2015-2106 Roster Move Analysis

[varjet]

MacC was the 2015 Executive of the Year.  He and Bowles (who he did not hire) took a team that was 4-12 in 2014 and turned into a team that was 10-6 in 2015 but that did not make the playoffs.  11-5 makes the playoffs.  Focusing solely on the roster, the Jets record in 2015 was in large part due to the trades and signings of Fitz (no film), Marshall (rejuvenated), Carpenter, Revis, Skrine, Gilcrist and Harris.

Three of the 2015 losses were to the Bills (2x) and the Texans starting a 3rd string QB.   Those losses are meaningful because of Hopkins and Watkins, who Revis could not cover, and who burned the Jets.  One would think that the Jets would have adapted to those receivers and prevented the big play, but they were conceptually unable to.  Their defensive scheme, which allowed them to win 10 games against weaker competition, prevented them from covering for Revis if he could not cover.  Shockingly, the same thing is for the most part happening in 2016, except the minor changes that they have effected have completely discombobulated the safety play.  That is for the most part where we are.  On Offense, the Jets lost their power running threat, Chris Ivory.  As we know, he also peetered out in 2015, contributing to the loss against the Bills.   Add the lack of a power running threat to a year's worth of tape of Fitz, and you basically have where the offense is today.

So if MacC was the (Positive) Executive of the Year in 2015, he could be accused of being the opposite in 2016.    I am not saying that is termination worthy, but it is troubling.  He needs to refocus, and he needs to focus on developing some of the players the jury is still out on.  I agree that it takes three year to judge a draft.

in 2015, the Williams pick was obviously great, but with the other 2 on the roster, perhaps the picks were Beasley or Gurley.  The team today would be better if they had either player today.  I think the Jets have no choice now but to trade or not sign Richardson.  Devin Smith is open, and Mauldin needs to be saved.  Jarvis Harrison was cut, which is not great given that Dozier and Winters are still on the team (Idzik's OL prospects).  In 2016, Darron Lee was a solid pick,and given the number of first round QB busts and the perils of being famous in NY, I am quasi sympathetic on passing on Lynch who did not strike anyone as the sharpest knife in the drawer.  Hackenburg is still open, although some would have preferred Cook, Prescott or Brissett in the later rounds.  This is the pick that live with MacC the longest.  Jenkins seems like a long term keeper, and we will see about Brandon Shell.  He did appear to hit homeruns with the late/UDFA WRs, who should only improve with training, development and a QB who can throw the ball down the field.

But to me, the FA signings and roster maneuverings in 2015 are the most troubling, particularly when combined with the inability of the 2015 signings to provide a return in 2016.

On DL, with 3 first round picks on the roster and a developing Deon Simon, MacC signed Jarvis Jenkins (who does not really play) and Steve MacClendon (who is good but basically pushed them to a 4-3, for which they don't really have LBs).  They signed Bruce Carter, an athletic LB who does not play.  The Jets did not need resources on the DL in 2016-those signings have not improved the team,and Bruce Carter does not really play either. In retrospect, if they were looking at 2015's issues, they should have been strengthening the ability to cover WRs, but given the money already spent there, that could have been politically unpopular.

Signing Fitz for $12mm is not looking good in hindsight.  It was designed to make the team respectable in 2015, not to win long-term.  Fitz knew Woody would cave and pay him $10mm to fill seats.   Fitz was right.  If the Jets were keeping 4 QBs for a long-term strategy, a Hoyer type was the better call.

People underestimate the re-injury to Khiry Robinson.  He was going to play the Ivory role.  Don't know if the medical diligence could have been better.  Maybe the battering running back is not really a viable NFL option, given their injury history.  Forte was supposed to be a complementary/TE substitute back.  RB was not addressed appropriately.  They should consider Karlos Williams on the ASJ plan.

Clady was a great trade signing.  I think he is needed at least in 2017 until he is replaced.  Signing Ijalana and Qvale were also good moves to fill in the OL, and Carpenter appears to be contributing in 2016 as well.

So not only have the 2016 FA signings not provided much value in 2016, but many if not most of the 2015 signings are not contributing at the same level as they did in 2015.  Revis is no longer a shutdown corner, and Gilcrist appears to be a player that needs perfect star alignment to perform.  Harris has slipped, and Pryor also needs his stars aligned.  Mauldin is not even contributing in an limited role like he did last year.  

So in my view, although I like MacC and think he is on the right track, he did a good but not great job building a roster in 2015 for a temporary kick but a poor job in 2016.  For the long-term, the jury is still out but tilting negative.  This ignores the coaching in 2016, which has been very poor, but from this it would appear that the shape of the roster has made the job of coaching this team alot harder.  As usual, whenever I see short-term moves like paying 30 year CBs $70mm, I see the hand of Woody Johnson.

