Revis impact on Jets D

[CTM]

A lot of debate this offseason about how important Revis is to the Jets defense, so i figured I'm accumulate stats from the first 3 weeks for some evidence. I don't consider Revis as ever being fully healthy as he had the hammy in week 2, and was conspicuously not covering the Ravens best reciever in week 1.

DVOA

2009 - Overall #1 , pass defense #1 (and 50% better then #2 team)

2010 - Overall #11, pass defense #20

PPG

2009 - #1

2010 - #7

YPG

2009 - #1

2010 - #20

PYPG

2009 - #1 (20% better then # 2 team)

2010 - #27

Some thoughts, it's clear at this point we are sporting an average defense sans Revis, anyway you shake it. The most reliable stat, DVOA puts us at 11th and 20th against the pass. Further, had it not been for the emergence of Sanchex and the offense, this team would be in a lot of trouble right now, imo.. (and yes i know sample size is small, it's interesting nonetheless)

[BroadwayJoe12]

I think it obviously has to do with revis and a lot, as rex said, to do with the almost brand new secondary. We allowed 24 points to Baltimore and New England throughout the first two weeks and than we had a hiccup against Miami. Same thing happened last year. We went down to a hot and humid miami and let up 400+ total offensive yards, at least this time we came away with the win.

I'm more than confident with revis and pace back in the next few weeks as well as the secondary getting more comfortable, the ship will right itself and finish top 5.

[Kleckineau]

A lot of debate this offseason about how important Revis is to the Jets defense, so i figured I'm accumulate stats from the first 3 weeks for some evidence. I don't consider Revis as ever being fully healthy as he had the hammy in week 2, and was conspicuously not covering the Ravens best reciever in week 1.

DVOA

2009 - Overall #1 , pass defense #1 (and 50% better then #2 team)

2010 - Overall #11, pass defense #20

PPG

2009 - #1

2010 - #7

YPG

2009 - #1

2010 - #20

PYPG

2009 - #1 (20% better then # 2 team)

2010 - #27

Some thoughts, it's clear at this point we are sporting an average defense sans Revis, anyway you shake it. The most reliable stat, DVOA puts us at 11th and 20th against the pass. Further, had it not been for the emergence of Sanchex and the offense, this team would be in a lot of trouble right now, imo.. (and yes i know sample size is small, it's interesting nonetheless)

Hey CTM thanks for the analysis. Revis is clearly missed. Do you think the Miami game is an aberation? No doubt Jets are better with Revis but I think pass defense even without Revis would be improving as the season progressed.

[Larz]

what about the jenkins and pace effect ?

[CTM]

Hey CTM thanks for the analysis. Revis is clearly missed. Do you think the Miami game is an aberation? No doubt Jets are better with Revis but I think pass defense even without Revis would be improving as the season progressed.

I thnk Rex designed last years defense around revis and that the Miami game was not an abberation. Personally.

I'm not crediting revis totally, although he was awesome, give credit to rex to do what mangina didn't

[CTM]

what about the jenkins and pace effect ?

Jenkins was out most of last year and taylor is as good as pace so far.. imo

this defense should be better this year.. not significantly worse

[#27TheDominator]

I thnk Rex designed last years defense around revis and that the Miami game was not an abberation. Personally.

I'm not crediting revis totally, although he was awesome, give credit to rex to do what mangina didn't

Maybe the Pats game wasn't an aberration. The team gave up 14 points and 7 can be directly attributed to Revis. They shut out the Pats without Revis.

Jenkins was out most of last year and taylor is as good as pace so far.. imo

this defense should be better this year.. not significantly worse

Jenkins played 7 games last year and Taylor is nowhere near the player that Pace is at this point. Taylor puts on a decent rush, but the only time he moves the pile he is against a TE or FB. He is a zero in the running game. Pace is a much more total player.

IMO it will take some time to sort out the D completely. Obviously Revis is a large piece, but I'm sure they'll have an excellent D even without him. The fact is, the Jets have played two of their toughest games of the season already and the Dolphins on the road are always a tough matchup. They dropped plenty of points on the team with Revis last year.

[Larz]

Jenkins was out most of last year and taylor is as good as pace so far.. imo

this defense should be better this year.. not significantly worse

the healthy version with a revis who attended all of camp would have been about equal early on, and then would only get significantly better if they stayed healthy, as you would still have 2 new starters in the secondary and 1 on the d-line, and it takes time for them to adjust.

