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The Draft Equation


HessStation

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Year in and year out we find the top teams in the NFL are the ones who can find premier talent not only in the 1st round but also, and maybe even more importantly, in the mid to late rounds. The trick is to find the healthy balance between the two. Sure, your first imperative is the need to hit a home run in the first. But it’s the teams that usually strike gold on the second day and in UDFA’s that find themselves in the later rounds of the playoffs competing for Super Bowl rings. Look no further the Saints and Colts in 2009/10. Where you can find their elite players may be first round picks but that the team is packed with a number of premier mid to late round picks as well.

So to break it down:

Step 1: Nail it w/ your 1st round pick

Ok, we get it…

-The Saints with Reggie Bush, Robert Meachem, Sedrick Ellis, Will Smith, Malcolm Jenkins and Jammal Brown (though injured in 2009).

-The Colts with Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai and Dwight Freeney and Donald Brown.

But although there is a vast importance on getting that 1st pick right the Colts didn’t even have a 1st rounder in 2004 and 2008. 2005 pick Marlin Jackson has yet to live up to expectations and 2007 pick, Anthony Gonzalez has been riddled with injuries.

For the Saints, with Jonathan Sullivan, Donte Stallworth, and no pick in 2000, they’ve missed on a few as well.

Now of course, the one thing you must take into account is Free Agency, where the Saints have found their riches in Day 1 Draft talent from other teams with Drew Brees and Darren Sharper, former second round picks and Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma, former first round picks.

But with all that said finding talent in later round should be considered just as if not more important. On to Step 2:

The Colts could not have had such a strong season without their two lethal, hard hitting, safeties, Antoine Bethea (former 6th round pick) and Melvin Bullitt (un-drafted).

Clint Session (4th round pick) and Phillip Wheeller (3rd round) both had strong years and their two best wide receivers by years end were arguably Pierre Garcon (6th round) and Austin Collie (4th round). Robert Mathis is a former 5th rounder and Ryan Diem a former 4th to boot.

The Saints, possibly, don’t win a ring without the likes of Marques Colston (7th round) Pierre Thomas and Jonathan Goodwin (un-drafted) Carl Nicks (5th round) Jermon Bushrod and Jahri Evans (both in the 4th round). Roman Harper and Jonathan Stinchcomb were both 2nd round picks.

Now, on to the Jets; dating back to as far as 2000 with Sean Ellis (in the 1st round) the Jets have found success in the draft that is paying dividends today.

So Step 1 (strike gold in the 1st round): Check

-It starts w/ the golden ticket, Mark Sanchez. A majority of the Jets success will ride on his arm next year but it looks as though they may finally have their QB

-Darrelle Revis, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, and Nick Mangold, are all Pro Bowl to All Pro talent that make up the core of the team.

-Dustin Keller and Bryan Thomas are also solid starters, Keller could possibly turn into a star.

Step 2 mid to late round) Check

Shonn Greene (3rd round) Eric Smith (3rd round) Brad Smith (4th round) hopefully Leon Washington (4th round) Kerry Rhodes (4th round) Jerricho Cotchery (3rd round) Sione Pouha (3rd round) Dwight Lowery (4th round) and Mike DeVito (UDFA) Wallace Wright (UDFA) all make up a strong nucleus to the team.

You can also add to the mix David Harris, former 2nd round pick

Safe to say the Jets have done an excellent job drafting throughout the last couple of years. Now for the flops...it happens to EVERY team. For every Vernon Gholson there is Jonathan Sullivan (Saints) and Marlin Jackson (Colts).

And what of no 3rd and 4th round pick this year? The Saints didn’t have a 2nd or 3rd last year and they faired just fine in 2009.

But with that said, there is no more wiggle room for mistakes. The Jets must hit on both their first two picks and find at least, one diamond in the rough, with that 5th, 6th, and/or 7th. It’s what the best teams in the league do every year.

So for me, I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled even through that second day of coverage and into un-drafted free agency. Not only to see who will be the next Nick Mangold, Darrelle Revis or David Harris. But maybe even more importantly, who will be the Jets next Pierre Thomas, Pierre Garcon, Steve Breaston, Chris Kemoeatu, or Mike Devito.

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Nice post, but we are going to be hampered signing our fa this year. so the draft has just become that more important. we need to hit at least one starter that is close to revis (as far as talent), a starter like Keller, and then some nice back up players. If we do that we have a chance to have a repeat or better next year.

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wow! that's LLLOOOOOONNNNGGGG post! but a good one!

LOL, yeah man, thanks. I had the thought in my head and started typing. Next thing I knew I was writing War & Peace II. But I had to finish the thought, however long-winded it ended up being. But there is a good point in there, somewhere, I think. Possibly.

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