Will Sanchez' pick percentage realistically drop off?

[JerryK]

I've been thinking about John Elway lately, because I heard he had a bumpy first year and then did "well" in years 2+.

In 10 games that first year, Elway had 14 picks (After game 11, Sanchez has 16). The next year, Elway had 15 picks. In year 3, Elway had 23 picks. That's 14/15/23 in years 1,2,3 from a HOF QB.

So, I guess I'm wondering if you stats guys can make me feel better. Are there QB's I can look to who have seen their pick% drop off significantly after year1?

I know we're in the hunt THIS year, but I think if Mark cuts this stat next year, and Rex keeps the D in shape, the Colts and Pats will be delivering our newspaper.

[cmcm750203]

I've been thinking about John Elway lately, because I heard he had a bumpy first year and then did "well" in years 2+.

In 10 games that first year, Elway had 14 picks (After game 11, Sanchez has 16). The next year, Elway had 15 picks. In year 3, Elway had 23 picks. That's 14/15/23 in years 1,2,3 from a HOF QB.

So, I guess I'm wondering if you stats guys can make me feel better. Are there QB's I can look to who have seen their pick% drop off significantly after year1?

I know we're in the hunt THIS year, but I think if Mark cuts this stat next year, and Rex keeps the D in shape, the Colts and Pats will be delivering our newspaper.

Not comparing the two QB's potential b/c obviously Peyton is in a different class but he had 28 INT's in year one and 15 year 2 so it definitely is possible

[CTM]

1) ELway played in a bit different of an era when INT's were higher overall

2) Haven't you heard? Taking your lumps as a rookie means guarenteed success in year 2. We have nothing to worry about

[aec4]

I've been thinking about John Elway lately, because I heard he had a bumpy first year and then did "well" in years 2+.

In 10 games that first year, Elway had 14 picks (After game 11, Sanchez has 16). The next year, Elway had 15 picks. In year 3, Elway had 23 picks. That's 14/15/23 in years 1,2,3 from a HOF QB.

So, I guess I'm wondering if you stats guys can make me feel better. Are there QB's I can look to who have seen their pick% drop off significantly after year1?

I know we're in the hunt THIS year, but I think if Mark cuts this stat next year, and Rex keeps the D in shape, the Colts and Pats will be delivering our newspaper.

Sanchez had like 13 of his picks in 3 games... When he removes those "rookie" games, or at least minimizes them, the picks go down.

[Stonehands]

I think the notion that you learn everything you need to during your first year and will see some dramatic improvement as a result is extremely flawed. Playing the QB position in the NFL is a difficult thing to do and QB's continue to learn and improve throughout their careers. Look at Jay Cutler. Here is a guy who looked to have finally "got it" in his third year in the league and he is back to struggling in year 4. Look at Favre, he seems to have finally figured out how to be more efficient at the age of 40. There is a reason why so many veteran QB's (like Garcia, Testaverde, DeBerg) seem to stick in the league way past the end of their athletic skils. It is a tough job to learn. I think you will see Sanchez make small improvements each year. He seems to be a hard worker and a smart kid and he is an accurate thrower. Once he learns where and when not to throw the ball, the interceptions should come down, but I don't think it wil be like a light switch. It will be gradual over his career.

[CTM]

Sanchez had like 13 of his picks in 3 games... When he removes those "rookie" games, or at least minimizes them, the picks go down.

He's also not asked to do much and faces defenses 100% designed to stop the run every week.

ON the other hand, next year Schotty should be gone, so it should help..

The cause of r concern hs been the regression with sanchez, he's gotten worse at things he did ok, and hasn't gotten any better at the things he did poorly.

[neckdemon]

I think the notion that you learn everything you need to during your first year and will see some dramatic improvement as a result is extremely flawed. Playing the QB position in the NFL is a difficult thing to do and QB's continue to learn and improve throughout their careers. Look at Jay Cutler. Here is a guy who looked to have finally "got it" in his third year in the league and he is back to struggling in year 4. Look at Favre, he seems to have finally figured out how to be more efficient at the age of 40. There is a reason why so many veteran QB's (like Garcia, Testaverde, DeBerg) seem to stick in the league way past the end of their athletic skils. It is a tough job to learn. I think you will see Sanchez make small improvements each year. He seems to be a hard worker and a smart kid and he is an accurate thrower. Once he learns where and when not to throw the ball, the interceptions should come down, but I don't think it wil be like a light switch. It will be gradual over his career.

i'm just more concerned with him cutting out the 4-5 turnover games. that's just a killer, and he's had too many of that type game. that is something i think we should realistically expect for him to improve on dramatically in year 2.

