Need an ESPN Insider... Divergent Paths for Greene, Sanchez

[RutgersJetFan]

I really don't see why people are going Smails all over this article. If FO pulled a stat that said Sanchez had x in common with Peyton Manning's rookie season, half this board would be breaking out the Jergens and JO'ing for 12-15 minutes over the mention. Who cares if it's out of context? DVOA and comp % measure certain things and the fact that he's similar in a popular, measurable category to the biggest laughing stock in the league is worth a mention on the Internet. I seriously doubt Jefe is going to get wind of this and let it affect his game, especially considering how much crap he's already dealt with from larger media sources, (quite well mind you). It's an interesting statistical comparison that's worth a mention. If you're not a FO fan, how any reaction besides "slightly out of context, plus who gives a ****, we're in the Conference Championship this week," can come to mind is beyond me.

[JustInFudge]

Dismissing the similarities between Sanchez's rookie season and Russell's second season because Russell got 66 pass attempts' worth of "opportunity" the year before is about as dumb as declaring Sanchez to be Russell v2.

I dont know about that. I think thats a pretty nice head start, come in, get acclimated, get a feel for the speed of the game by even getting the chance to start, get a feel for the life in the NFL. Then having an entire offseason to build on the experience, to me, sounds like a nice head start.

[Irish Jet]

Dismissing the similarities between Sanchez's rookie season and Russell's second season because Russell got 66 pass attempts' worth of "opportunity" the year before is about as dumb as declaring Sanchez to be Russell v2.

No it isn't because it's incredibly ignorant to go by pass attempts and you know it.

Practice, playbooks, systems. All the factors that come into the extra time he had to prepare for a 2nd season in the league opposed to Sanchez's first.

But yeah. Pass attempts...Gimme' a ****ing break.

Yeah, I guess Rivers, Brady and Romo were rookies when they became starters in the NFL.

What a stupid comment.

[villain_the_foe]

The article below, which I can't access talks about Greene as the real deal, and Sanchez as Jamarcus Russel 2.0... Someone has to have access to this that can post it.

Jamarcus Russell 2.0 huh? lol. I tell you, these guys are really lacking in the "Stories" department.

Sanchez has a QB rating of 94 in his "first ever" playoffs heading into the AFC championship game, Russell has never even been CLOSE to the playoffs and shows no signs of getting better. The Raiders 2nd and 3rd string has taken his job. Coach Kiffin decided he'd rather be fired instead of trying to build around this dude Russell, Cable benched him and even said publically that this dude isnt it. Dont get me wrong, I think Russell has talent. What he doesnt have is the mentality to really work at his craft in a way that the NFL demands, and just off of that fact he's NOTHING like Sanchez.

Russell has thrown a total of 18 TD's in three years, Sanchez thrown 12 TD's in 15 games his rookie year, with atleast 3 TD's Braylon dropped that were gimmies.

Someone should put a pistol in the hands who wrote that, so he can go kill himself.

[dbatesman]

No it isn't because it's incredibly ignorant to go by pass attempts and you know it.

Practice, playbooks, systems. All the factors that come into the extra time he had to prepare for a 2nd season in the league opposed to Sanchez's first.

But yeah. Pass attempts...Gimme' a ****ing break.

Yeah, I guess Rivers, Brady and Romo were rookies when they became starters in the NFL.

What a stupid comment.

If Russell is half as lazy as people like you would have us believe, all that practice and study shouldn't really matter.

[T0mShane]

Perhaps Sanchez's greatest strength is his apparent mental toughness, which is the Jamarcus Russell's biggest weakness. I don't think the two are comparable at all simply because of how the two are built mentally. I can't see Sanchez failing at this point at all. I don't know if he'll ever be league MVP, but I think he'll always be a winning QB in this league.

[Irish Jet]

If Russell is half as lazy as people like you would have us believe, all that practice and study shouldn't really matter.

Hence the term opportunity.

