Monty Hall problem

[CTM]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the other two, goats. You win the prize that's behind the door you have slected. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors and will open one with a goat everytime, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to switch doors?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice to door #2?

[T0mShane]

To clarify, why does he open Door #3 if you picked Door #1 again?

[CTM]

To clarify, why does he open Door #3 if you picked Door #1 again?

He's eliminating a bad door and allowing you to switch, if you'd like. Now you know that the car is either behind door #1 (which you already have) or door #2.. which you can switch to

[Integrity28]

I like goats. I'd pick the goat door.

[T0mShane]

Alright. I failed math every year I took it, but here goes:

You start out with a 33.3% probability of picking the car.

One of those choices is randomly eliminated by an omniscient source, leaving you with two options and, thus, a 50% chance of picking correctly.

All Monty did was, at worst, choose the OTHER wrong door.

Regardless of whether or not you change your vote, your probability is still at 50%.

I will answer NO, it does not help you to switch your vote.

Now, tell me why I'm a moron.

[Sharrow]

Alright. I failed math every year I took it, but here goes:

You start out with a 33.3% probability of picking the car.

One of those choices is randomly eliminated by an omniscient source, leaving you with two options and, thus, a 50% chance of picking correctly.

All Monty did was, at worst, choose the OTHER wrong door.

Regardless of whether or not you change your vote, your probability is still at 50%.

I will answer NO, it does not help you to switch your vote.

Now, tell me why I'm a moron.

Your parents were morons?

[The Crusher]

I like goats. I'd pick the goat door.

I'm with monkey. Already got cars and gas is expensive. GMG

One kid goat

1 stick of butter, we prefer unsalted butter for the sweet taste

2 cloves of fresh garlic, minced

1 Teaspoon Salt Juice of one lime

1 Tablespoon Soy Sauce

1 Tablespoon Worcestershire Sauce

1 Tablespoon Celery Salt

1/2 Teaspoon each, Rosemary, Basil, Savory and Oregano

1/2 Teaspoon Black Pepper

[CTM]

I'm with monkey. Already got cars and gas is expensive. GMG

One kid goat

1 stick of butter, we prefer unsalted butter for the sweet taste

2 cloves of fresh garlic, minced

1 Teaspoon Salt Juice of one lime

1 Tablespoon Soy Sauce

1 Tablespoon Worcestershire Sauce

1 Tablespoon Celery Salt

1/2 Teaspoon each, Rosemary, Basil, Savory and Oregano

1/2 Teaspoon Black Pepper

the car is filled with twinkees!

[Jets Voice of Reason]

the car is filled with twinkees!

Then he'll just smell his way to the right door.

[T0mShane]

Your parents were morons?

Statistically, I still had a chance at genius despite that fact, you bastard.

[CTM]

Then he'll just smell his way to the right door.

either that or have a psychotic break of some sort from being that close to so much hydrogenated oils; and toss the host aside, rip down the doors, punch a whole in the car window like fatzilla

[The Crusher]

the car is filled with twinkees!

Leaving a detail like that out when talking with a fatman can get you killed.

[The Crusher]

Then he'll just smell his way to the right door.

I could smell my way to the goat too. I had a ruff time dating in high school./

[#27TheDominator]

I'm with monkey. Already got cars and gas is expensive. GMG

One kid goat

1 stick of butter, we prefer unsalted butter for the sweet taste

2 cloves of fresh garlic, minced

1 Teaspoon Salt Juice of one lime

1 Tablespoon Soy Sauce

1 Tablespoon Worcestershire Sauce

1 Tablespoon Celery Salt

1/2 Teaspoon each, Rosemary, Basil, Savory and Oregano

1/2 Teaspoon Black Pepper

How will you keep your lawn trimmed?

[The Crusher]

How will you keep your lawn trimmed?

Kinda personal no?

[CTM]

Alright. I failed math every year I took it, but here goes:

You start out with a 33.3% probability of picking the car.

One of those choices is randomly eliminated by an omniscient source, leaving you with two options and, thus, a 50% chance of picking correctly.

All Monty did was, at worst, choose the OTHER wrong door.

Regardless of whether or not you change your vote, your probability is still at 50%.

I will answer NO, it does not help you to switch your vote.

Now, tell me why I'm a moron.

anyway, the correct choice is to switch. Door #2 has a 66.7% chance of containing the car, door #1 is the original 33%

[CTM]

Kinda personal no?

i woukd've gone with gross..

do fupa's even grow lawn?

[Klecko73isGod]

He's eliminating a bad door and allowing you to switch, if you'd like. Now you know that the car is either behind door #1 (which you already have) or door #2.. which you can switch to

Now, at this point, isn't it customary for me to be offered some kind of guaranteed cash incentive, like say... $1500.00, as a back up to the risk of being stuck with Crusher's goat?

