Jump to content

Patriots-Colts SNF


124
 Share

Recommended Posts

You know I typically agree with you and I have no problem with statistical analysis, but I just can't agree with you at all on this one.

If you look at the bold above, this is why you can't just use numbers in a vacuum to justify the call. I don't care who he normally is, Brady was not getting it done right there and then. That was obvious before that 4th down call came in. All of the percentages assume that the same circumstances occur at all times. It may average out to that statistical result over time, but that doesn't mean that in any single circumstance the actual odds are equivalent to that. That simply isn't the way statistics work. At that particular time, the Colts defense was stepping up and the Patriots offense was struggling. That should tell you your odds are going to likely be lower than average. At a certain point logic has to come into play, because if all you needed was statistics to coach in the NFL, you would have a very different set of head coaches out on the sideline.

The overriding logic there should've been that Mannign was going to score if they punted it..

And i really don't know what you were seeing in terms of the COlts defense. That Pats were moving the ball in the second half, they only punted 1 time. Had a short field 2x and fumbled the ball after a 90 yard drive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Pats had what 480-490 total yards at that point? I've got no problem with them going for it there. Not b/c I don't trust our defense but rather b/c I have that much trust in our offense.

In the Brady era, we've converted nearly 80% of all our 4 and 2 or less plays. And that includes the previous generation of Patriot offenses with far less talent than this one. Even if the offense fails to convert, your defense still gives you a chance to win. Add whatever chance that defense gives you to the 80% and the odds are actually in favor of going for it. It's not a conventional call, but that's one of the reason's I love Belichick. He's not STUCK in any conventional box. He'll consider anything if it makes sense. I think he made the right call and I don't think this is the last time we'll see him make it.

The only problem I have is with the plays that were called. They've got to run the ball at least once in those last two plays. Put in your jumbo package and challenge the Colts to man up. I don't think they could. They're a small defense.

In any case, the call to go for it on 4th was neither genius or stupid. The only stupidity belongs to those people who believe in absolutes....Like Mike Francesca. That guy really irritates me. Closed mindedness sucks. And to hear it from a guy who makes his living in perhaps the least valuable profession on the planet is a joke. Sports media types are even worse than lawyers. We should just execute them all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is all officially a charade.

Today on page 80 if the NY Post they quote one Herman Edwards knocking Bellicheck for his decision.I'm not sure Herman Edwards is qualified enough to select a breakfast cereal, yet Taglibue forced him on the Jets, but I digress. If this dipsheet thinks it was a bad idea-a moron who intentionally moved his kicker back 3 yards in a playoff game-I go with Bellicheat.

Have a hard time getting too crazy about this. The Colts will probably have the top seed in the AFC and host the AFC title game, and they were going to have it anyway(especially if they can get Bob Sanders healthy)

The Pats are going to win the AFC East(Thanks, Jets! another year of futility; great work!), but didn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is all officially a charade.

Today on page 80 if the NY Post they quote one Herman Edwards knocking Bellicheck for his decision.I'm not sure Herman Edwards is qualified enough to select a breakfast cereal, yet Taglibue forced him on the Jets, but I digress. If this dipsheet thinks it was a bad idea-a moron who intentionally moved his kicker back 3 yards in a playoff game-I go with Bellicheat.

Have a hard time getting too crazy about this. The Colts will probably have the top seed in the AFC and host the AFC title game, and they were going to have it anyway(especially if they can get Bob Sanders healthy)

The Pats are going to win the AFC East(Thanks, Jets! another year of futility; great work!), but didn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dont be too sure about that

Cinn has an easy schedule rest of way and their Def can take of Pats

pats will have 1 home game and 2 road games in playoffs

Nonsense. I hate the Pats, but realistically Bellicheat can keep his defense together long enough to thwart Carson Palmer(who is not Manning), and Brady will pick them apart. And whether they play in Foxboro or Cinncinati doesn't matter.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where to start :rl:

NE is not losing to Houston but keep smoking crack. Brady owns $hitsburg. They dont match up well at all with NE.

NE just hung 34 on Indy and put 457 yards on their defense. They can and will get beat. So, dream on.

Ummm. Indy was starting two rookies and no Bob Sanders. Does NE put up those numbers on a healthy Colts defense in Indy? NO.

Five years and counting......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nonsense. I hate the Pats, but realistically Bellicheat can keep his defense together long enough to thwart Carson Palmer(who is not Manning), and Brady will pick them apart. And whether they play in Foxboro or Cinncinati doesn't matter.

Cinn has 2 shutdown Corners and a great Defense

They have shut down 2 very good offenses twice Pitt and Balt

I was not convinced until this past weekend

Cinn has a legit shot to making the SB

NE cannot run and will fall short on road

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

Book it. That loss is fuel for the fire.

