No.1 With A CURSE . . . .

[Gas2No99]

Mods, you can move to the Draft board, but I thought it was an interesting read for those interested in the forum and more pertinent than an inaccurate weather report.

No. 1 With A . . . .  CURSE

Having the top overall draft pick isn't a ways a clear-cut advantage. 

By Michael Bradley - Athlon Sports

 

In the spring of 2006, Charles Casserly must have felt like someone who was offering a plate of toxic waste of d'ouevres to a room filled with party guests. the Houston GM was in the usually fortunate position of holding the top selection in the NFL Draft, thanks to the Texans' wretched 2-14 finish in 2005 that featured across-the-board incompetence.

         Most years, Casserly would have been one popular man and would have needed an extra phone or two to field offers from other teams looking to move into the No.1 position. Instead, Casserly's number was decidedly unpopular, thanks to the perceived lack of No.1 talent in the field.

         "I offered the pick around, and the only one who would talk to me was (then-Jets GM) Mike Tannenbaum, who had the No.4 pick," says Casserly, now an analyst for NFL Network. "Asked him, 'What will you give me for the pick?' He asked, 'What will you give me?"

        Thus apprised of the marshmallow-soft market for the choice, Casserly and his staff tried to decide which player to select. Their four main choices were NC State defensive end Mario Williams, Texas QB Vince Young, USC RB Reggie Bush and Virginia OT D'Brickshaw Ferguson. The Texans thought Bush was a situational player with skinny legs and potential durability problems. Young was viewed as a project with accuracy issues and inexperience reading defenses, while the Texans' brass considered Ferguson steady but unspectacular. As for Williams?

        "We felt he had greater upside," Casserly says. "There were no problems with his size or body. He could play the run and was a 60-minute player and a more complete player than the others."

         It didn't matter to Casserly that someone took out three full-page ads in the local paper encouraging the Texans to select Young, a Houston native and U. of Texas-Austin product. Or that a team sponsor ran a radio ad encouraging fans to cancel their Season Tickets if Young wasn't the choice. Background noise, every bit of it. Casserly chose Williams, who has played 10 years in the NFL, registered double-digit sacks five times and has been chosen to four ProBowls. It certainly wasn't a sexy pick, and Casserly didn't win too many fans with the decision, but it wasn't a catastrophe either. 

        Ferguson has been a three-time ProBowl fixture for the Jets on the offensive line, Bush has been a solid contributor at times from the backfield, and while Young had some moments, he was out of the league after the 2011 season. The moral? Be TRUE to your draft board. 

       "Never listen to the white noise," Casserly says. "You have to ignore all that. You have to take the best player that's there."

       Casserly and the Texans did what they considered the best possible job in the draft that lacked a clear-cut standout at the top. There was no QB who inspired Super Bowl dreams or defensive end expected to pillage the pocket for more than a decade. There were some good college players available, and the Texans had to pick the one who suited them best. So, you want the top overall pick in the draft? It isn't always a blessing. Sometimes, it's a curse.

      "Every draft is different," says ESPN analyst Bill Polian, who has been a GM for the Bills (1986-'92), Panthers (1995-'97), and the Colts (1997-2011). "You can't say, 'This guy has to justify the pick or has to be from such-and-such a position group.' You take the player that best helps the team."

      Ten years later, Tennessee has the "privilege" of owning the top pick in a draft devoid of a clear-cut No.1 overall talent. The Titans will try to find a player worthy of the status or perhaps try to trade back, hoping to find a team more interested than the Jet were in 2006.

       Maybe Tennessee will grab OSU DE Joey Bosa. Perhaps the pick will be an OT (Ronnie Stanley and Laremy Tunsil are the top two on most boards), even though the Titans selected Taylor Lewan 11th overall in 2014. Or, the Titans could identify someone else as the top overall talent in the draft (keep an eye on Oregon's DE DeForest Buckner). Whatever the case, it's unlikely the selection will be met with wild cheering from fans or high grades from the media. The player chosen could well be the "best," according to the team's draft board, but it won't have the same impact as did TB's selection of Jameis Winston last season or the Colts' choice of Andrew Luck in 2012. This will be more like Eric Fisher in 2013. Not exactly a sexy choice, but Fisher has started 43 games in the three years with the Chiefs and was part of the team's playoff run in 2015.

      "It's never easy," Polian says. "There is usually no No.1 QB. That's once in a generation. Peyton (Manning) was not a unanimous selection (in 1998). What the pundits say is not what a team's draft board says."

