Early Lines

[The Pickman]

The Jets O/U for wins is 9.5

The AFC East Division Odds look like this:

Jets +130

Patriots +135

Dolphins +300

Bills +2000

Early Week One Line:

Ravens +3 at Jets

Discuss....

[GMJohnson]

The Jets O/U for wins is 9.5

The AFC East Division Odds look like this:

Jets +130

Patriots +135

Dolphins +300

Bills +2000

Early Week One Line:

Ravens +3 at Jets

Discuss....

Wow. Looks like Vegas is begging the public to take the Over @ 9.5. Then again, they have them as slight favorites for the division, mixed signals? I doubt any AFCE team wins more than 10 games, the schedules are brutal and the teams are basically even matched. Dunno whats gonna happen, but based on those lines, I expect the public to lose while Vegas collects. As usual.

[Maxman]

Wow. Looks like Vegas is begging the public to take the Over @ 9.5. Then again, they have them as slight favorites for the division, mixed signals? I doubt any AFCE team wins more than 10 games, the schedules are brutal and the teams are basically even matched. Dunno whats gonna happen, but based on those lines, I expect the public to lose while Vegas collects. As usual.

Totally agree with the as usual part. Some lines seem so enticing. Hindsight works out to be a real b*tch though!

[villain_the_foe]

Wow. Looks like Vegas is begging the public to take the Over @ 9.5. Then again, they have them as slight favorites for the division, mixed signals? I doubt any AFCE team wins more than 10 games, the schedules are brutal and the teams are basically even matched. Dunno whats gonna happen, but based on those lines, I expect the public to lose while Vegas collects. As usual.

I never understood this because I dont gamble. Are they saying that the Jets are going to win the division?

[GMJohnson]

I never understood this because I dont gamble. Are they saying that the Jets are going to win the division?

I dabble in the spotsbooks, but Im no expert. Unless Im mistaken, the number (+130) represents the return on a 100 bet w/ the Jets. IMO there are two ways to interpret that. One is that Vegas feels the Jets have the best shot of winning the division. The other way is that Vegas doesnt necessarily think NY has the best shot, but they expect the public to bet on them heavily, and they want to minimize the risk of of taking a big hit if NY comes through. If I knew which it was, I could make a boatload of money, but I definitely wont touch 9.5 wins, that number seems out of line with public perception, like theyre trying to get people to take the over, aka a TRAP.

[jgb]

I dabble in the spotsbooks, but Im no expert. Unless Im mistaken, the number (+130) represents the return on a 100 bet w/ the Jets. IMO there are two ways to interpret that. One is that Vegas feels the Jets have the best shot of winning the division. The other way is that Vegas doesnt necessarily think NY has the best shot, but they expect the public to bet on them heavily, and they want to minimize the risk of of taking a big hit if NY comes through. If I knew which it was, I could make a boatload of money, but I definitely wont touch 9.5 wins, that number seems out of line with public perception, like theyre trying to get people to take the over, aka a TRAP.

vegas sets the line not on what they think will happen but on what odds will cause even money to flow in for each side of a bet. half the people win, half the people lose, vegas keeps the juice either way. vegas doesn't gamble - you do.

[GMJohnson]

vegas sets the line not on what they think will happen but on what odds will cause even money to flow in for each side of a bet. half the people win, half the people lose, vegas keeps the juice either way. vegas doesn't gamble - you do.

Generally speaking, yes, I'd agree with you. But there are instances where Vegas will knowingly set a line that will cause the public to bet overwhelmingly in one direction or the other. Either that or they will leave a line in place despite 70+ percent of the action going in one direction, if thier internals are telling them the public is wrong.

IMO the public will bet heavily on the Jets over 9.5. Im thinking 70-80% of the action goes on the over. If the line doesnt move, that'll tell me that Vegas thinks the public is wrong and that 9.5 was a trap #. More importantly, it tells me that Vegas thnks NY is overrated, and I'll be betting against them every week to start the season. If the line does move, Im thinking Vegas is worried they set a bad number, and Im pissed b/c I missed out on a chance to get a bargain. Its too early to tell at this point though, Ill never bet a dime until a Week before the season starts.

[Klecko73isGod]

Generally speaking, yes, I'd agree with you. But there are instances where Vegas will knowingly set a line that will cause the public to bet overwhelmingly in one direction or the other. Either that or they will leave a line in place despite 70+ percent of the action going in one direction, if thier internals are telling them the public is wrong.