FTR, I havent commented on this yet, but I actually liked the call. When a coach like that feels that going for it gives them their best chance to win, then you dont question it IMO. We all have the benefit of hindsight. If he picks it up, we arent having this convo. And BB does this all the time. Its kind of like giving the ball to MJ and saying hit the game winning shot. He gave the ball to Brady and said make the play, end the game.

My bones are not with the decision, mine is with the play call. Why run right past the first and leave a margin for error. They should have looked to throw the ball at least 5 yards guaranteeing to pick up the first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Patriots are going to the Super Bowl.

Book it. That loss is fuel for the fire.

FTR, I havent commented on this yet, but I actually liked the call. When a coach like that feels that going for it gives them their best chance to win, then you dont question it IMO. We all have the benefit of hindsight. If he picks it up, we arent having this convo. And BB does this all the time. Its kind of like giving the ball to MJ and saying hit the game winning shot. He gave the ball to Brady and said make the play, end the game.

My bones are not with the decision, mine is with the play call. Why run right past the first and leave a margin for error. They should have looked to throw the ball at least 5 yards guaranteeing to pick up the first.

Not happening, Will be on road and Indy will be healthier and Cinn has a great Def

and a Stud QB in Palmer and a legit RB in Benson

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not happening, Will be on road and Indy will be healthier and Cinn has a great Def

and a Stud QB in Palmer and a legit RB in Benson

We shall see, keep in mind that home field advantage hasnt really ever helped the Colts that much and we have been seeing plenty of WC teams or teams without home field advantage going to the SB in recent years.

When its all said and done, the Pats have Brady, Moss and BB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We shall see, keep in mind that home field advantage hasnt really ever helped the Colts that much and we have been seeing plenty of WC teams or teams without home field advantage going to the SB in recent years.

When its all said and done, the Pats have Brady, Moss and BB.

And the Colts have Manning who obviously throws Belichick off his game.

Right now, Bill Belichick is scared to death of Peyton Manning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like who?

Indy 4 defensive starters

and Gonzalez on O

Did you see the Patriots d-line? Wilfork and bag of donuts.

If the Pats make the playoff's, they just pissed away any chance at home field .....where it's 'gonna be cold, it will probably be windy and there is always the possibility of snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you see the Patriots d-line? Wilfork and bag of donuts.

If the Pats make the playoff's, they just pissed away any chance at home field .....where it's 'gonna be cold, it will probably be windy and there is always the possibility of snow.

I realize Warren was out, PR37 blows utters nonsense

I like Bengals right now, their Def is legit and has Palmer to manage game

Belly is an arrogant fool and yes it cost you home field

Edited by jakeG
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize Warren was out, PR37 lows utters nonsense

I like Bengals right now, their Def is legit and has Palmer to manage game

Belly is an arrogant fool and yes it cost you home field

Green too. Than Banta-Cain goes down, which I suppose isn't that big of a deal until you realize he's really the Pats' only viable pass-rusher - which is pathetic, I know.

If the Pats make the playoff's - home field was a long shot anyway - now it's a no-shot...and that's IF they make the playoff's.

The more I think about the the 4th and 2 call, the more I understand it. Still would not have done it...but their conversation rate on 4th down is over 65% (according to a local sports radio show I overhead driving home from the airport last evening). It was a gamble. He lost. Cost the team. It sucks. You move on.

I have to admit though - I'd rather have an arrogant coach that won't back down than an arrogant coach that breaks down and cries when someone kicks sand in his bully face.

Edited by Garb
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Green too. Than Banta-Cain goes down, which I suppose isn't that big of a deal until you realize he's really the Pats' only viable pass-rusher - which is pathetic, I know.

If the Pats make the playoff's - home field was a long shot anyway - now it's a no-shot...and that's IF they make the playoff's.

The more I think about the the 4th and 2 call, the more I understand it. Still would not have done it...but their conversation rate on 4th down is over 65% (according to a local sports radio show I overhead driving home from the airport last evening). It was a gamble. He lost. Cost the team. It sucks. You move on.

bellie should never punt with his logic,

He has done it many times on his own side of 30 before and got away with it

6 point lead on 28, it clearly sez Punt the ****1ng ball (in football for dummies) i do not care if Jim Brown is in backfield, all 11 guys were at line of scrimmage

even my girlfriend was confused at call and she knows very little

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bellie should never punt with his logic,

He has done it many times on his own side of 30 before and got away with it

6 point lead on 28, it clearly sez Punt the ****1ng ball (in football for dummies) i do not care if Jim Brown is in backfield, all 11 guys were at line of scrimmage

even my girlfriend was confused at call and she knows very little

...further, why not let the Colts score quick and give Brady more than 9 seconds to get within field goal range? As stated, I do not agree with the decision, but I get it.....I think ;)

And speaking of Jim Brown....the Pats would not have been in that position if they had a real running game - besides delays to Faulk. Maroney (fumbles at the goal line - thank you, doody head!) runs for 31 yards on 13 carries? Whhaaa??? No chance of killing clock with the run game. No chance of extending drives with the run game. Quick slants and two yard outs (with yac) IS the run game. Ugh.

