Mocking the mockery of the mock drafts l ESPN

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Atlanta and Oakland flipped a coin to determine which would receive the third selection in Saturday's draft. Atlanta won, and will go third. As winners of the toss, the Falcons should have been allowed to go fourth! This year, the fourth choice in the NFL draft is worth more in practical terms than the third choice. Only in America!

Recently many football pundits have begun to say that because the gentlemen chosen at the very top of the draft demand huge guaranteed payments that befoul the salary cap, teams that want to trade down from the initial picks cannot do so because few want to trade up. Since Tuesday Morning Quarterback is nothing if not self-referential -- hmmm, have I said that before? -- let me note that seven years ago, my very first mocking of mock drafts began by demonstrating that picks at the top of the draft are actually less desirable than picks that closely follow. If nothing else, this means the NFL needs a rookie salary system, a la the NBA. JaMarcus Russell, the first overall choice last year, received about the same amount of guaranteed money as LaDainian Tomlinson has in his contract, though Tomlinson is one of the league's top performers and Russell had yet to play a down. Suppose Atlanta drafts Matt Ryan in the third position; that would cost the Falcons perhaps $5 million more in guarantees than drafting Ryan in the fourth position. So if Atlanta wants Ryan, it should simply pass on its pick -- this is legal under league rules -- forcing Oakland to go third, then choose Ryan fourth. There's no chance Oakland, which just drafted Russell, will draft Ryan. There's a small chance Oakland would trade the pick to a team that would. In the main, if Atlanta wants Ryan, the Falcons would be better off to pass on the third selection and choose Ryan with the fourth.

In this regard, rumors are circulating of a proposed new trade value chart that makes the first few picks less pricey. Supposedly the new chart is being circulated by teams that hope to trade up into the first five. TMQ thinks the chart is being circulated by the Dolphins, Rams and Falcons, which hold the initial choices and want to trade down. They want to devalue their own choices so someone will make an offer for them. Only in America!

On the new trade value chart circulating, the first overall choice is worth 2,000 points instead of 3,000; the third pick worth 1,825 points instead of 2,200; after the 10th pick, values are the same as before. The old chart creates an expectation that any team trading out of the top selections will receive a bonanza in return; if a team made a deal for less than a bonanza, fans would howl. Suppose St. Louis, selecting second, wanted to trade down with Baltimore, selecting eighth. The standard chart says that to make this deal, the Ravens would need to surrender their first choice plus two second-round picks. Unless there were a Hall of Fame player at the second choice, the Rams would be much better off trading the second choice for the eighth choice and two No. 2s. The proposed new chart says that for dropping from second to eighth, St. Louis should receive just one second-round selection. That's a realistic exchange that might happen. Because the proposed chart assigns realistic values to the lottery portion of the draft, it makes trades imaginable. Thus, devaluing the top picks favors those holding those picks. Only in America! Next week we'll talk currency theory.

In other NFL news, see below for my annual fearless projection of the draft's seventh round. But first -- everyone's got a mock draft, only Tuesday Morning Quarterback annually mocks the draft:

1. Miami Dolphins: Uno the beagle, winner, Westminster Dog Show. The woeful Dolphins need some lovin' -- who doesn't love a cute, cuddly beagle? Bill Parcells worries that the hound will demand to be traded to a contender; Tuna is trying to get Uno to dip a paw in ink and step on his contract before draft day.

2. St. Louis Rams: Terrelle Pryor, quarterback, Jeannette (Pa.) High School. Unless Pryor is admitted directly to the Hall of Fame in Canton without ever actually appearing in a game.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Eliot Spitzer, former governor, New York. Falcons owner Arthur Blank explains: "Compared to Bobby Petrino, this guy is a class act."

4. Oakland Raiders: Karen Erickson, guidance counselor, Jefferson High School (Bloomington, Minn.). Barely-out-of-high-school Raiders' coach Lane Kiffin needs someone to enforce the hall-pass and snap-quiz systems he has instituted for Oakland training camp. (Jefferson was Kiffin's high school.)

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Mario Chalmers, guard, University of Kansas men's basketball. He Da Man in the Midwest! Kansas steak must make Chalmers miss the halibut he dined on growing up in Alaska. Best dinner I have ever had: Cajun-style crab-stuffed halibut at the Double Musky Inn of Girdwood, Alaska. Hey Mario: Stay in school! Stay in school!

