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Coleman Huge Coverage Risk


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Football Scientist: Coleman is a huge coverage risk

October, 1, 2010 Oct 110:27AM ETEmail Print Comments By KC JoynerIt is entirely understandable why the Jets would want to consider moving Kyle Wilson out of the lineup. It's not just that that his metrics are subpar -- he simply doesn't seem to have a feel for how to locate the ball when it is thrown to the receiver he is covering. This will take some practice to correct and OJT isn't the place to get that practice.

Having said that, moving Drew Coleman into the lineup could be a situation where the solution ends up being worse than the problem. I say this because Coleman's historical metrics are simply abysmal.

Let's use the 2009 campaign as the evidence. In that season, the Jets had four cornerbacks who ended up being listed as qualifiers in the season-ending cornerback metrics (25 attempts being the benchmark for qualification).

Three of these corners (Darrelle Revis, Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard) all posted yards per attempt (YPA) totals of six yards or less. That put each of them in the top 20 in the league in that category (and the Jets were the only team with three CBs in the top 20).

Coleman was the only Jet cornerback who didn't make it over that coverage bar. He ended up with an 8.0 YPA, a total that ranked tied for 66th.

He was also the worst NY cornerback on vertical routes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 9.7 vertical YPA was easily the worst on the team and ranked tied for 55th in the league.

Coleman was also the only Jets cornerback who allowed either a completion or a defensive penalty on a play more than 50% of the time.

The numbers are more than a bit of a concern but there is also the idea of what would happen if Buffalo were to get Lee Evans matched up on Coleman. Evans has been hamstrung by this offense but he is now paired back up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a quarterback who won't hold back from throwing the deep pass the way Trent Edwards did. If the Jets give the Bills the Evans/Coleman matchup even just one time, Buffalo will go after it as quickly as they can.

Put it all together and this game could be a bigger coverage test than is generally thought.

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yeah it isn't like an adjustment can't be made during the game if he struggles. Or it could be that he may never get better. You know because life never changes...

Really though...

Jets like the Coleman/Parrish matchup, and I'm sure he'll get safety help. Bills have three WR's very involved in the offense, so I'm sure Wilson and Lowery will also see a lot of playing time.

Shaking things up a little bit is a smart thing this week. Keep everyone focused in a week where they could easily fall asleep.

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Coleman did fine in Miami, but lets just rely on 2009 stats.... lol

Cro/Wilson/Coleman/Lowery will all see time on the outside...

NOONE in the secondary did "just fine" in Miami.

He got an interception on a deflection to end the game. That was it.

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Really though...

Jets like the Coleman/Parrish matchup, and I'm sure he'll get safety help. Bills have three WR's very involved in the offense, so I'm sure Wilson and Lowery will also see a lot of playing time.

Shaking things up a little bit is a smart thing this week. Keep everyone focused in a week where they could easily fall asleep.

This is the only explanation that makes sense to me. It is a specific match up start.

Wilson has struggled, but did better in the slot. I like Lowery over Coleman, but I think the CS thinks that Coleman is a better match up with Parrish.

Makes sense

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Seriously??

Game ending pick in Panther game in preseason, played well against the Patriots. Game ending INT vs the squid. He's earned the right to lobby for more time. When you show and prove Rex rewards you. He'll have a chance to prove his worth against live bullets this week.

I'm as serious as a heart attack.

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Game ending pick in Panther game in preseason, played well against the Patriots. Game ending INT vs the squid. He's earned the right to lobby for more time. When you show and prove Rex rewards you. He'll have a chance to prove his worth against live bullets this week.

I'm as serious as a heart attack.

Coleman can only play well when hes on the fringe, and that is in garbage time.

The guy is total filth, and has proven time and time and time and time and time and time and time again that he cannot cover Abe Vigoda in a phonebooth. Why is he given jack over Cole???

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AHHHHHHHHHGHHHHHHHHHHHGHHHHHHH!@ I so effing hate these retarded statmeisters. They are less than useless. They are hugely misleading. Any J.O. with enough time to crunch numbers that are essentially useless should be forced to work for a living. This is pure crap. Like when they said Bart Scott was better than D. Harris--even though every effing stat (and they are in the stat business) said otherwise. they came up with "Harris succeeds only because Scott "crashes" the line and frees him up to make plays." Really? then why did we keep Harris over Vilma? because he's a JAG? Die already and watch a goddam football game. Pukes.