Edited by Garb
Link to comment
Share on other sites

...further, why not let the Colts score quick and give Brady more than 9 seconds to get within field goal range? As stated, I do not agree with the decision, but I get it.....I think ;)

And speaking of Jim Brown....the Pat would not have been in that position if they had a real running game - besides delays to Faulk. Maroney (fumbles at the goal line - thank you, doody head!) runs for 31 yards on 13 carries? Whhaaa??? No chance of killing clock with the run game game. No chance of extending drives with the run game. Quick slants and two yard outs (with yac) IS the run game. Ugh.

According to PR/Gonzo your run game is fine

what do i know i root for a team that invents new ways to lose each week

ready to jump on Cinn, 20 years of suffering is enough but i digress

Edited by jakeG
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize Warren was out, PR37 blows utters nonsense

I like Bengals right now, their Def is legit and has Palmer to manage game

Belly is an arrogant fool and yes it cost you home field

The only one doing any blowing around here is you.

OUT- Jarvis Green, Fred Taylor, Sam Morris, Banta Cain, Shawn Springs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fred taylor laugh out Loud

TBC laugh out louder

Morris i am laughin real hard now

Springs lost his job a while back you foolie

Although laughable - TBC is the Pats' BEST PASS RUSHER. Kid you not. Although laugahble - Taylor and Morris are infinitely better than Larry Macaroney. Springs lost his starting gig weeks ago. Was part of the rotation though and definitely in nickle and dime packages.

Edited by Garb
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although laughable - TBC is the Pats' BEST PASS RUSHER. Kid you not. Although laugahble - Taylor and Morris are infinitely better than Larry Macaroney. Springs lost his starting gig a few weeks ago. Was part of the rotation though and definitely in nickel and dime packages.

And Addai got hurt during 1st TD series and missed 2nd and 3rd qtr

quote was for PR am too lazy to change

I thought Burgess was suppose to be a steal and Adelis where has he been?

Aside from wilfork mayo and Merriweather, the defensive cupboard is bare

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And Addai got hurt during 1st TD series and missed 2nd and 3rd qtr

quote was for PR am too lazy to change

I thought Burgess was suppose to be a steal and Adelis where has he been?

Aside from wilfork mayo and Merriweather, the defensive cupboard is bare

Burgess is mediocre at best. Thomas has his moments - but after that first year has a tendency to dissappear. My guess is that he will disappear from the team altogther when this season is done. The secondary is young, but promising. Meriweather is looking good. McGowan is becoming my new favorite. Butler has flashes and Bodden is solid. Wilhite - eh. Mayo is great. Guyton is good. Wilfork is outstanding. Warren is terrific and Green is very good. Mike Wright is a decent back-up. Burgess, Thomas and whomever I did not mention are worth two pencils and an oatmeal cookie.

I can almost guarantee that Matt Light and Adalius Thomas will NOT be Patriots next year. I can see Thomas being a Jet.

Edited by Garb
Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=dw-belichickpats111609&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

MUST READ article for all of you people who think in absolutes.

The call was neither right nor wrong. Many games have been lost following conventional wisdom as well. Whether you agree with the call or not, it has nothing to do with ego, arrogance, or stupidity. It was a legitimate, if unpopular, decision.

BB has never been a conventional thinker. That's what makes him stand out as a head coach. He's willing to try things others are not. When he told his Giants players prior to their SB against the Bills that his gameplan was to "allow Thurman Thomas" to run all over them, they thought he was insane. Now that gameplan is on display in the Hall of Fame.

Here's another controvercial decision I can see BB making.

Imagine being down 7 in a game where both offenses catch fire at the end of the game. You score a TD with no time on the clock or perhaps just a few seconds. Do you kick the XP and send the game into OT and hope for a lucky coin flip or do you take control into your own hands and go for two? I say that in the above scenario, with both offenses dominating the game late, BB goes for two. Maybe you like the call, maybe you don't. There is no right answer. It's a judgement call. Personally, I think its awesome to see a head coach unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom, or NON-wisdom as the case may be, and think for himself.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...