6. Carolina Panthers (from Jets): Bob McKillop, men's basketball coach, Davidson College. Perhaps this North Carolina hero can revive the Panthers' fortunes. (Projected trade: Panthers send first and third choices in 2008, third choice in 2009, fourth and seventh selections in 2010, fourth pick in 2011, sixth choice in 2012 and an iTunes Store account password to Jets for Jersey/B's first choice in 2008, fifth choice in 2009, third selection in 2010, fifth pick in 2011, seventh choice in 2012 and a mint-condition collection of Rosemary Clooney albums.)

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco): Michael Hayden, director, Central Intelligence Agency. A perfect fit for the Patriots' program.

8. Baltimore Ravens: Trent Dilfer, quarterback, Fresno State. Dilfer won the Super Bowl for Baltimore, then just a few weeks later was let go. The football gods have been punishing the Ravens ever since.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Marc Dann, attorney general of Ohio. At this point, might as well have him on the sideline.

10. New Orleans Saints: Piyush "Bobby" Jindal, governor, Louisiana. New York now has a legally blind governor, California's governor is a former bodybuilder and former citizen of Austria, Alaska's governor is a woman who was the point guard for a high school state championship basketball team, and America's youngest governor is the 36-year-old Jindal, who was raised as a Hindu by Indian parents. (Jindal is a U.S. citizen who converted to Catholicism as an adult.) Much of the innovation in American politics is happening at the state level, and one reason is the governorship guild is no longer dominated by WASP males.

11. Buffalo Bills: Peter Berg, producer, "Friday Night Lights." Berg has kept this fabulous series alive against all odds -- maybe he is the man to keep the Bills in Buffalo.

12. Denver Broncos: Rex Tillerson, CEO, Exxon Mobil. Artificially emitted greenhouse gases are causing climate change, which in some places will mean more precipitation. Colorado skiers thank Exxon Mobil for a fabulous snow season.

13. New Jersey Jets (from Carolina): Ashley Alexandra Dupre ("Kristen"), aspiring singer. She's a Jersey girl, and the Jets need to add some star power to their game-day experience. Whether true consensual prostitution should be a crime is a matter for debate. Regardless of the answer, TMQ hopes Dupre is never prosecuted. Anyone who has had sex with Spitzer has already been punished enough!

14. Chicago Bears: Michelle Obama, Illinois lawyer. Princeton, Harvard, the University of Chicago -- let's elect her! 15. Detroit Lions: James Cayne, former CEO, Bear Stearns. He and Matt Millen will form a Mismanagement Dream Team.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Heather Mills, Beatles ex. Maybe if she poured cold water on the heads of the Cardinals, it would wake them up.

17. Minnesota Vikings: Benedict XVI, Bishop of Rome, Vicar of Jesus Christ, Successor of the Prince of the Apostles, Supreme Pontiff of the Universal Church, Primate of Italy, Archbishop and Metropolitan of the Roman Province, Sovereign of the State of the Vatican City and Servant of the Servants of God. At age 81, Benedict doesn't have much burst, but divine intervention seems the best hope for the Vikings' passing game.

18. Houston Texans: Keith Van Horn, retired NBA forward. In an elaborate deal, Texans gain salary cap space by repeatedly signing then waiving Van Horn.

19. Philadelphia Eagles: Marissa Miller, swimsuit issue cover girl. Birds tab mega-babe who wears even less than the Eagles' cheerleaders.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jeremiah Wright, retired pastor, Trinity United Church of Christ. He can deliver just the kind of halftime tirades that Jon Gruden likes.

21. Washington Redskins: Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Joe Biden, Ron Paul, Chris Dodd, Fred Thompson. Like 20 minutes ago, these dudes were treated as incredibly important by the media. Like now, would you recognize one if he sat on your lap?

22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland): Matt Damon, handsome actor. His contract will require him to become the boyfriend of Jessica Simpson. "That way if Romo calls, she'll say she has plans," Dallas scouts explain.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jacob Beam, 18th-century Kentucky distiller who formulated the recipe for the bourbon now called Jim Beam. Steely McBeam will do endorsements for Jim Beam! (Here is the whiskey's Russian Web site.)