IMO the public will bet heavily on the Jets over 9.5. Im thinking 70-80% of the action goes on the over. If the line doesnt move, that'll tell me that Vegas thinks the public is wrong and that 9.5 was a trap #. More importantly, it tells me that Vegas thnks NY is overrated, and I'll be betting against them every week to start the season. If the line does move, Im thinking Vegas is worried they set a bad number, and Im pissed b/c I missed out on a chance to get a bargain. Its too early to tell at this point though, Ill never bet a dime until a Week before the season starts.

Don't bother with Vegas, I'll gladly take your action.

[GMJohnson]

Don't bother with Vegas, I'll gladly take your action.

Yeah, I just left the AFC East thread, you guys can make a killing w/ your 11-12-13 win predictions. Or not lol.

[Klecko73isGod]

Yeah, I just left the AFC East thread, you guys can make a killing w/ your 11-12-13 win predictions. Or not lol.

I was actually referring to your extremely naive opinions on how lines work, not your ridiculously homeriffic opinions on the relative potential of the Jets and Dolphins.

[Aten]

If I knew which it was, I could make a boatload of money, but I definitely wont touch 9.5 wins, that number seems out of line with public perception, like theyre trying to get people to take the over, aka a TRAP.

They have Miami at +300 and you think the Jets line is a trap?

[GMJohnson]

I was actually referring to your extremely naive opinions on how lines work, not your ridiculously homeriffic opinions on the relative potential of the Jets and Dolphins.

Oh, I forgot who it was. You obviously have no intention of saying anything even remotely useful or insightful. Why dont you find a hobby or something?

[Klecko73isGod]

Oh, I forgot who it was. You obviously have no intention of saying anything even remotely useful or insightful. Why dont you find a hobby or something?

I'll make a deal with you: The second you say something not dripping in homerism...

why am I wasting my time?

[GMJohnson]

They have Miami at +300 and you think the Jets line is a trap?

How about this. If you disagree, cool. Be a man, state your opinion, and if youre in the mood, give an explanation. But the rhetorical questions, with no info whatsoever, is kinda lame.

[GMJohnson]

I'll make a deal with you: The second you say something not dripping in homerism...

why am I wasting my time?

Dude you run around here replying to every word I say, and I have sense enough to ignore you 90% of the time. So yeah, please stop wasting your time.

[Klecko73isGod]

How about this. If you disagree, cool. Be a man, state your opinion, and if youre in the mood, give an explanation. But the rhetorical questions, with no info whatsoever, is kinda lame.

There's that superior attitude again.

Serious question: do you get off by being a douche?

[NIGHT STALKER]

How about this. If you disagree, cool. Be a man, state your opinion, and if youre in the mood, give an explanation. But the rhetorical questions, with no info whatsoever, is kinda lame.

Okay, I got one for you. I can see why Jet fans are excited about this upcoming season. You know, one game from the Super Bowl, Ryan, coaching staff, plus Sanchez have experience now...plus a boat load of signings this offseason. What makes you think the fins are even on par with say the Jets? And please don't use the "we beat you twice last season"...Jets beat Marino and company back in '93 twice and the fins had a better ending season.

[dbatesman]

Oh, I forgot who it was. You obviously have no intention of saying anything even remotely useful or insightful. Why dont you find a hobby or something?

How about this. If you disagree, cool. Be a man, state your opinion, and if youre in the mood, give an explanation. But the rhetorical questions, with no info whatsoever, is kinda lame.

Dude you run around here replying to every word I say, and I have sense enough to ignore you 90% of the time. So yeah, please stop wasting your time.

Call me a stickler if you must, but when half your posts essentially say nothing more than "you're mean!" it seems a little unfair to demand expository essays from everyone else.

[R3V1S24]

Oh, I forgot who it was. You obviously have no intention of saying anything even remotely useful or insightful. Why dont you find a hobby or something?

you look for a hobbie too! every comment i see you try to put down jet fans, in a JET FOURM, do you seriously have anything else to do?

[GMJohnson]

Okay, I got one for you. I can see why Jet fans are excited about this upcoming season. You know, one game from the Super Bowl, Ryan, coaching staff, plus Sanchez have experience now...plus a boat load of signings this offseason. What makes you think the fins are even on par with say the Jets? And please don't use the "we beat you twice last season"...Jets beat Marino and company back in '93 twice and the fins had a better ending season.

Be as excited as you'd like man, Ive got no issue with that.

Im gonna try and stick to the topic, which is the lines. All I said is that I think most people will bet NY Over 9.5 wins. Any disgreement there? I think that the 9.5 line might be a little low, considering conventional wisdom is that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Agreed? If the action goes heavily on the Over and the line doesnt move, I will assume that its a trap line and bet against NY during the early part of the regular season.

