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Scott Dierking

Turns out Phil Hughes is just bad, not hurt

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Hey this is a bit off topic but you didn't answer my PM. You guys going to Richie's next weekend?

See the PM I just sent you about the problem with Abbie.

Num Num will have to wait.

Got it. That's crazy, hope it all works out.

Can you guys please take this exchange to PMs?

Thanks.

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Forget wins completely. Hughes threw 176 innings of very good baseball in his first year as a starter. All his peripherals bear that out.

Aside from his K/9, none of his other peripherals were better than the league average, let alone impressive.

For AL pitchers with 150+ IP last year, his BB/9, HR/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP were all below average.

Making nebulous statements regarding his performance doesn't pan out too well when the quantitative data is readily available.

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I'm too lazy to check, but I wonder what the consensus was around here regarding Matsuzaka's 2008 performance...

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What makes YOU think YOU know what league average?

Having the limited mental acumen required to export the custom data from FanGraphs to Excel to run the AVERAGE function on every column. That arduous task took all of 30 seconds, but I guess it's just easier to spout off claims based on biased observation rather than look at the actual data.

James Shields lost 15 games and had a 5.20 ERA last year with better peripherals than Hughes.

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Dice-K had probably a very lucky year in 2008. He walked a TON of hitters but didn't give up very many hits and that kept his ERA low. Dice-K has no marbles. He has the stuff, but not the guts to execute it. He pitches like a sally.

Oh, there's no probably involved.

His K/9 was good for 6th in the AL (150+ IP), but he had a league-worst BB/9 (a disgusting 5.05) and the 13th worst xFIP for qualifying pitchers. His ERA-FIP was the second largest disparity in the league behind Armando Galarraga.

In 2008, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. In four less starts last year, he was 9-6 with a 4.69 ERA with essentially the same peripherals. Interestingly enough, he was 3rd in the AL in run support in 2008 and was 4th last year.

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You really would be better served to go back to yelling at the neighborhood kids to get off your lawn and leave the saber metric "analysis" to people who have the slightest idea what they are talking about...

OK, I'll take on the task (once again).

For AL pitchers with 150+ IP last year, here are the league averages:

K/9 - 6.71

BB/9 - 2.87

HR/9 - 0.950

FIP - 4.02

xFIP - 4.07

WAR - 2.99

Here are Hughes' numbers:

K/9 - 7.45

BB/9 - 2.96

HR/9 - 1.28

FIP - 4.25

xFIP - 4.13

WAR - 2.4

As I already stated, only his K/9 was better than the league average. His BABIP and strand rates were also favorable compared to the league and his career averages.

Unless you're counting run support (a whopping 9.6 per game, by far most in the AL), what "peripherals" suggest Hughes was anything more than an average pitcher over the entire 2010 season?

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The Yankees just sent down a kid that would lead the Mets in wins.

Phil Hughes' 2010 campaign is all the proof you should need to convince the saber-naysayers that wins are the least meaningful pitching statistic when trying to gauge relative performance.

At 9.03 runs/game, Ivan Nova ranks 2nd in the AL this season, just behind Jake Arrietta.

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Statistically you might be right, but Nova has been pitching very well.

My post wasn't a knock on Nova, but simply a retort to Max's Tx-esque troll job.

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They have almost an identical number of appearances and IP, so the comparison is pretty easy to make.

Aside from his (fantastic) K/9 and the fact that he has a better record (something I put zero stock in for RP's), there is absolutely nothing that suggests that Robertson has been the better pitcher over the course of their respective careers. That's not to say that Robertson hasn't been excellent this year, but he still needs to work on his control (as evidenced by his poor BB/9 and high number of wild pitches).

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Yeah. Invented. Back when I was a kid we had to add up the walks and hits divide by innings pitched all by ourselves!

Good thing you had a slide rule to do the heavy lifting.

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I don't think the Comodore 64 could handle such sophisticated calculations.

BS. Micro League Baseball is one of the greatest sports sims of all-time.

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Phillip Humber is real good

Yes, I'm sure the Mets rue the day that they traded Phil Humber - who is now on his third team since landing in Minnesota - for the best pitcher in baseball at that time.

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So is Ian Kennedy, but what does that have to do with Hughes (other than the Yankees getting rid of the wrong guy)?

Damnit. I like your response better.

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The problem is the Yankees are stacked with set up guys so not sure what his other options could be.

Staff writer at JetNation.com?

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...and that Micah Owings was the next big thing. Dude's been bouncing around as a middle reliever for about five years now.

Dude sure can hit, though...

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WHere is John Maine these days?

Given the injuries to Sabathia and Pettitte and ineffectiveness/injury issues with Banuelos and Betances, I'd say he's probably on his way to being in the Yankees' rotation.

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9 wins before the all star break, not too bad though.

Again, wins are a meaningless indicator of performance.

His peripherals are improved from last year... K/9 is up while BB/9 is down, which is always positive. His HR/FB ratio is almost 50% above his career average, so it's likely that it'll normalize somewhat, but in the end, he's looking more like an average pitcher instead of the abomination he was last year. As for his wins, swap his run support with Kuroda's and he's a sub-.500 pitcher this year.

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