how many can we drop at this point

[sirlancemehlot]

Looking at my e-mail and wondering if I can afford playoffs after getting my ticket notification. With Christmas coming up and games against the Pats, Steelers and Bears, plus 2 division matchups--do I go all in and tell the kids Santa decided they weren't very good this year? Thoughts? (Apologise for the possible negative Mojo inherent in such a question).

[slats]

The Jets will make the playoffs, but you need them to take the division to get home playoff games. That should be your question.

I don't have an answer.

[Kleckineau]

9-7 or 10-6 would mean a late season collapse so neither is acceptable.

11 wins or better.

Winning the div gives a realistic SB shot.

[sirlancemehlot]

The Jets will make the playoffs, but you need them to take the division to get home playoff games. That should be your question.

I don't have an answer.

yeah, I get that tix are only for home games--but i'd still like to feel like we're a lock fo PO's. What do we need? 10 wins? 11? more? give an answer, Slats. GIVE ME A GOD*AMNED ANSWER! thank you for your time and consderation.

[slats]

yeah, I get that tix are only for home games--but i'd still like to feel like we're a lock fo PO's. What do we need? 10 wins? 11? more? give an answer, Slats. GIVE ME A GOD*AMNED ANSWER! thank you for your time and consderation.

Haha, okay...

I say 11 wins guarantees a spot this year. 10 could do it.

[visajets]

Looking at my e-mail and wondering if I can afford playoffs after getting my ticket notification. With Christmas coming up and games against the Pats, Steelers and Bears, plus 2 division matchups--do I go all in and tell the kids Santa decided they weren't very good this year? Thoughts? (Apologise for the possible negative Mojo inherent in such a question).

Go for the tickets. Make it a dollar store Christmas at your house. Shop for the wife at the Salvation Army store. Kids today dont appreciate stuff anyway. They play with the toys for a few weeks and then ask for something different. The wife should understand and still love you anyway...

[stoicsentry]

I'm with slats. I think 10 can get you in, but 11 is a guarantee.

Think about it: 6 weeks left. Only one team with 7 wins, the next best have 6. Supposing you give one of the wildcards to the loser of the AFC North, now the only ones left to take the wildcards are the 6 win teams. Out of 6 games left, none should do better than 4-2 (putting them at 10-6 overall). The 6 win teams are not even close to frightening, the only one you have to worry about making a run here is Indy.

[Greenranger]

11-5 will get us in, but anything less than a 3-2 finish is unacceptable.

[LionelRichie]

I'm with slats. I think 10 can get you in, but 11 is a guarantee.

Think about it: 6 weeks left. Only one team with 7 wins, the next best have 6. Supposing you give one of the wildcards to the loser of the AFC North, now the only ones left to take the wildcards are the 6 win teams. Out of 6 games left, none should do better than 4-2 (putting them at 10-6 overall). The 6 win teams are not even close to frightening, the only one you have to worry about making a run here is Indy.

Therein lies the problem. If the Jets drop a game or 2 and Indy wins the division there is a good chance the Jets would open the playoffs on road @ Indy. This isn't the same colts team as last year but that is still a tough place to open the playoffs.

[jason423]

11 wins is likely going to get you to the playoffs. Assuming we lose to the Pats, Steelers, and Bears (the toughest 3 teams) it makes us 11-5 with a 9-3 record in the AFC and assuming no ties:

The AFC North could produce a 13 and a 12 win team

The best possible record in the AFC South is 12-4. The second best record is 11-5. Both the Jaguars and Colts already have 3 conference losses. The 11-5 team would have 4 because they play one another. If the Titans got to 11-5 only the Jags could also reach 11-5. Best Indy could do in that scenario is 10-6. Again the conference tiebreakers would go to the Jets

The AFC West could see the Chiefs at 12-4 which would max the runner up at 10-6. If the Chargers won at 11-5 the best KC could do is 11-5 and Oakland at 10-6. In theory I guess the Jets could lose that tiebreaker if KC was to win the divisional tiebreaker as SD would tie the Jets with 3 conference losses and win in the common opponents tiebreaker. Id say this is a pretty unlikely scenario. If Oakland got to 11-5 the best the Chargers could do is 10-6 and the Chiefs 11-5. Both KC and Oakland would have more than 3 losses in conference so the Jets should beat either team in the tiebreaker.

If you are looking at winning the division 13 guarantees it if the Jets win this week as they would have a 2 game lead (because the tie goes to the Jets under any scenario) with just 4 to play. If the Jets lose 13-3 stil gives them a chance but they need help at that point.

[sirlancemehlot]

11 wins is likely going to get you to the playoffs. Assuming we lose to the Pats, Steelers, and Bears (the toughest 3 teams) it makes us 11-5 with a 9-3 record in the AFC and assuming no ties:

The AFC North could produce a 13 and a 12 win team

The best possible record in the AFC South is 12-4. The second best record is 11-5. Both the Jaguars and Colts already have 3 conference losses. The 11-5 team would have 4 because they play one another. If the Titans got to 11-5 only the Jags could also reach 11-5. Best Indy could do in that scenario is 10-6. Again the conference tiebreakers would go to the Jets

The AFC West could see the Chiefs at 12-4 which would max the runner up at 10-6. If the Chargers won at 11-5 the best KC could do is 11-5 and Oakland at 10-6. In theory I guess the Jets could lose that tiebreaker if KC was to win the divisional tiebreaker as SD would tie the Jets with 3 conference losses and win in the common opponents tiebreaker. Id say this is a pretty unlikely scenario. If Oakland got to 11-5 the best the Chargers could do is 10-6 and the Chiefs 11-5. Both KC and Oakland would have more than 3 losses in conference so the Jets should beat either team in the tiebreaker.