       It's not easy for the fans to remember Jeff George, although many can recall his disappointing play. The Rocket-Armed QB from Illinois (w/a year at Perdue on his resume) was expected to be a perennial ProBowler, and when the Atlanta Falcon put the 1990 top overall pick up for auction, there were plenty of bidders. The best package came from the Colts, who sent six-time ProBowl tackle Chris Hinton, WR Andre Rison, a 5th rounder in 1990 and a 1st rounder in 1991 to the Falcons for the right to draft George. Hinton spent four seasons as a fixture on the Falcons' OLine. "Bad Moon" Rison caught 423 passes in five years with the team, and '91 1st rounder Mike Pritchard from Colorado had 201 receptions during his three season in Atlanta. George, meanwhile, was a journeyman who feuded with coaches and played for five teams in 12 years - including, ironically, the Falcons.

      It was a mismatch of a trade and proof that even when there is a "Franchise QB" available, choosing him might not be the best move. Atlanta made a great deal trading down. Meanwhile, had Indianapolis scouted the field a little more thoroughly, it might have used the top choice of of three Hall of Fameers in the 1st round of that draft - Emmit Smith, Junior Seau (RIP), or Cortez Kennedy.

     "The misnomer about the draft is that it is not about 'Winning' the draft or getting a plyer who will just help the team," Polian says. "A first-rounder, ideally, has the skills to dominate the game or to take over the game, not matter what position the guy plays."  . . . . . . . . .  

 

      Having the first overall pick may generate excitement among fans, but it is never a guarantee of success. "It's not about winning the draft or making a selection everybody likes," Polian says. "What the public hears and sees is almost diametrically opposed to what goes on among the people who making the choice."

      That's not to say there aren't some prerequisites for the honor of being chosen before everyone else. "He should be a responsible person of high character and high football intelligence" Polian says. "In an ideal world, it would be a guy who touches the ball, such as a QB, or whom turns the ball over (defensively, or Blair Thomas in the Jets' case ). Another alternative is a left tackle."

      Since 1936, when the Eagles chose Jay BerWanger with the 1st pick in the 1st ever NFL Draft (and traded him to the Bears), 30 QBs have been taken in the top overall spot, including 16 in the last 27 years. Next up in popularity is RB with 22, although that statistic is skewed by the fact that 14 of the first 27 top choices were backs, a CLEAR indication of the NFL's predilection toward the run in the 1940s, '50s, '60s, and '70s. There have been 10 DEs chosen first, which fits well with Polians' mandate about finding a player who can "turn the ball over." The rest of the positions are represented by a few standouts, but there are two spots that have NEVER had that distinction: Guard and Cornerback. (No Tight End has been chosen, although Leon Hart in 1950 and Harry Babcock in 1953 could be considered forerunners of the position, and Billy Cannon, the No.1 pick in 1960, was drafted as a HB but later moved to TE.) . . . . . .  . 

     Because the nation is starved for football, and the regular season and playoffs last five months, something must fill the long void between the post-Super Bowl confetti storm and the next season's kickoff. The draft industry is growing, thanks to nearly insatiable desire for fans to learn whom their favorite teams will select and how well the players chosen will perform. The problem is that no matter how strong the analysis might be or how much experience those who are forecasting have, the draft remains an unscientific process. Further, those making the actual selections are paying attention to only their information and assessments. 

    "I've been on both sides of it now," Casserly says. "If you work for a team, unless you go looking for the (draft analysis), you're not going to know what people are saying. I didn't watch TV. I didn't listen to talk radio. I didn't have the time."

      "The only people I listened to were the coaches and scouts." That's not to say there is a total media blackout. Casserly admits that he paid attention to mock drafts, more to get a feel for what other teams might be looking for than to hear whom he should take. But he adds quickly that it is important not to "talk yourself into thinking a player is better than he is." Making the "right" choice at No.1 comes down to doing the hard work of evaluating players, determining a team's need and choosing the person who will best help the team. It's possible to trade down, but that doesn't happen too often - no matter how much a team might want to do it. So, if a franchise is "cursed" with the first overall pick . . . . 

       "What are you going to do, not draft anybody?" Pollen asks. "You're going to say "There is no QB here so we're relinquishing the pick?" Not likely. Tennessee sits at the top of the 2016 draft, and barring a trade, the Titans will make a choice, for better or worse. 

 

 

 

I think the Tennessee will go with the LT from ND Stanley if they can't trade down.