I think the injuries to pace, jenkins and revis combined with new starters and facing very stiff competition is the reason the D stats aren't as pretty as last year.

what has really jumped out at me is TE's are killing the jets, and that's not revis. heck, even fasano had a good receiving game vs the jets defense

to me that is much more worriesome and a bigger trend

imo

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Jenkins was out most of last year and taylor is as good as pace so far.. imo

this defense should be better this year.. not significantly worse

JMO, but a big key to me is that teams are adjusting better to the Jets blitzes. Teams are converting over 50% on 3rd down on us so far this year. Only 3 games but that's the biggest situational difference i'm seeing on defense.

I think teams are keeping more back to protect and are just recognizing where it's coming from much better. The overload blitz which often sent free guys forth are being countered. Pace should help that because he poses a matchup problem a lot of the time.

I think there is an obvious Revis effect as well that compounds the problem. Part of it is learning the ins and outs of a new system, but Cromartie and Wilson are getting exposed in one-on-one man coverage during fire blitzes. Teams are willing to throw it up and see what happens. Wilson is inexperienced and Cromartie tends to panic and PI his man. i.e the Baltimore game. Cromartie struggling is not much of a surprise. He's going to get INTs because he has good ball instincts, but he still can't tackle for sh*t and is caught in bad position way too often.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Maybe the Pats game wasn't an aberration. The team gave up 14 points and 7 can be directly attributed to Revis. They shut out the Pats without Revis.

Jenkins played 7 games last year and Taylor is nowhere near the player that Pace is at this point. Taylor puts on a decent rush, but the only time he moves the pile he is against a TE or FB. He is a zero in the running game. Pace is a much more total player.

IMO it will take some time to sort out the D completely. Obviously Revis is a large piece, but I'm sure they'll have an excellent D even without him. The fact is, the Jets have played two of their toughest games of the season already and the Dolphins on the road are always a tough matchup. They dropped plenty of points on the team with Revis last year.

To be fair though, the 7 that was on Revis was mostly from a communication breakdown though. The Patriots caught the Jets off guard. The extra step made the difference in the end.

[slats]

Pace being out is a big deal. He is a complete player, and his presence moves J-Tay back to being the part-time pass rusher he was supposed to be. That will make him more effective on passing downs, and the Jets' pass rush will be that much better with both Pace and Taylor on the field at the same time.

Revis is also, obviously, a big deal. He consistently shuts down #1's without safety help. That allows Cromartie and Wilson to cover the opposition's next best two receivers (whether they're WR's or TE's), and frees the safeties to provide additional coverage or rush the passer themselves.

Lots more options when they get their two best players back. Despite the rough start, the Jets could still very much finish the season #1 against the pass.

[Kleckineau]

the healthy version with a revis who attended all of camp would have been about equal early on, and then would only get significantly better if they stayed healthy, as you would still have 2 new starters in the secondary and 1 on the d-line, and it takes for them time to adjust.

I think the injuries to pace, jenkins and revis combined with new starters and facing very stiff competition is the reason the D stats aren't as pretty as last year.

what has really jumped out at me is TE's are killing the jets, and that's not revis. heck, even fasano had a good receiving game vs the jets defense

to me that is much more worriesome and a bigger trend

imo

If I recall correctly even with Revis, Fasano also had a few nice catches last year and we all know what happened with Ted Ginn. Another poster made the point that maybe this is just due to new players in the secondary. I guess we will only really find out when Revis is 100% ready.

[Jetsfan80]

I think we're underestimating the fact that some of our players are getting a little long in the tooth in the front 7. Shaun Ellis and Bryan Thomas are in their last seasons as Jets, and Bart Scott is no young pup anymore.

[SenorGato]

There's alot of reasons why the D is off and Revis would be a big one.

Jenkins...overhauled secondary...Pace being out...less Rexgressive playcalling...

[#27TheDominator]

I don't see how anybody can complain about the D this year. They had one less than great game. Rex said he was "embarrassed" and that it had to do with lack of communication. They gave up 10 and 14 the first two weeks. The Pats got 38 in their other two games. I think given the evidence so far it seems that the Dolphins are more likely the aberration. Hopefully this discussion will remain hypothetical because none of us want a bigger sample size without Revis.

[Savage69]

The main problem is 3 new players in Cro,Wilson and Poole and Revis sitting out of camp that was the cause of his injury and the unit lacking any time playing together.. You can also say that with Revis the D has never been better then 18th without Rex.. Plus love him or not Rhodes was a pretty decent safety..

[Bruce Banner]

3 games is too soon and the defense looked great against the Ravens, only gave up 10 points. But I do think their are some problems in the secondary so Revis better be at 100% when the playoffs come. I think Pool hasn't proven that he's an upgrade from Rhodes and Leonhard, he gave up big plays to Marshall due to height. There are some problems at the safety position and I'm not impressed with all the nice things Rex says about Pool at press conferences. Lets see it on the field, I'm sick of listening to Rex build up players to the media. Its like going to a dinner party and listening to someone talk about their kid being in a school play.

