Football Scientist: Jets CB Metrics

[flgreen]

Football Scientist: Jets CB metrics

October, 7, 2010 Oct 710:21AM ETEmail Print Comments By KC JoynerSince we have reached the one-quarter mark of the Jets' season, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at some of Gang Green's passing metrics up to this point.

These metrics are derived from game tape breakdowns I do using a system that has been developed over the past seven years. The specifics of this system are too detailed to review in a forum of this nature, but the general overview is that it designed to segment individual player performance in a wide variety of areas.

For today's review we will be looking at cornerbacks. Each player is listed below along with the number of times he has been targeted (i.e. the number of passes thrown at the cornerback, including penalty plays), how many incompletions/interceptions/offensive pass interference (OPI) penalties occurred, the success rate (defined as incompletions/interceptions/OPI penalties divided by targets), yards allowed (both from completions and penalties) and yards per pass attempt (YPA).

Kyle Wilson -- 28 targets, 11 I/I/OPI, 39.3% success rate, 258 yards, 9.2 YPA

Darrelle Revis -- 8 targets, 6 I/I/OPI, 75.0% success rate, 38 yards, 4.8 YPA

Dwight Lowery -- 7 targets, 2 I/I/OPI, 28.6% success rate, 104 yards, 14.9 YPA

Antonio Cromartie -- 38 targets, 19 I/I/OPI, 50.0% success rate, 275 yards, 7.2 YPA

Drew Coleman -- 5 targets, 4 I/I/OPI, 80.0% success rate, 17 yards, 3.4 YPA

To put some of these totals into perspective, consider the following rules of thumb for the success rate and YPA categories:

Success rate -- A season-ending mark of 50% is very good, 40% is solid and anything below that is considered subpar

YPA - A season-ending YPA below the 7.0 mark would normally rank a cornerback in the top 1/3 of the league. A YPA mark of 7-9 yards would rank in the middle 1/3 of the league. Anything higher than 9 YPA will typically rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league.

It usually takes at least 25-30 targets to end up as a qualifier at year's end, so Coleman and Lowery's target figures are probably too low to read much into.

It might seem hard to accentuate the positive for Wilson, but his 39.3% success rate actually isn't that bad. If he could move that up by a few points while getting his YPA down by a couple of yards, his coverage totals would be adequate.

Cromartie's 38 targets are an incredibly high number. To get an idea of just how high, consider that there are normally only 1-2 cornerbacks that end up being targeted 100 or more times in a season. Cromartie is currently on pace to be thrown at 152 times this year, so getting Revis back will not only help the overall coverage prowess -- it will also keep Cromartie from wearing out due to the overwhelming target volume.

It is also notable that Cromartie is holding up YPA-wise. His YPA history has generally been in the 6-8 YPA range and his 7.2 mark this year indicates that hasn't changed. He truly is the glue that is holding this coverage unit together right now.

[slats]

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

[JiF]

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

Good thing we've had 0% of him in our last 3 wins.

Out of curiosity and I honestly dont know, does anyone think coaching staff's look at these numbers to determine where their players can improve or do you think they just go off what they see on the tape?

[THE ILK]

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

[#27TheDominator]

Good thing we've had 0% of him in our last 3 wins.

Out of curiosity and I honestly dont know, does anyone think coaching staff's look at these numbers to determine where their players can improve or do you think they just go off what they see on the tape?

I can't imagine they read too much into this. Drew Coleman is insanely successful because they were extremely careful in who he covers. Cromartie's high target rates are obviously part of the system too. The Jets funnel things at their #1. I would assume those overload blitzes account for much of this. Revis had very high target numbers last year despite putting up a historical season. They are system QBs. Maybe they use these type numbers evaluating other teams though.

[RutgersJetFan]

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

Lol at skipping the metric definitions and just skipping right to the blind fellatio. At least you're consistent.

[slats]

Lol at skipping the metric definitions and just skipping right to the blind fellatio. At least you're consistent.

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

[RutgersJetFan]

75% of Revis is better than most CB's in the league.

Well played.

[Bruce Banner]

Any stats which lead to the conclusion that Drew Coleman is our best cornerback can be considered fatally flawed.

[RutgersJetFan]

Any stats which lead to the conclusion that Drew Coleman is our best cornerback can be considered fatally flawed.

By far, the most common misconception when it comes to efficiency stats is the notion that the numbers presented can correlate to how conventional statistics measure and rank. The number above represents nothing more than Coleman is x effective in his role of y in z defense.

[Aten]

By far, the most common misconception when it comes to efficiency stats is the notion that the numbers presented can correlate to how conventional statistics measure and rank. The number above represents nothing more than Coleman is x effective in his role of y in z defense.

No. That's the argument for DVOA and other such metrics that involve complex formulae which can be conveniently disregarded as hocus pocus when they fail to output hierarchical rankings. While it's true that the numbers above are presented as rate stats, they're really just counting outcomes. Those corners gave up those catches for those yards on those plays. The numbers don't purport to measure efficiency or effectiveness or provide context, they just tell you what happened.