JMJ Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I love Seth Joyner's stuff and I know a lot of other people here do also. What he has to say here doesn't make me feel too good, still don't see the Bolts running on us though: For the 2009 NFL playoffs, Football Scientist K.C. Joyner offers "Contrarian Thoughts" on various games; essentially, he tells you the things that you'll keep hearing which aren't necessarily true. This edition focuses on everyone's favorite "He's in decline!" punching bag, Mr. LaDainian Tomlinson. LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers will be able to run the ball with frequent success against the Jets. This would seem highly unlikely, since New York ranked eighth in rush yards allowed during the regular season and San Diego was next to last in ground yards gained. I wouldn't have believed it myself, but then I broke it down more: That No. 8 rush defense ranking isn't all it's cracked up to be -- and the Jets, despite beating the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend at their place, are coming off one of the worst run-defense performances of the season. Oh, and San Diego and LT? Not quite over that hill just yet. Point 1: The Jets' overall run-defense numbers are not anywhere near as good as the No. 8 ranking indicates. The Jets' high overall ranking in rush yards allowed is more than offset by the fact that they gave up over 100 yards on the ground eight times during the regular season. It was actually a bit worse than the sheer volume of triple-digit games; the Jets allowed an average of 133 rushing yards in those contests. Prorate that total over a 16-game stretch and it equals 2,128 yards, a mark that would rank 27th in the league. To put it another way: In half of their games this year, the Jets had a run defense that was a significant liability. Point 2: New York put up one of its worst run-defense performances of the entire year last weekend. The 171 yards gained by the Bengals in Saturday's wild-card game was easily the highest total allowed by New York this year. As bad of an omen as that is, the individual point of attack (POA) run-blocking metrics in that contest also provide reason for concern. My game-tracking system had New York defenders being beaten on 52 of the 64 POA blocks made by the Bengals. That equates to an 18.8 percent POA win rate, which is actually a fairly solid total, but almost all of the 12 wins were generated by Calvin Pace (four POA wins), Bart Scott (two POA wins) and Sean Ellis (two POA wins). The Jets' defensive linemen won only two of the 22 POA blocks, and the cornerbacks/safeties won zero of their six POA blocks. The 3-4 defense is designed to funnel a lot of activity to specific players, but it cannot be a good sign when the front three and back four defensive players have a combined POA win rate of 7.1 percent. Point 3: San Diego is much closer to having a solid running attack than we generally think. There is no doubt that LaDainian Tomlinson is not an elite back anymore. His 3.3 yards-per-rush-attempt mark was the lowest among running backs with 200 or more carries this season -- and his 730-yard total was easily the lowest of his career (it was the first time in nine seasons that he hasn't topped 1,000 yards). That's the glass half-empty viewpoint. Now let's go glass half-full. LT had 56 carries of more than 5 yards between Weeks 6 and 16; he gained 459 yards on those runs, or 8.2 yards per attempt. If LT can duplicate the frequency and YPA average of this stretch against the Jets, it will put San Diego nearly halfway toward triple digits in rush yardage. Another optimistic metric can be found in the late-season improvement in POA win rate shown by the Chargers' blockers. San Diego's offensive line struggled mightily early on; the Chargers had at least one POA blocking loss on 40.1 percent of their runs in Weeks 1-9. The big problem with that metric is this: Leaguewide, YPA average on runs with one or more POA losses is usually between 1-2 yards. Consistent production cannot be achieved without consistent blocking, and that is a key reason Chargers ballcarriers gained only 4.4 yards per attempt on those plays. The good news for the Bolts is that both of those metrics saw something of a turnaround in Weeks 10-16. San Diego blockers lowered their POA loss rate to 34.3 percent during that time frame. A decrease of nearly 6 percent might not sound like much -- but consider that the Chargers had 213 POA runs in those contests. That improvement meant San Diego runners had 12 all-win POA carries down the stretch that they may not have had earlier on; those POA wins were the key reason why Chargers running backs also improved their YPA on all-win POA runs to a 5.1 total, which is nearly a yard better than their earlier mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Somebody needs to tell this writer that LT2 is teh suck in the playoffs. If he even plays, he's the mush. Not scared of his old washed up weird video music making ass at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 LT had 56 carries of more than 5 yards between Weeks 6 and 16; he gained 459 yards on those runs, or 8.2 yards per attempt. If LT can duplicate the frequency and YPA average of this stretch against the Jets, it will put San Diego nearly halfway toward triple digits in rush yardage. Wow! IF Tomlinson continues his improved numbers he will get 50 yards!!! How can we win!?!?!?!?!? Fearsome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Holy cherry-picking, Batman! Point 1: The Jets' overall run-defense numbers are not anywhere near as good as the No. 8 ranking indicates. The Jets' high overall ranking in rush yards allowed is more than offset by the fact that they gave up over 100 yards on the ground eight times during the regular season. It was actually a bit worse than the sheer volume of triple-digit games; the Jets allowed an average of 133 rushing yards in those contests. Prorate that total over a 16-game stretch and it equals 2,128 yards, a mark that would rank 27th in the league. To put it another way: In half of their games this year, the Jets had a run defense that was a significant liability. [..] Point 3: San Diego is much closer to having a solid running attack than we generally think. [..] LT had 56 carries of more than 5 yards between Weeks 6 and 16; he gained 459 yards on those runs, or 8.2 yards per attempt. If LT can duplicate the frequency and YPA average of this stretch against the Jets, it will put San Diego nearly halfway toward triple digits in rush yardage. I often enjoy the Outsiders take on things, but the stats he