[Klecko73isGod]

Sanchez will improve once the game slows down for him.

[ZachEY]

He's also not asked to do much and faces defenses 100% designed to stop the run every week.

ON the other hand, next year Schotty should be gone, so it should help..

The cause of r concern hs been the regression with sanchez, he's gotten worse at things he did ok, and hasn't gotten any better at the things he did poorly.

If we go 2/3, I bet Shotty is back.

[shawn306]

Denver was more of a passing team Elway's first couple of years. There running game at best was mediocre.

Elway was basically expected to do be THE MAN those first couple of years. It wasn't until late in his career when they got Davis that they became a complete team.

I would be shocked if that is the way the Jets handle Sanchez. I think Ryan's style is to play smashmouth football and great defense. So yes I do think those int numbers will come down as Sanchez learns how to read defenses and stops making dumb mistakes.

[slats]

Haven't you heard? Taking your lumps as a rookie means guarenteed success in year 2. We have nothing to worry about

This has been an excellent learning situation for Sanchez. He's a young QB with very limited experience. That time on the field will prove to be invaluable to his development. It's not like a David Carr (or Kellen Clemens) situation where he's gotten punished and drilled into a shell back there. He's made mistakes, and hopefully he's learned from them. He seems like a bright kid and a hard worker, so I'm gonna take the tack that he has learned.

He's also not asked to do much and faces defenses 100% designed to stop the run every week.

ON the other hand, next year Schotty should be gone, so it should help..

The cause of r concern hs been the regression with sanchez, he's gotten worse at things he did ok, and hasn't gotten any better at the things he did poorly.

He's actually asked to do a lot. The Jets constantly put him in third down situations, and expect him to throw them out of it without giving him the chance to get any sort of rhythm on non-obvious passing downs. Defenses should be lined up to stop the run every week, but it's not like the Jets ever try to take advantage of that with a play action pass. The defense knows full well when Sanchez is going to throw, and at those times they're lined up to stop it.

He's also had a musical chairs situation at receiver. He worked with Stuckey all off-season, then lost him to Braylon who he doesn't know at all. Then Cotch got hurt and he was stuck with Braylon, Keller, and Clowney all running crappy routes. In the meantime, the opposition was gathering tape and learning the rookie's tendencies. Yet thru it all, it looked to me like he hit a slump and was starting to get himself out of it. I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs after the week off.

[CTM]

This has been an excellent learning situation for Sanchez. He's a young QB with very limited experience. That time on the field will prove to be invaluable to his development. It's not like a David Carr (or Kellen Clemens) situation where he's gotten punished and drilled into a shell back there. He's made mistakes, and hopefully he's learned from them. He seems like a bright kid and a hard worker, so I'm gonna take the tack that he has learned.

Sanchez's pocket presence has went from decent to clemenesque. He's struggling mentally under the criticism and his own coach is calling him stupid. His best game was his first one and now he's sporting another knee brace

I'm having a hard time thinking this experiance is very helpful

[Sperm Edwards]

I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs after the week off.

+1

Sometimes a person needs to take a breather. Let's hope 10+ days off the field helped him clear his head.

[Jetscode1]

This has been an excellent learning situation for Sanchez. He's a young QB with very limited experience. That time on the field will prove to be invaluable to his development. It's not like a David Carr (or Kellen Clemens) situation where he's gotten punished and drilled into a shell back there. He's made mistakes, and hopefully he's learned from them. He seems like a bright kid and a hard worker, so I'm gonna take the tack that he has learned.

He's actually asked to do a lot. The Jets constantly put him in third down situations, and expect him to throw them out of it without giving him the chance to get any sort of rhythm on non-obvious passing downs. Defenses should be lined up to stop the run every week, but it's not like the Jets ever try to take advantage of that with a play action pass. The defense knows full well when Sanchez is going to throw, and at those times they're lined up to stop it.

He's also had a musical chairs situation at receiver. He worked with Stuckey all off-season, then lost him to Braylon who he doesn't know at all. Then Cotch got hurt and he was stuck with Braylon, Keller, and Clowney all running crappy routes. In the meantime, the opposition was gathering tape and learning the rookie's tendencies. Yet thru it all, it looked to me like he hit a slump and was starting to get himself out of it. I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs after the week off.

Agree with you on many posts but this post explains why I'm excited for continued development of Mark Sanchez...each week the opponents have found ways to expose his flaws...after every week we have seen him bounce back...he's not yet polished...nor resolved each flaw...but he's competitive, he make plays and has shown enough to want to watch him play the next week.

The complete opposite of KC and the later years of Chad...absolutely despised their play and the games become almost unwatchable.