The fact of the matter is this. Russell had a chance to take advantage of such experience, Sanchez did not.

Like you said, the popular consent is that Russell is lazy. The popular consent is also that Sanchez is a hard worker. A fact like that comes into play in that scenario because I'd assume Sanchez would have made better of the opportunities presented to Russell.

[dbatesman]

Hence the term opportunity.

The fact of the matter is this. Russell had a chance to take advantage of such experience, Sanchez did not.

Like you said, the popular consent is that Russell is lazy. The popular consent is also that Sanchez is a hard worker. A fact like that comes into play in that scenario because I'd assume Sanchez would have made better of the opportunities presented to Russell.

So Russell's numbers are inflated by opportunities he never took advantage of?

I'm glad to see this discussion has turned into another debate between rational people who understand numbers and the hear-no-evil zealots who like to hold an apolitical Tea Party in every thread that points out how statistically bad Sanchez has been this season.

[Irish Jet]

So Russell's numbers are inflated by opportunities he never took advantage of?

NO!

I'm saying that if Sanchez was at that same stage in his career he would have been better. Simple. My God!

I'm glad to see this discussion has turned into another debate between rational people who understand numbers and the hear-no-evil zealots who like to hold an apolitical Tea Party in every thread that points out how statistically bad Sanchez has been this season

I know that Sanchez has been bad. Both statistically and in performance but he's not as bad as Russell . Not even close.

[CTM]

Oh yeah, responding to a guy who hates Mark Sanchez with a passion is me whining? Right.

Who hates sanchez?

I like him,.. I love that he was #2 in YPC last time i looked and henne was #31. I love that he dives for a first down instead of sliding for a punt and I like the he appears to enjoy playing football..

Liking a player or not has nothing to do with objectively looking at the way he's played. To me the fact that he look like something approach an NFL QB again is good news. I think the stress of not making the playoffs was killing the guy an could've had damaging long term effects, so the Colts gave him as much life there as they did our season

[CTM]

I really don't see why people are going Smails all over this article. If FO pulled a stat that said Sanchez had x in common with Peyton Manning's rookie season, half this board would be breaking out the Jergens and JO'ing for 12-15 minutes over the mention. Who cares if it's out of context? DVOA and comp % measure certain things and the fact that he's similar in a popular, measurable category to the biggest laughing stock in the league is worth a mention on the Internet. I seriously doubt Jefe is going to get wind of this and let it affect his game, especially considering how much crap he's already dealt with from larger media sources, (quite well mind you). It's an interesting statistical comparison that's worth a mention. If you're not a FO fan, how any reaction besides "slightly out of context, plus who gives a ****, we're in the Conference Championship this week," can come to mind is beyond me.

So you don't agree with the they don't even watch the games reaction?

Probably a less controversial way of saying what I've been trying to. well done

[jason423]

The whole basis behind their comparison is just something I dont agree with. The main basis behind the comparison is that both were 23 (Sanchez was actually 22 for the majority of the year, but ...), Russell's rookie year was really a non year because he missed camp (he did start a game and was at practice basically all year, but its the Raiders so is that really experience...), and they both had a pretty crummy completion %. It makes sense. I mean Troy Aikman was 23 as a true rookie and in fact has a birthday almost identical to Sanchez, but his completion percentage was 53% whereas Sanchez was 54%. Makes sense to disqualify that comparison. Elway was 23 but didnt start anywhere near 16 games so it makes sense to not use him. Plus he barely completed anything. Maybe if Sanchez only completed 48% of his passes and been even worse we would say that he is destined to be John Elway!

JMO, but if they were just looking for a legit comparison they would be looking at Kyle Orton in 2005. Same exact age. Turned 23 in November. True rookie on a good team that relied on the run. Completed just under 52% and had about the same amount of attempts and a slightly lower QB rating, which probably means a slightly lower DVOA. The problem is a guy like Kyle Orton means a reader shrugs their shoulders and says whatever. Throw in the biggest bust of the decade and it makes for a better story.