[The Crusher]

i woukd've gone with gross..

do fupa's even grow lawn?

Look for yourself.

[The Crusher]

Now, at this point, isn't it customary for me to be offered some kind of guaranteed cash incentive, like say... $1500.00, as a back up to the risk of being stuck with Crusher's goat?

My goats name is Penny.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

anyway, the correct choice is to switch. Door #2 has a 66.7% chance of containing the car, door #1 is the original 33%

To me it's easier if you put yourself in the contestant situation in the scenario.

Staying with the original pick:

-Randomly choosing 1 of 3 doors and sticking with it no matter what means you have 33% chance of winning.

Switching doors:

-If your initial choice is incorrect (66% chance of happening) you will win the car if you switch doors.

-If your initial choice contains the car (33% chance of happening) you will lose the car by switching.

Because you are more likely to choose the incorrect door in your initial pick, it's more advantageous to switch to increase your chances of winning.

[T0mShane]

anyway, the correct choice is to switch. Door #2 has a 66.7% chance of containing the car, door #1 is the original 33%

To me it's easier if you put yourself in the contestant situation in the scenario.

Staying with the original pick:

-Randomly choosing 1 of 3 doors and sticking with it no matter what means you have 33% chance of winning.

Switching doors:

-If your initial choice is incorrect (66% chance of happening) you will win the car if you switch doors.

-If your initial choice contains the car (33% chance of happening) you will lose the car by switching.

Because you are more likely to choose the incorrect door in your initial pick, it's more advantageous to switch to increase your chances of winning.

I was an English major. FU both.

[CTM]

i has sad that the monkey chooses not to argue this... you'd be surprised how many people believe you're choice is 50/50

[Jetsfan80]

I was an English major. FU both.

This explains a lot.

[WWWWombat]

I remember they had a problem like this on that show Numb3rs.

[T0mShane]

i has sad that the monkey chooses not to argue this... you'd be surprised how many people believe you're choice is 50/50

I'll be honest. I don't have the capacity to understand why it's not 50/50. My mind doesn't work. That way.

[T0mShane]

This explains a lot.

The fact that I'm underemployed and miserable in life?

[Jetsfan80]

I'll be honest. I don't have the capacity to understand why it's not 50/50. My mind doesn't work. That way.

Maybe Kevin Spacey, and some other guy, can explain it better?

[Dan.]

I always think everything is 50-50, lol. Either it happens or it doesn't. JVOR hates talking about probability with me.

However, we just tried this out using 3 Easter eggs and recorded the results, and surprisingly it worked out to be exactly the percentages you guys said.

Yeah, that's our quality alone time.

[CTM]

I always think everything is 50-50, lol. Either it happens or it doesn't. JVOR hates talking about probability with me.

However, we just tried this out using 3 Easter eggs and recorded the results, and surprisingly it worked out to be exactly the percentages you guys said.

Yeah, that's our quality alone time.

lol..

a good way to think about it is to expand the doors to 100... you pick one, host clears 98 "bad" doors and then offers the switch to you..

but seriously, this cropped up on another message board recently, and went to over 500+ posts with heated debates. When the problem orginally appeared, actual mathematicians debated it strongly

[Dan.]

lol..

a good way to think about it is to expand the doors to 100... you pick one, host clears 98 "bad" doors and then offers the switch to you..

but seriously, this cropped up on another message board recently, and went to over 500+ posts with heated debates. When the problem orginally appeared, actual mathematicians debated it strongly

I would need too many Easter eggs. I feel like I almost understand you, though. Haha.

[Dan.]

Is this kind of like that show with the ladies who hold suitcases? Lol. If so, CTM should go on that show.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

lol..

a good way to think about it is to expand the doors to 100... you pick one, host clears 98 "bad" doors and then offers the switch to you..

but seriously, this cropped up on another message board recently, and went to over 500+ posts with heated debates. When the problem orginally appeared, actual mathematicians debated it strongly

I've tried explaining probability to her before. It hasn't been pretty. I think we've made progress, but I can't tell because whenever I mention something related to percentages she prefaces it with "okay, I'll play your 'game'"

[Integrity28]

i has sad that the monkey chooses not to argue this... you'd be surprised how many people believe you're choice is 50/50

I actually knew what it was... but its funnier to post stupid things about goats, cause you are a doosh.

[CTM]

I've tried explaining probability to her before. It hasn't been pretty. I think we've made progress, but I can't tell because whenever I mention something related to percentages she prefaces it with "okay, I'll play your 'game'"

out of rep.. but lol..

I actually just bought a book on statistics/probability for a refresher, writing a predictive marketing application and I'm realizing how much i've forgotten outside of the basics..