[Jetdawgg]

Shows the importance of roster management. The whole system is not working because of the FO issues created. We are weaker at RB, weaker at QB and weaker at player development. 

Time to play the younger QB's to evaluate them. Geno is gone next year. LB is an issue now. There was no real conversion to a 4/3 front 7. The DL has 4 DT's at this point in time. No speed rusher from the edge. Hard to really blame the issues in the secondary when the front 7 cannot bring the heat. The pressure up the middle is not consistent enough to compensate for that missing element of the speedy edge rusher. 

Ivory's loss created a huge vacuum at RB. We are severely downgraded there adding to Fitz's woes. 

Macc took a real step back here and for the most part has had everyone else take the blame. He is responsible for the configuration of this team. 

My solution would be a 4-2-5 with AA or Rontez filling in. Maybe even moving Pryor to the box more often. Jenkins would be one LB with Lee the other. 

Very difficult to coach this D right now.

[joewilly12]

24 minutes ago, Jetdawgg said:

Shows the importance of roster management. The whole system is not working because of the FO issues created. We are weaker at RB, weaker at QB and weaker at player development. 

Time to play the younger QB's to evaluate them. Geno is gone next year. LB is an issue now. There was no real conversion to a 4/3 front 7. The DL has 4 DT's at this point in time. No speed rusher from the edge. Hard to really blame the issues in the secondary when the front 7 cannot bring the heat. The pressure up the middle is not consistent enough to compensate for that missing element of the speedy edge rusher. 

Ivory's loss created a huge vacuum at RB. We are severely downgraded there adding to Fitz's woes. 

Macc took a real step back here and for the most part has had everyone else take the blame. He is responsible for the configuration of this team. 

My solution would be a 4-2-5 with AA or Rontez filling in. Maybe even moving Pryor to the box more often. Jenkins would be one LB with Lee the other. 

Very difficult to coach this D right now.

Nice post the entire team is a mess and we lack depth everywhere our defense is in shambles we seem to be playing school yard football out there.

Wake up Woody and fix this mess. 

[UnitedWhofans]

1 hour ago, varjet said:

MacC was the 2015 Executive of the Year.  He and Bowles (who he did not hire) took a team that was 4-12 in 2014 and turned into a team that was 10-6 in 2015 but that did not make the playoffs.  11-5 makes the playoffs.  Focusing solely on the roster, the Jets record in 2015 was in large part due to the trades and signings of Fitz (no film), Marshall (rejuvenated), Carpenter, Revis, Skrine, Gilcrist and Harris.

Three of the 2015 losses were to the Bills (2x) and the Texans starting a 3rd string QB.   Those losses are meaningful because of Hopkins and Watkins, who Revis could not cover, and who burned the Jets.  One would think that the Jets would have adapted to those receivers and prevented the big play, but they were conceptually unable to.  Their defensive scheme, which allowed them to win 10 games against weaker competition, prevented them from covering for Revis if he could not cover.  Shockingly, the same thing is for the most part happening in 2016, except the minor changes that they have effected have completely discombobulated the safety play.  That is for the most part where we are.  On Offense, the Jets lost their power running threat, Chris Ivory.  As we know, he also peetered out in 2015, contributing to the loss against the Bills.   Add the lack of a power running threat to a year's worth of tape of Fitz, and you basically have where the offense is today.

So if MacC was the (Positive) Executive of the Year in 2015, he could be accused of being the opposite in 2016.    I am not saying that is termination worthy, but it is troubling.  He needs to refocus, and he needs to focus on developing some of the players the jury is still out on.  I agree that it takes three year to judge a draft.

in 2015, the Williams pick was obviously great, but with the other 2 on the roster, perhaps the picks were Beasley or Gurley.  The team today would be better if they had either player today.  I think the Jets have no choice now but to trade or not sign Richardson.  Devin Smith is open, and Mauldin needs to be saved.  Jarvis Harrison was cut, which is not great given that Dozier and Winters are still on the team (Idzik's OL prospects).  In 2016, Darron Lee was a solid pick,and given the number of first round QB busts and the perils of being famous in NY, I am quasi sympathetic on passing on Lynch who did not strike anyone as the sharpest knife in the drawer.  Hackenburg is still open, although some would have preferred Cook, Prescott or Brissett in the later rounds.  This is the pick that live with MacC the longest.  Jenkins seems like a long term keeper, and we will see about Brandon Shell.  He did appear to hit homeruns with the late/UDFA WRs, who should only improve with training, development and a QB who can throw the ball down the field.