pulls out of his ass here are nothing short of irresponsible journalism. What sort of rushing attacks did the Jets face in those eight games? Were they often better than 20th in the league? If we instead prorate the other eight regular season games, is it safe to assume the Jets would've put up all time great numbers? How many carries did LT run for fewer than 5 yards from weeks 6-16? I'm guessing quite a few, being that he averaged 3.3 for the year. As for the crappy rushing defense the Jets put up on Saturday, the first comment out of Rex's mouth as he was interviewed leaving the field was something to the effect of, "it's not the way we planned to do it, giving up 171 yards on the ground." So he's acutely aware of the issue. Never mind that the Bengals averaged 40 more ypg than the Chargers did this season rushing the football. What a garbage article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Holy cherry-picking, Batman! I often enjoy the Outsiders take on things, but the stats he pulls out of his ass here are nothing short of irresponsible journalism. What sort of rushing attacks did the Jets face in those eight games? Were they often better than 20th in the league? If we instead prorate the other eight regular season games, is it safe to assume the Jets would've put up all time great numbers? How many carries did LT run for fewer than 5 yards from weeks 6-16? I'm guessing quite a few, being that he averaged 3.3 for the year. As for the crappy rushing defense the Jets put up on Saturday, the first comment out of Rex's mouth as he was interviewed leaving the field was something to the effect of, "it's not the way we planned to do it, giving up 171 yards on the ground." So he's acutely aware of the issue. Never mind that the Bengals averaged 40 more ypg than the Chargers did this season rushing the football. What a garbage article. The Bengals were the 9th ranked rushing team in the league. If SD plays to it's relative ranking against us, they'll pick up about 85 yards on the ground Sunday. I can cherry pick stats and extrapolate nonsensical conclusions too!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Like I said in the other thread, this guys used to use his facts to prove Pennington was a top notch QB. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 That's some great extrapolating there. I think we can spin the numbers to show that Sanchez deserved to go to the Pro Bowl this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I don't think Seth Joyner is a scientist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 That's some great extrapolating there. I think we can spin the numbers to show that Sanchez deserved to go to the Pro Bowl this year. lets not go crazy here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I wouldn't even be surprised if they did. The Jets defense is pretty overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustInFudge Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I wouldn't even be surprised if they did. The Jets defense is pretty overrated. IJ going off the deep end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 My game-tracking system had New York defenders being beaten on 52 of the 64 POA blocks made by the Bengals. That equates to an 18.8 percent POA win rate, which is actually a fairly solid total, but almost all of the 12 wins were generated by Calvin Pace (four POA wins), Bart Scott (two POA wins) and Sean Ellis (two POA wins). A little off topic, but when people say the run defense is better without Kris Jenkins they forget that Jenkins played in four games where Pace was suspended and one game where Ellis was suspended and that affects the teams stats in the games Jenkins was in. Also, Jenkins did not play in the last two games of the season where the opponents didn't even try to win. I think if it wasn't for Indy and Cincy laying down at the end of the season the Ravens would have finished with the number one defense. Anyway, Benson is so much better than anyone San Diego has right now that I don't think that game is important to predicting this upcoming game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bergen Jet Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I don't think Seth Joyner is a scientist. He was a great LB though. I am glad somebody else caught the OP said Seth instead of KC Joyner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 lets not go crazy here.. Why not? If I use the Seth Joyner method, I can take Sanchez' best 8 games and extrapolate it over 16 to get some good numbers. It worked for Joyner's article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
124 Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Scientists suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mentos Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Why not? If I use the Seth Joyner method, I can take Sanchez' best 8 games and extrapolate it over 16 to get some good numbers. It worked for Joyner's article. For the 2009 NFL playoffs, Football Scientist K.C. Joyner offers "Contrarian Thoughts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 I don't think Seth Joyner is a scientist. Racist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 OMG if the Jets' worst game defending the run was their average game, they'd have the worst rushing defense in the league! And Tomlinson had a 20-yard run two months ago in one of his 20 carries against Denver. If you average that one carry over a 350-carry season he'd have ended up with 7000 yards this year alone. In a 3000-carry career that would be 60,000 rushing yards. We are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMJ Posted January 14, 2010 Author Share Posted January 14, 2010 Ha. I said Seth Joyner in the other thread also. Everyone deserves a little fail from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Ha. I said Seth Joyner in the other thread also. Everyone deserves a little fail from time to time. You want fail? One of Thomas Jones' carries went for no gain. If that was his average, he'd have no yards on the season. Also, if trees and shrubs were fluorescent pink, the makers of dark green camouflage gear would be like totally out of business. That's fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Lol...The only word that offends Jet fans more than Pennington is extrapolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 14, 2010 Share Posted January 14, 2010 Racist! If it's any consolation, I don't think that John Clayton is a professor either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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