, JVoR, and Crusher.

I'm going to go back and look at some of their posts, and try to come up with more solid opinions on them.

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I tend to agree. What do you think of the other names JiF brought up? Jets Babe and AVM?

Shutout was on my early list, but that could just be due to his extreme inactivity (and his bowing out of the game would seem to be an alibi). I'm treading lightly around Jets Babe because in the first two games she read extremely scummy and was voted off quickly both times - and both times she was innocent.

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Looks like a lot of people feel the same as I do. The late Irish vote (it was obvious he was going down) and the late Norway vote and his subsequent post after his vote are enough for me right now. We'll see what he has to say.

Vote: AVM

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Shutout was on my early list, but that could just be due to his extreme inactivity (and his bowing out of the game would seem to be an alibi). I'm treading lightly around Jets Babe because in the first two games she read extremely scummy and was voted off quickly both times - and both times she was innocent.

I know, I'm having the same dilemma there. So far, Jets Babe has made a few seemingly contradictory/illogical remarks, but I'm worried the same thing will happen. I think it's very hard to read the Shutout/JB situation at the moment.

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I tend to agree. What do you think of the other names JiF brought up? Jets Babe and AVM?

\

Jetsbabe took over for shut out and she really hasn't put too much into the game yet. She has the built in excuse of having to catch up, but it's been a bit and she seems to be very tentative compared to her usual flamboyant boisterous style. She is one of those players that seems scum when she's not.

AVM he has a couple of very interestingly timed votes that scream he knows something, but Im not sure it's necessairly something bad. Or anti family in this case.

Woody has been all over the place and just lurking without saying much.

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3 people mentioned him now.

Sharrow, you started the discussion... have you come up with anything more?

Woody? JiF? What else have you got on him?

Also, JiF, what about Crusher and JetsBabe?

I threw those names out there because they have been the 3 that I was most curious about outside of the SMC/Doggin situatinon.

I have a case for both AVM and Crusher. Give me a sec, and I will post those. JB is purely on the inactivity tip...I want to hear what JB has to say.

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Shutout was on my early list, but that could just be due to his extreme inactivity (and his bowing out of the game would seem to be an alibi). I'm treading lightly around Jets Babe because in the first two games she read extremely scummy and was voted off quickly both times - and both times she was innocent.

Shes' just aggressive... which is a good thing in some things \:D/

But she has been relatively passive this game. As of right now AVM sticks out to me.

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I threw those names out there because they have been the 3 that I was most curious about outside of the SMC/Doggin situatinon.

I have a case for both AVM and Crusher. Give me a sec, and I will post those. JB is purely on the inactivity tip...I want to hear what JB has to say.

Mine better start with the word luscious or you may be calling 1-800-flowers pretty soon.

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\

Jetsbabe took over for shut out and she really hasn't put too much into the game yet. She has the built in excuse of having to catch up, but it's been a bit and she seems to be very tentative compared to her usual flamboyant boisterous style. She is one of those players that seems scum when she's not.

AVM he has a couple of very interestingly timed votes that scream he knows something, but Im not sure it's necessairly something bad. Or anti family in this case.

Woody has been all over the place and just lurking without saying much.

Those are the 3 That have stood out to me right now as well. I said it earlier this game that woody can't keep disappearing and yet he has. I mean he could be mafia or just dead weight. Either way he needs to contribute more.

Avm had a lot of suspicious activity at the norway vote. I messed up too but he was the one that didn't give a chance for Norway to reveal.

Jb I get scumdar readings everytime she plays. I want her to post more she is playing uncharacteristically quiet

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Fair enough. However if you check my post times, with the exception of Tuesday really (which I said the night before would be my most active day), Im not usually active til late. I had been gone several hours on Thursday, and when I came back I followed your logic (as I did the first time, to our benefit), voting for Norway.

I've already said I'd accept the responsibility along with you for the Norway kill, since I put the killing blow on him.

This is how has AVM justified his Norway vote before. What do people think?

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Thoughts on AVM...