If you are looking at winning the division 13 guarantees it if the Jets win this week as they would have a 2 game lead (because the tie goes to the Jets under any scenario) with just 4 to play. If the Jets lose 13-3 stil gives them a chance but they need help at that point.

holy crap. thats analysis right there. well done.

[Lupz27]

11 wins is likely going to get you to the playoffs. Assuming we lose to the Pats, Steelers, and Bears (the toughest 3 teams) it makes us 11-5 with a 9-3 record in the AFC and assuming no ties:

The AFC North could produce a 13 and a 12 win team

The best possible record in the AFC South is 12-4. The second best record is 11-5. Both the Jaguars and Colts already have 3 conference losses. The 11-5 team would have 4 because they play one another. If the Titans got to 11-5 only the Jags could also reach 11-5. Best Indy could do in that scenario is 10-6. Again the conference tiebreakers would go to the Jets

The AFC West could see the Chiefs at 12-4 which would max the runner up at 10-6. If the Chargers won at 11-5 the best KC could do is 11-5 and Oakland at 10-6. In theory I guess the Jets could lose that tiebreaker if KC was to win the divisional tiebreaker as SD would tie the Jets with 3 conference losses and win in the common opponents tiebreaker. Id say this is a pretty unlikely scenario. If Oakland got to 11-5 the best the Chargers could do is 10-6 and the Chiefs 11-5. Both KC and Oakland would have more than 3 losses in conference so the Jets should beat either team in the tiebreaker.

If you are looking at winning the division 13 guarantees it if the Jets win this week as they would have a 2 game lead (because the tie goes to the Jets under any scenario) with just 4 to play. If the Jets lose 13-3 stil gives them a chance but they need help at that point.

Ok that is great work right there. Can you tell me who wins the division if the Pats beat us and we win out and they lose a game. I would assume if they lose it would be to either the Bears or Packers. I also know it all depends on which team they lose to. Both Pats losses are in the AFC and we would also have 2, in the scenario above so we would go to tie breaker #4 cause we would still be tied after the first 3 head to head, division record, confrence record. I also think we would tie in common opponent, so then where do we go strength of schedule? Teams they had on there schedule that we didnt Chargers Colts, teams on our schedule Broncos, Texans, so if thats correct they would wim the division?

[neckdemon]

this monday night game is p lay-off game for all intents and purposes. this is as close to amust win game you can get for a team that is 9-2 and in first place in the division. i can't imagine this team showing up flat for this game. if they do then you have to start asking questions. on th eplus side it's almost like a bye since we played so damned early in the week and don't have to play till monday night. we should be fully rested and healthy for this game. i expect a win.

[Bob]

this monday night game is p lay-off game for all intents and purposes. this is as close to amust win game you can get for a team that is 9-2 and in first place in the division. i can't imagine this team showing up flat for this game. if they do then you have to start asking questions. on th eplus side it's almost like a bye since we played so damned early in the week and don't have to play till monday night. we should be fully rested and healthy for this game. i expect a win.

The Patsies actually have a few MORE hours of rest, having played earlier on Thursday. Plus, they're home and we have to travel. Not saying we're going to lose, just that this "bye week" crap has no validity.

[LionelRichie]

this monday night game is p lay-off game for all intents and purposes. this is as close to amust win game you can get for a team that is 9-2 and in first place in the division. i can't imagine this team showing up flat for this game. if they do then you have to start asking questions. on th eplus side it's almost like a bye since we played so damned early in the week and don't have to play till monday night. we should be fully rested and healthy for this game. i expect a win.

It's definitely a big game but I wouldn't call it a playoff game or a "must-win". In reality the Jets need to win 1 or 2 more games to get into the playoffs. with this team I don't think it matters whether they play on the road or at home in the playoffs. For whatever reason there is almost no homefield advantage for the Jets at the New Meadowlands.

[nycdan]

Ok that is great work right there. Can you tell me who wins the division if the Pats beat us and we win out and they lose a game. I would assume if they lose it would be to either the Bears or Packers. I also know it all depends on which team they lose to. Both Pats losses are in the AFC and we would also have 2, in the scenario above so we would go to tie breaker #4 cause we would still be tied after the first 3 head to head, division record, confrence record. I also think we would tie in common opponent, so then where do we go strength of schedule? Teams they had on there schedule that we didnt Chargers Colts, teams on our schedule Broncos, Texans, so if thats correct they would wim the division?

If Pats win and lose one more game to Bears or Packers while we win out, they will win the division based on strength of schedule.

If Pats win and lose one more game to Dolphins or Bills while we win out, we will win the division based on division record.

If we win, we can lose any one of our remaining games and still win the division even if the Pats win out. So to that very small extent we have a teeny little edge at this point.

[Integrity28]

Wow.... if this isn't a Same Old Jets FAN thread, I don't know what is.

Not even going to read beyond the title... makes me feel unlucky.

[Lurker]

9-7 won't get it done, that's for sure

[Larz]

12-4 is the target for me

chargers and colts have 5 losses, so that guarantees a home game if we meet them in the PO's

chargers and colts can kill jets by spreading them out and getting to lowery and coleman, have stud QB's and I don't even want to think about gates VS this D

I wouldn't be a big fan of going out west to play the chargers, even with norv as the coach, and indy in a dome is not fun either

not saying the jets can't win, but playing at home in snow would be better odds