GMJohnson Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 I don't understand what additional information could possibly be required. Do you seriously not know that 300 is more than 130? 300 is more than 130 in math class. But not at a casino. In Vegas, +130 implies youre alot better than a team thats +300. Smart guy like yourself would know that, so Im gonna assume you were joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMJohnson Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 I gave you a clear example of a crappy team beating a better team back in '93 when the Jets swept the fins...I guess you're too young to go back that far. S hit happens...and that's exactly what happened last season when you took two from us. You are not a good team. Yes, Ive heard. We're going to win what 6, games this year? Lol. I'd be worried except that you havent given a single RELEVANT fact to support your opinion. The 1993 example is LOL funny. How about you tell me where we're so weak, where all the holes and deficiencies are, then we'll be cooking with gas for a change. But do it in another thread though, Ill make one myself if need be. But this poor guys thread has been hijacked enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Good points all. I dont know if 130 is a good line, sounds reasonable, not fishy at all. But Miami at +300 implies that the NY/NE are 2.5 times more likely to win the AFCE, which is questionable on the field, but probably in line with what the public thinks. Then I see NY at 9.5 wins and theyre faded towards the under, and Miami is 8.5 and faded towards the over, and Im wondering why such a big gap (130-300) on what amounts to less than a one game difference in terms of win total. Thats all. No, it doesn't. It just implies that the house thinks more people are likely to bet on the Jets winning the division than the Dolphins and that they need to make it more attractive for people to bet on the Dolphins. The casinos could care less which team is better. All they care about is figuring out what it takes to separate you from your money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 300 is more than 130 in math class. But not at a casino. No, it's still more. I'll just skip the preamble and just spell it out for you. Vegas thinks the Patriots are going to win the division and doesn't give the Dolphins a chance. The Jets line is straightforward given that they're the public's chalk pick and doesn't look to have been affected by arbitrage considerations at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMJohnson Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 No, it's still more. I'll just skip the preamble and just spell it out for you. Vegas thinks the Patriots are going to win the division and doesn't give the Dolphins a chance. The Jets line is straightforward given that they're the public's chalk pick and doesn't look to have been affected by arbitrage considerations at all. The Pats appear to be ever so slight favorites, but I wouldnt go as far as you did. I dont know about +130, but I dont think Vegas gets equal action on the Jets 9.5. Hell, go to the AFCE thread, Im the only one in there who doesnt think NY isnt gonna win at least 11. Of course thats not the most objective crowd, but IMO if Vegas wanted 50/50 I think they'd have gone 10-10.5. I could be wrong though, we'll just have to see where the money goes and whether or not the line moves. Its still hella early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 The Pats appear to be ever so slight favorites, but I wouldnt go as far as you did. I dont know about +130, but I dont think Vegas gets equal action on the Jets 9.5. Hell, go to the AFCE thread, Im the only one in there who doesnt think NY isnt gonna win at least 11. Of course thats not the most objective crowd, but IMO if Vegas wanted 50/50 I think they'd have gone 10-10.5. I could be wrong though, we'll just have to see where the money goes and whether or not the line moves. Its still hella early. Why would Vegas not want 50-50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 The Pats appear to be ever so slight favorites, but I wouldnt go as far as you did. I dont know about +130, but I dont think Vegas gets equal action on the Jets 9.5. God you just don't understand anything. They set the trap line on wins, which are fluid, but the division odds, which are zero sum, are straight up? No more freebies. You can figure out for yourself why what you're suggesting is idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R3V1S24 Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Uh huh. How do you put someone on the ignore list? Can anyone help me out with that? Log off and never come on this site again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Uh huh. How do you put someone on the ignore list? Can anyone help me out with that? unzip your pants. see that little nub where your penis should be? press it - that's the ignore button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 unzip your pants. see that little nub where your penis should be? press it - that's the ignore button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMJohnson Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 God you just don't understand anything. They set the trap line on wins, which are fluid, but the division odds, which are zero sum, are straight up? No more freebies. You can figure out for yourself why what you're suggesting is idiotic. Reading is fundamental. I said I think that 9.5 is low, IF IF IF Im correct and action is heavy on the over, AND AND AND the line doesnt move THEN AND ONLY THEN will I think its a trap line. For now it just seems a low enough for me to raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Generally speaking, yes, I'd agree with you. But there are instances where Vegas will knowingly set a line that will cause the public to bet overwhelmingly in one direction or the other. Either that or they will leave a line in place despite 70+ percent of the action going in one direction, if thier internals are telling them the public is wrong. IMO the public will bet heavily on the Jets over 9.5. Im thinking 70-80% of the action goes on the over. If the line doesnt move, that'll tell me that Vegas thinks the public is wrong and that 9.5 was a trap #. More importantly, it tells me that Vegas thnks NY is overrated, and I'll be betting against them every week to start the season. If the line does move, Im thinking Vegas is worried they set a bad number, and Im pissed b/c I missed out on a chance to get a bargain. Its too early to tell at this point though, Ill never bet a dime until a Week before the season starts. Line movement is based on money. 70% of bets or more could be on one side, but the money could be 50/50. You frequently have cases where the "public" is betting one side and the big money "sharps" the other. If 70% of money is on one side, the line moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GMJohnson Posted June 15, 2010 Share Posted June 15, 2010 Line movement is based on money. 70% of bets or more could be on one side, but the money could be 50/50. You frequently have cases where the "public" is betting one side and the big money "sharps" the other. If 70% of money is on one side, the line moves. Yep ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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