rick34125 Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 The New York Times Fifth Down Blog March 17, 2010, 7:26 am N.F.L. Draft: Which Teams Build Wisely? By CHASE STUART Chase Stuart writes for the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog. The future of many teams will change in a little over a month, when the 2010 draft begins. Talking heads like to say that good teams build through the draft, and there’s a lot of truth in that: Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis have consistently fielded strong teams over the last decade relying largely on the talents of their scouting departments. On the other hand, look at the Super Bowl champion Saints: Drew Brees, Jonathan Vilma, Darren Sharper and Jeremy Shockey were drafted by different teams, and Pierre Thomas was signed as an undrafted free agent. So which teams have mostly built through the draft? Which through trades and free-agent signings? Using the Pro-Football-Reference.com Approximate Value system, I went through the 2009 season and saw what percentage of a team’s approximate value came from players it drafted. The Jaguars had the highest percentage, at 82%. Nearly all of the big contributors for Jacksonville came via the draft, which may have more to do with the team’s fiscal operations than its ability to scout players. On the other hand, the Browns were at 40%. Joe Thomas was a great pick (and Jerome Harrison may turn into one), but Cleveland’s problems with the draft have hurt the “new Browns” since their re-entry into the league. This week’s trading of Brady Quinn is a shining example of Cleveland picks gone bad. The table below shows what percentage of a team’s approximate value came from players it drafted. The first line next to each team lists three of the more valuable drafted players on that team’s 2009 roster. The second line shows three of the most valuable players acquired through other means. JAX 82.2% David Garrard Maurice Jones-Drew Mike Sims-Walker Torry Holt Gerald Alexander Sean Considine PIT 72.6% LaMarr Woodley Ben Roethlisberger Rashard Mendenhall James Harrison James Farrior Justin Hartwig GNB 71.7% Aaron Rodgers Donald Driver Greg Jennings Charles Woodson Ryan Grant Cullen Jenkins BAL 71.5% Ray Rice Ray Lewis Joe Flacco Derrick Mason Kelly Gregg Domonique Foxworth CAR 70.2% Jon Beason Julius Peppers DeAngelo Williams Tyler Brayton Damione Lewis Hollis Thomas IND 70.1% Peyton Manning Dallas Clark Reggie Wayne Anthony Collins Jeff Saturday Gary Brackett SFO 70.0% Patrick Willis Frank Gore Vernon Davis Justin Smith Takeo Spikes Aubrayo Franklin ARI 67.0% Larry Fitzgerald Darnell Dockett Adrian Wilson Kurt Warner Clark Haggans Chike Okeafor DAL 63.8% Jay Ratliff DeMarcus Ware Jason Witten Tony Romo Miles Austin Leonard Davis PHI 62.7% DeSean Jackson Donovan McNabb Trent Cole Asante Samuel Jason Peters Nick Cole TEN 61.9% Chris Johnson Michael Roos Vince Young Kyle Vanden Bosch Tony Brown Kevin Mawae CHI 61.7% Devin Hester Matt Forte Lance Briggs Jay Cutler Frank Omiyale Roberto Garza CIN 61.6% Leon Hall Andrew Whitworth Carson Palmer Dhani Jones Cedric Benson Bobbie Williams HOU 60.9% Andre Johnson Brian Cushing Mario Williams Matt Schaub Chris Myers Antonio Smith NWE 60.2% Tom Brady Logan Mankins Vince Wilfork Wes Welker Randy Moss Adalius Thomas SEA 59.6% Aaron Curry John Carlson Ray Willis Patrick Kerney Deon Grant Matt Hasselbeck TAM 58.9% Ronde Barber Aqib Talib Tanard Jackson Kellen Winslow Jr. Chris Hovan Jimmy Wilkerson NYG 57.9% Steve Smith Kevin Boss David Diehl Eli Manning Shaun O'Hara Kareem McKenzie ATL 57.7% Roddy White Matt Ryan Jonathan Babineaux Tony Gonzalez John Abraham Michael Turner OAK 57.1% Nnamdi Asomugha Zach Miller Kirk Morrison Gerard Warren Greg Ellis Richard Seymour BUF 56.7% Aaron Schobel Chris Kelsay Jairus Byrd Marcus Stroud Fred Jackson Terrell Owens NYJ 56.0% Darrelle Revis David Harris Nick Mangold Bart Scott Alan Faneca Thomas Jones SDG 55.1% Vincent Jackson Marcus McNeill Darren Sproles Philip Rivers Antonio Gates Kris Dielman STL 52.7% Steven Jackson James Laurinaitis Leonard Little James Hall James Butler Jason Brown DET 50.4% Calvin Johnson Jeff Backus Kevin Smith Larry Foote Julian Peterson Will Peterson MIN 50.2% Adrian Peterson Kevin Williams Sidney Rice Jared Allen Brett Favre Steve Hutchinson MIA 50.0% Jake Long Vernon Carey Chad Henne Ricky Williams Randy Starks Joey Porter NOR 49.6% Jahri Evans Jon Stinchcomb Marques Colston Drew Brees Jonathan Vilma Darren Sharper WAS 49.5% Jason Campbell Brian Orakpo LaRon Landry Andre Carter London Fletcher Santana Moss KAN 43.4% Jamaal Charles Tamba Hali Glenn Dorsey Demorrio Williams Mike Brown Matt Cassel DEN 41.1% Ryan Clady Elvis Dumervil Brandon Marshall Kyle Orton Brian Dawkins Champ Bailey CLE 40.4% Joe Thomas Jerome Harrison Kamerion Wimbley Josh Cribbs Shaun Rogers David Bowens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LWC611 Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Thanks for the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jets Voice of Reason Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 I love our