[CTM]

From the guys who don't even watch the game, interesting, even if all made up:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/cover-3/2010/cover-3-afc-championship

Cover-3: AFC Championship

by Doug Farrar

Run to Win?

New York Jets 10 at Indianapolis Colts 15

Week 16 -- December 27, 2009

No, that score isn't a misprint. In the spirit of various DVOA adjustments, we're taking the Curtis Painter Experience out of the equation and talking about the "Real Colts" versus the Jets they'll face in the AFC Championship game. Ostensibly, the marquee matchup would be the Jets' array of crazy blitzes against Peyton Manning's seemingly vanilla three-wide single-back stuff with all the pre-snap adjustments beneath the surface. But in reviewing the last time these teams faced off, another theme became obvious -- the Colts and Jets each spent time playing out of type, and it could happen again.

It was the Colts who started the game with wacky formations, while the Jets played as base a nickel defense as you'll ever see from Rex Ryan: a 4-2-5 with a simple deep safety. On their own 20-yard line on the first play of the game, Indy had three wide, with Dallas Clark split wide left (safety Eric Smith covering close), Darrelle Revis on Reggie Wayne in a tight zone shade on the other side, and Austin Collie in the right slot. Wayne motioned inside Collie pre-snap, which made Revis play off and move that zone side inside. The call was an end-around to Collie, but Smith easily broke off his coverage of Clark and made a dramatic tackle of Collie as the rookie receiver tried to jump over the defender. Loss of one, and a reset for the Colts. I'm not sure what they thought they'd see on that play, or if they just wanted to see how Revis would react to motion, but offensive coordinator Tom Moore might want to rip that one out of the playbook in preparation for Sunday.

Time to reign it in -- the Colts next went play-action out of a two-tight end set, with Manning rolling right and hitting Clark on a deep cross from left to right for 18 yards, under safety Kerry Rhodes. That was the second play in a row where you weren't seeing something out of the typical Colts oeuvre. In 2008, Indianapolis ranked 29th in two-tight end sets, and no team ran fewer plays listed as "outside pocket." In my mind, it was an indication of how much the Colts respected the Jets' defense that they didn't just come out banging the three-wide drum from the start -- they seemed to be feeling out Rex's defense and seeing where the holes and traps were.

The third play saw both teams in more recognizable formations -- the Colts in shotgun, three-wide, single-back, and the Jets in a four-man front, with strong-side slanted dual linebackers and man coverage underneath. Smith was on Clark in the left slot, with Revis locked on Wayne outside left. The call was a delay to Joseph Addai, and tight end Gijon Robinson did an outstanding job of dual-level blocking on the play, As Addai bounced outside right, Robinson first blocked end Shaun Ellis inside, then peeled off to take linebacker Bart Scott, who had shaded to the line pre-snap. Addai ran through the gap Robinson created when he took Scott outside, and gained seven yards before linebacker David Harris sifted left and took him down. (Side note: Nice blocking by Collie outside the stretch on Lito Sheppard -- that's been a notable aspect of Collie's play before.)

Three-wide for the Colts on second-and-3 with 12:59 left in the first quarter from their own 44-yard line, and Manning called for the tight ends to switch in formation pre-snap -- Clark from right to left slot, and Robinson from tight left to tight right tackle. The Jets switched their safeties at the same time in a man-under front, and Sheppard batted away the quick pass to Collie on the right side. Collie then set the Colts back five yards with an illegal formation penalty.

The Jets stacked the line and brought more man-under looks on second-and-8, and the Colts countered with slide protection to the right and Addai hitting it for six yards up the middle. Then, an empty backfield set on third-and-2, with the Jets bringing six to the line and a cluster of pre-snap pressure over right slot. Manning threw the quick out to Clark, who dropped the pass over tight coverage by Dwight Lowery. Clark gave Lowery a stutter from left slot, but Lowery followed him outside, and the Colts were forced to punt. The first and most overwhelming thing I noticed was that the Jets had no problem whatsoever with the concept of playing man underneath instead of backing off into floaty zones. There was the occasional disguised zone for which Ryan is renowned, and you'd see a straggling blitz once in a while, but the primary plan seemed to be using their great cover guys in the flats as the drive went on. Ryan was cautious at first, but it didn't last long.

