The Jets will look for another strong performance from Chad Pennington on Sunday

[SoFlaJets]

Buffalo no pushover on defense

Jets must stay with passing game to defeat Bills

By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv

(AP)

It's right there for the Jets to take. Forget the records of their remaining opponents, a stat beaten to death even before the final whistle on Sunday. Remember instead that football is a simple game. The team with the best QB usually wins. This week, it's Chad Pennington vs. J.P. Losman. Game over, right?

Some caveats apply. You can make up for a shortfall at the QB position by playing lights-out pass defense. And the Bills do rank better in the all important passing stat of sack-adjusted yards allowed per pass attempt (YPA, which is always sack adjusted when you see it here).

But something has been lost in the all the noise about the resurgent Chad Pennington and the Jets passing game (via more intermediate passing, as I advised was statistically warranted prior to the breakouts against Houston and in Green Bay). As good as the Jets pass offense has been of late, the pass defense has been better. And it's been better longer. Beginning in the loss at Cleveland, the Jets YPA allowed per game is 4.8, 5.8, 4.8, 5.3 and 4.1. That's championship-caliber pass defense, albeit against admittedly weak opponents (only New England has been ranked in the upper half of the offensive YPA rankings during this stretch). The good news for Jets fans is that Buffalo is 26th in offensive YPA. So the Jets resurgent pass defense should again dominate.

But, hey, wasn't I taking Chad Pennington apart here mere weeks ago? No. I expressly said that there wasn't any statistical evidence that Chad Pennington couldn't make the deeper throws that are money in today's game. Jets coaching finally let go of the reigns the past two weeks. Season to date, the Jets have thrown about 18 percent of passes 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage (Pennington ranks 12th in QB rating on these throws). But that figure increased dramatically versus Houston, when about half of Pennington's passes traveled more than 10 yards from scrimmage while the Jets built the big lead.

Then, Sunday in Green Bay, over a third of the Jets' first-half passes traveled 11-to-20 yards. Yes, there was only one "deep" pass in the 22-for-29, 241-yard, two-TD, no sack, no interception first half when "deep" is defined as more than 20 air yards from scrimmage. But who cares? We know those deep balls are mostly for show. Winning passing games thrive in the second level of NFL secondaries.

Of the 10 passes Pennington threw this distance versus Green Bay, seven were complete and one other resulted in a pass interference in the end zone. If we had transported you out of December of 2002 and showed you just that half, you'd have come away convinced that Pennington fully realized the immense potential he showed as a first-year starter.

The story of this game is, "Will the Jets play-calling aggressiveness continue?"

I have strong doubts. Eric Mangini and his staff seem sharply focused on exploiting perceived weaknesses in opponents. The Texans and Packers both struggled mightily against the pass. So the ball flowed freely and often. And it didn't matter at all that the running game averaged just one lonely yard per attempt versus Houston or was mostly for show in building the 31-0 lead against the Packers.

Buffalo, however, is weak against the run, yielding 404 rushing yards the past two weeks. Even without starting CB Terrance McGee for much of the day, the Bills pass defense frustrated Chargers QB Philip Rivers. LaDanian Tomlinson made that moot with a typically huge day.

Matching up against the weaknesses of the opponent is sound coaching strategy as long as it doesn't cause you to forgo your strength. There's a lot of evidence that the Jets offense is best when it's aggressively attacking the intermediate zone of the defense with dynamic, multi-dimensional receiving threats Lavernanues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. But it seems, at times, that Mangini doesn't want the Jets to have a personality, instead preferring his team shape shift to widen whatever hole his film study reveals in the opposition. Perhaps the Bills pass defense is so bad now that you don't need Tomlinson to expose it. But if the Jets lose a slugfest this week and leave the passing game idling in the garage, sharp questions must be asked.

The differences between the respective quarterbacks is best illustrated by third-down conversion stats. While most of what you hear and read about the running game is mularkey (right now, the 10 best teams in net yards per rush attempts have a WORSE record than the 10 worst teams in net yards per rush), the importance of success on third downs is not overstated. Presently, the 10 best teams in net third down percentage (subtracting the defensive rate from the offensive rate) win 68 percent of games, the 10 worst just 39 percent. Pennington has led the Jets to the fifth-best third-down conversion percentage in football (42 percent). Losman's Bills are 31st (30 percent).

Yes, the Bills third-down defense (9th) ranks much better than the Jets' (22nd), but not of late with the Jets pass defense surging. And even in year-to-date stats, the Jets are 14th and Bills 27th in our net third-down stat.

I also always look for big angles in red zone and goal-to-go stats. Getting into the red zone is most often its own reward (net red zone possessions correlate to winning better every year than, say, net red zone TD efficiency). The Jets and Bills are moving in opposite directions of late in net red zone possessions (the Bills are 28th).

Buffalo's poor run defense really hurts them when its back is to the endzone, as it has allowed the highest percentage of TDs in goal-to-goal situations and are third highest on all red-zone possessions.

Despite the Bills' historic success in rushing the ball, that part of the offense has also struggled in 2006. Up until two weeks ago, the Bills had negative yardage on all rushing plays inside opponents' 10 yard line. And Willis McGahee is historically very poor in converting short-yardage and goal-line runs.

The most dangerous weapon Buffalo has, by far, is wide receiver Lee Evans, who can fly (two 83-yard TD receptions in one quarter versus Houston). He's 10th in targets (times thrown to, with 105 and an impressive 61 percent complete rate). But defenses have devoted a lot of attention to keeping him from getting deep.

Still, Evans can hurt the Jets very quickly and decisively if the Jets forgo the attempt at a quick knockout and find themselves in an alley fight against a team that, earlier this very season, dominated them from scrimmage to the tune of plus-210 yards.