Josh Freeman

[SenorGato]

Odors are particulate. There's not much precedent for a guy with Sanchez's collegiate statistical profile succeeding in the pros. Rumor has it our eureka moment consisted of realizing that flamboyant pro-day leadership was more relevant than experience and physical ability. Year one was a used diaper filled with Indian food. An inevitable drop in TOs and a few clutch throws in year two don't efface the plateaued completion percentage, the dip in YPA, and a second consecutive year of negative DVOA.

You're overrating a stat. It's a good stat and it makes alot of sense, but there's alot that goes ignored. Training at the college level beyond game experience...schools make alot of money from football, why wouldn't they want to their athletes to not receive top training? Specifically USC, a school who seemed to think they had an NFL team over the past decade...then there's NFL rule changes that favor the QB...in any sport the younger and sooner you become a major league player the more likely it is you'll be a star...he's playing in one of the two toughest divisions in the league...he's got a positive TD:INT, he's fumbled less, he's taken less sacks, he's been overall just better as a starter even if he still does suck. I'm sure his negative DVOA this year is a lesser negative to last year's too. The fact that he's already started 33 straight games without dying also speaks well fr him.

There's positives with the guy. I hope he becomes a statistical anomaly.

Also, Indian food is awesome.

[JustInFudge]

Odors are particulate. There's not much precedent for a guy with Sanchez's collegiate statistical profile succeeding in the pros. Rumor has it our eureka moment consisted of realizing that flamboyant pro-day leadership was more relevant than experience and physical ability. Year one was a used diaper filled with Indian food. An inevitable drop in TOs and a few clutch throws in year two don't efface the plateaued completion percentage, the dip in YPA, and a second consecutive year of negative DVOA.

Really, it wasnt his southern cali toned tanned body that turned all the scouts on?

[JustInFudge]

You're overrating a stat. It's a good stat and it makes alot of sense, but there's alot that goes ignored. Training at the college level beyond game experience...schools make alot of money from football, why wouldn't they want to their athletes to not receive top training? Specifically USC, a school who seemed to think they had an NFL team over the past decade...then there's NFL rule changes that favor the QB...in any sport the younger and sooner you become a major league player the more likely it is you'll be a star...he's playing in one of the two toughest divisions in the league...he's got a positive TD:INT, he's fumbled less, he's taken less sacks, he's been overall just better as a starter even if he still does suck. I'm sure his negative DVOA this year is a lesser negative to last year's too. The fact that he's already started 33 straight games without dying also speaks well fr him.

There's positives with the guy. I hope he becomes a statistical anomaly.

Also, Indian food is awesome.

Kellen Clemens was undefeated in 2009.

[SenorGato]

Kellen Clemens was undefeated in 2009.

32 games started then?

The completion% sucks, but if he plays like he has the past two games the rest of the this year then I'm fine with Year 2 Sanchez...especially if he wins the games.

[dbatesman]

Really, it wasnt his southern cali toned tanned body that turned all the scouts on?

Well, he was in a sleeveless T.

[CTM]

You're overrating a stat. It's a good stat and it makes alot of sense, but there's alot that goes ignored. Training at the college level beyond game experience...schools make alot of money from football, why wouldn't they want to their athletes to not receive top training? Specifically USC, a school who seemed to think they had an NFL team over the past decade...then there's NFL rule changes that favor the QB...in any sport the younger and sooner you become a major league player the more likely it is you'll be a star...he's playing in one of the two toughest divisions in the league...he's got a positive TD:INT, he's fumbled less, he's taken less sacks, he's been overall just better as a starter even if he still does suck. I'm sure his negative DVOA this year is a lesser negative to last year's too. The fact that he's already started 33 straight games without dying also speaks well fr him.

There's positives with the guy. I hope he becomes a statistical anomaly.

Also, Indian food is awesome.

It does always hold true, but "stats" will usually prove more accurate then the potential that fans see (or think they see).

Personally, I know the stats, I know the odds, but I can't help seeing a player when I watch him play. So don't listen to me.

[CTM]

Well, he was in a sleeveless T.

Was he wearing flip flops?

[SMC]

Personally, I know the stats, I know the odds, but I can't help seeing a player when I watch him play. So don't listen to me.