[slats]

Sanchez's pocket presence has went from decent to clemenesque.

That's BS.

He's struggling mentally under the criticism and his own coach is calling him stupid. His best game was his first one and now he's sporting another knee brace

I'm having a hard time thinking this experiance is very helpful

His coach is also a bit of a blabbermouth.

They were trying to get him to slide for a while, but the play that he hurt his knee on was a good play. You have to dive for the first down there. This is another example of the coaching staff not putting him in a position to be successful. More first or second down throws, and maybe he can learn to slide short of the first down marker once in a while. On third down in a tight game, you have to get the first down there. I don't know how bad his knee was before that play, but that was a flukey looking injury to me. One that probably doesn't happen on any other field.

He's had so little college experience that any time he gets on the field is going to benefit him.

[CTM]

+1

Sometimes a person needs to take a breather. Let's hope 10+ days off the field helped him clear his head.

agreed..

[CTM]

That's BS.

Really? Not to these eyes.. He gets pressure he moves to the side instead of stepping up, almost every time

[JerryK]

Really? Not to these eyes.. He gets pressure he moves to the side instead of stepping up, almost every time

Probably true, but I also think part of being a QB with great pocket presence is: Having an OL that doesn't require you to always have great pocket presence.

[Scott Dierking]

He's also not asked to do much and faces defenses 100% designed to stop the run every week.

ON the other hand, next year Schotty should be gone, so it should help..

The cause of r concern hs been the regression with sanchez, he's gotten worse at things he did ok, and hasn't gotten any better at the things he did poorly.

People think that somehow Schott will be gone next year.

I don't think that is going to be the case.

[ZachEY]

People think that somehow Schott will be gone next year.

I don't think that is going to be the case.

Me either. I dunno if I said it in this thread, or another, but I bet if we win 2/3, he's back. 1/3 and it'll be interesting and dependent on how the offense performs in that stretch.

[CTM]

People think that somehow Schott will be gone next year.

I don't think that is going to be the case.

that.would.suck

[Scott Dierking]

Me either. I dunno if I said it in this thread, or another, but I bet if we win 2/3, he's back. 1/3 and it'll be interesting and dependent on how the offense performs in that stretch.

Schotty has proven that he can "dumb down" an offense.

We already know he can add in the "exotics" and be flashy if we develop that.

We don't need to give Sanchez another excuse and another offense to learn next year.

My simple guess is he stays.

[serphnx]

The INT numbers have already gone down since Rex took over the offense. They'll be fine next year with the experience, another training camp, and a better OC at the helm. Schitty really does suck.

[Bruce Banner]

I've been thinking about John Elway lately, because I heard he had a bumpy first year and then did "well" in years 2+.

In 10 games that first year, Elway had 14 picks (After game 11, Sanchez has 16). The next year, Elway had 15 picks. In year 3, Elway had 23 picks. That's 14/15/23 in years 1,2,3 from a HOF QB.

So, I guess I'm wondering if you stats guys can make me feel better. Are there QB's I can look to who have seen their pick% drop off significantly after year1?

I know we're in the hunt THIS year, but I think if Mark cuts this stat next year, and Rex keeps the D in shape, the Colts and Pats will be delivering our newspaper.

Elway had to do it all by himself during those years. He was like the outlaw Josey Wales trying to fight off everyone by himself on his horse. Can't really compare that to the cushy situation Sanchez is in.

[Irish Jet]

The INT numbers have already gone down since Rex took over the offense. They'll be fine next year with the experience, another training camp, and a better OC at the helm. Schitty really does suck.

This

[villain_the_foe]

1) ELway played in a bit different of an era when INT's were higher overall

2) Haven't you heard? Taking your lumps as a rookie means guarenteed success in year 2. We have nothing to worry about

Thats what its about. This is the year for him to test his skills amongst the best. It hurts initially but Im so glad that he's been able to go through this because one thing that I can say about Sanchez is that he's a competitive dude and he gives his all. In that respect he'll figure out what needs to be done naturally just by playing. Next year I think is going to be a bit bumpy as well, but you'll start to see more of what we expect from him. I think this years draft will created atleast three HOF QB's

I think that Sanchez, Stafford and believe it or not Freeman will be the real deal when its all said and done.

Oh, and though I talk shyte about him I think Henne for the Fins is going to make the Jets/Dolphins a Rivalry to remember again. The Pats are on a downward spiral and I actually think that the Dolphins are the real deal. They need a few more pieces but just watchin henne as a football spectator and not a Jets fan, this kid has an incredible arm and its accurate. All he needs is to make the right read and he seems to be able to do that more often than not.

The Jets and Fins will be running this division for the next 10 years, and hopefully the AFC.