CTM Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 Damnit. I didn't even think about that (money line on Jets). I would have taken that rather than the +5. I think I'm done for the weekend. Don't want to give any of it away. Yea, a lot of times when I like a small dog I put some on the money line and cover it + some with the spread play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 2, 2008 Share Posted November 2, 2008 hey CTM, could I get your spreadsheet as well? Sounds like a cool idea. Doing fairly well today. Got Green Beay early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 hey CTM, could I get your spreadsheet as well? Sounds like a cool idea. Doing fairly well today. Got Green Beay early. Yea, I'm out for the eveningm, but PM your email address and I'll send it over tomorrow.... Sharp money was way off on Seattle... lol Still, I cleaned up today. Miami and the Jets were my big plays and also cashed in Cinn, Baltimore with losses being TB and Seattle. (JMJ can vouch) I also hedged 1/3 of my action 2nd half Miami game and lost that on a missed FG, ate into my winnings pretty good but I was real close to winning both ends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowmoe57 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 2-1 for the week -- I guess Miami can keep up -- anyway `12-15 for the year 5-4 lock so what Jets win -- Question for the experts -- do you pay attention to the trends - they were all hot for miami this week but did not notice til I made my selection - you know what I mean -- Mia has coverd 5-1 last 6 seasons week 9 -- or 6-1 last time after SU loss I mean do they really come into play and should I really pay attention to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 sent my e-mail your way, CTM. 3-3 on my picks in this thread. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Alittle rushed this week---Then today found out about the site trueprotein which is just a wonderful site. OFFICIAL PLAYS Minnesota -4.5. Houston has played 4 straight games at home, Minny is off a bye and will be able to score on Houston. Miami +3.5. Miami is going to be able to score, and run all day while Jay Cutler see's another 3-4 defense after NE's killed the denver offense. Jason had a nice trend about Denver losing ATS in this spot/season. Indi -6. Described earlier. Revenge, Game of the year, Must win, New England very overrated, and Average IMO. Tampa -9.5--What was that stat? 33-6 in this position--Tampa can stop the run, and run the ball. They wont pull a Mangini and throw the ball everyplay. Jax -2, Tampa -2.5 Two Team Teaser. Explained earlier. Note-Stay away games. St Louis, Seattle, and Oakland are all stay away games IMO. Line movement has been shady, and theres going to be one or two upsets. Games Im not betting, just following. Line Movement plays? (No bet, but worth a look going in) Jets +5. Lets see, Early in the week everyone was on Buffalo and the line went down from 6 to 5.5, Late in the week everyone else was on Buffalo (67%) and it went down again to 5. Could there be an upset tomm? Not a bet, but it looks good for us. Tenn under 41 -Public is all over the over this game but the game went from 42.5 to 41 Colts Under 44 -Public is all over the OVER but spread went down from 45 y to 44. Horrible week. Was 14-3 coming into the week, Now down to 16-6 after this 2-3 week. First losing week of the season. Line movement play of the day was the Jets, and they won. Couldn't pull the trigger on them though. Also Line movement plays on Tenn under won, and Colts under won. There was some shady movement on Seattle, Arizona, Oakland but pretty hazy. Like Seattle line moved only .5, to 6.5 but went back to 7 on some sites by gametime. Stay away type movement IMO as you couldnt really get a grip on the movement(Changed a few times throughout the week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 RLM was 1-1. Jets covered, Seattle didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 RLM was 1-1. Jets covered, Seattle didn't. I guess it depends on what you consider significant. Seattle was back to +7 near gametime....Same as where it started. I'm not touching anything like that on a RLM play ever as I stated during the thread...... RLM of games with movement of a point, or more was 3-0 since your keeping track.(Jets, Colts/Titans Under) Plays where the favorite had the vast majority on them, but line didnt move overall (Seattle, Rams, Raiders) Dogs were 0-3/ Those games are just stay away territory to me for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 you cannot include totals. It doesn't make any sense. Everyone I have talked to who uses RLM agrees on this point. The edge is to be found on the spreads. Including totals when grading RLM skews the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 you cannot include totals. It doesn't make any sense. Everyone I have talked to who uses RLM agrees on this point. The edge is to be found on the spreads. Including totals when grading RLM skews the results. I prob wont........Have not found much research to back significant totals plays but it obv caught my eye looking at the spreads. I didn't bet either under, and just listed them as notes. Im looking at them both winning as a coincidence. In your encounters have you noticed any twist on RLM in College or the Pro's? CTM mentioned teams that run the ball better did well for a guy elsewhere for ex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 I guess it depends on what you consider significant. Seattle was back to +7 near gametime....Same as where it started. I'm not touching anything like that on a RLM play ever as I stated during the thread...... RLM of games with movement of a point, or more was 3-0 since your keeping track.