drafting philosophy. Yes, we sacrifice the depth picks, but we consistently bring in pro-bowl caliber players. At least 2 elite players each draft. The obvious glaring exception being Gholston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 I don't like this they should consider undrafted free agents as players picked up by the scouts just like drafted players such as the Cowboys with Tony Romo and Miles Austin, and also should consider guys traded for like Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers as drafted players as they were traded for because of the initial scouts made those trades during the draft for draft eligible players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiF Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Very confused by this... They list 3 of our drafted contributers but left out a couple of extremely important pieces...DBrick, Sanchez, Ellis, J-Co and to a certain extent Leon, Greene, Smith, Thomas. But what I really dont understand is that our group has the best corner in the league, the best Center in the league and quite possibly the emerging best ILB in the league and we were ranked pretty low. Can someone help shed some light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodWearsAGrayHoodie Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Very confused by this... They list 3 of our drafted contributers but left out a couple of extremely important pieces...DBrick, Sanchez, Ellis, J-Co and to a certain extent Leon, Greene, Smith, Thomas. But what I really dont understand is that our group has the best corner in the league, the best Center in the league and quite possibly the emerging best ILB in the league and we were ranked pretty low. Can someone help shed some light? They only list three player for each team. No reason why they should list more than that for the Jets. As for the ranking --the Jets are also have been very active in FA. **** Overall this is just a bunch of sound & fury signifying nothing. Jax doesn't get a prize for "having the best draft" The best built team this year was the Saints. It doesn't matter if the players were drafted, FA, UDFA, picked up off the waiver wire or traded for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Very confused by this... They list 3 of our drafted contributers but left out a couple of extremely important pieces...DBrick, Sanchez, Ellis, J-Co and to a certain extent Leon, Greene, Smith, Thomas. But what I really dont understand is that our group has the best corner in the league, the best Center in the league and quite possibly the emerging best ILB in the league and we were ranked pretty low. Can someone help shed some light? The percentage is simply the percentage of the roster that was acquired via the draft, if I am reading the article correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiF Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 The percentage is simply the percentage of the roster that was acquired via the draft, if I am reading the article correctly. Gotcha. I thought they were ranking the percentage based on contribution from the players they drafted. This is just how much of their team is built through the draft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodWearsAGrayHoodie Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 The percentage is simply the percentage of the roster that was acquired via the draft, if I am reading the article correctly. You are not reading the article correctly. PFR assigns each player a value (their methodology for assigning those values IMHO is quite suspect). This the % of the team value that was drafted, based on their valuation of the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 You are not reading the article correctly. PFR assigns each player a value (their methodology for assigning those values IMHO is quite suspect). This the % of the team value that was drafted, based on their valuation of the players. So they are saying the Jaguars got significantly more value out of David Garrard, MJD and Mike Sims-Walker than the Jets got out of Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold and David Harris? That is a brutally suspect methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodWearsAGrayHoodie Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 So they are saying the Jaguars got significantly more value out of David Garrard, MJD and Mike Sims-Walker than the Jets got out of Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold and David Harris? That is a brutally suspect methodology. While their methodolgy is quite suspect. They are not saying that at all. They are saying that 82% of the production that came from the Jax roster came from drafted players. On the other extreme 60% of the production that Cle got came from non-drafted players. It is their opinion that 56% of the production of the Jets comes from drafted players and 44% come from non-drafted players. Absolutely no camparision if one teams drafted players are better than another. The flip side of this is not Jax is good with drafting, but horrible in trades and FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiF Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 While their methodolgy is quite suspect. They are not saying that at all. They are saying that 82% of the production that came from the Jax roster came from drafted players. On the other extreme 60% of the production that Cle got came from non-drafted players. It is their opinion that 56% of the production of the Jets comes from drafted players and 44% come from non-drafted players. Absolutely no camparision if one teams drafted players are better than another. The flip side of this is not Jax is good with drafting, but horrible in trades and FA. Well then this methodolgy is always going to favor teams that draft offensively because its easier to equate value and production hence why the top teams listed in this research have at least 2 offensive players listed where we have zero. And saying the Jags draft well is interesting. Maybe before about 6 years ago, but nowadays...Derrick Harvey, Quinton Groves, Reggie Nelson, Mercedes Lewis, Matt Jones, Khalif Barnes, Reggie Williams...and even Eugene Monroe to an extent have all underacheived in major ways. But you are spot on when saying they are probably the worst in the league when it comes to FA additions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Well then this methodolgy is always going to favor teams that draft offensively because its easier to equate value and production hence why the top teams listed in this research have at least 2 offensive players listed where we have zero. And saying the Jags draft well is interesting. Maybe before about 6 years ago, but nowadays...Derrick Harvey, Quinton Groves, Reggie Nelson, Mercedes Lewis, Matt Jones, Khalif Barnes, Reggie Williams...and even Eugene Monroe to an extent have all underacheived in major ways. But you are spot on when saying they are probably the worst in the league when it comes to FA additions. This thing is just silly. You're right. Saying the Jags draft well because 82% of their production comes from drafted players isn't remotely correct. Its just saying that 82% of their crappy production comes from drafted players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rick34125 Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 While their methodolgy is quite suspect. They are not saying that at all. They are saying that 82% of the production that came from the Jax roster came from drafted players. On the other extreme 60% of the production that Cle got came from non-drafted players. It is their opinion that 56% of the production of the Jets comes from drafted players and 44% come from non-drafted players. Absolutely no camparision if one teams drafted players are better than another. The flip side of this is not Jax is good with drafting, but horrible in trades and FA. it's just saying that they don't use free agency and trades very much. probably because they are a small market team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GodWearsAGrayHoodie Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 it's just saying that they don't use free agency and trades very much. probably because they are a small market team. This ain't MLB, where the Yankees can spend as much on player as the Marlins spend on the entire roster. There is a salary cap and Jax has enough revenues to spend to the cap if they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rick34125 Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 This thing is just silly. You're right. Saying the Jags draft well because 82% of their production comes from drafted players isn't remotely correct. Its just saying that 82% of their crappy production comes from drafted players. The article is just saying how NFL teams were built using their adjusted player values. What i found interesting, if you note the playoff teams from last year, is that trading and free agent signing has as much importance as drafting well. I remember in 2007 when the Jets traded up to get Revis and Harris how much criticism they took for coming out with so few draftees. And they were criticized again in 2008 when they made a big splash in free agency. Constant ridicule that good teams build through the draft. I think the bottom line is obvious in the NFL today that all 3 methods of building a team are important for a successful team. A team can't just build through the draft anymore than it can just through free agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 This ain't MLB, where the Yankees can spend as much on player as the Marlins spend on the entire roster. There is a salary cap and Jax has enough revenues to spend to the cap if they want. They choose not to though. People thought some owners might go nuts and try to buy a championship in an uncapped year. The real concern in an uncapped year is teams shedding salary and spending as little as they want. Some teams have gutted their payrolls this offseason and have no intention of replacing that money with new talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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