[Jetsfan80]

I don't see how anybody can complain about the D this year. They had one less than great game. Rex said he was "embarrassed" and that it had to do with lack of communication. They gave up 10 and 14 the first two weeks. The Pats got 38 in their other two games. I think given the evidence so far it seems that the Dolphins are more likely the aberration. Hopefully this discussion will remain hypothetical because none of us want a bigger sample size without Revis.

When it comes to playing Miami in Miami, their offense seems to have our number. The same type of shootout happened in Miami last year in week 5. The D is going to have off days, and it seems that we're in good enough shape on offense that we can stay in or win every game we play. That's all you can ask; if the D struggles, the O needs to step up, and vice versa. So far so good.

But I do think their are some problems in the secondary so Revis better be at 100% when the playoffs come.

A bit too early to talk about the playoffs, as much as I believe we'll be there once again. Beat Buffalo and go from there.

[serphnx]

I don't see how anybody can complain about the D this year. They had one less than great game. Rex said he was "embarrassed" and that it had to do with lack of communication. They gave up 10 and 14 the first two weeks. The Pats got 38 in their other two games. I think given the evidence so far it seems that the Dolphins are more likely the aberration. Hopefully this discussion will remain hypothetical because none of us want a bigger sample size without Revis.

The Dolphins game was somewhat expected. For some reason they have been playing well against the Jets D the past year or two. I think they just match up really well with the Jets.

Football is a momentum game and there are games that turn into shootouts and others that turn into defensive struggle despite the strengths of the teams in question. Jets-Fins games always seem to turn into shootouts now where defense takes a back seat.

[CTM]

My assertion was/is that Revis was the key to last years #1 ranking. Rex completely designed his defense around Revis's ability to absolutely shutdown the other teams go to reciever up to and including which sides the overload blitzes were coming from (one reason Revis was targetted so much). Losing that has been huge imo...

We spent time without Jenkins and Pace last year, and lito was absolute garbage as #2, i don't see these being big factors in the decline (especially considering the run defense is better this year in the case of the first two))

[Matt39]

The Jets defense was probably worse in the Dolphins game last year and look where we ended up...

Revis is our best player and we obviously need him, but I would't take too much stock in that Miami game considering our D got blown up down there last year too.

The secondary has to improve dramatically however if we want to compete with Indy.

[SMC]

Interesting stuff, CTM.

But is the sample size for 2009 the same as now? Meaning, are you using the 1st 3 games from 2009 to compare to the 1st 3 games for 2010?

I'm only asking because the 2009 Jets defense didn't become ranked No. 1 until about mid season.

[CTM]

Interesting stuff, CTM.

But is the sample size for 2009 the same as now? Meaning, are you using the 1st 3 games from 2009 to compare to the 1st 3 games for 2010?

I'm only asking because the 2009 Jets defense didn't become ranked No. 1 until about mid season.

Nope, too much work to figure out point in time.. just took yearly totals..

someone else said it earlier, but hopefully we won't have to find out.

[JiF]

My assertion was/is that Revis was the key to last years #1 ranking. Rex completely designed his defense around Revis's ability to absolutely shutdown the other teams go to reciever up to and including which sides the overload blitzes were coming from (one reason Revis was targetted so much). Losing that has been huge imo...

We spent time without Jenkins and Pace last year, and lito was absolute garbage as #2, i don't see these being big factors in the decline (especially considering the run defense is better this year in the case of the first two))

The beauty in this, is that as great as Mevis is, we are 2-0 without him and 0-1 with him. Which pretty much says exactly what the anti-Mevis group this offseason was saying all along, we dont Mevis to win. Does he makes us better, yep, but if Sanchez is the truth, we dont need Mevis.

But to look deeper, right now, our secondary sucks. Cro blows, plain and simple. Wilson looks lost. Pool is brand new to the system and is a step late often and Leonhard's play is down because he's having to make up for the lack of production.

Pace being out hurts us because he's a complete player who is our best pass rusher which obviously helps our secondary. Not to mention our depth of the front line is hurting without Douglas and Green (not great players but really filled in nicely for Big Jenk last year). Revis is the only player on defense to get burned this season so, IMO, thus far, his absence hasnt hurt us at all. How are we to know that B. Marsh would have gone for bigger numbers vs. Mevis?

[Aten]

Interesting stuff, CTM.

But is the sample size for 2009 the same as now? Meaning, are you using the 1st 3 games from 2009 to compare to the 1st 3 games for 2010?

I'm only asking because the 2009 Jets defense didn't become ranked No. 1 until about mid season.