Which is surprising coming from you.

I too know the stats and have been disappointed at Sanchez' play at times and called him Maricon Suckchez, but it's hard to make a negative prognosis about a just-turned 24 yr old QB in his 2nd year, leading a team to 2 straight playoff appearances (only 4th QB to do that in franchise history), who improved from his 1st season and has played well in the Jets' biggest games.

It is obvious that Jet fans weren't ready for how life is with a rookie starting QB.

The Jets are going to give Sanchez his full rookie contract to prove them right about how they feel about him so I might as well do the same. That's in the Jets best interest.

[Aten]

It is obvious that Jet fans weren't ready for how life is with a rookie starting QB.

What you think specifically about Lewin as the basis for projection or DVOA as the measurement of performance is irrelevant. It's sufficient to say that Sanchez has played more or less as his detractors expected, so it's ludicrous to say that anybody's opinion is biased by virtue of either having had it out for him from the outset or not having been ready for what was going to happen, which propositions are mutually exclusive anyway.

[CTM]

Which is surprising coming from you.

ha.. remmber though, I was a Chad detractor in 2002 and 2004 when most of the stats, including DVOA said I was wrong..

i'm more interested in stats for entire unit performances, I tend to rely on my eye for individual players.. even though I know I shouldn't...

[Klecko73isGod]

ha.. remmber though, I was a Chad detractor in 2002 and 2004 when most of the stats, including DVOA said I was wrong..

i'm more interested in stats for entire unit performances, I tend to rely on my eye for individual players.. even though I know I shouldn't...

Why shouldn't you?

[donboyO]

Which is surprising coming from you.

I too know the stats and have been disappointed at Sanchez' play at times and called him Maricon Suckchez, but it's hard to make a negative prognosis about a just-turned 24 yr old QB in his 2nd year, leading a team to 2 straight playoff appearances (only 4th QB to do that in franchise history), who improved from his 1st season and has played well in the Jets' biggest games.

It is obvious that Jet fans weren't ready for how life is with a rookie starting QB.

The Jets are going to give Sanchez his full rookie contract to prove them right about how they feel about him so I might as well do the same. That's in the Jets best interest.

Ken O Brien was a good QB, Marino was a great one, It looks like it may happen again.

[Klecko73isGod]

Ken O Brien was a good QB, Marino was a great one, It looks like it may happen again.

Yeah and they won the same amount of Super Bowls.

That's all I care about. If Sanchez wins us the big one, I couldn't give a single sh*t whose stats are better than his.

[CTM]

What you think specifically about Lewin as the basis for projection or DVOA as the measurement of performance is irrelevant. It's sufficient to say that Sanchez has played more or less as his detractors expected, so it's ludicrous to say that anybody's opinion is biased by virtue of either having had it out for him from the outset or not having been ready for what was going to happen, which propositions are mutually exclusive anyway.

You can see that he plays a lot better when he's willing to play some small ball. He's got a little history of making plays late, which I know FO suggests there's no such thing as a clutch QB, but I can't help but disagree. He's shown good play making ability when the pocket breaks down, throws a nice deep ball and is showing better anticipation, particularly when he's playig with confidence. There's definitely some stuff to work with.

Also, reports seem to indicate he's a hard worker.. This may be PR bs, but you never here much to the contrary and don't see him out to often hitting up the gay clubs

[CTM]

Why shouldn't you?

Stats are objective*, eyes are not.

*Objective within thier own bias (like passer rating favorig efficiency)

[donboyO]

Yeah and they won the same amount of Super Bowls.

That's all I care about. If Sanchez wins us the big one, I couldn't give a single sh*t whose stats are better than his.

You really are "Hobtuse"

[#27TheDominator]

It's football, not baseball. Stats don't have near the significance. There are too many variables based on the others around you and the situation. The stat geek analysis may have some value, but they are not the be all end all.

[jetstilldeath77]

Yeah and they won the same amount of Super Bowls.

That's all I care about. If Sanchez wins us the big one, I couldn't give a single sh*t whose stats are better than his.

Exactly!! Sanchez could be 5/29 for 30 yards, but as long as we find a way to win the SB, then I'll love him forever.