Doggin kept saying that 'Mafia never defends mafia'. And in part that's true. But in part it's not. At some point, mafia will give up on mafia, and cast the votes to distance, but it's rare that they jump on the train early. Jumping on the train early causes a train to form. You don't want that. AVM didn't jump early, but only when it seemed like hope was lost.

Sharrow brings up a good point. He put the hammer vote on Norway, admittedly, we all thought he was guilty, but what's telling is that not long after he killed Norway, he said 'too fast'. That's a bit of a contradiction.

He also did not vote against Doggin, or at all in that case. He didn't want to vote SMC because he knew how that would turn out, but he didn't want to off another member of his team this early?

Also, after not participating in the Doggin debate, as soon as its mentioned that he voted late twice, he returns.

On Jets Babe...

She was super defensive when SMC mentioned the post count, but she made a good point and she is new. She FOS'd him for it. But as was pointed out, she does get super defensive on either side of the isle when pressed, so I don't know how to react. However, she's still not participating much.

On Crusher...

Don't really have much. Voted against SMC and mentioned some kind of heirarchy, but it doesn't seem like much.

On Vicious...

There's a lot of stuff there, but I'm really leaning towards thinking he's just got a different opinion than me for now. He was too firery against me yesterday that it would be obvious. I'll go back for further analysis later if necessary.

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This is my case for AVM,

Here is his reaction to Norway's death...

Wow...

Randomly asking for someone else's opinion before even giving one himself...weird.

What do you think Dan?

A little WIFOM...

Well in the end, I cast the killing blow so if someone wants to point blame it can be to me (sorry, Norway).

The problem is this death doesn't even really lead us anywhere...hopefully no one else important dies tonight.

And another...

Uh oh...with no doc man, you're dead next night phase now, unless whatever stopped them last night stops them again.

And another...

That is, of course, if this is a true reveal

Here he is again, asking for the town's opinion but not providing one of his own...

BTW--I have a 4 hour road trip ahead to a conference this weekend (I'll still be around plenty, just not until I get there).

I'll be back later this evening...but some things seem to be shaping up, i think. I'd really like to see some more theories on how no one died last night

This post was just confusing...

He uses some of his similar tactics, making the town answer his questions. Then he plays what could be dumb, granted he is a newbie, but it a nice show of innocence.

The last line here is just weird.

So are we positive Norway protected whoever scum targeted night one?

How often does the mafia chose not to NK?

I'm not sure of your innocence or not, but I do think I buy you're not a roleblocker. Though I'm honestly still confused as to whether or not all roles or just one is blocked -- as both were explained

Here we go with a new trend...I have ideas, I am telling you I have ideas, but I never share them...

Im honestly completely and totally lost as to where to vote. The cases for Doggin and SMC are both strong...but I have a suspicion of my own, and quite honestly I'm reluctant to jump on another bandwagon after how badly it cost us last time.

Most importantly...I dont know if theres a single person I trust at the moment

Notice how he admits to being a band wagoner because but he wont vote because he has suspicion of his own.

Oh yeah, and he doesnt trust anyone. :rolleyes:

I'm not done...

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Thoughts on AVM...

Doggin kept saying that 'Mafia never defends mafia'. And in part that's true. But in part it's not. At some point, mafia will give up on mafia, and cast the votes to distance, but it's rare that they jump on the train early. Jumping on the train early causes a train to form. You don't want that. AVM didn't jump early, but only when it seemed like hope was lost.

Sharrow brings up a good point. He put the hammer vote on Norway, admittedly, we all thought he was guilty, but what's telling is that not long after he killed Norway, he said 'too fast'. That's a bit of a contradiction.

He also did not vote against Doggin, or at all in that case. He didn't want to vote SMC because he knew how that would turn out, but he didn't want to off another member of his team this early?

Also, after not participating in the Doggin debate, as soon as its mentioned that he voted late twice, he returns.

On Jets Babe...

She was super defensive when SMC mentioned the post count, but she made a good point and she is new. She FOS'd him for it. But as was pointed out, she does get super defensive on either side of the isle when pressed, so I don't know how to react. However, she's still not participating much.

On Crusher...

Don't really have much. Voted against SMC and mentioned some kind of heirarchy, but it doesn't seem like much.

On Vicious...