Having seen specifics in the first drive, I was looking for trends on the second, more successful one. What I found interesting was that aside from a 13-yard quick out to Collie, every play that brought the Colts forward to their first touchdown was either a run or a Jets penalty. The Jets seemed to go a bit more vanilla, mirroring the Colts to a point -- if Indy went three-wide, the Jets would counter with man looks on the wideouts, and off coverage on the slot. If the Colts went with a tight twins formation, the Jets seemed to prefer bracket concepts; even if they went to Revis' side. But the real surprise here was that the Colts were able to get consistently productive runs by bouncing Addai outside in two-tight end sets, and sending Addai or Donald Brown up the middle as the line's zone slides washed out the front. Manning orchestrated more plays out of two-tight end sets than I'd ever seen from this team, and it was clear that the Colts had a plan for it -- augmenting a line that finished the season ranked 25th in Adjusted Line Yards, and splaying the Jets' defense across the field.

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The Colts also got a break on fourth-and-1 from the Jets' 31 with 7:35 left in the first quarter, when Brown couldn't penetrate the 46 front, but someone from Terry McAulay's crew caught Bart Scott's blatant tripping penalty. Manning then sent an errant throw to Wayne in the vicinity of Revis Island. On the next play, the Jets played pass on second-and-10 from the Jets' 21, and Manning handed the draw to Addai out of the shotgun up the middle as Indy's interior line split New York's front, and Addai blew in for a score. More and more, I was impressed by the Colts' ability to adapt; as the Jets focused on Indy's passing game despite the myriad under fronts, Manning saw and exploited vulnerabilities in the run defense. I don't think Ryan will play pass out of run defense-style fronts in the same way in the rematch.

The Delicate Sound of Thunder

Baltimore Ravens 3 at Indianapolis Colts 20

Divisional Round -- January 16, 2010

Speaking of atypical Indianapolis formations, let's focus on the Colts' defense, which is perhaps the most underestimated aspect of this postseason. Last week, when I wrote about the Ravens' offense and what they needed to do to win the Divisional round rematch, I spent too much time on Baltimore and not enough on the Indy defense. Part of the reason they're playing so well is a slightly increased blitz percentage under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. Of course, we have to take the word "slightly" in context. Based on the 2009 regular season data we've collected so far, the Colts rushed three just 3 percent of the time (down from 5.3 percent in 2008), rushed four 71 percent (down from a league-leading 84.8 percent in 2008), rushed five 20 percent (way up from a league-low 7.8 percent in 2008) and brought six or more 4 percent of the time -- twice as often as their league-low total of 2.1 percent last season. We'll talk more specifically about how those increased blitz numbers affect opposing offenses in a minute, but against the Ravens in the playoff win, the concept was overall defensive speed.

A penalty for an illegal block above the waist by L.J. Smith negated a 64-yard Jalen Parmele kick return after the Colts' first touchdown (and likely had Mike Tanier laughing his ass off), so the Ravens were stuck to start their first drive at their own 6-yard line. They came out with their staple six-man line, plus Todd Heap on the left side. The Colts answered with cornerback Jerraud Powers playing Derrick Mason tight on the offensive right side, and five in the middle (two defensive backs playing downhill) behind a four-man front. Clearly, Indy expected a run to one side, and the pursuit was blazingly fast after Joe Flacco handed off to Ray Rice around right end. Rice gained only one yard before linebacker Clint Session wrapped him up. Flacco then hit Mason for 16 in the zone, and followed with an end-around out of play action to take advantage of that fast pursuit. Clayton gained eight more yards, setting the Ravens up at their own 32-yard line. A fullback blast to Le'Ron McClain gained only two yards because Robert Mathis was so fast coming off the left edge, he was able to double back and make the tackle after rolling around that side.