(Jets, Colts/Titans Under) Plays where the favorite had the vast majority on them, but line didnt move overall (Seattle, Rams, Raiders) Dogs were 0-3/ Those games are just stay away territory to me for better or worse. Yea, just be careful with totals. I usually only factor in RLM on totals if everything else lines up (my handicap, DVOA). I normally don't like betting totals and these are the only times I pull the trigger... AS far as Seattle, over 8 of every 10 bets was coming down on Philly. The fact that the line even toyed with the huge move off the 7 figure makes it a RLM play I think.. I took Indy last night and gave back another chunk of my big day... Oh well.. Try amd make it back up tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 3, 2008 Author Share Posted November 3, 2008 Yea, just be careful with totals. I usually only factor in RLM on totals if everything else lines up (my handicap, DVOA). I normally don't like betting totals and these are the only times I pull the trigger... AS far as Seattle, over 8 of every 10 bets was coming down on Philly. The fact that the line even toyed with the huge move off the 7 figure makes it a RLM play I think.. I took Indy last night and gave back another chunk of my big day... Oh well.. Try amd make it back up tonight.. Yea, I never was a fan of totals. Combine that with the lack of research about betting them(rlm) and I dont plan on betting them anymore. I took Indy too--I can not believe NE kept it that close...I guess it just shows how average Indi is. It may be wise to bet against them until Peyton is back to himself. Btw Wagerline is showing more people on Pitt tonight, while sportsbook shows the opp. Weird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Yea, I never was a fan of totals. Combine that with the lack of research about betting them(rlm) and I dont plan on betting them anymore. I took Indy too--I can not believe NE kept it that close...I guess it just shows how average Indi is. It may be wise to bet against them until Peyton is back to himself. Btw Wagerline is showing more people on Pitt tonight, while sportsbook shows the opp. Weird? The action is 50/50 for all intents and purposes imo.. Not much to learn there. DVOA shows about a 3 pts in line value on Wash, but Pitts gets Parker back who is supposed to be 100%.. Normally I'd hate to bet this game but I'll probably end up doing it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 Kerry, yisman, jmj, etc.. what are you thinking tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowmoe57 Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 no expert here but leaning towards Pitt p2.5 and the under this is a tough one to call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 3, 2008 Share Posted November 3, 2008 no expert here but leaning towards Pitt p2.5 and the under this is a tough one to call It's a coin flip imo... I'd like to tease Pittss and the under, but then I could win up in a no win situation where I need a pitts score to get the backdoor cover but that very score would be put me over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Pittsburgh is for suckers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Pittsburgh is for suckers. Share your wisdom.. I know Washington is the better team, but Pitts is getting back Parker tonight and I'm not convinced Washington is going to continue their mistake free ball.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMJ Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Kerry, yisman, jmj, etc.. what are you thinking tonight? I got Washington winning 21-13 which would be Washington and the under. I'm not taking it, but that is how I see it playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 take wash and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackout Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 the giants will beat the eagles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Kerry, yisman, jmj, etc.. what are you thinking tonight? sorry, I worked late. I didn't bet this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 4, 2008 Share Posted November 4, 2008 Pittsburgh is for suckers. Good call... sucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 6, 2008 Author Share Posted November 6, 2008 Just saw the post CTM, I didn't bet the game. -------------------------------------------------------------- Week 10 NFL RLM system(1 point threshold 1-0 since posting) College RLM system(1 point thresold 4-1 since posting) Going to check out the running games this week. Also the halftime system ill just follow elsewhere instead of doing the work. --------------------------------------------------------------- NFL Games to watch the line -Patriots(80 percent) line opened at 4, now at 3.5. -Dolphins(78 percent) line went down from 9.5 to 8.5* -Packers(80 percent) Line moved from 2.5 to 1 * -Chiefs(60 percent) Line moved from 14-16.5 -Cardinals(88 percent) line moved from 10 to 9.5 *Only one site reporting the high public percentage right now. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- College Games to Watch the line -Virginia tech -7 now -3 though the public is on VT. (The game is on tomm, so this is an official play)**The play is Maryland +3 -Fresno State -2.5 now -1 although public is on Fresno(74%) -Duke has went down a point although the public is on them. -Georgia has went down .5 although the public is on them Expect some more, it looks like some sites are down. For now we have one official play Maryland +3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFL leans -Jax -6.5--If Daunte is starting Im absolutely taking this game and will run to lock it at 6.5 -Saints +1--I like what Atlanta is doing but I think NO is the superior team here similar to my thoughts on Balt/clev last week -Panthers -9--Would anyone be surprised is Oakland gave up this week? -Balt -1--Theyll be able to score on Houston, and match up with them pretty well. -SF +10--Divisiion game, and I think Singletary will have them pumped up for the game. -Rams +8--Just a thought as the Jets offense has been medicre at best. Official Play Cleveland -3--I think they come out with a performance similar to the giant game...Quinn should inject some light, and they have been playing well. Denver 0-6 last 6 ATS, defense sucks, injuries, and Cutler has not been good against the 3-4. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 I dunno, I think I like Virginia Tech to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 6, 2008 Author Share Posted November 6, 2008 I dunno, I think I like Virginia Tech to win. 7-8 people out of 10 echo that--Thats what sucks about this system is that EVERY team you bet on looks unlikely to pull out the Win ATS. I really need to look into this running theme from CTM.....CTM what stats did he go by? is there a football outsiders for college or ways to measure running game based on opp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 The best there is is the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It's not nearly as advanced as DVOA, though, and it doesn't measure too many aspects. It breaks down overall offensive and defensive efficiency here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 after further research, I'm not touching Maryland-Virginia Tech either way. That game makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 6, 2008 Share Posted November 6, 2008 7-8 people out of 10 echo that--Thats what sucks about this system is that EVERY team you bet on looks unlikely to pull out the Win ATS. I really need to look into this running theme from CTM.....CTM what stats did he go by? is there a football outsiders for college or ways to measure running game based on opp? Kerry, here's the guy: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100276207&t=0 He doesn't seem to be having as much success this year. If you look last year he was insane: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=792166 He never released the exact details, but he gave hints if you comb through his posts. I just blindly played his picks last year - those with RLM. If it had RLM and he liked it, I double or even quadrupled the bets at times.. Made a ton last season off him, but like I said, always gave it back Saturday night, usually and then some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 The best there is is the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It's not nearly as advanced as DVOA, though, and it doesn't measure too many aspects. It breaks down overall offensive and defensive efficiency here. Thanks Yisman, this looks like it can be very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 7, 2008 Author Share Posted November 7, 2008 Kerry, here's the guy: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100276207&t=0 He doesn't seem to be having as much success this year. If you look last year he was insane: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=792166 He never released the exact details, but he gave hints if you comb through his posts. I just blindly played his picks last year - those with RLM. If it had RLM and he liked it, I double or even quadrupled the bets at times.. Made a ton last season off him, but like I said, always gave it back Saturday night, usually and then some.. Thanks CTM, this is really what this thread is about IMO. The strategy behind wagering. Is tonight a sign or what? Maryland loss btw, and college is now 4-2 on RLM plays but more importantly check out the game. Virginia tech ran for 300 yards and completed dominated the LOS, while Maryland ran for negative yards on the night......Tonights win was totally about the running game..... Edit to add---0-1 in the NFL as Cleveland lost. Watching the game, I feel real good about the bet in hindsight. Denvers defense is horrible, and had no RB. Cleveland's defense and play calling was just horrible in the second half, and the outcome of the game was just shocking. Im very happy to not be a Browns fan, and I see Crennel being fired sooner then later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Kerry, here's the guy: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100276207&t=0 He doesn't seem to be having as much success this year. If you look last year he was insane: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=792166 He never released the exact details, but he gave hints if you comb through his posts. I just blindly played his picks last year - those with RLM. If it had RLM and he liked it, I double or even quadrupled the bets at times.. Made a ton last season off him, but like I said, always gave it back Saturday night, usually and then some.. Ill be looking to revise these picks sooner rather then later, but for this week here's my straight RLM plays(4-2 so far) Marshall +8 Nebraska -1 Cincinnatti U +7 Louisiana Tech +7 Anyone else have ways of ranking the college football teams running games in any type of DVOA type manner? Yisman your link was good, but I would love to find somthing alittle more specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 8, 2008 Share Posted November 8, 2008 Ill be looking to revise these picks sooner rather then later, but for this week here's my straight RLM plays(4-2 so far) Marshall +8 Nebraska -1 Cincinnatti U +7 Louisiana Tech +7 Anyone else have ways of ranking the college football teams running games in any type of DVOA type manner? Yisman your link was good, but I would love to find somthing alittle more specific Please stop.. Cause if you continue, I will be betting on Saturdays in no time Did you poke through that guys posts? He gives away tidbits here and there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Please stop.. Cause if you continue, I will be betting on Saturdays in no time Did you poke through that guys posts? He gives away tidbits here and there.. Feel free to suggest any specific tweaks in College! Im not actually betting any plays in this thread except official NFL selections. NFL RLM plays will find there way in there soon though, and ill be using DVOA to tweak that, but college is just in the brainstorming phase. I have looked at his last 5 or 6 threads but im still pretty confused about these computer picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowmoe57 Posted November 8, 2008 Share Posted November 8, 2008 Well here goes nothing last week 2-1 lock Carolina -9.5 coming off bye week and should feast on a dismal Raiders team Patriots -4 Bills downward spiral continues with defensive injuries Baltimore pk Ravens D to pressure Rosenfelds into at least 3 TOs good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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