The Wind Was Playing Mind Games On Sanchez, Rodgers & Kickers All Day, & Now On Us

[Darth Vader]

One of the big off-season questions coming into the year was how the weather conditions would translate from Giants Stadium to The New Meadowlands.

The "Wind Swirl" in the bowl at Giants Stadium once Fall set in was renowned to wreck havoc, causing a very inconsistent, mercurial wind. No one was sure whether it had to do with the position of the stadium and since the New Meadowlands sits at a different direction on the compass, it was not clear how, or even if the "Wind Swirl" would manifest.

We have already seen a number of missed FGs at TNM, and two occurred yesterday due to the wind. On Folk's miss, the wind was clearly in his head as he tried to compensate for wind that was previously blowing but by the time he kicked, was no longer blowing.

In terms of the QB's IMO I really think we have to factor this in. Everyone is piling on Sanchez for not throwing particularly well. Fine, he missed Braylon wide open and he has no touch on screen passes, etc. And he was overthrowing/underthrowing receivers all day. Balls sailed.

But the same thing happened to Rodgers. I think it's funny that everyone wants to chalk up Sanchez's sailing passes to his "inaccuracy" and "bad play", but as regards the same issue for Rodgers, it was just that the Jets "defense" finally played up to snuff.

I find this particularly full of it. The Jets defense was good, indeed, but Rodgers had all day in the pocket. And when he left the pocket, he is supposed to be one of the best throwers on the run in the NFL.

What I saw was on a half a dozen occasions, Packers WRs beating their coverage, but with Rodgers throwing an inaccurate ball - whether it sailed, or veered.

The question is why were Rodgers' balls inaccurate?

• Was it because of the pressure the jets were bringing?
  The answer is No.
  
• Was it because of the total coverage schemes?
  There may be some to this, but consider that for the entire first half and portions of the second, Rodgers was able to manipulate the Jets secondary because Revis was playing one side of the field exclusively. Rodgers was staring at a Greg Jennings - Drew Coleman matchup consistently.
  
• Was it because of a particular player playing out of his mind?
  No. All of the Jets defenders got beat at times in one-on-ones by the WRs, however, the balls were not always delivered well or caught. I can think of a few occasions when balls downfield could have been caught for LONG gains against Cro and Coleman.
  

Rodgers had his worst statistical % day ever with only 44.1, and his second worst yardage total and QB rating (he threw for 165 yds with a worse rating vs TB three years ago in his fourth game as a starter.) I understand that Rodgers is a bit of a riverboat gambler with his passing and can throw some picks. Sometimes passes go errant with a gambler. But Rodgers is a career 63-64% passer.

Sanchez is also a wildly inconsistent passer in terms of accuracy. However, his worst three games this year, all under 50%, were AT HOME, in The New Meadowlands, when the weather factored into the game. Both the Baltimore and Minnesota games were postponed due to weather, and yesterday the wind was a factor. Even with Sanchez's variability with accuracy, he is still a career 53-54% thrower.

So, we have two QBs that both threw a full 10 points below their respective accuracy norms:

• Sanchez is career 53% and threw 42% Sunday.
  
• Rodgers is career 64% and threw at 53-54% Sunday.
  

Factor in misses by both kickers, and I think the wind had a HUGE impact on the game, especially the doling out of blame etc. Another point after all that --

Sanchez's stat line:

16 of 38 for 256 yards 0 TDs and 2 INTs 42% completions

When you factor out of the statline the drops, and there were at least half a dozen, including the INTs, which were NOT INTs, Sanchez has a spectacular day - even with the fact that he doesn't place the ball perfect, etc. Let's give him just some of those drops and INTs back.

• The two catches that were ruled both incompletions AND INTs. Lets say they equalled 15 yards total.
  
• Let's give Sanchez the glaring Holmes drop and credit him with a 30 yard completion instead, but no TD (some say it would have been a TD). lets say it set us up inside the 10.
  
• And lets give him two of the other Cotchery drops, and lets just say that hyopthetically, they equalled 18 yards total.
  

Here's your new Sanchez statline:

21 of 38 for 319 yards, 0 TD 0 INT 55.3% completions

That's his first 300-yard game, and it would have been an easy 300 without the ample drops.

I think first of all, Sanchez is way too hard on himself. Second, I think he played a lot better than he is being given credit for. The Wide Receivers with the drops and the INTs that were on THEM lost us that game. No ifs ands or buts. And The Wind Swirl in the bowl of the NM is alive and kicking for the Fall and Winter going forward.

[Scott Dierking]

It would be great if we could develop a running game to counter this.

They could call it the the turf and nerf. Something along those lines.

[T0mShane]

My grandmother had balls.

[Darth Vader]

My grandmother had balls.

errant balls?

[JiF]

I'm not sure if you wrote this piece to make us feel better or if you wrote it for us to prepare to find a QB who can handle the wind.