[CTM]

It's football, not baseball. Stats don't have near the significance. There are too many variables based on the others around you and the situation. The stat geek analysis may have some value, but they are not the be all end all.

Stats are very good for overall unit performance and can show things other teams may exploit

[Klecko73isGod]

You really are "Hobtuse"

If you're using the Marino/O'Brien angle with me its gonna fall on deaf ears.

I don't care what Marino's W/L record was. I don't care what records he set. I care that he didn't win sh*t.

The point is WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS. And I would gladly trade a dozen losing seasons for one championship in my lifetime.

[Klecko73isGod]

Stats are objective*, eyes are not.

*Objective within thier own bias (like passer rating favorig efficiency)

Can't one make the argument that FO's attempt to contextualize their stats makes them subjective?

[The Crusher]

If you're using the Marino/O'Brien angle with me its gonna fall on deaf ears.

I don't care what Marino's W/L record was. I don't care what records he set. I care that he didn't win sh*t.

The point is WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS. And I would gladly trade a dozen losing seasons for one championship in my lifetime.

Agreed. Problem is we have neither a good enough defense or good enough running game to win with a QB that's not ready to win games for his team. Funny thing is at times this year Taco looked ready to be that guy and then 3 steps back and so on. Hopefully he is trending like he did late last year and his best football is yet to come. If he improved the same amount from regular season to post season he did last year the jets could be realistic contenders. Last two week's give a little glimmer and now we cross our fingers and hope.

[Klecko73isGod]

Agreed. Problem is we have neither a good enough defense or good enough running game to win with a QB that's not ready to win games for his team. Funny thing is at times this year Taco looked ready to be that guy and then 3 steps back and so on. Hopefully he is trending like he did late last year and his best football is yet to come. If he improved the same amount from regular season to post season he did last year the jets could be realistic contenders. Last two week's give a little glimmer and now we cross our fingers and hope.

Honestly Sal you really can't realistically ask for more when you have a 2nd year QB.

[Matt39]

Stats are objective*, eyes are not.

*Objective within thier own bias (like passer rating favorig efficiency)

These fancy stats are way more objective in baseball than they are in football. Are dropped passes(which the Jets lead the league in) incorporated into DVOA?

[#27TheDominator]

Stats are very good for overall unit performance and can show things other teams may exploit

That's true, but what on earth does it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez?

[donboyO]

That's true, but what on earth does it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez?

Freeman passes the eye test right now, if they did a redraft Freeman goes #1 and Sanchez falls to #17, not saying Mark will be a bad QB, i think he levels out as a good QB, Freeman appears to be a Stud in the making.

[Aten]

That's true, but what on earth does it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez?

Everything or nothing depending on what you'd prefer it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez. It just depends on the relative weight you assign to the fact that Freeman hasn't beaten a winning team this year and the perception that Sanchez plays big in big games as compared to the fact that Tampa has actually outscored us in games against quality opponents.

[CTM]

That's true, but what on earth does it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez?

The stat overwhelmingly favor Freeman this season, and they certainly have merit in grading individual performances. I think it's hard to argue that Sanchez has been better then Freeman this year..

[#27TheDominator]

Everything or nothing depending on what you'd prefer it have to do with Freeman v. Sanchez. It just depends on the relative weight you assign to the fact that Freeman hasn't beaten a winning team this year and the perception that Sanchez plays big in big games as compared to the fact that Tampa has actually outscored us in games against quality opponents.

Perfect example. Outscoring teams on an aggregate basis is meaningless in terms of rating a QB. The Jets may have had leads and been running clock. Scoring has as much to do with the running game, receivers, and even the defense and special team as the QB.

On a more specific note, exactly what "quality opponents" did Tampa Bay outscore us against? The Jets have actually outscored Tampa by 11. Both teams have played the Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers and Lions. The Jets have scored more than Tampa against each of those teams except Baltimore. Freeman dropped a dime on the Ravens while Sanchez could only muster 9. The Jets are 4-1 against those teams, Tampa 2-3. What other "quality" teams did Tampa play? Other than Atlanta the only teams they put points on were Seattle, Arizona and Carolina. Not exactly a who's who of NFL defenses. I'm sure you aren't referring to the 6 points they scored against the Saints. I'm feeling worse about Freeman already.