After a quick 12-yard gain to Mason -- a short pass underneath the zone -- the Colts tightened up for a screen to Rice out of offset-I. Rice caught the ball about five yards behind the line of scrimmage and got up a good head of steam, but linebacker Gary Brackett shot back down to the line after dropping into coverage out of a nickel set, blew past guard Ben Grubbs, and tackled Rice for no gain. I've written about Clint Session's speed before, but Brackett's is just as exceptional. Between Mathis, Dwight Freeney, and the outside linebackers, I don't think there's a defense in the league with as much outside speed to the ball as this one. Rice was originally looking to bounce the screen outside, but Session was there waiting for him, and he had to cut in.

When last I reviewed the Baltimore offense against the Indy defense, I hypothesized that the Ravens should take advantage of the Colts' tendency to align their fronts to motion. The next play, on second-and-10 from the Baltimore 47 with 7:09 left in the first quarter, told me why I was full of beans. Heap motioned from left to right after McClain motioned into the backfield for an I-formation set. The Colts moved their line one step over, and the Ravens ran Rice the other way, heading outside left as Freeney took his spin move inside. Of course, the pursuit speed of linebacker Philip Wheeler negated the idea, and Rice gained only three. Flacco got a 27-yard pass to Mason over Kelvin Hayden on third-and-2, but the Ravens ran into another problem -- literally -- as they got closer to the goal line.

Rice tried a couple of nifty cutbacks, but there was always someone there who had anticipated his intent and was in a big hurry to stop him. Flacco converted a third-and-2 at the Colts' 8-yard line with a sneak. Then, a two-yard gain by Willis McGahee, which was almost a five-yard loss as Freeney just about had him in the backfield. Perhaps afraid of that potential yardage loss, Baltimore went with pass plays -- both incompletions -- on second- and third-and-goal. They would have to settle for another field goal, and those would be the last points they'd see in this match.

Why Adjusting to the A-Gap Blitz is a Good Idea

New York Jets 10 at Indianapolis Colts 15 (Part Deux)

Week 16 -- December 27, 2009

I didn't have a lot of time after those first two wrap-ups, but I wanted to go back and share a few notes about the Jets' pass protection and schematic foibles against one particular type of blitz in their Week 16 game. Mathis and Session were inactive, but Freeney picked up two sacks. The first came with 2:00 minutes left in the first half. New York had a shotgun, empty backfield set, and the Colts brought six to the line in a dual A-gap blitz with Brackett and linebacker Ramon Humber. Freeney shot off the right edge untouched, and I have to think that either someone didn't adjust the protection or that Sanchez had a one-read-and-throw route to the right side and he just blew it by scanning to the middle. Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson blocked inside to stem the tide of the blitz, and Freeney came through untouched. Seems to me that someone might have benefited from a time out there, but that's what opposing lines have to adjust to now -- the Colts are using all that speed in blitz mode a bit more often, and it has made them a more effective and unpredictable defense.

The second Freeney sack happened with 6:04 left in the third quarter; it was the final Jets offensive play before the Painter Experience began. Despite that fact that I am a huge Rex Ryan fan, I have a bone to pick with the Jets' coaching staff on this one. Once again, the Colts went with the six-man front, dual A-gap blitz. Once again, the Jets were five wide, though Sanchez was under center this time, which limited his ability to evade pressure even further. The Jets were down by five points, driving into Colts territory, and they knew full well that if they blocked the blitz inside, Freeney was going to tee off on Sanchez like there was no tomorrow.

Of course, that's exactly what happened. Once again, the Jets pinched inside on the blitz. Once again, Freeney came through untouched. Once again, Sanchez was on the ground. Duh, guys. The Colts expect to have Freeney and Mathis healthy for this game -- add in the potential for Brackett and Session to head up the A-gaps together, and the Jets are looking at a recipe for quarterback disaster that they'd best adjust to this time around. And of all the teams not to adjust to a dual A-gap blitz!