But to me, the FA signings and roster maneuverings in 2015 are the most troubling, particularly when combined with the inability of the 2015 signings to provide a return in 2016.

On DL, with 3 first round picks on the roster and a developing Deon Simon, MacC signed Jarvis Jenkins (who does not really play) and Steve MacClendon (who is good but basically pushed them to a 4-3, for which they don't really have LBs).  They signed Bruce Carter, an athletic LB who does not play.  The Jets did not need resources on the DL in 2016-those signings have not improved the team,and Bruce Carter does not really play either. In retrospect, if they were looking at 2015's issues, they should have been strengthening the ability to cover WRs, but given the money already spent there, that could have been politically unpopular.

Signing Fitz for $12mm is not looking good in hindsight.  It was designed to make the team respectable in 2015, not to win long-term.  Fitz knew Woody would cave and pay him $10mm to fill seats.   Fitz was right.  If the Jets were keeping 4 QBs for a long-term strategy, a Hoyer type was the better call.

People underestimate the re-injury to Khiry Robinson.  He was going to play the Ivory role.  Don't know if the medical diligence could have been better.  Maybe the battering running back is not really a viable NFL option, given their injury history.  Forte was supposed to be a complementary/TE substitute back.  RB was not addressed appropriately.  They should consider Karlos Williams on the ASJ plan.

Clady was a great trade signing.  I think he is needed at least in 2017 until he is replaced.  Signing Ijalana and Qvale were also good moves to fill in the OL, and Carpenter appears to be contributing in 2016 as well.

So not only have the 2016 FA signings not provided much value in 2016, but many if not most of the 2015 signings are not contributing at the same level as they did in 2015.  Revis is no longer a shutdown corner, and Gilcrist appears to be a player that needs perfect star alignment to perform.  Harris has slipped, and Pryor also needs his stars aligned.  Mauldin is not even contributing in an limited role like he did last year.  

So in my view, although I like MacC and think he is on the right track, he did a good but not great job building a roster in 2015 for a temporary kick but a poor job in 2016.  For the long-term, the jury is still out but tilting negative.  This ignores the coaching in 2016, which has been very poor, but from this it would appear that the shape of the roster has made the job of coaching this team alot harder.  As usual, whenever I see short-term moves like paying 30 year CBs $70mm, I see the hand of Woody Johnson.

I think Macc's goal was to keep the team at roughly the same place while his draft picks develop for this year. 

To be competitive and rebuild at the same time.

Unfortunately, the 10 win season got everybody's hopes up and Ryan Fitzpatrick had a great season and everyone wanted him back.

This year was meaningless anyway. Even if the roster was playing well, do you think they were going to go to the Super Bowl? Of course not. SO this is a year for development. Unfortunately, NY'ers cant accept a full rebuild and wont come to games. 

So his plan is correct. Now we will have to see if his younger players develop. So far they are okay

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

I think Macc's goal was to keep the team at roughly the same place while his draft picks develop for this year. 

To be competitive and rebuild at the same time.

Unfortunately, the 10 win season got everybody's hopes up and Ryan Fitzpatrick had a great season and everyone wanted him back.

This year was meaningless anyway. Even if the roster was playing well, do you think they were going to go to the Super Bowl? Of course not. SO this is a year for development. Unfortunately, NY'ers cant accept a full rebuild and wont come to games. 

So his plan is correct. Now we will have to see if his younger players develop. So far they are okay

The WR's havent been nothing great those that have consistently played and arent  injured. 

The 2nd round QB is still at grooming school.

Lee has been decent but compared to the rest of the D that isn't saying much. 

Jenkins and Mauldin arent all that good. 

Burris not sure yet. 

RB is the ghost position on this team we trot out 2 slugs and hope for 1000 yard rushing seasons from both of them. 

Yes we are 1-4 

[UnitedWhofans]

7 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

The WR's havent been nothing great those that have consistently played and arent  injured. 

The 2nd round QB is still at grooming school.

Lee has been decent but compared to the rest of the D that isn't saying much. 

Jenkins and Mauldin arent all that good. 

Burris not sure yet. 

RB is the ghost position on this team we trot out 2 slugs and hope for 1000 yard rushing seasons from both of them. 

Yes we are 1-4 

I disagree on Jenkins. He made some plays against Pittsburgh. 

Already seeing Peake and Anderson catching some passes. 

WIth all of these players, as they get more playing time, we will begin to see what they can do.

Powell is not a slug.

I blame Mauldin on the coaches. They got him to bulk up (DUMB)