If wind was the problem yesterday and wind is going to be a problem in the New Stadium, the we need a guy with Flacco or Cutler style arm and not Mark Sanchez.

He said the wind wasnt bothering him. I agree and just think he's super streaky and not all the good yet.

[T0mShane]

errant balls?

Kidding. I like the article and appreciate the obvious hard work, but Rodgers has become a star QB playing in what is probably the single worst weather stadium in the league. It's tough to say that he was more spooked by the wind than he was by Rex's defense. I'm sure it didn't help matters for him, but a guy that plays at Lambeau can probably handle wind. As it relates to Sanchez, if he couldn't deal with the conditions yesterday then we may as well trade him now. They're not throwing a dome on the stadium any time soon and Mark's arm isn't going to get any stronger than it is. That said, good post.

[Klecko73isGod]

One of the big off-season questions coming into the year was how the weather conditions would translate from Giants Stadium to The New Meadowlands.

The "Wind Swirl" in the bowl at Giants Stadium once Fall set in was renowned to wreck havoc, causing a very inconsistent, mercurial wind. No one was sure whether it had to do with the position of the stadium and since the New Meadowlands sits at a different direction on the compass, it was not clear how, or even if the "Wind Swirl" would manifest.

We have already seen a number of missed FGs at TNM, and two occurred yesterday due to the wind. On Folk's miss, the wind was clearly in his head as he tried to compensate for wind that was previously blowing but by the time he kicked, was no longer blowing.

In terms of the QB's IMO I really think we have to factor this in. Everyone is piling on Sanchez for not throwing particularly well. Fine, he missed Braylon wide open and he has no touch on screen passes, etc. And he was overthrowing/underthrowing receivers all day. Balls sailed.

But the same thing happened to Rodgers. I think it's funny that everyone wants to chalk up Sanchez's sailing passes to his "inaccuracy" and "bad play", but as regards the same issue for Rodgers, it was just that the Jets "defense" finally played up to snuff.

I find this particularly full of it. The Jets defense was good, indeed, but Rodgers had all day in the pocket. And when he left the pocket, he is supposed to be one of the best throwers on the run in the NFL.

What I saw was on a half a dozen occasions, Packers WRs beating their coverage, but with Rodgers throwing an inaccurate ball - whether it sailed, or veered.

The question is why were Rodgers' balls inaccurate?

• Was it because of the pressure the jets were bringing?
  The answer is No.
  
• Was it because of the total coverage schemes?
  There may be some to this, but consider that for the entire first half and portions of the second, Rodgers was able to manipulate the Jets secondary because Revis was playing one side of the field exclusively. Rodgers was staring at a Greg Jennings - Drew Coleman matchup consistently.
  
• Was it because of a particular player playing out of his mind?
  No. All of the Jets defenders got beat at times in one-on-ones by the WRs, however, the balls were not always delivered well or caught. I can think of a few occasions when balls downfield could have been caught for LONG gains against Cro and Coleman.
  

Rodgers had his worst statistical % day ever with only 44.1, and his second worst yardage total and QB rating (he threw for 165 yds with a worse rating vs TB three years ago in his fourth game as a starter.) I understand that Rodgers is a bit of a riverboat gambler with his passing and can throw some picks. Sometimes passes go errant with a gambler. But Rodgers is a career 63-64% passer.

Sanchez is also a wildly inconsistent passer in terms of accuracy. However, his worst three games this year, all under 50%, were AT HOME, in The New Meadowlands, when the weather factored into the game. Both the Baltimore and Minnesota games were postponed due to weather, and yesterday the wind was a factor. Even with Sanchez's variability with accuracy, he is still a career 53-54% thrower.

So, we have two QBs that both threw a full 10 points below their respective accuracy norms:

• Sanchez is career 53% and threw 42% Sunday.
  
• Rodgers is career 64% and threw at 53-54% Sunday.
  

Factor in misses by both kickers, and I think the wind had a HUGE impact on the game, especially the doling out of blame etc. Another point after all that --

Sanchez's stat line:

16 of 38 for 256 yards 0 TDs and 2 INTs 42% completions

When you factor out of the statline the drops, and there were at least half a dozen, including the INTs, which were NOT INTs, Sanchez has a spectacular day - even with the fact that he doesn't place the ball perfect, etc. Let's give him just some of those drops and INTs back.

• The two catches that were ruled both incompletions AND INTs. Lets say they equalled 15 yards total.
  
• Let's give Sanchez the glaring Holmes drop and credit him with a 30 yard completion instead, but no TD (some say it would have been a TD). lets say it set us up inside the 10.
  
• And lets give him two of the other Cotchery drops, and lets just say that hyopthetically, they equalled 18 yards total.
  

Here's your new Sanchez statline:

21 of 38 for 319 yards, 0 TD 0 INT 55.3% completions

That's his first 300-yard game, and it would have been an easy 300 without the ample drops.