24. Tennessee Titans: Kentwan Balmer, defensive tackle, North Carolina. Possible actual choice thrown in for variety.

25. Seattle Seahawks: Sue Payton, undersecretary, United States Air Force. She made the decision to award a multibillion-dollar aerial tanker contract to France-based Airbus rather than America's Boeing. And you know why? Airbus did a better job with its proposal! In a globalized economy, not even defense contractors can take their customers for granted. In the second round, Seahawks hope to tab Clay Bennett, owner, Seattle SuperSonics. OK, Oklahoma City is his hometown. But Bennett desperately wants his team to leave Seattle, the most beautiful city on Earth. Something does not add up here.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Chelsea Clinton, youth role model. Jack Del Rio doesn't like the press, so when reporters ask him questions, Chelsea could be there to snap, "That's none of your business!" Aside to Chelsea: The events in question led to an impeachment in the House and a trial in the Senate, which does rather seem to make the matter the public's business.

27. San Diego Chargers: The Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), supercarrier. Lead ship of the new Ford class of 100,000-ton supercarriers, this vessel will be laid down in 2009 and home-ported in San Diego when operational. At that point, there will be supercarriers named Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush. Missing from the presidential succession will be capital ships named for Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Even as someone who is often pro-military, TMQ finds repugnant this blatant Pentagon favoritism for Republicans. Gerald Ford was never elected to national office: he was appointed to the vice presidency, then became president by succession when Richard Nixon resigned. The never-elected, half-term Ford will have a supercarrier named for him while Clinton, a two-term president twice chosen by U.S. voters, does not. Aside to United States military: Your job is to defend the country, not to defend Republican fundraising.

28. Dallas Cowboys: Raul Castro, president, Cuban Council of State. In appointing his brother as his replacement, Fidel Castro said Raul was chosen strictly "on account of his own personal merits." Raul could hang around with Stephen Jones, the chief operations officer of the Cowboys and son of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. Stephen is just one of numerous high-ranking NFL front-office officials who got their positions strictly on account of their own personal merits.

29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis): Lin Li, Olympic torchbearer. As the Olympic torch arrived in San Francisco, Lin, a 1992 medalist for China, San Francisco resident and the first torchbearer for California, was for security reasons moved to an undisclosed location, where she ran an undisclosed distance in undisclosed shoes with no public witnesses present, perhaps having undisclosed thoughts. How festive!30. Green Bay Packers: Bruce Pickens, Mike Croel, Eric Swann, Charles McRae, Antone Davis, Dan McGwire, Bobby Wilson, Vinnie Clark, Stan Thomas, Randal Hill, Todd Marinovich and Mike Jones -- just a few of the players chosen ahead of Brett Favre in the 1991 draft.

31. New England Patriots. (Despite forfeiting this choice in the Spygate scandal, the Patriots select a player anyway. Bill Belichick is seen backstage at Radio City Music Hall swinging a gold watch in front of Roger Goodell while repeating, "You are getting sleepy … you are getting very sleepy … you will walk to the podium and announce a draft selection by the New England Patriots … you are getting very sleepy …")

32. New Jersey Giants. Curt Mueller, pharmacist, inventor of Stickum. From now on, Giants will spray the tops of all their helmets.

TMQ Campaign Retractions: I misspoke when saying I wrote my Super Bowl column "under sniper fire." Videotapes that surfaced on YouTube show I wrote the column in a fancy hotel while eating sandwiches. I did not have to run to a deli with my head down to get the sandwiches, they were delivered by room service. Also, when I said, "I brought peace to Ireland," what I meant to say was, "I bought souvenirs in Ireland."

I was just testing the media when I declared that al Qaeda is based in New Zealand. Because of my deep, profound national security experience, I know that Iran and Iraq are actually different countries located on another continent or something. Don't worry -- when I get confused about things like the difference between our allies and our enemies, there will always be a staffer there to whisper into my ear. And of course I know that actually, Fox News is run by Zoroastrians and MSNBC is an insurgency run by Jains.

I was not present in church the day my pastor called the United States "a revolting, pathetic, sinking, miserable, seething hellhole." If my pastor regularly used the word "seething," I would have switched to a different church.

More extensive rounds here, but I don't feel like formatting it all.

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