SNY: Jets by the numbers

[Kentucky Jet]

Jets By the Numbers: Benching Chad

Salfino writes that Mangini's stubbornness is costing team

By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv analyst

Chad Pennington (above) and his inability to throw deep have Michael Salfino holding his head in frustration. (AP)

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Just as this went to press, Eric Mangini made his big decision to ride it out for at least another week with Chad Pennington. No one can accuse Mangini of having foresight. He could have pulled the trigger after the Bills loss, should have after the Giants debacle and just was pig-headed in his refusal to do so after the Eagles disaster.

The writing was on the wall. The Jets, defenseless against a very good offensive team, were very likely to lose in Cincy no matter what. And given that the Bengals are arguably more inept defensively than even the Jets, whoever was at quarterback for New York was likely to have a big statistical day.

So, Mangini's choices heading into Week 7 were A) giving your new starting QB a running start and thus salvaging a likely loss by turning it into a proper page-turner or putting yourself in a situation where you are essentially forced to bench Pennington off one of his better games.

Mangini didn't like B, so he rewrote the equation and delayed the inevitable for at least another week. This week, the Jets are likely to win and Pennington is again likely to post good stats. But this is an organization stuck in the Jersey swamps.

"Tangini" (Mangini plus GM Mike Tannenbaum) hasn't been able to get out of its own way since the second half last January in Foxboro -- sitting on a pile of salary-cap money after the free-agency period expired, trading valuable draft picks to put "finishing touches" on a team that clearly had no definable strengths, the Pete Kendall fiasco, the pointless Darrelle Revis holdout, the foolish insistence of sticking with their 3-4 scheme without the proper personnel, alienating veterans with an unusually demanding in-season practice schedule, etc.

By putting so many mistakes into one season, there's hope that this very young, inexperienced coach and GM will accelerate the learning curve and be better off for it. But that Patriots arrogance is still visible -- that sense that the Jets have a plan and are sticking to it. While the Patriots have proven to outsiders and most importantly to themselves that they know what they're doing and can thus proceed with confidence, what has this Jets coaching staff and front office proven? Like this year's Giants, they've proven that they can win 10 games if they get some breaks and play a schedule littered with QB dregs.

The mismanagement has officially reached the point of comic absurdity with Pennington again under center versus the Bills on Sunday. I'm not Monday Morning Quarterbacking this quarterback situation. I wrote last winter that the first mistake Mangini and GM Mike Tannenbaum made was naming Pennington the starting QB back in January on the heels of the playoff debacle in New England. It was clear then that Pennington lacked the skills to move the Jets forward from their charmed 2006.

Sure, Pennington fired a 45-yard (in the air) strike to Laveranues Coles for the early TD last week. But that throw was right down the middle of the field and Pennington was able to load up and really heave it. Change the geometry of that throw to the sideline and it travels only 35-to-40 yards in the air. The average NFL QB can throw the ball 65 yards down the middle and 55 yards down the sideline. We're not splitting hairs here, because this means less field for opposing defenses to defend.

Pennington also can only throw a proper out pass to the near sideline depending on where the ball is spotted. And he's even limited there, as his interception last week attests. A tiger in the Asian rainforest hunts wounded prey just like Bengals CB Jonathan Joseph hunted the lob emanating from Pennington's wounded wing in Cincinnati.

This wasn't the only play where Pennington's lack of arm strength, even on one of his better days against a terrible defense, was crippling. The turning point of the game came on the first possession of the second half, where Pennington had minimal pressure and couldn't step into a throw and thus badly missed a wide open Coles in the middle of the endzone a mere 25 yards downfield.

Even the most ardent Pennington backer can't say with a straight face that the Jets have any chance of being a dangerous team in 2008 or 2009 with him at QB. So, let's get on with it already and see if Clemens has got the goods.

The Jets are favored this week at home against the Bills by a whopping three points. They're likely to be favored just one more time this year or perhaps three if you think the oddsmakers will give them the edge at home versus the Browns (who average 32 points per game with Derek Anderson starting at QB) and at Miami in December before about 70,000 empty seats. So the Jets are likely to win anywhere from two to four games this year. This is a disaster beyond even my preseason imagination, and I was bearish on this Jets team all along.

Are there any bright spots evidenced by any meaningful statistics?

The pass protection has gotten a little better. D'Brickashaw Ferguson might not be a disaster, as he's looked average-to-slightly-above-average the past few weeks. The Jets are "up" to 21st in sack percentage allowed.

Even with Pennington's problems, this wide-receiving corps is exciting. This unit is the sole reason why the Jets are 9th in third-down percentage and 18th in yards per pass. I'd put my money on Coles in a footrace with any NFL receiver. Jerricho Cotchery is really hurt by Pennington's arm, but clearly is a talent. Even Brad Smith is intriguing. They all should be top flight for at least two or three more years and could really blossom under the strong-armed Clemens.

There's no silver lining to this dark cloud of a defense, ranked 27th to 31st in all the key places. It must be gutted or the system must change and there's about a zero chance of Mangini doing that.

Remember all that talk about how the Jets were going to play multiple fronts and confuse teams? Someone's confused, but it's not the opposition.

If I really reach, I can acknowledge that Revis is probably going to be a good player. Jonahan Vilma is the "Invisible Man" this Halloween if he can wrestle the costume away from Kerry Rhodes. Everyone else on defense should be broomed.

Prediction time: If the Jets lose this game you're looking at a one- or two-win season. Welcome to Rich Kotiteville (last Kotite reference of the season, I promise). The Bills are about as bad as the Jets everywhere, except they're slightly better versus the pass and did give a good QB (Tony Romo) fits a couple of Monday nights ago. But the Bills have absolutely no firepower on offense. They are playing around rookie QB Trent Edwards, who has badly tailed off after the impressive debut versus the Jets a few weeks ago. Coles and Cotchery should be productive.

Thomas Jones should go over 100 yards and finally score against a Bills defense ranked 29th in yard per carry allowed and 32nd in overall yards per play. It's insane that Clemens isn't helming the Jets this week, as the Redskins and Steelers await before the short week Thanksgiving in Dallas. But Stubborn Eric gets to say "I Told You So" for now with a win and a 250-yard, two-TD game from Chad heading into the bye. Regardless, the Jets season is bye-bye. Jets 27, Bills 19.

Michael Salfino is a nationally syndicated columnist and analyst.