As for Miami being "on par" with NY, perhaps you missed the two times they beat you last year. Or that Miami has added alot of talent in the offseason as well, and not guys with expiring contracts or declining abilities, either. I know going to the AFCCG was a big deal, but it doesnt erase everything that happnened before that. All teams are 0-0, what you did last year doesnt entitle you to anything except memories. I think NY, Miami, and NE are about evenly matched, whoever stays healthiest will probably win the division. Obviously you disagree, but hey, thats why they play the games.

[GMJohnson]

Call me a stickler if you must, but when half your posts essentially say nothing more than "you're mean!" it seems a little unfair to demand expository essays from everyone else.

Lol thats funny. Im just about the only person in the thread to make a reply to the actual thread starter's post. Then along comes the Goof Troop, trying to turn a good topic into a mud slinging contest. I honestly dont like being the center of attention, but I guess you guys just cant help yourselves.

[Klecko73isGod]

Lol thats funny. Im just about the only person in the thread to make a reply to the actual thread starter's post. Then along comes the Goof Troop, trying to turn a good topic into a mud slinging contest. I honestly dont like being the center of attention, but I guess you guys just cant help yourselves.

[NIGHT STALKER]

Be as excited as you'd like man, Ive got no issue with that.

Im gonna try and stick to the topic, which is the lines. All I said is that I think most people will bet NY Over 9.5 wins. Any disgreement there? I think that the 9.5 line might be a little low, considering conventional wisdom is that Vegas wants equal action on both sides. Agreed? If the action goes heavily on the Over and the line doesnt move, I will assume that its a trap line and bet against NY during the early part of the regular season.

As for Miami being "on par" with NY, perhaps you missed the two times they beat you last year. Or that Miami has added alot of talent in the offseason as well, and not guys with expiring contracts or declining abilities, either. I know going to the AFCCG was a big deal, but it doesnt erase everything that happnened before that. All teams are 0-0, what you did last year doesnt entitle you to anything except memories. I think NY, Miami, and NE are about evenly matched, whoever stays healthiest will probably win the division. Obviously you disagree, but hey, thats why they play the games.

Come on man, you knocked me and a couple of others on this forum for lacking reading comprehension...I mentioned your two victories from last season.

[GMJohnson]

you look for a hobbie too! every comment i see you try to put down jet fans, in a JET FOURM, do you seriously have anything else to do?

If youre gonna dish it out, be ready to take it. Been that way since the playground days. Of course this is a Jet forum, and this is a "LINES THREAD". But if you think Im gonna kow tow to the collective over-optimisim thats infesting some on this forum, or sit quietly while people direct insults in my direction, then .

More importantly. Stick to the topic. If you disagree w me or anyone else, say why, give an opposing opinion, whatever the case may be. Instead, the Goof Troop comes storming in here, hijacking what was a good thread, and turning it into a conversation about me. And then they say Im a troll LMAO. Ignore me then. And give the thread starter some respect by not hijacking his topic.

[Klecko73isGod]

If youre gonna dish it out, be ready to take it. Been that way since the playground days. Of course this is a Jet forum, and this is a "LINES THREAD". But if you think Im gonna kow tow to the collective over-optimisim thats infesting some on this forum, or sit quietly while people direct insults in my direction, then .

More importantly. Stick to the topic. If you disagree w me or anyone else, say why, give an opposing opinion, whatever the case may be. Instead, the Goof Troop comes storming in here, hijacking what was a good thread, and turning it into a conversation about me. And then they say Im a troll LMAO. Ignore me then. And give the thread starter some respect by not hijacking his topic.

Pretend you're not you, then read your posts.

[GMJohnson]

Come on man, you knocked me and a couple of others on this forum for lacking reading comprehension...I mentioned your two victories from last season.

You said, dont say two victories, as if beating the Jets head to head twice isnt a valid reason to think the teams are fairly evenly matched. Cant let you get away with that. If NY had swept Miami and I came in here or anywhere else saying the Jets werent on par with the Fins, I'd deserve every ounce of ridicule that came afterwards.

[GMJohnson]

Pretend you're not you, then read your posts.

Uh huh. How do you put someone on the ignore list? Can anyone help me out with that?

[yisman]

I dabble in the spotsbooks, but Im no expert. Unless Im mistaken, the number (+130) represents the return on a 100 bet w/ the Jets. IMO there are two ways to interpret that. One is that Vegas feels the Jets have the best shot of winning the division. The other way is that Vegas doesnt necessarily think NY has the best shot, but they expect the public to bet on them heavily, and they want to minimize the risk of of taking a big hit if NY comes through. If I knew which it was, I could make a boatload of money, but I definitely wont touch 9.5 wins, that number seems out of line with public perception, like theyre trying to get people to take the over, aka a TRAP.

vegas doesn't have an opinion in the vast majority of cases

linemakers set lines based on how they think people will bet

books never want to expose themselves to a possible loss.

linesmakers can't inject their own opinion. If one linemaker felt the Jets were a near lock to win the division, he still wouldn't do Jets -200 or something, because even if that's how he feels, people would bet heavily on the other teams.

