Monty Hall problem

[CTM]

I actually knew what it was... but its funnier to post stupid things about goats, cause you are a doosh.

I don't believe it for a second

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Is this kind of like that show with the ladies who hold suitcases? Lol. If so, CTM should go on that show.

Evolution of the game show:

Quiz Show--> Jeopardy --> Are you smarter than a 5th grader---> Deal or no deal

[Dan.]

I've tried explaining probability to her before. It hasn't been pretty. I think we've made progress, but I can't tell because whenever I mention something related to percentages she prefaces it with "okay, I'll play your 'game'"

Lol, it's like negative numbers. -18? Wtf is that. But I can play your game by your silly made-up rules. I aced all my math tests in school. It just doesn't always make sense to me in real-life scenarios.

[Integrity28]

I don't believe it for a second

I'm sure you don't.

I actually excelled in Math when I was in school, plus I've seen the movie 21... so yeah, you suck at this.

[CTM]

Is this kind of like that show with the ladies who hold suitcases? Lol. If so, CTM should go on that show.

WHat are the exact rules?

It really depends on whether or not you had to "survive" subsequent rounds and were subjected to continuous probability..

for instance, if the host had no idea where the car was and also had a 33%chance of finding it when he opened a door, the odds would be 50/50.. that's the key difference

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I'm sure you don't.

I actually excelled in Math when I was in school, plus I've seen the movie 21... so yeah, you suck at this.

[CTM]

I'm sure you don't.

I actually excelled in Math when I was in school, plus I've seen the movie 21... so yeah, you suck at this.

lol, getting A's while taking grade school level math in monkey college isn't really "excelling"

[Dan.]

WHat are the exact rules?

It really depends on whether or not you had to "survive" subsequent rounds and were subjected to continuous probability..

for instance, if the host had no idea where the car was and also had a 33%chance of finding it when he opened a door, the odds would be 50/50.. that's the key difference

I've only seen 2 episodes, a while ago. But I think you start off by choosing one suitcase (all of the suitcases have different amounts of money inside, ranging from one cent to one million dollars), and as you go along, you have to eliminate suitcases. As you eliminate them, I guess the chance of your suitcase being the $1,000,000 suitcase generally goes up, so this creepy dude tries to buy you off along the way. His offer is in some way related to the probability of which amount your suitcase holds.

Not sure if that was an accurate description, but I'm pretty sure you would be able to win.

Also I would like for someone to teach me exactly how the internet works because that's something else JVOR has tried many times and failed to do. I mean, I understand how to use the internet. But it's kind of this magical thing that has no explanation. Lol.

[Dan.]

Oh and at the end I think they offer you the chance to switch your suitcase with the final remaining suitcase.

[Dan.]

lol, getting A's while taking grade school level math in monkey college isn't really "excelling"

LOL would you believe they skipped me a grade in math because I won all the math contests at our school and got 100 on everything. I always felt like I was tricking them, though. Give me your dumb rules to your silly game and I can fake my way through it.

[CTM]

I've only seen 2 episodes, a while ago. But I think you start off by choosing one suitcase (all of the suitcases have different amounts of money inside, ranging from one cent to one million dollars), and as you go along, you have to eliminate suitcases. As you eliminate them, I guess the chance of your suitcase being the $1,000,000 suitcase generally goes up, so this creepy dude tries to buy you off along the way. His offer is in some way related to the probability of which amount your suitcase holds.

Not sure if that was an accurate description, but I'm pretty sure you would be able to win.

Also I would like for someone to teach me exactly how the internet works because that's something else JVOR has tried many times and failed to do. I mean, I understand how to use the internet. But it's kind of this magical thing that has no explanation. Lol.

yeah, then probably no tricks in that one. They probably calculate the probability exactly and then shave 10-20% off.. if cases are openned along the way, then it's subjected to continuous probability and changes each round..

like think about cards versus flipping a coin.. if you flip 4 heads in a row, the odds that the next flip will be heads is 50/50.. the coin has no memory.. on the other hand, take a deck of cards, and burn each card you turn over, if you turn over a 10, the odds of the next card being a 10 will be less then before cause there's 1 less 10 in the deck

re: the internet... that's kind of a broad question.. it's really just a huge hardware network with tons of disparate software running it on, that's governed by standards (loosely in some casses)

[CTM]