There's a lot of stuff there, but I'm really leaning towards thinking he's just got a different opinion than me for now. He was too firery against me yesterday that it would be obvious. I'll go back for further analysis later if necessary.

I'm hispanic. Fiery is my nature :P

As for your other analysis I'm agreeing... JB has given us limited posts to work with but seems to be defensive quickly.

JiF just put up a GREAT post on how AVM is playing very.... disconnected. Tries to seem like he's involved but not fully invested in the investigations/conversations. You and I self butted heads over different issues... but the point is we were both VERY involved.

Large games can make it easy for someone to play ala BG when he's scum. That's kinda what AVM is doing IMO.

I feel comfortable with this:

Vote: AVM

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From where I left off...

Remember, he had suspicion of his own, this will become a trend, but he didnt post his suspicion, instead he got into a sweet little exchange with JMJ

Nice--grats dude!

LOL, I'm pretty sure it's a right of passage that I'll enjoy one day myself, no worries.

BTW--I'll check in tom. morning before I head to the conference, Im getting some sleep now.

**In a mafia related note...any chance someone could throw a post count for everyone so far? (and I say this knowing I'll be in the bottom half)

Notice how he has the town doing work for him again with another WIFOM comment.

Fair enough. However if you check my post times, with the exception of Tuesday really (which I said the night before would be my most active day), Im not usually active til late. I had been gone several hours on Thursday, and when I came back I followed your logic (as I did the first time, to our benefit), voting for Norway.

I've already said I'd accept the responsibility along with you for the Norway kill, since I put the killing blow on him.

Once again, this was pure bandwagoning, somethnig he has done all game admittly. And lets not forget his "too fast" comment after dropping the hammer on Norway.

And since last time not waiting for a response didn't help--I'm going along with the plan of not voting til I hear from Doggin'.

Hesitant to vote his scum brother on the post above and below untill he here's him speak.

Agreed, feel the same.

The post above was at 10pm. Doggin posted at 8am the next morning (sunday) AVM doesnt get a chance to vote while all the drama happened, convienently and this is what he contributes when he gets back...

Ok...time to move on and try to piece this back together. Lets hope everyone survives the night again.

What does this provide, where is he thoughts on Doggin's last rebutal?

I've gtg for about 30 minutes...but I've got some ideas, which mostly I'm thinking I should save til morning?

Finally, his new favorite tactic. I have ideas, but I am not sharing...

Vote: AVM

Very scummy. How many times are you going to say that you have idea's but you are not going to share them with the town?

I am going to save my case on Crusher, my suspicion of him is based on his love for a seemingly scummy Doggin.

I want to hear what AVM says first.

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One thing I'm noticing from JiF's post about AVM is that AVM has said, multiple times, that he hopes everyone survives the night.

Is he trying to make us feel happy/comfortable about the lack of night kills? Or is he simply a newbie who thinks we happened to just get lucky?

I've said it many times before, and I will continue to harp on it until we get some answers, but something shady must have been going on at night for no one to get night killed.

And I think that was proven this past night phase, where the scum were somehow able to target our finder. I can't think of how Jets Things might have given away who he was, unless the scum picked up on something no one else did. (To be honest, I thought Vicious was our cop when he was fighting so strongly against SMC and said he was 100% sure that SMC was scum.)

Forgive me if the following question seems ludicrous, but since I'm not very knowledgeable about all the different possible roles and game setups ... is it possible for scum to do some sort of trade, where instead of night killing they get to find out who the roled townies are? (No NK Night 1 = lynch doctor the next day. No NK Night 2 = almost lynch possible vigilante the next day. NK Night 3 = cop.)

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One thing I'm noticing from JiF's post about AVM is that AVM has said, multiple times, that he hopes everyone survives the night.

Is he trying to make us feel happy/comfortable about the lack of night kills? Or is he simply a newbie who thinks we happened to just get lucky?

I've said it many times before, and I will continue to harp on it until we get some answers, but something shady must have been going on at night for no one to get night killed.

And I think that was proven this past night phase, where the scum were somehow able to target our finder. I can't think of how Jets Things might have given away who he was, unless the scum picked up on something no one else did. (To be honest, I thought Vicious was our cop when he was fighting so strongly against SMC and said he was 100% sure that SMC was scum.)