[CTM]

The whole basis behind their comparison is just something I dont agree with. The main basis behind the comparison is that both were 23 (Sanchez was actually 22 for the majority of the year, but ...), Russell's rookie year was really a non year because he missed camp (he did start a game and was at practice basically all year, but its the Raiders so is that really experience...), and they both had a pretty crummy completion %. It makes sense. I mean Troy Aikman was 23 as a true rookie and in fact has a birthday almost identical to Sanchez, but his completion percentage was 53% whereas Sanchez was 54%. Makes sense to disqualify that comparison. Elway was 23 but didnt start anywhere near 16 games so it makes sense to not use him. Plus he barely completed anything. Maybe if Sanchez only completed 48% of his passes and been even worse we would say that he is destined to be John Elway!

JMO, but if they were just looking for a legit comparison they would be looking at Kyle Orton in 2005. Same exact age. Turned 23 in November. True rookie on a good team that relied on the run. Completed just under 52% and had about the same amount of attempts and a slightly lower QB rating, which probably means a slightly lower DVOA. The problem is a guy like Kyle Orton means a reader shrugs their shoulders and says whatever. Throw in the biggest bust of the decade and it makes for a better story.

Sure there's an element to that, but saying Sanchez projects as Kyle Orton might be more depressing then Jamarus Russel frankly.. That puts us back in the Chad pennington zone of ineptitude

they also ignore orton because of his draft status probably

[JustInFudge]

Sure there's an element to that, but saying Sanchez projects as Kyle Orton might be more depressing then Jamarus Russel frankly.. That puts us back in the Chad pennington zone of ineptitude

they also ignore orton because of his draft status probably

With all due respect, I think we've surpassed Chadwick zone reaching the AFC Champ game, something Chad would never do no matter what team surrounded him. Chad doesnt extend and make the TD play nor does he pick up any of those long 3rd downs in the 2nd half.

We'd have lost 4sho with Chadwick.

[CTM]

With all due respect, I think we've surpassed Chadwick zone reaching the AFC Champ game, something Chad would never do no matter what team surrounded him. Chad doesnt extend and make the TD play nor does he pick up any of those long 3rd downs in the 2nd half.

We'd have lost 4sho with Chadwick.

Hmm.. There was definitely plays in the Cinn game that chad couldn't have made, so you definitely have a point.. But, i really think that whats at work here is a bit of matchup luck. From Cinn (of late) to SD to Indy, we have faced three teams that really can't stop the run and in the latter two, can't run the ball.. Both of this plays right into our can't pas the ball but can't be passed on thing we have going..

The last decent run defense we faced was Atlanta and we struggled all day against them on offense. I'd expect similar had we faced Baltimore or MN..

nothing wrong with a little luck though, just not something that will extend into multiple years of contention..

[Jetsfan80]

From the guys who don't even watch the game, interesting, even if all made up:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/cover-3/2010/cover-3-afc-championship

That article sure dimmed my confidence heading in. What I took from it is that the Colts offense adapts to the defense better than any team in the league (not altogether surprising), while their defense is great at exploiting inexperienced QB's (a bit more surprising and VERY scary).

If our running game isn't beastly from the start AND/OR we are unable to keep the Colts from taking an early 2-possession lead, its over. Period. Schotty and Callahan have to be at the top of their game. A SLOW START ON OFFENSE IS UNACCEPTABLE IF WE WANT TO WIN.

[JustInFudge]

Hmm.. There was definitely plays in the Cinn game that chad couldn't have made, so you definitely have a point.. But, i really think that whats at work here is a bit of matchup luck. From Cinn (of late) to SD to Indy, we have faced three teams that really can't stop the run and in the latter two, can't run the ball.. Both of this plays right into our can't pas the ball but can't be passed on thing we have going..

