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Bad Weather, Vegas Lines and Foregone conclusions

Magnus Malax

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It seems strange that no one sees any upsets happening this weekend. I've scanned a lot of different media so far this week and it seems like everyone pretty much sees Indy, New England and Miami winning.

I think those teams should be favored. I'm not arguing otherwise but I don't see any of those three games as being gimmes.

I don't usually even check the Vegas lines unless my coworker wants my opinion on his bets. That said, I read the Jet and Dolphin lines with some surprise.

The Jets are favored by 5 and the Fish by 4. First off, home field gives you 1 1/2 and perhaps 3 1/2 if it's a tough place to play. That logic would mean to me that Vegas really doesn't think a lot of either underdog but here's the thing:

We don't know what the weather will do to the Dolphins. Have the Dolphins played in sub-freezing weather this year? They aren't scoring a lot of points. Is that going to be easier? Is Larry Johnson going to play more of a role in this game in particular? Of course, the cold could freeze Herm into submission but do we really see that game as a cakewalk? Tell you what...Pennington's shoulder isn't going to feel better in the cold and his passes are affected by wind.

Arizona is going to have a tough time in NE but you could see a scenario where it's a track meet against the NE defense and Arizona pulls it off. Unlikely, I think...but possible.

Indy is also interesting. They've had trouble with Jacksonville at J'ville over the years. The Jags have come on in recent weeks. I see that game being competitive too.

Maybe the talking heads and writers are saving their "upset specials" for Friday's columns and shows...but it seems like a fair amount of love for the Fish, Colts and Pats that is a bit premature. It just seems like few teams roll over in this league. Even Detroit hung with Indy last week into the fourth quarter.

I could be wrong...

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