Forgive me if the following question seems ludicrous, but since I'm not very knowledgeable about all the different possible roles and game setups ... is it possible for scum to do some sort of trade, where instead of night killing they get to find out who the roled townies are? (No NK Night 1 = lynch doctor the next day. No NK Night 2 = almost lynch possible vigilante the next day. NK Night 3 = cop.)

Hmmm, on further thought, by this pattern it would've made more sense for them to not NK anyone last night and then lead an attack against Jets Things during the day phase.

Back to square one ...

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One thing I'm noticing from JiF's post about AVM is that AVM has said, multiple times, that he hopes everyone survives the night.

Is he trying to make us feel happy/comfortable about the lack of night kills? Or is he simply a newbie who thinks we happened to just get lucky?

I've said it many times before, and I will continue to harp on it until we get some answers, but something shady must have been going on at night for no one to get night killed.

And I think that was proven this past night phase, where the scum were somehow able to target our finder. I can't think of how Jets Things might have given away who he was, unless the scum picked up on something no one else did. (To be honest, I thought Vicious was our cop when he was fighting so strongly against SMC and said he was 100% sure that SMC was scum.)

Forgive me if the following question seems ludicrous, but since I'm not very knowledgeable about all the different possible roles and game setups ... is it possible for scum to do some sort of trade, where instead of night killing they get to find out who the roled townies are? (No NK Night 1 = lynch doctor the next day. No NK Night 2 = almost lynch possible vigilante the next day. NK Night 3 = cop.)

I like that you're thinking... but something like you suggested has never happened before, and also would be completely unfair. They would do this every single time and the roles would be nearly useless.

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I like that you're thinking... but something like you suggested has never happened before, and also would be completely unfair. They would do this every single time and the roles would be nearly useless.

I guess that makes sense. Although it's also unfair for them to simply have Lady Fortune on their side, telling them who's our cop.

Since you've played this game a lot, can you think of anything that has happened in past games that might explain the lack of NKs and targeting of our cop?

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From where I left off...

Remember, he had suspicion of his own, this will become a trend, but he didnt post his suspicion, instead he got into a sweet little exchange with JMJ

Notice how he has the town doing work for him again with another WIFOM comment.

Once again, this was pure bandwagoning, somethnig he has done all game admittly. And lets not forget his "too fast" comment after dropping the hammer on Norway.

Hesitant to vote his scum brother on the post above and below untill he here's him speak.

The post above was at 10pm. Doggin posted at 8am the next morning (sunday) AVM doesnt get a chance to vote while all the drama happened, convienently and this is what he contributes when he gets back...

What does this provide, where is he thoughts on Doggin's last rebutal?

Finally, his new favorite tactic. I have ideas, but I am not sharing...

Vote: AVM

Very scummy. How many times are you going to say that you have idea's but you are not going to share them with the town?

I am going to save my case on Crusher, my suspicion of him is based on his love for a seemingly scummy Doggin.

I want to hear what AVM says first.

Good points JiF.

Vote:AVM. I am willing to change this if he starts sharing his brilliant ideas with us.

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Nice research JiF. I noticed a few of the things you've mentioned. Combined with Sharrow's original post, my research, and Dan X's top suspicion... It's enough to get my vote for now.

Lets hear these "new ideas".

Vote: AVM

I said that was only based on the Irish/Norway voting patterns ... you're still my actual top suspect. ;)

And I agree with JiF. Even though he makes good points and AVM's posts don't add up, we already have 5 votes now, so I think it's best to wait for AVM.

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I guess that makes sense. Although it's also unfair for them to simply have Lady Fortune on their side, telling them who's our cop.

Since you've played this game a lot, can you think of anything that has happened in past games that might explain the lack of NKs and targeting of our cop?

Night 1 I think I was the target.

Night 2 I don't know? There's been talk of a roleblocker on scum side, could there be one on the towns side?

Night 3 Jets Things was arrested.

I hate to say it, but I have to think 'dumb luck' for now. I've never seen anything where scum could find players, they already have a great ability... NK.

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