LOL would you believe they skipped me a grade in math because I won all the math contests at our school and got 100 on everything. I always felt like I was tricking them, though. Give me your dumb rules to your silly game and I can fake my way through it.

i see what's goign on here.. you're actually smarter then jvor and trying to make him feel masculine by pretending not to be

[The Crusher]

yeah, then probably no tricks in that one. They probably calculate the probability exactly and then shave 10-20% off.. if cases are openned along the way, then it's subjected to continuous probability and changes each round..

like think about cards versus flipping a coin.. if you flip 4 heads in a row, the odds that the next flip will be heads is 50/50.. the coin has no memory.. on the other hand, take a deck of cards, and burn each card you turn over, if you turn over a 10, the odds of the next card being a 10 will be less then before cause there's 1 less 10 in the deck

re: the internet... that's kind of a broad question.. it's really just a huge hardware network with tons of disparate software running it on, that's governed by standards (loosely in some casses)

Forgot the name of the movie bout the dudes that did that in Vegas. amazing stuff. If I ever had the chance to get my brain off the daily rigors of life love to learn to count cards. I actually fare very well playing single deck blackjack, but after the second deck is added my head locks up. An entire chute would take alot of focus. Be a very cool thing to do though.

[Dan.]

yeah, then probably no tricks in that one. They probably calculate the probability exactly and then shave 10-20% off.. if cases are openned along the way, then it's subjected to continuous probability and changes each round..

like think about cards versus flipping a coin.. if you flip 4 heads in a row, the odds that the next flip will be heads is 50/50.. the coin has no memory.. on the other hand, take a deck of cards, and burn each card you turn over, if you turn over a 10, the odds of the next card being a 10 will be less then before cause there's 1 less 10 in the deck

re: the internet... that's kind of a broad question.. it's really just a huge hardware network with tons of disparate software running it on, that's governed by standards (loosely in some casses)

So do you think you would win?

What I don't understand about the internet is how I can push buttons on my computer and it shows up on someone else's computer across the world.

[Dan.]

i see what's goign on here.. you're actually smarter then jvor and trying to make him feel masculine by pretending not to be

Lol I'm only good at certain things. I solve my sudokus in record time, in marker, bitches!! Hehe ... also throughout school I had the incentive of getting 100 on everything so I wouldn't get the silent treatment from my mom when I got home.

The real smart ones here are Sharrow and Mr. Tom Shane, I believe.

[CTM]

Forgot the name of the movie bout the dudes that did that in Vegas. amazing stuff. If I ever had the chance to get my brain off the daily rigors of life love to learn to count cards. I actually fare very well playing single deck blackjack, but after the second deck is added my head locks up. An entire chute would take alot of focus. Be a very cool thing to do though.

a basic count is pretty simple, just +1 for 2-6, 0 for 7-9 and -1 for 10 -A

the higher the count the better for you..

but seriously in order to gain a real advantage you need to alter betting levels, which playing alone will absolutely get you caught, and playing as a team makes it become work and they catch you eventually anyway.. i've counted in casinos, and always keep a rough count in my head for big hands i find myself in

[WWWWombat]

Another thing that people have a hard time understanding is that in quantum mechanics, local hidden variable theories are incorrect.

[CTM]

So do you think you would win?

What I don't understand about the internet is how I can push buttons on my computer and it shows up on someone else's computer across the world.

so the tv/radio doesn't amaze you simliarly?

[Dan.]

so the tv/radio doesn't amaze you simliarly?

Radios kind of make sense, maybe because I'm thinking there's more to the antenna than there really is. Lol. Cameras were a big thing for a while, but I think I get those now. All that stuff that happens invisibly really wows me.

[WWWWombat]

a basic count is pretty simple, just +1 for 2-6, 0 for 7-9 and -1 for 10 -A

the higher the count the better for you..

but seriously in order to gain a real advantage you need to alter betting levels, which playing alone will absolutely get you caught, and playing as a team makes it become work and they catch you eventually anyway.. i've counted in casinos, and always keep a rough count in my head for big hands i find myself in

Pro. I like the part in Bringing Down the House where the guy splits queens because the count is ridiculously high.