The last decent run defense we faced was Atlanta and we struggled all day against them on offense. I'd expect similar had we faced Baltimore or MN..

nothing wrong with a little luck though, just not something that will extend into multiple years of contention..

I think the Jets lucked out even bigger just by sheer fate that they faced two teams that have just as bad if not worse of a history in SD, and Cinci. lol. Only a couple of other teams would be as lucky.

And your post wreaks of Penningtology.

[CTM]

I think the Jets lucked out even bigger just by sheer fate that they faced two teams that have just as bad if not worse of a history in SD, and Cinci. lol. Only a couple of other teams would be as lucky.

And your post wreaks of Penningtology.

What!

you miserable sack of ****

[NJ]

With all due respect, I think we've surpassed Chadwick zone reaching the AFC Champ game, something Chad would never do no matter what team surrounded him. Chad doesnt extend and make the TD play nor does he pick up any of those long 3rd downs in the 2nd half.

We'd have lost 4sho with Chadwick.

That is a big 10-4.

The 2x comeback player of the year was not known for facilitating an inordinate amount of 3rd down conversions or really anything worthwhile against defenses that won more games than they lost - and it's unfortunately those sort of teams you meet up with in the play-offs.

I'll gleefully gamble hope on Sanchez's ability to win big games even though his statistical proofing is scant at the moment. It's this newfound moxy combined with a well thought out ground game that brings sincere expectancy for great things in the future. Then when you consider our staff really knows how to run a defense ...

[JustInFudge]

That is a big 10-4.

The 2x comeback player of the year was not known for facilitating an inordinate amount of 3rd down conversions or really anything worthwhile against defenses that won more games than they lost - and it's unfortunately those sort of teams you meet up with in the play-offs.

I'll gleefully gamble hope on Sanchez's ability to win big games even though his statistical proofing is scant at the moment. It's this newfound moxy combined with a well thought out ground game that brings sincere expectancy for great things in the future. Then when you consider our staff really knows how to run a defense ...

Yep, pretty much. Forgive CTM, he's a Penningtologist.

[CTM]

That is a big 10-4.

The 2x comeback player of the year was not known for facilitating an inordinate amount of 3rd down conversions or really anything worthwhile against defenses that won more games than they lost - and it's unfortunately those sort of teams you meet up with in the play-offs.

I'll gleefully gamble hope on Sanchez's ability to win big games even though his statistical proofing is scant at the moment. It's this newfound moxy combined with a well thought out ground game that brings sincere expectancy for great things in the future. Then when you consider our staff really knows how to run a defense ...

Yep, pretty much. Forgive CTM, he's a Penningtologist.

SOB.. now you make me decide between letting it slide (which was my first inclination) or pointing out the obvious hole in both of your arguments. (And in the process being a doosh to someone that isn't an infected pustule on the ass of JN like you and Kleck)

[Aten]

And the article is comparing Sanchez's rookie season to Russell's 2nd year. Its not very valid.

I don't understand. The article compares one quarterback's performance over the course of a season with another quarterback's performance over the course of another season. How is that categorically not valid?

[NJ]

SOB.. now you make me decide between letting it slide (which was my first inclination) or pointing out the obvious hole in both of your arguments. (And in the process being a doosh to someone that isn't an infected pustule on the ass of JN like you and Kleck)

Pick'em apart bro - I'm confident in my numbers

[dbatesman]

I don't understand. The article compares one quarterback's performance over the course of a season with another quarterback's performance over the course of another season. How is that categorically not valid?

Because Russell had 15 extra games' worth of opportunities to get better. He didn't take advantage of them, but they completely invalidate any comparison to Sanchez. Especially because Russell is a fat sack of crap and Sanchez is THE SON OF A FIREFIGHTER!!!!!111one

[CTM]

Pick'em apart bro - I'm confident in my numbers

ok, how about the fact that we haven't faced even an average defense up to this point, thereby rendering the Chad can't beat good defenses point moot.

