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dbatesman

By dbatesman
in NY Jets Forum

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A good offense is better than the sum of its parts. With the reported deal for Randy Moss, the Minnesota Vikings are attempting to revitalize a passing offense that fell from fourth in DVOA a year ago to a stunning 30th this year. If you take a statistical look at what's changed about the Vikings offense, though, it's hard to imagine Moss serving as more than an extraneous part of a flawed passing game.

To succeed, a great passing offense needs receivers who can run every route on the route tree effectively. While some offenses (Houston) get by with one dominant receiver who can do anything you ask him to, virtually every great passing offense has a mix of receivers whose strengths play off the other guys in the mix.

The perfect example of such an offense, ironically, involves Moss. The 2007 Patriots -- the greatest passing offense in league history -- had a group of players who were all made better by the specialization of their roles. Moss worked down the sideline and was a devastating downfield threat on jump balls. Next to him was Wes Welker, who played off the fear of Moss by beating one-on-one matchups for 6-yard passes time after time. On the other side of the field, Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney served as slightly inferior mirror images of Moss and Welker, while tight end Ben Watson beat linebackers down the field and took advantage of stretched safeties on seam routes up the hashmarks. Finally, the Patriots used Kevin Faulk and Laurence Maroney as dumpoff receivers against a team's weakest defenders in coverage. Gaffney couldn't go do what Moss did, and Stallworth couldn't play the Welker role, but it didn't matter, the presence of all the complementary players made everyone look (and play) better.

When Favre threw the ball between 7 and 14 yards downfield in 2009, though, he completed his passes an impressive 71 percent of the time. In 2010, that figure is down to a staggering 45 percent.

Consider the 2009 Vikings. After signing the speedy Bernard Berrian the previous season, Minnesota needed a possession receiver to work underneath those deep routes and make tough catches. They tried to add T.J. Houshmandzadeh in free agency, but Houshmandzadeh chose the Seahawks over the Vikings. Percy Harvin was added in the first round of the draft, but Harvin's a speed merchant and still far from a refined route runner. With Brett Favre onboard, Minnesota needed a wide receiver who could effectively run the tougher routes over the middle that Favre and the West Coast offense rely on. The slant. The dig. The in.

That became the job of Sidney Rice, who had been considered an injury-prone bust through his first two seasons in Minnesota. While Rice isn't a dynamic downfield receiver the way that Berrian and Harvin are, he's tough, has ideal size and provides the route-running ability that a primary receiver in the West Coast offense needs. With Rice in tow, the Vikings' passing offense took off.

This year, Rice's injury has left the Vikings without a receiver who can effectively play off their deep threats, forcing Harvin and Berrian into roles they aren't particularly good at filling. Minnesota acquired Greg Camarillo during camp in the hopes that he could play that role, but Camarillo is still learning the playbook. While we don't have statistics for each specific route a receiver runs, the most obvious statistical signature of the change in the Vikings' offense comes in their completion percentage for intermediate-length passes.

On passes thrown within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage or less, the 2009 Vikings completed 77 percent of their passes. The 2010 Vikings are at 74 percent. When Favre threw the ball 15 or more yards downfield in 2009, he completed it 44 percent of the time; he's at the same rate in 2010.

Randy Moss

#81 WR

New England Patriots

2010 STATS

Rec

9 Yds

139 TD

3 Avg

15.4 Long

35 YAC

41

When Favre threw the ball between 7 and 14 yards downfield in 2009, though, he completed his passes an impressive 71 percent of the time. In 2010, that figure is down to a staggering 45 percent. His overall completion percentage is down from 68.4 percent to 61.9 percent, and the Vikings' struggles to complete those intermediate routes is the biggest reason.

Can Moss be the player that fills that role? It doesn't appear likely. Historically, Moss' game has been similar to that of Harvin and Berrian, combining excellent speed with rare leaping ability. Although he has the size to go over the middle and make plays, it's never been his primary role. Although it's too small of a sample to be meaningful, Moss is only 2-of-6 on passes thrown in that intermediate range in 2010. He caught 26-of-42 (62 percent) of those throws in 2009, but it's reasonable to wonder after four mediocre games in 2010 whether that Moss is still available.

In the long run, if the Patriots were going to trade their mercurial wideout, there would have been better places for Moss to go. Baltimore, for one, could use a deep threat to play across from Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason while Stallworth is out with an injury. Other teams like Tampa Bay and even Dallas would have benefited from Moss' abilities as a home run threat. But the 2010 Vikings? They need Sidney Rice, not Randy Moss.

Bill Barnwell is a writer for Football Outsiders.

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slats

slats

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The neg rep is deserved for violating the Terms & Conditions of his Insider account.

The neg rep should be for purchasing an insider account. Positive rep x2 if he's stealing it and reposting it.

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The neg rep should be for purchasing an insider account. Positive rep x2 if he's stealing it and reposting it.

haha.. tbh, i purchased it like 7 years ago and somehow i still get it and thier stupid magazine. I think they guessed at my new CC expiration and rebilled..

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SenorGato

SenorGato

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Cool article but what a dumb last paragraph:

In the long run, if the Patriots were going to trade their mercurial wideout, there would have been better places for Moss to go. Baltimore, for one, could use a deep threat to play across from Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason while Stallworth is out with an injury. Other teams like Tampa Bay and even Dallas would have benefited from Moss' abilities as a home run threat. But the 2010 Vikings? They need Sidney Rice, not Randy Moss.

Why in the hell would the Patriots even possibly care about that?

The article is interesting...but when they get Rice back it's kind of moot. At that point Moss/Rice/Berrian/Harvin >>>>>>>>>> 90% of the receiving corps in the league.

You know who's probably pissed on missing Moss? The Bears. The new power couple over there would love that guy in that offense...and the raw speed with those receivers... :o

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