[#27TheDominator]

The stat overwhelmingly favor Freeman this season, and they certainly have merit in grading individual performances. I think it's hard to argue that Sanchez has been better then Freeman this year..

I wasn't even arguing Freeman v. Sanchez. I didn't even check the stats. I don't doubt Freeman might be a landslide better. I just think that all those fancy value stats become a little twisted in the NFL. There are too many variables and you can't account for all of them. The "eyeball" test is as good as most.

[Matt39]

I wasn't even arguing Freeman v. Sanchez. I didn't even check the stats. I don't doubt Freeman might be a landslide better. I just think that all those fancy value stats become a little twisted in the NFL. There are too many variables and you can't account for all of them. The "eyeball" test is as good as most.

They are baseball stats, which is a strictly individual sport. Football is anything but.

[The Crusher]

Honestly Sal you really can't realistically ask for more when you have a 2nd year QB.

Why not? Rex promised us more. I think it's reasonable for me to want what I'm promised. Looks to me by the off season moves and the "one year" rentals brought in I'm not the only one that expected more. I expect them to make a run and win the SUPERBOWL, anything less than that and it's the SOJ's.

I agree you can;t expect everything out of Sanchez, and I realize the defense and running game are suppose to carry this team. Not the case due to an injury here and their and lack of depth partially due to a draft with players that need more time to contribute. \

So... falls on the QB, too bad so sad. Sanchez needs to step up and shock us all. If your ok with your sophmore QB unable to produce no TD's for 9 quarters that's up to you and I applaud patience, for me "**** that",so Sanchezneeds to man the **** up and surprise us. I want to be surprised. I want to come to this board in the off season and have you tell me how wrong I was about this team and this QB. I would even post my phone number so anyone who wants to call me and tell me how wrong i was can any time they like. Excluding biscuit buttering time with Ms Crusher. I like teh biscuits.

By the way, my name is no longer Sal, I changed it to Tarzan.

[SenorGato]

The stat overwhelmingly favor Freeman this season, and they certainly have merit in grading individual performances. I think it's hard to argue that Sanchez has been better then Freeman this year..

AFC East >>> NFC South

Not to mention passing on those Ds in Florida, two domes, and blustery North Carolina.

Freeman is still insanely better than I thought he'd be too. I'm not sure that means he's a lock for a smooth sailing great career. I still think Sanchez will be fine long term, as long as he doesn't get seriously injured (*knock on wood*). Freeman is throwing up 23/6 after 10/18 and he's completing 6% more of his passes...maybe he regresses next year? What are the QB trends?

[CTM]

I wasn't even arguing Freeman v. Sanchez. I didn't even check the stats. I don't doubt Freeman might be a landslide better. I just think that all those fancy value stats become a little twisted in the NFL. There are too many variables and you can't account for all of them. The "eyeball" test is as good as most.

I think generally speaking, they'll be a better measure then the old eyeball. Particularly ones like DVOA which try and level the playign field by taking quality of opponnent, down and distance and oter factors into play. ie, it's a lot harder (and more valuable) to complete an 11 yard pass against Pitts on third and 10 in a close game, then it is to complete an 11 yard pass on 3rd and 25 against houston in a blowout.

[Aten]

Perfect example. Outscoring teams on an aggregate basis is meaningless in terms of rating a QB. The Jets may have had leads and been running clock. Scoring has as much to do with the running game, receivers, and even the defense and special team as the QB.

Exactly. And winning or losing is even more dependent on stuff other than the quarterback's individual performance. I'm not saying it's a great way of measuring Freeman's play against good teams, just a better one than only looking at Tampa's record in such games. Also, even if you assume that all of that stuff mitigates in Sanchez's favor, that probably doesn't even cumulatively count for as much as the fact that our number includes two return touchdowns to their one. I'd also point out that their offensive VOA adjustment is positive and ours negative but we all know that's going nowhere.

On a more specific note, exactly what "quality opponents" did Tampa Bay outscore us against?

The ones they played. I'm not talking about common opponents.