[Jetsfan80]

ok, how about the fact that we haven't faced even an average defense up to this point, thereby rendering the Chad can't beat good defenses point moot.

Oh God, not this again. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England. Look up Chad's career numbers against those teams and come back to me.

[JustInFudge]

I don't understand. The article compares one quarterback's performance over the course of a season with another quarterback's performance over the course of another season. How is that categorically not valid?

I just went back and reread. Didnt see this the first time for some reason...For Sanchez, we're limiting our sample to players who were first-year starters.

I didnt think they recognized it and were writing this as if both players were rookies. Categorically it makes sense, but from a "naked eye" perspective if you will, I think its crazy to think Sanchez will digress in his 2nd year starting the way Russell did from 08 to 09.

ok, how about the fact that we haven't faced even an average defense up to this point, thereby rendering the Chad can't beat good defenses point moot.

Wow. I never thought I'd see the day.

[CTM]

Oh God, not this again. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England. Look up Chad's career numbers against those teams and come back to me.

Right and we've played Cinn, SD and Indy up till now.. three bad defenses .. my point isn't that we should have chad now, it's just that we've had some good matchups up till now..

[JustInFudge]

Oh God, not this again. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England. Look up Chad's career numbers against those teams and come back to me.

CTM is part of the CWO. Chad World Order.

[serphnx]

SOB.. now you make me decide between letting it slide (which was my first inclination) or pointing out the obvious hole in both of your arguments. (And in the process being a doosh to someone that isn't an infected pustule on the ass of JN like you and Kleck)

The internetz is serious business. I guess it would be appropriate if I posted one of those poster/.gif internet meme thingies for this, but, meh, I don't do that. You'll have to settle for this emoticon instead, something I also almost never do:

[CTM]

The internetz is serious business. I guess it would be appropriate if I posted one of those poster/.gif internet meme thingies for this, but, meh, I don't do that. You'll have to settle for this emoticon instead, something I also almost never do:

lol.. i don't take anything serious here, except when i do.

But that wasn't one of those times. I just wanted to call jif and kleck and infected pustule on the ass of JN, and it seemed like as good opportunity as any..

[Vicious89x]

ok, how about the fact that we haven't faced even an average defense up to this point, thereby rendering the Chad can't beat good defenses point moot.

I never thought I'd ever see this written, ever.

[CTM]

I never thought I'd ever see this written, ever.

lol.. i'm afraid to see what that image is..

[jason423]

Sure there's an element to that, but saying Sanchez projects as Kyle Orton might be more depressing then Jamarus Russel frankly.. That puts us back in the Chad pennington zone of ineptitude

they also ignore orton because of his draft status probably

But I can live the Orton comparison because there is a realistic basis to it. People that want to cling to some crazy idea that Sanchez has had a great season simply because he lucked into a good team are way offbase. My beef is simply because FO constantly cherry picks (or at least seems to pick) some crazy ways of looking at something.

Seanmac was defending the article over at TJB and the criteria he explained was that it all had to do with age and experience so nothing had to do with draft status. Basically from the sounds of it they took a database of QBs in their first season and placed a filter on it that said "23" and completion % above 53% and below 54%. Maybe they threw a filter for attempts in there as well. Its just such a narrow way of finding a comparable player. You have to give a range of players over a range of numbers. The fact is most of these guys who stink as a rookie were all the age of 23 when they played. Some were better and some were worse than Mark. Some turned out to be good. Some turned out to bust. I think its just a very poor way to try to make an argument about a player regardless of who the player is and what team he plays for when they make it the way they did about Sanchez and Russell.

If they wanted to do a comparison based on attempts, year, and compl%, QB rat, etc...they could have made a much more realistic argument by saying he tracks the rookie years of Orton, David Woodley, and Bruce Gradkowski. They all suck too, but they just make a reader shrug their shoulders and say whatever, but at least that is objective. Russell is a name simply cherry picked because he is beyond awful and it makes idiots like us spend the time debating it.