[CTM]

Radios kind of make sense, maybe because I'm thinking there's more to the antenna than there really is. Lol. Cameras were a big thing for a while, but I think I get those now. All that stuff that happens invisibly really wows me.

if radio makes sense why doesn't internet? it's just information.. streams of 0's and 1's that are dissassembled and assembled by hardware/software stacks to become meaningful

[Dan.]

if radio makes sense why doesn't internet? it's just information.. streams of 0's and 1's that are dissassembled and assembled by hardware/software stacks to become meaningful

I have more questions. But I will continue this via PM because I am ashamed. Lol.

[CTM]

Lol I'm only good at certain things. I solve my sudokus in record time, in marker, bitches!! Hehe ... also throughout school I had the incentive of getting 100 on everything so I wouldn't get the silent treatment from my mom when I got home.

The real smart ones here are Sharrow and Mr. Tom Shane, I believe.

I think it's clear the ape is smartest, just wait, he'll tell you himself

btw.. sudoko in marker sounds tight... are yout alking advanced puzzles or the easy ones?

[Dan.]

I think it's clear the ape is smartest, just wait, he'll tell you himself

btw.. sudoko in marker sounds tight... are yout alking advanced puzzles or the easy ones?

EXPERT. But not those super super expert ones that I've seen in only a couple of places that require you to guess on 2/3 of the numbers, lol. I think the only difference is I can keep track of certain things in my head instead of making those little notes in the corners of the boxes. I can usually remember numbers well and think ahead far enough to not have to make many guesses.

[Bleedin Green]

Part of the problem with statistics, which comes up repeatedly in debates too heavily based upon them (you fellow ACMers know what I'm talking about) is that they are always relative. I've heard this question / debate before, and the answer CTM gave is completely correct from the perspective you have it, but all you have to do is look at it from a slightly different perspective and now the statistics change. Consider that you have the same three options and as opposed to choosing one initially and then being shown an incorrect choice, you are just shown that same incorrect choice up front and then choose between the remaining. You then have two options, one being the correct one, with a clear 50-50 chance of making a correct choice at that point. But in reality, the decision you are making of one choice verses another is really no different than the original example of keeping or changing the option you picked, as you are ultimately making a choice of the same two options, other than the perspective from which you are looking at it.

Further consider that another argument can be made on the basis of the original case presented that no matter the circumstances, there will always be at least one incorrect option to present to you, which you could argue limits the statistical implications of anything outside of what the value of the item that was revealed to you was. The ****ed up part is based on the particular situation and the perspective, none of these are wrong, which is the exact reason why statistics can't be analyzed in a complete vacuum.

[WWWWombat]

I prefer the approach of not thinking too hard and figuring it out empirically.

[CTM]

EXPERT. But not those super super expert ones that I've seen in only a couple of places that require you to guess on 2/3 of the numbers, lol. I think the only difference is I can keep track of certain things in my head instead of making those little notes in the corners of the boxes. I can usually remember numbers well and think ahead far enough to not have to make many guesses.

pretty cool.. i haven't played in a long while, i wrote a computer program to solve them a few years ago just for a challange and that kind of killed any enjoyment i had lol

[Dan.]

pretty cool.. i haven't played in a long while, i wrote a computer program to solve them a few years ago just for a challange and that kind of killed any enjoyment i had lol

One of my friends did that, after spending a ton of time studying all the moves like the "x-wing" and other nonsense, lol.

Sudoku and Plants vs. Zombies are my favorite things to do before bed.

[Bleedin Green]

pretty cool.. i haven't played in a long while, i wrote a computer program to solve them a few years ago just for a challange and that kind of killed any enjoyment i had lol

What a nerd.

[Dan.]

What a nerd.

You sound jealous.

[Bleedin Green]

You sound jealous.

Ssssshhhh... honey, it's ok... the men are talking now. Why don't you go into the kitchen and whip us up something nice.

[The Crusher]

pretty cool.. i haven't played in a long while, i wrote a computer program to solve them a few years ago just for a challange and that kind of killed any enjoyment i had lol

James Bond is screwed.

[Integrity28]

i see what's goign on here.. you're actually smarter then jvor and trying to make him feel masculine by pretending not to be

Makes sense... it pretty much sums up how all of us interact with you.

[T0mShane]

The real smart ones here are Sharrow and Mr. Tom Shane, I believe.

If you took a bunch of rocks and threw them down the stairs as an infant, and then put them on a box, I would be that box of rocks.

[T0mShane]

Maybe Kevin Spacey, and some other guy, can explain it better?

Still nothing. I'm nodding, but still, nothing.