I think first of all, Sanchez is way too hard on himself. Second, I think he played a lot better than he is being given credit for. The Wide Receivers with the drops and the INTs that were on THEM lost us that game. No ifs ands or buts. And The Wind Swirl in the bowl of the NM is alive and kicking for the Fall and Winter going forward.

Except Rodgers was at 44%.

[RutgersJetFan]

The winds in the new stadium are far worse. The lower and mid-level parts have huge open areas that the wind begins to kick into, and there are these awkwardly shaped tunnels in each corner that shoot it out like a bullet right on to the field. Standing there pregame you can feel it and it's bizarre. Terrible design. At the very least if they weren't going to do a dome, they shouldn't have done the open metal blinds and they sure has hell shouldn't have made the gates the way they are. The thing is like one big tornado box.

[sirlancemehlot]

sorry. but I was at the game seated in the lower level and people were sitting around in T-shirts. One lovely female in a tank-top seated directly in front of me was particularly conspicuous. The upper deck, the parking-lot--windy. lower level seats and field level--absolutely balmy throughout the first half. it was very calm and even the FG flags were barely moving. Good post--but way inaccurate. i actually got a suntan frpom the glare and was sweating through my klecko jersey. It was not windy early on, and only breezy later in the second half.

[CTM]

Good post. I mentioned this when one of the reTurds was trying to knock me for saying Rdogers would play well against this defense, but it's certainly applicable to Sanchez as well.(who people really need to relaz with, he's played well overall this eyar)

[jason423]

The only problem with thinking that way is that this has become standard for the Jets defense. Fitzpatrick was about 23% below his norms, Favre was 33% below, Orton was 38% below, and Rodgers was 31% below his norms. Neither Rodgers nor Orton felt any real pressure. Fitzpatrick felt a big and they beat up Favre. So Rodgers performance is just par for the course. Its doubtful weather played into it at all.

Sanchez in those same games is -15, -31, -8, -28. So assuming there is some adjustment for weather may not really be accurate. If you assume the best day for him he is completing 52% of his passes against that defense. On his worst he is going to around where he was yesterday. Maybe weather played a bigger role than I think, but if he cant play in this weather there could be a problem later on. I think the bigger worry is why does he play so much worse at home? This goes back to last year where the offense was far worse at home than they were away from home. He was bad in three of the home games this year and for as good as he played against New England that 70% completion percentage is average against that team. The team needs to see if they are calling offenses different at home than on the road or if there is something different he is doing in prep work when they have the home week rather than road week. Its not just a small sample anymore. Its turning into a bad trend.

[PatsFanTX]

Kidding. I like the article and appreciate the obvious hard work, but Rodgers has become a star QB playing in what is probably the single worst weather stadium in the league.

Sure it gets damn cold in GB, but the wind is more of a factor in the Meadowlands, Buffalo and Foxboro, especially in November and December.

[THE ILK]

errant balls?

[THE ILK]

My grandmother had balls.

My grandmother's cat had balls. http://static.funnyjunk.com/pictures/look_at_my_****in_balls.jpg

[Matt39]

I was screaming for the Jets to go for it on the 4th and 1 when Folk missed the 37 yard field goal. The Jets were desperate for a TD there and the wind was crazy. I couldn't believe Rex kicked there.

[Darth Vader]

The only problem with thinking that way is that this has become standard for the Jets defense. Fitzpatrick was about 23% below his norms, Favre was 33% below, Orton was 38% below, and Rodgers was 31% below his norms. Neither Rodgers nor Orton felt any real pressure. Fitzpatrick felt a big and they beat up Favre. So Rodgers performance is just par for the course. Its doubtful weather played into it at all.

Sanchez in those same games is -15, -31, -8, -28. So assuming there is some adjustment for weather may not really be accurate. If you assume the best day for him he is completing 52% of his passes against that defense. On his worst he is going to around where he was yesterday. Maybe weather played a bigger role than I think, but if he cant play in this weather there could be a problem later on. I think the bigger worry is why does he play so much worse at home? This goes back to last year where the offense was far worse at home than they were away from home. He was bad in three of the home games this year and for as good as he played against New England that 70% completion percentage is average against that team. The team needs to see if they are calling offenses different at home than on the road or if there is something different he is doing in prep work when they have the home week rather than road week. Its not just a small sample anymore. Its turning into a bad trend.

statistically there may be no correlation, but the eyeball test demonstrated that balls clearly sailing and veering yesterday. also, the misses by kickers. also, i went outside and it was windy.

The Swirl inside the stadium was always an issue - curious how the winds would translate - they seem to be definitely translating. the winds are endemic to the area geographically, they were not unique phenomena created only by dint of design in Giants Stadium.

All said and done, my point was also partially that Sanchez despite being victim to errant throws, like Rodgers, should have had a super-par game statistically.

21 of 38 (55+%) / ~320 yards / 0 TDs 0 INTs

That is a great statline for a second year QB named Sanchez still with some drops comprising INCs, and working thru the elements.

[SenorGato]

That's not a good thing considering what NJ is like in December.