+130, if that's the opening line, is a linesmaker's estimate of an equitable line as it relates to how money will be bet.

[Klecko73isGod]

vegas doesn't have an opinion in the vast majority of cases

linemakers set lines based on how they think people will bet

books never want to expose themselves to a possible loss.

linesmakers can't inject their own opinion. If one linemaker felt the Jets were a near lock to win the division, he still wouldn't do Jets -200 or something, because even if that's how he feels, people would bet heavily on the other teams.

+130, if that's the opening line, is a linesmaker's estimate of an equitable line as it relates to how money will be bet.

Thank you. The house would never expose itself to a possible loss like GMJohnson was suggesting earlier. The way they mazimize and guarantee profits is by getting an equal amount of money bet on both sides.

The ideal outcome to any game for a bookie is a push.

[Jetsfan80]

GMJohnson is like the stranger who comes into a town, walks into a bar, takes a seat and then starts instructing the locals on how they should do things.

GMJohnson, you are on the low end of the totem poll even among the trolls who frequent this board.

You have to earn your respect just like the Dolphins fans who hang out here, such as CrashingJet, Landshark and Dolphinfan4life. At least those guys bring something to the table when it comes to discussion. Only then can you complain about the Jets fans around here.

If you have a complaint about every Jets fan here, then the problem isn't Jets fans. Its you.

[NIGHT STALKER]

You said, dont say two victories, as if beating the Jets head to head twice isnt a valid reason to think the teams are fairly evenly matched. Cant let you get away with that. If NY had swept Miami and I came in here or anywhere else saying the Jets werent on par with the Fins, I'd deserve every ounce of ridicule that came afterwards.

I gave you a clear example of a crappy team beating a better team back in '93 when the Jets swept the fins...I guess you're too young to go back that far. S hit happens...and that's exactly what happened last season when you took two from us. You are not a good team.

[Klecko73isGod]

I gave you a clear example of a crappy team beating a better team back in '93 when the Jets swept the fins...I guess you're too young to go back that far. S hit happens...and that's exactly what happened last season when you took two from us. You are not a good team.

Even if they were a good team, there's also the reality that the last time the Jets and Dolphins played each other they were very different teams than they were at the end of the season and even moreso now.

His failure to grasp this simple concept is the main issue. Football is not played in a vacuum where teams play the same every week regardless of any outside factor.

[GMJohnson]

vegas doesn't have an opinion in the vast majority of cases

linemakers set lines based on how they think people will bet

books never want to expose themselves to a possible loss.

linesmakers can't inject their own opinion. If one linemaker felt the Jets were a near lock to win the division, he still wouldn't do Jets -200 or something, because even if that's how he feels, people would bet heavily on the other teams.

+130, if that's the opening line, is a linesmaker's estimate of an equitable line as it relates to how money will be bet.

Good points all. I dont know if 130 is a good line, sounds reasonable, not fishy at all. But Miami at +300 implies that the NY/NE are 2.5 times more likely to win the AFCE, which is questionable on the field, but probably in line with what the public thinks. Then I see NY at 9.5 wins and theyre faded towards the under, and Miami is 8.5 and faded towards the over, and Im wondering why such a big gap (130-300) on what amounts to less than a one game difference in terms of win total. Thats all.

[Aten]

How about this. If you disagree, cool. Be a man, state your opinion, and if youre in the mood, give an explanation. But the rhetorical questions, with no info whatsoever, is kinda lame.

I don't understand what additional information could possibly be required. Do you seriously not know that 300 is more than 130?

[GMJohnson]

GMJohnson is like the stranger who comes into a town, walks into a bar, takes a seat and then starts instructing the locals on how they should do things.

GMJohnson, you are on the low end of the totem poll even among the trolls who frequent this board.

You have to earn your respect just like the Dolphins fans who hang out here, such as CrashingJet, Landshark and Dolphinfan4life. At least those guys bring something to the table when it comes to discussion. Only then can you complain about the Jets fans around here.

If you have a complaint about every Jets fan here, then the problem isn't Jets fans. Its you.

Nah not all. Im a football fan first, only a @ss would treat someone differently just b/c theyre a fan of another team. My issue is with anyone who makes every thread/post about personal attacks instead of sticking to the topic. Kinda like you. If you dont like me or what I have to say, fine. I could care less. Post your opine on whatever the topic, and keep it moving, if ima troll as you say, then ignore me. In fact, Ill just ignore you .