What I'd be more interested in seeing is the numbers for Baltimore with and without Reed and Indy with and without Sanders as compared to us with and without Revis and Pittsburgh with and without Polamalu. Reed and Sanders are great but they don't do anything unique schematically. Reed plays center, and obviously the Colts just run the deuce. Contrast this with the Jets and Steelers who build their coverages around one guy and seem to really suffer in his absence.

[CTM]

What I'd be more interested in seeing is the numbers for Baltimore with and without Reed and Indy with and without Sanders as compared to us with and without Revis and Pittsburgh with and without Polamalu. Reed and Sanders are great but they don't do anything unique schematically. Reed plays center, and obviously the Colts just run the deuce. Contrast this with the Jets and Steelers who build their coverages around one guy and seem to really suffer in his absence.

Haven't pulled the numbers, but i definitely have the perception that Indy's run defense suffers greatly when Sanders is out

[Aten]

Haven't pulled the numbers, but i definitely have the perception that Indy's run defense suffers greatly when Sanders is out

Yeah, the run defense definitely does, but the pass defense doesn't seem to, at least not to nearly the same extent, so this wouldn't really be out of line with the idea as the latter is more a matter of scheme than the former, no?

[SMC]

Nope, too much work to figure out point in time.. just took yearly totals..

someone else said it earlier, but hopefully we won't have to find out.

I know it's tough, but the way you did it makes you're comparison inherently flawed. Consider this: The Jets gave up 33 points in their 1st 3 2009 games (47 in 1st 3 in 2010), but then the 2009 squad gave up 71 points over their next 3 games, all loses. So think about that. The Jets are giving up 15.6 ppg in 2010 after 3 games, but the 2009 squad gave up 17.33 ppg over it's 1st 6 games.

I know Rex built the 2009 defense around Revis, but I don't know if the same can be said about 2010 based simply what has happened in 3 games.

[slats]

The beauty in this, is that as great as Mevis is, we are 2-0 without him and 0-1 with him. Which pretty much says exactly what the anti-Mevis group this offseason was saying all along, we dont Mevis to win. Does he makes us better, yep, but if Sanchez is the truth, we dont need Mevis.

But to look deeper, right now, our secondary sucks. Cro blows, plain and simple. Wilson looks lost. Pool is brand new to the system and is a step late often and Leonhard's play is down because he's having to make up for the lack of production.

Pace being out hurts us because he's a complete player who is our best pass rusher which obviously helps our secondary. Not to mention our depth of the front line is hurting without Douglas and Green (not great players but really filled in nicely for Big Jenk last year). Revis is the only player on defense to get burned this season so, IMO, thus far, his absence hasnt hurt us at all. How are we to know that B. Marsh would have gone for bigger numbers vs. Mevis?

Hmmm...

I don't know, but this smells a lot like an agenda driven post.

[Irish Jet]

Yeah, the run defense definitely does, but the pass defense doesn't seem to, at least not to nearly the same extent, so this wouldn't really be out of line with the idea as the latter is more a matter of scheme than the former, no?

The Colts pass defense I would assume largely revolves around Freeney, I'd say it would suffer to a much greater extent in his absense and Mathis accross from him, than anyone else.

[Irish Jet]

How are we to know that B. Marsh would have gone for bigger numbers vs. Mevis?

Because we know.

$10000000000 says he doesn't do that when he meets Revis in the Meadowlands.

[JiF]

Hmmm...

I don't know, but this smells a lot like an agenda driven post.

No agenda. Proven fact.

Because we know.

$10000000000 says he doesn't do that when he meets Revis in the Meadowlands.

Do we? Heard the same thing about Moss when he blew by him and stuck out one hand and plucked the ball out of the air.

[CTM]

I know it's tough, but the way you did it makes you're comparison inherently flawed. Consider this: The Jets gave up 33 points in their 1st 3 2009 games (47 in 1st 3 in 2010), but then the 2009 squad gave up 71 points over their next 3 games, all loses. So think about that. The Jets are giving up 15.6 ppg in 2010 after 3 games, but the 2009 squad gave up 17.33 ppg over it's 1st 6 games.

I know Rex built the 2009 defense around Revis, but I don't know if the same can be said about 2010 based simply what has happened in 3 games.

This wasn't meant to be an exhaustive analysis

[CTM]

No agenda. Proven fact.

Do we? Heard the same thing about Moss when he blew by him and stuck out one hand and plucked the ball out of the air.

Revis wasn't healthy nor in game shape from being a selfish diva and sitting out camp.. that's kind of the point. If Revis was in 2009 form, i think our stats would be significantly better

[CTM]

Yeah, the run defense definitely does, but the pass defense doesn't seem to, at least not to nearly the same extent, so this wouldn't really be out of line with the idea as the latter is more a matter of scheme than the former, no?

aye