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Rookie QB Stats Last 16 Years: Sanchez can succeed


rick34125

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For the sake of a little perspective on the likely success of our rookie starting QB (if he starts), I collected these stats from NFL.com and put them side by side.

The first thing that jumps out is that Flacco and Ryan were real anomolies in how well they performed. Roethlisberger being another exception. Also, if you go down the list not many of these guys had successful NFL careers.

What really puts things into perspective are the stats on defense & rushing. Note that of the 26 rookie QB's in the last 16 years 5 of them took their teams to the post season.

What's interesting is that without exception each of those 5 rookie QB's had teams with good defenses and running games and they were the only ones of the 26 who did. Which means a top defense and running game combined is a strong indicator for making the post season despite the QB (case in point would be Kyle Boller and Kyle Orton).

I'm actually very encouraged now that I've looked this up that if we can produce a strong running game and top defense (and there is every reason to believe we can) we can make the post season with Sanchez. The stats speak for themselves smile.gif.

BTW, another way of looking at this is that of the last 10 rookie QB's who started, half of them have made the post season. Pretty cool.

So as much as I'll plan for the worst, I'm now pretty hopeful for a good season even if the rookie starts.

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Interesting, but not surprising. TBH, all I'm hoping for this year is for us to try to model the Ravens of last year; powerful running game and very powerful defense, which, with Ryan at the head seems entirely possible. They didn't have too strong of a receiving core, albeit Mason and were a better tandem than we have, but I expect someone to come on stronger than we expect.

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and were a better tandem than we have, but I expect someone to come on stronger than we expect.

I don't agree with this. McGahee is fighting injuries and has never been great to begin with. Ray rice was a rookie and suprised everyone, but so has Leon. And McClain is a FB.

Jones, Washington, Greene>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>McGahee, Rice, McClain

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I don't agree with this. McGahee is fighting injuries and has never been great to begin with. Ray rice was a rookie and suprised everyone, but so has Leon. And McClain is a FB.

Jones, Washington, Greene>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>McGahee, Rice, McClain

I think he was talking about Mason and Clayton.

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You might want to check your data.....Off the top of my head you are missing McNabb and Vick...there might be others as well.

Neither McNabb nor Vick started a game until November of their rookie seasons.

As a rookie in 2001, Vick started one game in November (and they waited until the Ryan Leaf Cowboys) and one game in January after they were mathematically eliminated.

The 1999 Eagles also waited until they were 2-7 before letting McNabb start a game. He couldn't beat out Doug Pederson (who had 32 career passing attempts from 1993-1998 and had no familiarity with the team as he wasn't even on the Eagles in '98).

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What really puts things into perspective are the stats on defense & rushing. Note that of the 26 rookie QB's in the last 16 years 5 of them took their teams to the post season.

What's interesting is that without exception each of those 5 rookie QB's had teams with good defenses and running games and they were the only ones of the 26 who did. Which means a top defense and running game combined is a strong indicator for making the post season despite the QB (case in point would be Kyle Boller and Kyle Orton).

I'm actually very encouraged now that I've looked this up that if we can produce a strong running game and top defense (and there is every reason to believe we can) we can make the post season with Sanchez. The stats speak for themselves smile.gif.

Interesting.

The Jets are clearly built to go with an inexperienced QB, and no matter who wins the competition that's what they'll be going into the season with. The Jets have been built with the defense/running game theory since Parcells took over.

Whoever's taking the snaps is going to have to throw the ball well enough to keep the other team honest, while simultaneously not turning it over. The defense can be top ten on paper, but the Jets could be losing 10-6 every week. In the past, the Jets have had defenses that were overrated statistically because their offense wasn't a threat at all. We saw that a lot in the Herm years.

If the offense isn't good enough to get leads, the running game is going to suffer, the defense is on the field more, and the whole model falls apart. It's a team game.

I think our young QB is in much better position to win than Detroit's, though, I'll give you that.

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There are blind QB's who are in a better situation to win than Stafford.

Sanchez is a in a better situation to win, but Stafford is in a better situation to succeed immediately.

You don't have to be Joe Montana to throw to Calvin Johnson. Our running game is better, but Kevin Smith isn't a slouch either.

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Sanchez is a in a better situation to win, but Stafford is in a better situation to succeed immediately.

You don't have to be Joe Montana to throw to Calvin Johnson. Our running game is better, but Kevin Smith isn't a slouch either.

He will die behind that offensive line. Die!

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