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Football Scientist: Coleman is a huge coverage risk

October, 1, 2010 Oct 110:27AM ETEmail Print Comments By KC JoynerIt is entirely understandable why the Jets would want to consider moving Kyle Wilson out of the lineup. It's not just that that his metrics are subpar -- he simply doesn't seem to have a feel for how to locate the ball when it is thrown to the receiver he is covering. This will take some practice to correct and OJT isn't the place to get that practice.

Having said that, moving Drew Coleman into the lineup could be a situation where the solution ends up being worse than the problem. I say this because Coleman's historical metrics are simply abysmal.

Let's use the 2009 campaign as the evidence. In that season, the Jets had four cornerbacks who ended up being listed as qualifiers in the season-ending cornerback metrics (25 attempts being the benchmark for qualification).

Three of these corners (Darrelle Revis, Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard) all posted yards per attempt (YPA) totals of six yards or less. That put each of them in the top 20 in the league in that category (and the Jets were the only team with three CBs in the top 20).

Glad I only had to read 4 paragraphs to learn this is bogus.

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Really though...

Jets like the Coleman/Parrish matchup, and I'm sure he'll get safety help. Bills have three WR's very involved in the offense, so I'm sure Wilson and Lowery will also see a lot of playing time.

Shaking things up a little bit is a smart thing this week. Keep everyone focused in a week where they could easily fall asleep.

I agree with you 100 %. The FOOTBALL SCIENTIST is NOT taking into consideration that with PRYCE we will have a much better inside passrush. That will help free up Taylor on the outside. Ellis will have something to say too. NOTHING helps a secondary like a PASSRUSH. Also Coleman now has experience and has the REX defensive schemes down pat. He will react; and not have to tink on his feet. He is very fast and tenacious. he has learned a lot and REX has a way of making guys believe in themselves. I hope the scientist and others keep saying these things about the Jets. We do so well when they say negative things about us. Next week we get back, SANTONIO, REVIS, PACE. How many teams can say that they will get back three players of that caliber? This team will probably be very dominating in the second half of the season.

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Really though...

Jets like the Coleman/Parrish matchup, and I'm sure he'll get safety help. Bills have three WR's very involved in the offense, so I'm sure Wilson and Lowery will also see a lot of playing time.

Shaking things up a little bit is a smart thing this week. Keep everyone focused in a week where they could easily fall asleep.

Agreed.

Everybody is jumping on this as if it is a benching of Wilson. What it actually amounts to is Wilson being moved back to the position he's been practicing and the one he was always expected to fill - slot CB. Ray Mickens style. He's got enough on his plate without forcing him to move outside.

Oh, and KC Joyner, not to worry. If Coleman falters we still have a top 20 CB to replace him.

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Football Scientist: Coleman is a huge coverage risk

October, 1, 2010 Oct 110:27AM ETEmail Print Comments By KC JoynerIt is entirely understandable why the Jets would want to consider moving Kyle Wilson out of the lineup. It's not just that that his metrics are subpar -- he simply doesn't seem to have a feel for how to locate the ball when it is thrown to the receiver he is covering. This will take some practice to correct and OJT isn't the place to get that practice.

Having said that, moving Drew Coleman into the lineup could be a situation where the solution ends up being worse than the problem. I say this because Coleman's historical metrics are simply abysmal.

Let's use the 2009 campaign as the evidence. In that season, the Jets had four cornerbacks who ended up being listed as qualifiers in the season-ending cornerback metrics (25 attempts being the benchmark for qualification).

Three of these corners (Darrelle Revis, Dwight Lowery and Lito Sheppard) all posted yards per attempt (YPA) totals of six yards or less. That put each of them in the top 20 in the league in that category (and the Jets were the only team with three CBs in the top 20).

Coleman was the only Jet cornerback who didn't make it over that coverage bar. He ended up with an 8.0 YPA, a total that ranked tied for 66th.

He was also the worst NY cornerback on vertical routes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 9.7 vertical YPA was easily the worst on the team and ranked tied for 55th in the league.

Coleman was also the only Jets cornerback who allowed either a completion or a defensive penalty on a play more than 50% of the time.

The numbers are more than a bit of a concern but there is also the idea of what would happen if Buffalo were to get Lee Evans matched up on Coleman. Evans has been hamstrung by this offense but he is now paired back up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, a quarterback who won't hold back from throwing the deep pass the way Trent Edwards did. If the Jets give the Bills the Evans/Coleman matchup even just one time, Buffalo will go after it as quickly as they can.

Put it all together and this game could be a bigger coverage test than is generally thought.

Put Dwight Lowery in!

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